Experts (very) slowly moving the House toward the GOP

posted at 12:37 am on June 8, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael

Are Republican fortunes in the House improving? Yes… but at a slowed rate.

After my first survey (April 6) of professional House predictions (CQ, Sabato, Cook, and others), two subsequent surveys showed a decidedly GOP friendly trend. The second survey (April 19) showed nine seats moving closer to Republicans, with one moving toward the Democrats; the third survey (May 14) showed twenty seats moving closer to Republicans, with two moving toward the Democrats.

And the fourth? A bit of a change.

15 races have moved toward Republicans, 8 have moved toward the Democrats. Rather than having a roughly 10-to-1 advantage in seat movement as seen in the previous two surveys, the GOP in the latest survey has dropped to less than a 2-to-1 advantage. What’s going on here?

Probably the biggest factor is that there haven’t been any big-name drop-outs lately. The departures of Bart Stupak (April 9) and David Obey (May 5) were probably sufficiently jarring to the political establishment to indirectly damage other candidates in surveys two and three; weaker districts looked all the weaker as the strong horses exited the campaign. For the latest survey, there weren’t any major political exits and thus no comparable, indirectly damaging factors.

It’s worth reminding ourselves that a 2-to-1 advantage in seat movement isn’t something to sneeze at, but that the momentum toward a GOP takeover has degraded should concern the libertarian/conservative crowd. There’s been plenty of bad news — the oil spill, job numbers, etc. — but none easily applicable to the House races themselves, except to describe the “environment” incumbents will find themselves the general election. If the election were held today, it’s not clear to me that the GOP would take over the House.

But note these charts:

Comparing the Top 100+ races in the second survey and the current one, the movement toward the GOP has been nuanced, but clear, and perhaps most clear in races in the 20 to 30 most-vulnerable range. These seats are likely to flip to Republicans, which may be part of the reason Larry Sabato’s current prediction for GOP gains is… 32. (CQ is thinking similarly, predicting a 29 seat GOP gain.) The GOP needs 40+* seats for a majority.

And then there’s this chart, comparing the current top 100+ races to where each district was rated back in April.

The activity is strongly weighted in the GOP’s favor, with some pretty wild swings away from Democrats and some modest swings away from Republicans. The inflection point for the wildness is right about… the 40th seat. I noted this in the analysis of the first survey, but donors and party activists need to take a long hard look at targeting seats 40 through 60 and focus on making them competitive, because if those are accessible, nearly every seat from 1 to 80 is going to be accessible. (Another reason to target seats up through 60 is…)

In short, there’s a firewall around seat 40; the GOP should flank the Democratic caucus and actively pursue the seats behind that line. For this survey (and assuming a Djou hold in HI-1), seats 40-60 are as follows.

Lots of GOP districts here. Lots of opportunities.

I still believe that Republicans can take 50+ seats in the November elections, particularly if the political environment continues to deteriorate; the administration’s ongoing failures certainly suggest that if the environment does get better, it will be despite its efforts and not due to them. The odds continue to move toward the GOP’s favor… albeit more slowly.

Addendum: The top 100 most vulnerable districts/incumbents.

1. TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) R+13
2. LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
3. AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) R+5
4. MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
5. MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
6. IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth) R+8
7. KS-3 OPEN (Moore) R+3
8. NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
9. NY-29 OPEN R+5
10. TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) R+6
11. CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
12. ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
13. AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
14. NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
15. OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
16. OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
17. VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5
18. WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan R+9
19. AR-1 OPEN (Berry) R+8
20. FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
21. IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
22. ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
23. NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
24. NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
25. PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
26. TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
27. VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
28. MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) R+3
29. MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
30. FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
31. NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
32. OH-18 Zack Space R+7
33. PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
34. SC-5 John Spratt R+7
35. VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11
36. AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
37. AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
38. AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
39. IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
40. MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
41. NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
42. OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
43. PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
44. WA-3 OPEN (Baird) D+0
45. WI-7 OPEN D+3
46. CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
47. IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
48. MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) D+5
49. PA-12 Critz R+1
50. PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
51. PA-8 Patrick Murphy D+2
52. SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
53. IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
54. NJ-3 John Adler R+1
55. NY-19 John Hall R+3
56. VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
57. CO-3 John Salazar R+5
58. FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
59. NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
60. NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
61. PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
62. TN-4 Lincoln Davis R+13
63. TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
64. WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2
65. FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
66. IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
67. NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
68. NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
69. OH-13 Betty Sutton D+5
70. PA-17 Tim Holden R+6
71. GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
72. KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
73. MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
74. NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
75. NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
76. OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
77. WV-3 Nick Rahall R+6
78. CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
79. CT-5 Christopher Murphy D+2
80. MN-1 Tim Walz R+1
81. IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
82. NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
83. WI-3 Ron Kind D+4
84. AR-4 Mike Ross R+7
85. CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
86. GA-12 John Barrow D+1
87. MS-4 R+20
88. OK-2 R+14
89. UT-2 R+15
90. CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
91. CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4
92. OH-6 Charlie Wilson R+2
93. WA-2 Rick Larsen D+3
94. KY-3 John Yarmuth D+2
95. NJ-12 Rush Holt D+5
96. CA-20 Jim Costa D+5
97. IA-1 Bruce Braley D+5
98. IL-17 D+3
99. MO-3 Russ Carnahan D+7
100. NC-2 R+2

*There are currently 177 GOP House members. For a majority (218 seats), Republicans will need 41 more seats. Three House seats are vacant: two formerly Republican, one formerly Democrat. Assuming Republicans keep their vacant seats and Democrats keep their one (thus, no “flips” among the vacancies,) Republicans will need to flip 39 other Democrat seats. So, 41 seats that Republicans don’t already retain, or, 39 seats that Republicans will have to actually flip from the last Congress into the next. (And, of course, hold all their currents seats.) Special thanks to Abby for requesting a clarification!

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