Green Room

The Mass. Senate race… and beyond

posted at 11:45 pm on January 11, 2010 by

Whatever the polls may say (and Scott Rasmussen has more on that), the fact that the DNC is sending a senior press aide to Massachusetts to help state Attorney General Martha Coakley fend off Republican challenger Scott Brown tells the world that Democrats are worried. And that was before Brown’s million-dollar money-bomb detonated on Monday.

Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom remains that Brown has an uphill battle at best, now that Bay State Dems are mobilizing to turn out more of their base vote in this special election. Moreover, if Brown wins, it would not be much of an obstacle to Congressional Dems pushing through ObamaCare. There is not even much need for them to resort to measures like delaying Brown’s swearing-in, as the House could be strong-armed into passing the Senate bill, with promises that it will be “fixed” later, perhaps through budget reconciliation.

So what does a victory — or close loss — by Brown mean in terms of the general political landscape? Lefty bloggers see green shoots for the rightroots. TPM’s Eric Kleefeld:

Regardless of whether Brown wins or loses in this Democratic state, one thing is clear: National conservative activists have been able to take a clear interest in this race, and they could mobilize themselves for a cause in a similar way to the liberal Netroots during the Bush years.

Markos Moulitsas tweets, “Scott Brown reminds me of Paul Hackett. Like Hackett, Brown will lose, but grassroots cons learning how to better organize.”

But the implications of the Brown campaign are larger than that. Paul Hackett ran (and lost) in Ohio, a swing state. Brown is running in Blue Massachusetts, for a seat held for decades by a Kennedy. Yet his showing to date is not utterly shocking, because neither the test version of Barack Obama nor ObamaCare are very popular there, just as the bills are starting to come due. The Brown campaign highlights future political problems for national Dems that will remain, regardless of the results of the Massachusetts Senate race.

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The real canary in the coal mine will be what the Obama administration does. If Coakley starts getting the Creigh Deeds diss later this week, that means they know she’s lost. The fact that Obama isn’t going up there means that they worry about a Corzine upsurge. The only possible reason that Obama sent one of his minions is to track the polls, not to help the candidate. A Liberal Democrat that needs help holding on to a seat held by Ted Kennedy (with all of his hellacious baggage) is one candidate you don’t want to be standing next to.

If Coakley wins, she will be an even worse senator than Kerry, and Massachussetts will consign itself to senatorial irrelevance for at least a generation.

EMD on January 12, 2010 at 9:26 AM

How about some help in NC? We want David Price out and Frank Roche in. Read all about him!

http://www.rocheforcongress.com/

bloggless on January 12, 2010 at 9:28 AM

Hey Massachusetts! FREEDOM is just around the bend!

bloggless on January 12, 2010 at 9:30 AM

Kos thinks Brown is going to lose? Sweet! Based on his track record with predicting, this probably signals a Brown win.

Farmer_Joe on January 12, 2010 at 9:36 AM

we sent the Guns of Ticonderoga to Boston yesterday…..

The Capture of Fort Ticonderoga occurred on May 10, 1775 when a small force of Green Mountain Boys led by Ethan Allen and Colonel Benedict Arnold overcame a small British garrison at the fort and looted the personal belongings of the garrison. Cannons and other armaments from the fort were transported to Boston and used to fortify Dorchester Heights and break the stalemate at the Siege of Boston.
After seizing Ticonderoga, a small detachment captured the nearby Fort Crown Point on May 11. On May 18, Arnold and 50 men boldly raided Fort Saint-Jean on the Richelieu River in southern Quebec, seizing military supplies, cannons, and the largest military vessel on Lake Champlain.

Although the scope of this military action was relatively minor, it had significant strategic importance. It impeded communication between northern and southern units of the British Army, and gave the nascent Continental Army a staging ground for the invasion of Quebec later in 1775. It also involved two larger-than-life personalities in Allen and Arnold, each of whom sought to gain as much credit and honor as possible for these events.

the historical context of the Massachusetts senate race is stunning….

ted c on January 12, 2010 at 9:52 AM

POLL: Who Won Tonight’s Debate? Scott Brown vs Martha Coakley vs Joseph Kennedy: http://mittromneycentral.com/2010/01/11/poll-who-won-tonights-debate-scott-brown-vs-martha-coakley/

dnlchisholm on January 12, 2010 at 10:38 AM

If Massachusetts voters are so dissatisfied with their health care, why is Scott Brown trumpeting the fact that 98% of Mass residents are covered as part of his campaign?

While I don’t doubt that the Mass program needs sweeping adjustments to conform to fiscal realities, I am among those who think that some of its budget problems are attributable to the tanking economy and consequent declines in tax revenue.

Buy Danish on January 12, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Scott Brown will need all the help he can get. He’s fighting George Soros’ MoveOn.org, SEIU, ACORN, etc

royzer on January 12, 2010 at 11:04 AM