Comments on: For whom the bellwether tolls

By: Karl

Karl — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:27:14 +0000

If you apply the Partisan Voting Index, which compares a district’s prior presidential results to national averages, you find that there are 66 Democrats in House districts with a Republican PVI and only 15 Republicans in districts with a Democratic PVI–a similar situation to the 79 Democrats in Republican districts in 1994.

That’s why VA — and the Greenberg/Carville polling of swing districts — tell the story.

By: jon1979

jon1979 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:36:49 +0000

Virginia’s more of a bellweather for the 2012 presidential election. New Jersey’s the bellweather for 2010 because it’s so much harder for Republicans to turn the latter, unless the public is angry at Democrats not just at the state and local level, but at the national one as well.

Remember, the GOP couldn’t win N.J. in 2005, even after a corrupt Democratic governor had tried to make his gay boyfriend the head of the state’s homeland security division in the wake of Sept. 11. Corzine won because he was not Jim McGreevy and the Democrats were still able to pass the buck for their failures up to the White House and the then-GOP run Congress. Those options are gone and if the New Jersey Republicans are smart enough to get enough people with video cameras out in the most likely ACORN-influenced precincts on Tuesday, Corzine has a good chance of also disappearing.

By: ted c

ted c — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:58:04 +0000

And so the bell shall toll.

By: Steve Z

Steve Z — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:17:28 +0000

While a McDonnell win in Virginia (which seems VERY likely) would be a serious reversal, IMHO New Jersey is the real bellwether. It has always been a very Democrat state, and Obama has been actively campaigning for Corzine, so that a Christie win would be a serious rebuke to Obama. Corzine hasn’t helped himself by raising taxes and failing to rein in rampant corruption, plus as a former Goldman-Sachs executive, he has been tarnished with the banking-Wall Street collapse.

If Christie does win, the real test will be how he governs. Will he take on the good-ol’ boy network so pervasive in New Jersey? Will he push for fiscal conservatism, or will he be a RINO like Whitman? While there’s no way that a social-issues conservative can win statewide in New Jersey, by solid fiscal governance, Christie could conceivably sell a majority of NJ voters on lower taxes and balanced budgets.

He could become for NJ what Jodi Rell has become for CT–a socially moderate but fiscally conservative Republican Governor in a blue state, whom voters trust to hold in check (via vetoes) the spending excesses of a Democrat legislature.

As for NY-23, it’s such a normally conservative district that a Democrat win (which could have occurred if both Hoffman and Scozzafava stayed in) would be something for Democrats to crow about. Hoffman is a much better fit to that district than Scozzafava, so that Dede did everyone a “fava” by dropping out. The lesson here for the GOP is, if a conservative can win, run one.

By: antisocial

antisocial — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:52:08 +0000

Why is The Precedent campaigning in NJ and VA (instead of sending Troops to Afghanistan) if it is not about him? I call that dereliction of duty.

By: GarandFan

GarandFan — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:42:21 +0000

For guaranteed political death, hitch your election to Barry’s star.

By: faraway

faraway — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:38:23 +0000

Afghanistan was Obama’s first election fail.

By: EMD

EMD — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:35:47 +0000

If Corzine loses (which he probably will), Obama won’t hesitate to dump him under the bus either. All Dems (not just Blue Dogs) need to realize they are on their own. Their leadership doesn’t care one bit about them. If you can’t gerrymander your way to victory, hasta la vista, baby; Nancy, Harry, and Barry have more important things to do.

At some point the Dem voters may realize that they don’t matter much either. Many Obama supporters are getting an inkling of that. Part of the 2010 bloodbath may be due to dissaffected Dems just staying home, much like the Conservatives did in 2008 with Lindsey Graham’s boyfriend.

By: Schadenfreude

Schadenfreude — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:35:25 +0000

the reelect and issue numbers for Democrats are steadily eroding where it counts.

Independents and the elderly, to name just two…

By: Orange Doorhinge

Orange Doorhinge — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:34:37 +0000

New Jersey is a close call, but…I think NY-23 is in the bag.

By: BottomLine5

BottomLine5 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:31:28 +0000

A nation of free people does not respond well to a cult of personality. Obama’s “charisma” is just as shallow as the depth of his experience. We’ll see of Obama’s touch becomes contra-Midas–> the touch of feces.

By: NoDonkey

NoDonkey — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:31:03 +0000

The chickens are coming home to roost for the Obooboo “administration”.

By: NY23: Unfounded fears | stream4.me

NY23: Unfounded fears | stream4.me — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:05:53 +0000

[...] Here is “Karl” in the Hot Air Green Room: Democrat wins in NY-23 and New Jersey may not say much more than that. Indeed, if Democrats win there by narrow margins, it may say that, a year after Obama won the presidency, it takes nasty three-way contests for Democrats to win in Obama-friendly territory.The hope on the left is that NY-23 is a bellwether of intra-GOP warfare, or of the party being seized by “extremists.” However, most such fights will happen within primaries, which allows more time for unification. And few of those will feature “Republican” candidates as liberal as Dede Scozzafava. [...]

By: di butler

di butler — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:02:06 +0000

Very nice analysis, Karl.