PVIMER Update: 9 Dem downgrades, 1 Dem upgrade
posted at 5:04 am on April 19, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael
Below is the latest update to the PVIMER spreadsheet I first wrote about here. I hope to update the numbers every few weeks, time permitting. The results, in chart form (click to enlarge):
As a refresher, positive numbers on the y-axis indicate better Democrat prospects while negative numbers indicate worse Democrat prospects. New to this edition: Blue mountains represent rating downgrades; blue valleys represent rating upgrades. The larger the mountain or valley, the larger the upgrade or downgrade. This week’s biggest downgrade was the seat formerly held by Bart Stupak, which dropped from Safe Democrat to Toss Up. This week’s biggest upgrade was Dennis Moore’s seat in KS-3, which CQ moved from Likely Republican to Toss Up. All ten ratings changes follow:
One note: Unless and until our various prognosticators update and synchronize their candidate lists, there’s a certain level of art that goes with these ratings. For example, Bart Stupak’s retirement has so far only been reflected in two of the four Congressional prediction lists. Thus, if I averaged all four prognosticators for this week’s PVIMER analysis of Stupak’s seat, the effect of Stupak’s exit would likely be unrepresentative of the reality there; instead, here I have averaged only the two that have added the Stupak seat to their rating lists. I’ll add more data as it becomes available.
Cross-posted at Capitol Tea
PS: If you’re from any of the districts that we’ve so far identified as in play for Republicans (complete list here,) are not currently a Green Room contributor, and would like to blog about events on the ground in the run up to the election, please contact me. The better aware we are of what’s going on in these races, the better we’ll all be able to prioritize our campaign dollars going forward. Thanks.