Comments on: You can always call him stupid ex post

By: Rovin

Rovin — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:27:07 +0000

You folks seem to forget a little Monday night game between Montana (then with KC) and Elway. Elway had just marched the Broncos for a go-ahead score. As Elway’s walking towards the sidelines, he looks up at the clock and says “f**k”. That’s right, with 1:26 left on the clock Montanta took KC 90 yards and ran in his own winning TD with seconds left on the clock. I’m guessing had Shanahan been in Belichick’s shoes (under the same circumstances), he may have done the same thing to keep Montana off the field. My hats off to a great comeback for the Colts. They were getting their butts kicked for three quarters, yet pulled it off in the fourth.

By: Dollayo

Dollayo — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 02:39:46 +0000

The Colts only had 1 time out left. They would have had to go 70+ yards in 2 minuites to win. I think that the smart move in this particular case was to punt the ball and force the Colts to get into the end-zone under pressure. to make a reliable mathematical analysis you really need to look at more specialized statistics such as the history of the players on the field and the match-ups that existed that night rather than simply looking at league trends and averages. I know that Manning is a great QB who comes close to living up to all the hype but he’s not God, Belichick blew it.

By: catmman

catmman — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:57:10 +0000

You make the other team beat you.

I see the stats, but this was a bonehead call. 4th and 2 on your own 28 – you punt. The play would have driven the clock to the two minute warning.

The Colts had no time outs left to drive 70+ yards.

The last two minutes of a close football game like this with talent onb both sides of the ball, on both teams has to many variables to account for through simply stats.

Manning is a pro at the two minute drill. But you make it as hard for him as possible. giving the Colts such a short field, plus the extra play before the 2 minute warning was just stupid – stats be damned.

Belichik blew it on this one.

By: venividivici

venividivici — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:36:07 +0000

You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it.

You can’t just take the Colts probability of scoring from their own 34 in a vacuum. The Pats D was ranked pretty highly coming into the game (7th in passing D), so one would have to probably push down the Colts probability of scoring.

Also, you can’t just take the probability of a 4th and 2 conversion, because the Colts D could have anticipated the attempted play, knowing it was successful in two previous instances, thus decreasing the probability of a Patriots conversion.

I think that blogger’s argument is too generic and I still think it was a bad call.

By: RightOFLeft

RightOFLeft — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:04:52 +0000

The clear winner in all of this is advancednflstats.com. If Burke had an obscure blog before, he’s getting linked all over the web now.

By: Joe C.

Joe C. — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:17:01 +0000

I love an irrefutably statistics-based argument.

By: Hot Air » Blog Archive » Video: Maybe the dumbest football decision ever

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:42:30 +0000

[...] threads. They either get a dozen comments, or 300. Meanwhile, King Banaian crunches the numbers in the Green Room to defend [...]