Green Room

Wow, That Was Quick: Scozzafava Drops Out of NY-23 Race

posted at 3:08 pm on October 31, 2009 by

I think my predictions for the special election in New York’s 23rd district are pretty safe now:

Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her bid in next Tuesday’s NY 23 special election, a huge development that dramatically shakes up the race. She did not endorse either of her two opponents — Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman or Democrat Bill Owens.

The decision to suspend her campaign is a boost for Hoffman, who already had the support of 50 percent of GOP voters, according to a newly-released Siena poll, and is now well-positioned to win over the 25 percent of Republicans who had been sticking with Scozzafava.

Heh. Dierdre “Dede” Scozzafava must have been reading Big Lizards. In our previous post, I made my predictions quite explicit:

You may or may not have read it here first, but I think I might have been the first among all those blogs I personally follow — that would be three, counting Big Lizards — to flatly predict that:

  • The race will, in the next couple of days, come down to a two-way between Doug Hoffman and Bill Owens;
  • And that Hoffman will win — and win convincingly. Perhaps not with an outright majority, unless Scozzafava sees the “mene mene” on the wall and drops out; but a solid victory of 5-8 points over Owens, with Scozzafava in third by double-digits.

As usual, when Big Lizards predicts, we invite everyone to track our predictions and see if we know what we’re talking about… or whether we fall flat on our egg.

Cross-posted to Big Lizards

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OK, you’re good.

But I just can’t resist sticking one in your ribs: Scozzofava dropped out yes, but you failed to predict the day and hour.

Go ahead, face palm, moan !!

Nice call, Dafydd !

Robert17 on October 31, 2009 at 3:53 PM