I think that since reconciliation was a fallback position after failure to reach the most desirable outcome for Ds – comprehensive bill passed under “regular order” – then it makes more sense to add the 20% or most of it anyway to the “Obamacare fails” side. It means that the Ds will have to get 60 votes for something, and that that something would be “compromise^2″ at worst – a calibrated compromise between the Full Nancy and a small compromise bill. Every day that passes would seem to calibrate that compromise^2 closer to the small bill, while reducing the whole exercise to a merely political “get something-anything done” or risk abysmal embarrassment (i.e., correct judgment of Democratic performance).

If paying attention to Republicans wasn’t considered a fate worse than death, the Dems could pass a bill with overwhelming majorities that would be quite popular at best, greeted with a nationwide sigh of relief at worst.