Pawlenty – He’s Nationwide

posted at 1:01 pm on October 1, 2009 by Mitch Berg

Drudge, early this morning, reflected the first question of a fair chunk of whatever portion of the landed punditry follows these sorts of things, with a front-page photo of Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty (often affectionately called “TPaw”) with the headline “CAN THIS MAN CONQUER OBAMA?”

The Minneapolis Star/Tribune noticed, and elaborates on the story:

Gov. Tim Pawlenty filed paperwork today with federal regulators to form the Freedom First PAC, a national fundraising committee he can use to aid GOP candidates in upcoming elections.

Simultaneously, he was featured — with a photo — at the top of the Drudge Report this morning with a headline asking, “CAN THIS MAN CONQUER OBAMA?”

The headline linked to a Politico.com story that reported Pawlenty “has been quietly assembling the blueprint of a presidential campaign even as he has stayed “under the radar of D.C.’s political community”

Now, Barack Obama is shaping up to be a pretty dismal president so far; many of us who on January 21 were resigned to eight years in the wilderness are making mental notes not to throw out the drape measurements, just in case. 

But can TPaw do it?

Let’s go over the strengths and weaknesses of a Pawlenty bid for the White House:

Weakness:  He’s from Minnesota.  Minnesota’s salad days as an incubator of exciting politicians and interesting races are long behind it.  Jesse Ventura, by the way, was more a “freak show” than “evidence of a vibrant culture”.  Minnesota’s only real significance is its ten electoral votes; not chump change, not a kingmaker.

Strength: On the other hand, TPaw has been working diligently on raising that profile.  If slow and steady wins the race, TPaw has got the first part down.

Weakness:  His profile is very low among the conservative base.  Pawlenty has a reputation, not so much as a “moderate” as as a “pragmatist”; he’s no movement conservative.  His showing at the last CPAC – about 2% – showed that he’s not especially well-exposed to the conservative base.  Some Minnesota conservatives call him (wrongly) a RINO.

Strength: But he’s right on the “conservative” issues that do matter to people outside the base – especially in a season where independents are getting serious buyer’s remorse over the neosocialist baggage that came with all the Hope and Change (TM).  His Thermopylae-esque stand against a two-chamber press (the DFL, Minnesota’s Democrats, control the Senate and have a prohibitive supermajority in the House) on two successive state budgets, battling back against a spending-crazy DFL phalanx, should be getting conservatives’ attention nationwide.  While TPaw does run to the center on the occasional issue – global warming, ethanol subsidies – these are “B” and “C” list issues, “nice to haves” compared to the bread-and-butter pocketbook issues. 

A story, for those of you who don’t follow Minnesota GOP trivia: when Pawlenty sought the nomination to run for governor, he faced a very stern challenge from conservative businessman Brian Sullivan, who ran well to Pawlenty’s right.  The state convention in 2002 came down to many, many ballots – and was finally clinched when Pawlenty broke down and took the Taxpayers’ League’s “No New Taxes” pledge.  And for the past six years, come hell or high water, he has held to that pledge, at fearsome political risk, and against the kind of pressure that would have made a real RINO buckle and scamper for cover.

Weakness:  I don’t know that the American conservative “base” knows the above.  They should.  Of course, the national media will follow the lead of the Twin Cities’ media to do their best to obscure this from the legions of moderates and independents who are bailing on the Democrats today.

Strength: Pawlenty is, in theory, the kind of “conservative” who should be able to reach out successfully to independents.  For all the Minnesota left’s incessant whining, he’s not a dogmatic conservative.  He’s focused less on conservative dogma, and more on results in his six years.  His results, unless you’re employed by or addicted to the state bureaucracy, are excellent.  If the American independent street knew the truth about Pawlenty – who’s branded his politics “Sam’s Club Republican” – they’d see there’s a lot to appreciate.

Weakness:  Remember the last time we had a Republican that the media anointed as the “Republican who can reach out to Democrats?”  Remember when Democrats would intone with straight faces that “McCain is the one Republican I’d ever consider voting for?”  Of course, once McCain became a threat, that all changed; the knives came out; the media and left (pardon the redundancy) began finding a “radical conservative” John McCain (whose American Conservative Union lifetime rating is a point to the right of Jim Ramstad, and down there with Chuck Hagel) that had eluded even us on the center right for his entire career. 

Strength: The media matters less than it used to.  Not enough less, but we’re getting there.

Weakness:  Of course, the main vehicle for the weakening and outflanking of the mainstream media – the conservative and center-right alternative media – is an area where Pawlenty has traditionally gone slower than a lot of other candidates.  Along with the Minnesota GOP as a whole, Pawlenty’s been very much a traditionalist in dealing with both the major media (who will eventually turn on him) and the conservative alternative media, talk radio and the blogs. 

Strength: The Minnesota GOP shows signs of being able to change that.  We’ll see if they do, and if TPaw follows suit.

Weakness:  He’s chasing some powerful frontrunners; Palin, Romney and Huckabee have big name recognition and established machines.

Strength: I’m not sure that a machine established in 2008 is all that much to brag about anymore.  To be sure… 

Weakness:  …Pawlenty lacks the name recognition of a Sarah Palin or a Mitt Romney.  But…

Strength: …he’s got some strengths, too.  Since about 2001, I’ve called Pawlenty “the best stump speaker in Minnesota politics today” – and although Rep. Tom Emmer may have taken that title in-state, Pawlenty has formidable stage presence.  He’s much more polished onstage than Sarah Palin – but can fairly be said to match her folksy bonhomie; he plays the “Son of a meat-packer” card with consistency but grace.  As important, he exudes the same sense of gravitas and competency that Romney does – he has paid his dues with interest – without sounding like a CEO in the process. 

I’m not saying Tim Pawlenty is the next “Great Communicator”.  I am saying that enough raw material is there that you can’t rule it out out of hand.

It’s going to be a fun couple of years!

Cross-posted at Shot In The Dark and True North.

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