Green Room

PVIMER Update: 9 Dem downgrades, 1 Dem upgrade

posted at 5:04 am on April 19, 2010 by

Below is the latest update to the PVIMER spreadsheet I first wrote about here. I hope to update the numbers every few weeks, time permitting. The results, in chart form (click to enlarge):

As a refresher, positive numbers on the y-axis indicate better Democrat prospects while negative numbers indicate worse Democrat prospects. New to this edition: Blue mountains represent rating downgrades; blue valleys represent rating upgrades. The larger the mountain or valley, the larger the upgrade or downgrade. This week’s biggest downgrade was the seat formerly held by Bart Stupak, which dropped from Safe Democrat to Toss Up. This week’s biggest upgrade was Dennis Moore’s seat in KS-3, which CQ moved from Likely Republican to Toss Up. All ten ratings changes follow:

MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) 2.4 0.00 -2.4
NJ-12 Rush Holt 2.6 2.00 -0.6
FL-2 Allen Boyd 1.60 1.20 -0.4
VA-2 Glenn Nye 0.00 -0.20 -0.2
NV-3 Dina Titus 0.20 0.00 -0.2
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords 0.80 0.60 -0.2
OH-16 John Boccieri 0.80 0.60 -0.2
HI-1 OPEN 1.00 0.80 -0.2
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez 1.20 1.00 -0.2
KS-3 OPEN (Moore) -1.20 -0.80 0.4

One note: Unless and until our various prognosticators update and synchronize their candidate lists, there’s a certain level of art that goes with these ratings. For example, Bart Stupak’s retirement has so far only been reflected in two of the four Congressional prediction lists. Thus, if I averaged all four prognosticators for this week’s PVIMER analysis of Stupak’s seat, the effect of Stupak’s exit would likely be unrepresentative of the reality there; instead, here I have averaged only the two that have added the Stupak seat to their rating lists. I’ll add more data as it becomes available.

Cross-posted at Capitol Tea

PS: If you’re from any of the districts that we’ve so far identified as in play for Republicans (complete list here,) are not currently a Green Room contributor, and would like to blog about events on the ground in the run up to the election, please contact me. The better aware we are of what’s going on in these races, the better we’ll all be able to prioritize our campaign dollars going forward. Thanks.

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Im gonna predict a pick up of 56 seats for the republicans…

marktarheel on April 19, 2010 at 3:38 PM

November CANNOT come quickly enough for me

Ltlgeneral64 on April 19, 2010 at 3:44 PM

I say the GOP picks up @ 70 seats in the house and 8 in the senate

ConservativePartyNow on April 19, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Donate to HI-1. Special election in May!

txhsmom on April 19, 2010 at 3:53 PM

November CANNOT come quickly enough for me

Ltlgeneral64 on April 19, 2010 at 3:44 PM

The MSM is so in the tank for BO that I wonder if we really have a shot at taking over in November. I have never seen so much in the way of lies form the WH and eager support form the CNN, NYT, Networks and the like.

I feel like Winston Smith in “1984”.

Please Big Br“O”ther don’t put the Rat Cage on my head?

SayNo2-O on April 19, 2010 at 3:55 PM

My impression is that we’re looking at 50 seats and change, and more — possibly a lot more — if the political environment deteriorates further. Too high? Too low? Why or why not?

Patrick Ishmael on April 19, 2010 at 3:57 PM

SayNo2-O on April 19, 2010 at 3:55 PM

I really feel that Americans are waking up! Americans are mad!!

Look at the ratings for Fox News vs. CNN and MSNBC. Fox’s ratings are going up and the others are going down. That’s a sign that Americans KNOW they’ve been screwed over by the MSM.

Oink on April 19, 2010 at 4:04 PM

No, no, no. I have it on good authority from some liberal asswipes my liberal friends that the GOP is going to get their asses kicked in November because the economy is doing great and people are overjoyed about the healthcare legislation.

Jaibones on April 19, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Makes me nervous, though. I sure as hell hope the GOP can do something with a majority other than give Barry a straw man to coast to a win in 2012 with. I want to win Congress, but I really want this guy to be a one-termer. With each day that passes, I become more incredulous that my country actually turned over the reins to this man. My God, how in the hell did this happen?

Rational Thought on April 19, 2010 at 4:45 PM

Solid B+

jukin on April 19, 2010 at 4:46 PM

I just have a feeling that by November there will be more unrest with our politians and it will be better for us than we can imagine. I have never seen this much anger and disgust towards a president and congress in my lifetime. These are genuine citizens, not paid protestors or protestors on a druggie high. Virginia, NJ, and MA. All of them went Obama in 2009. Those states were the first ones to hold elections after Obama won. They were the first ones to be able to “fight” back. There will be more by November to have their say. You had better believe that there are millions of people that are not happy.

BetseyRoss on April 19, 2010 at 5:00 PM

I’m in PA-8, Patrick Murphy’s district. He won in 2006 by only 1200 votes and the incumbent he beat is running against him this year – Mike Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick will win this seat back, though Democrats are now dangling a seat on Appropriations for Murphy to try to get more businesses here to back him.

rockmom on April 19, 2010 at 5:04 PM

We should be saying “thank you” to Obama for this outcome.

HellCat on April 19, 2010 at 5:18 PM

We should be saying “thank you” to Obama for this outcome.

HellCat on April 19, 2010 at 5:18 PM

I agree, kitty cat.
Allow me.

“Hey, Obama- thanks a lot, you traitorous, lying, inept turd.”

How was that?

justltl on April 19, 2010 at 6:02 PM

I usually like to treat someone with the level of respect that they deserve.
But I thought that I would give Obama the benefit of any doubts.

justltl on April 19, 2010 at 6:05 PM

Then there’s the Rasmussen poll, showing Republicans leading the Generic Congressional Ballot 46-36. If that holds up in November, 60 or 70 seats are definitely possible. How many Democrats won by less than 10% in 2008?We need to find the right candidates against each Democrat incumbent in a vulnerable district.

Steve Z on April 19, 2010 at 6:27 PM