Green Room

Latest from the New York Senatorial Races: More Bad News for Dems

posted at 10:43 am on January 29, 2010 by

Never mind the prognosticatory powers of Punxsutawney Phil if you’re a Democrat. Predictions for a dark, cold Democrat winter are coming from New York State voters. RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog has the latest on the New York State senatorial race, in which former governor George Pataki leads both incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand and Democrat challenger Harold Ford Jr. by double digits. Pataki leads Gillibrand by a margin of 13 (his 51 percent to her 38) and Ford by a margin of 22 (54 percent to 32 percent).

The news for Ford doesn’t get any better within his own party. Polling data has him trailing Gillibrand 41% to 17%. Perhaps he spoke a little too soon when he renounced his conservative views in preparation for a run for the Senate. Or maybe he should have consulted with Scott Brown who seems increasingly to have read the political mood of Americans of late better than the Democrats.

The irony that Gillibrand was appointed to the seat Hillary Clinton vacated to run for president should not be lost on Democrats. The same pattern was reflected in the Brown victory in Massachusetts and appears poised to happen in other key races, not the least of which involves the Senate seat in Illinois that Barack Obama gave up (after sitting in it for about 35 seconds) to run for president.

The data reported here was gathered before Obama’s bizarre State of the Union address. It’s anybody’s guess how dramatically the poll numbers will shift in favor of the Republicans now that the president has effectively declared war on the American electorate.

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That is an exquisite last line. =)

Scott H on January 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

If Pataki can pick off NY. With Brown in Mass. Ayotte in NH. The Maine Twins. Castle in DE. Toomey in PA. Kirk in IL.

That would destroy that whole “Republicans are the dixiecrats” meme.

kevinkristy on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Let’s not forget NV, CO, and CA!!!

Bob in VA on January 29, 2010 at 12:02 PM

The current climate gives the NYS Republicans a chance to pick off at least two of the big three seats this November … if they get their act together. That’s always a big question mark, though as the ’94 elections showed, you don’t need a big name to win when the voters are angry, since Pataki was a virtual unknown when he decided to run for and beat Mario Cuomo in the governor’s race.

jon1979 on January 29, 2010 at 12:15 PM

NO NO NO NOT Mark Kirk!!! Crap & Tax weasel.

chelie on January 29, 2010 at 12:28 PM

I wonder how Pataki would do against Shumer.

Silverwolf on January 29, 2010 at 12:51 PM

Don’t count chickens yet. Pataki hasn’t declared as yet that I’ve heard. How many New Yorkers listened to the sotu and how many understood it. We are dealing with blue staters.

Kissmygrits on January 29, 2010 at 1:48 PM

never underestimate the ability of the new york democratic machince to stuff the ballot box.

orginally from albany, ny

RonK on January 30, 2010 at 3:09 AM

It’s too early to break out the bubbly. NY is still a tough nut to crack. The biggest threat is that Obama will continue outdancing the Pubs as he did Friday, with more of his boldfaced lies, under their own noses. At some point there is going to have to be leadership that is unafraid to plainly call BS, or all we’ve gained could be eroded by this Summer. Pataki very well could win, and my guess is that he runs.

Looking forward, I don’t think anyone likes Schumer, he’s just a hack that focuses on embedding himself in the machine, but it will take strength to beat him.

paul1149 on January 31, 2010 at 1:34 PM

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