Green Room

2010: Alarm bells for Dems from Arkansas

posted at 12:59 am on November 17, 2009 by

Rep. Vic Snyder (D) has had it pretty easy in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District since his election in 1996. In this century, he has generally won re-election by roughly 15% margins. He ran unopposed in 2008. The Cook Political Report has considered it a “Tier 2” district leaning Democratic.

According to Public Policy Polling (PPP) — a Democratic firm — those days are over:

Snyder’s approval rating is now 42%, with 46% of voters in the district disapproving of him. He’s at a solid 75% in his own party but with independents the spread is 30/56 and with Republicans it’s just 12/75.

A lot of Snyder’s issues can probably be traced to overall feelings about his party. 54% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, 52% disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance, and 50% express the feeling that Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Additionally 55% of voters say they’re opposed to the health care bill the House passed last week with Snyder’s support, including 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Snyder seems to be bearing the brunt of a lot of animosity toward national Democrats in his district.

The practical implication of all this is that the district looks like a toss up for next year. In possible 2010 match ups Snyder leads Tim Griffin 44-43, Scott Wallace 44-42, and David Meeks 45-42. Those close margins come despite the fact that none of the Republican candidates are well known- 67% of voters have no opinion about Griffin, 75% say the same of Wallace, and 78% are ambivalent toward Meeks.

The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman sniffs that the poll “confirms what we already knew: Obama radioactive in AR.” But PPP chose AR-2 as a “test case for whether the political climate is so bad for Dems right now that districts that haven’t been in the top tier of competitiveness for years might be in play, and it looks like the answer is yes.” Moreover, PPP’s description of the internals further deflates the lefty theory that that the GOP brand is so damaged that the 2010 Congressional campaign will not end as badly for the Dems as the 1994 campaign:

Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District is a good example of this. 16% of voters there don’t like the Democrats or the Republicans. But they give all three of Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder’s potential opponents leads of 37-40 points and they give the possible Blanche Lincoln foes we tested leads of 42-43 points.

There are very few people who dislike Congressional Democrats planning to vote for them this year anyway. But there are a fair number of people who dislike Congressional Republicans who are still planning to give them a chance.

It’s not just Arkansas, either. PPP’s analysis of the Independent vote in Virginia an New Jersey suggested that bloc had two components: (1) conservative voters voters who don’t call themselves Republican; and (2) true swing voters, who may be looking for a division of power. Voters do not have to love the GOP to love gridlock. Vic Snyder didn’t hear the alarm bells from those two states. He — and other Dems in swing districts — might want to start listening to them ringing now.

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Hey Dems, that is not thunder you are hearing, but the sound of many many feet running to your opposition.

GnuBreed on November 17, 2009 at 9:04 AM

But PPP had like a double digit lead for Hoffman in their last polling…

LurkerDood on November 17, 2009 at 10:26 AM

Snyder is an arrogant tool of the leftist elites and union thugs. He needs to retire; he’s made his already.

Venusian Visitor on November 17, 2009 at 11:59 AM

Arkansas is also a kind of “poor man’s retirement state”. Lots of seniors have moved to Arkansas and that healthcare bill is a killer…

texabama on November 17, 2009 at 2:05 PM

The left has been at war with us for 40-plus years. We have not been at war with them.
Until November 3rd.
The first shots were fired in Virginia and New Jersey and even NY-23.
Next year… the deluge.

either orr on November 17, 2009 at 2:19 PM

I sent this note to one of Senator Lincoln’s possible GOP rivals.

NNNN I’m a member of the Benton Co. GOP and see you at the Tuesday evening meetings. I, like most Americans, oppose the attempted takeover of our healthcare system by the Democrat party and am quite angry at Senator
Lincoln for not taking a stand against this monstrosity. John McCain won Arkansas 59% to Obama’s 39% and Sen. Lincoln knows this. If the election were held today I’m confident the margin would be even wider. Arkansans
overwhelmingly oppose Obamacare and Sen. Lincoln knows this as well so why hasn’t she come out against it? Why is she refusing to follow the will of the majority of her constituents? I’ve written to the Wall St. Journal and
the Arkansas Democrat Gazette asking that should she vote for Obamacare and then lose her seat next year that she be investigated. The investigation should look into her finances and any post-Congressional job offers. There
can be no other reason to vote in support of the legislation except in anticipation of a promised payoff for doing so. Senator Lincoln can’t lose to a Democrat next year and so has no fear of a challenge from the Left, she
only has to concern herself with a challenge from the GOP. If she were interested in keeping her seat she would either be switching parties or vocally opposing the legislation. That she is not raises some serious questions that demand answers. I would say the same of Senator Pryor but I
think he believes that by the time he’s up for reelection the electorate will have forgotten his complicity. I will not let up in my calls for an investigation into Sen. Lincoln and will continue to demand this on every
conservative blog on which I post including Hot Air and RedState, two of the most widely trafficked conservative blogs.

I don’t know how much heat I can make her feel but I’m sure going to try.

DerKrieger on November 17, 2009 at 2:39 PM

LurkerDood on November 17, 2009 at 10:26 AM

re NY-23, Dem pollster Mark Blumenthal notes how unique the circumstances were. PPP did pretty well in VA and NJ.

Karl on November 17, 2009 at 4:51 PM

DerKrieger on November 17, 2009 at 2:39 PM

PPP is releasing numbers on Lincoln tomorrow, but their preview suggests she could be vulnerable from the Left, if the MoveOn folks wanted to try it.

Karl on November 17, 2009 at 4:54 PM

Karl on November 17, 2009 at 4:54 PM

She could be vulnerable in a Dem primary perhaps but anyone to the Left of her in the general would be doomed. AR is a conservative, Red state.

DerKrieger on November 17, 2009 at 8:37 PM

Rep. Vic Snyder (AR, D-2) represents Little Rock and as far as I can tell, has yet to speak out regarding the recruiter shooter in his district killing Pvt. William Andrew Long.

Not a word about the jihadi attack on the two Army recruiters in Arkansas. No condemnation of the heinous attack and senseless violence. No condolences for the families of the targeted men or praise for the military recruiters who have been under increasing attack on U.S. soil. No statements from the DOJ or Pentagon, either. Nothing.

Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad, 23, also known as Carlos Bledsoe, is charged with capital murder and 16 counts of terrorists acts.
— Shot from his vehicle like the jihadist D.C. sniper.
— Had a lab coat in his car like the ones the White House passed out for a photo op or SEIU members administering H1N1 shots.
— Jail convert while in Yemen. Ft. Hood mass murder Major Hasan’s email imam, Anwar al-Awlaki, is in Yemen too. And wanted by police after spending time in a Yemen jail from 2006 to late 2007. Another homegrown jihadist and possible pen-pal too?

I’m sure Attorney General Eric “Nation of Cowards” Holder isn’t helping reelection matters for Dems. here by sending KSM to NYC for testimony on that old time religion either.

FeFe on November 18, 2009 at 5:47 PM