Obama skidding with Hispanics
posted at 2:11 pm on July 27, 2010 by Karl
Of course, the Political Wire headline for this story is “Obama Still Strong Among Hispanic Voters“:
A new AP/Univision poll finds 57% of Hispanics approve of President Obama’s job performance compared with 44% among the general population.
The AP spin is not nearly as heavy:
President Barack Obama’s once solid support among Hispanics is showing a few cracks, a troubling sign for Democrats desperate to get this critical constituency excited about helping the party hold onto Congress this fall.
***
Still, 57 percent of Hispanics approve of the president’s overall job performance compared with 44 percent among the general population in the latest AP national polling.
What neither Political Wire nor the AP report is that the previous AP/Univision poll (.pdf), conducted in May, showed 66 percent job approval for Pres. Obama. Interestingly, the two AP/Univision polls are not directly comparable. The May poll was conducted by Roper from 5/7-12, whereas the new poll was conducted by NORC over a much longer period, from 3/11-6/3. Accordingly, it is difficult to extract a short-term trend from this data.
However, the trend is quite visible in the data at Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval Center. According to Gallup, Obama’s approval numbers among Hispanics has slid from the low-to-mid-70s at the end of 2009 to the mid-50s now. (In contrast, the similar numbers for whites have not moved much outside the low-40s to high-30s.)
One thing the AP gets right is that the Dems consider Hispanics a critical constituency, in both the shorter and longer term. But given the trend, and Obama’s even more anemic numbers on whether he is meeting the needs of Hispanic voters, Dems seeking to energize this constituency have their work cut out for them. The Obama administration’s demagogy over Arizona’s immigration law boosted their ratings on some issues, but the big picture is one of skidding support.
Blowback
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I wonder if this poll has anything to do with the fact that amnesty is not on the list of things to do this year? It could make the hispanics all bent out of shape they are not getting what they want. It could also have to do with the AZ lawsuit. If AZ wins, these illegal aliens loose!
L
letget on July 27, 2010 at 2:19 PM
How Dems square that circle with the Dem anti-Catholic platform has always befuddled me.
percysunshine on July 27, 2010 at 2:37 PM
I still find it hard to believe there are cheerleaders out there, rooting, and hoping for an oppressive government? C’mon people of all backgrounds. Is this really what you want for the rest of your lives, and your childrens, and grandchildrens lives? Really???
capejasmine on July 27, 2010 at 2:43 PM
My neighborhood is 90%+ hispanic and we voted over 50% for McCain in the last election.
Everyone talks about how Texas will “turn blue” thanks to the hispanic vote, but I really think that as more Hispanics become buisness owners and/or move into the middle class, we will see this anti-Obama trend continue.
Vera on July 27, 2010 at 3:05 PM
slip sliding away…
cmsinaz on July 27, 2010 at 3:08 PM
The GOP ought to remind Hispanics that Obama could have gotten his precious immigration reform if his own party would’ve cooperated. They didn’t need even one GOP vote.
itsnotaboutme on July 27, 2010 at 3:18 PM
…and they lost all the other groups…love the predicament they’re in. Panderers all over and plantatation owners…
Schadenfreude on July 27, 2010 at 3:23 PM
It’s really hard to even wrap your mind around such a mindset, but for the Neo-Progressive crowd they either think that they can do Statism right THIS TIME, or they think they will be in charge of the oppressive apparatus – it which case, it’s all good.
Oppressive, (Neo) Progressive, it’s all the same thing.
Or maybe they’ve left the whole concept of thinking out of the equation.
Colbyjack on July 27, 2010 at 3:24 PM
Hispanics are or will be a critical constituency but obama’s got them all wrong. Because they are not white, he lumps them with the so-called black experience and the two come from very different perspectives. Hispanics are interested primarily in economic success and will do and vote for the Party that provides this. They do not see themselves as an exploited race. They see themselves as the exploiters in the realm of economic opportunity.
jeanie on July 27, 2010 at 3:34 PM
“Love on the rocks
No big surprise
Pour me a drink
And I’ll tell you some lies….”
CynicalOptimist on July 27, 2010 at 4:20 PM
Furthermore, which Hispanics are being courted? Tejanos whose families have lived in Texas for 300 year? Spanish-speaking people who are natives of Spain, Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Peru, Venezuela or other South/Central American or Caribbean countries? Portuguese-speaking people from Brazil? The French, German or Italians who moved to South America after WW II? Which of these groups are upset about border security and amnesty?
“Hispanics” are not a monolithic constituency and many factions of Hispanics don’t even like each other. The Hispanics of Miami are a far different demographic than those from NYC, Brownsville or LA. “Hispanic” means little more than the individual speaks Spanish or Portuguese or is a descendant of those who did.
obladioblada on July 27, 2010 at 4:26 PM
Forget the Arizona laws, comprehensive amnesty, etc ….
It’s the ECONOMY STUPID!!!!
Freddy on July 27, 2010 at 4:52 PM
Many Hispanic people have strong ties to the Catholic Church, and are strongly pro-life, and Obama’s “bait and switch” with pro-life Democrats on the Stupak amendment could have turned some of them off.
Some Hispanics (from South America, not Mexico) who went through the LEGAL immigration process (lots of documents and red tape) are resentful of those who snuck across the border, getting for free all the privileges they worked so hard to obtain. I know a Peruvian woman who came to America during the 1970′s, educated herself as a fashion designer, who now owns a dressmaking business. She moved her family to a mostly-white neighborhood as soon as she could afford it, is AGAINST bilingual education, and votes straight Republican, because they’re better for her business.
Not all Hispanics want amnesty for Mexican border-crossers. Some of them want a fair chance as Americans, and let the Mexican border-crossers wait in line, just as they did.
Steve Z on July 27, 2010 at 5:22 PM
Bingo!
You’re right on target… and if I may add, is not only Obama that is getting Hispanics wrong. if you pay attention to race entrepreneurs Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton you may have noticed that for a while now they been talking not only about “the black underclass”, but about the “black and brown underclass” or however they want to call them.
You see, they are trying to reach a new market, but as you say, Hispanics don’t see things that way. I was welcome into this country and I have opportunities that I’d probably never have in my homeland.
So, somebody like Jesse Jackson is going to have a really hard time convincing me that I’m a victim or that this country is unjust.
ujorge on July 27, 2010 at 10:59 PM
obladioblada,
Excellent point too. I lived for two years in central Florida, still have family and friends over there. Never, when we met with friends and family and talked politics, amnesty was never part of the conversation.
To me, this idea that amnesty for illegal immigrants is a popular issue among Hispanics is a lie. I can’t prove it and maybe is more important among Hispanics in others part of the country (such as the border states), but is not a general feeling.
Maybe is the way they conduct those pools, but it would be interesting if there was a poll where Hispanics where asked to list what they consider their most important concerns and instead of having then “choose” among a list of issues…
ujorge on July 27, 2010 at 11:07 PM
BarryO is tanking with almost every demographic over the economy. You could insert almost any poll of any group and come up with a similar story. Just have to change the reasoning based upon preconceived notions: blame it on Ocare, Cap’N Tax, Criminal Immigration, Financial Reform, Gay Wrongs, Islamic Racism. Too bad SNL is leftist, otherwise the comedy skits would be pure gold.
Robert17 on July 27, 2010 at 11:57 PM
I think that is true of the past. But this recent group of “displaced travelers” seem to be influenced by La Raza and other groups who are overly devoted to smoothing the path for drug traffickers.
There is more going on here than simply trying to improve your economic life.
I mean there is, of course, still those folks, but it is likely that even they have had to deal with the drug lords at some point in their odyssey. That brings a different type of person–we now have people willing and able to make deals with criminals.
Our government can’t control the border but the drug lords/coyotes ALWAYS get their money, or blood, to bring people here.
They are able to control who comes over our border quite well.
petunia on July 28, 2010 at 12:02 AM
As others mentioned, Bingo.
Read some research about this in a few classes.
They call it voluntary vs involuntary minorities. Its a pretty simple concept.
Voluntary minorities (Hispanics/Asians etc) chose to come to the US because they believe they can prosper and excel in the US. They have a positive view of the US.
Contrastingly, involuntary minorities (African Americans) are not here by choice (slave ships) and view the US as an exploiter. Generally, they do not view the US as friendly to them, nor do they believe they can prosper in it.
El_Terrible on July 28, 2010 at 2:48 AM
Welfare State
——————————
Maria speaks so eloquently
in Spanish, as she kisses her daddy
and runs out the door, “I will be home
soon, Papi.”
Bits of rice and shellfish litter her plate
a ring of condensation circles the bottom
of her half-drank glass of tea on the table
Papi says a prayer to the Holy Mother
as the car door slams and she is away.
He looks at the remains of dinner,
at pots, at pans, at plates and paella
and imagines the smell
if he lets them rot and runs out behind her.
WashingtonsWake on July 28, 2010 at 10:25 AM