Green Room

Everybody Get His Camera Ready

posted at 6:48 pm on August 27, 2009 by

In today’s Gallup daily tracking poll (three-day rolling average) — Gallup! — President Barack H. Obama now sits on a job-approval of a bare 50%, having plummeted from 69% approval on January 22-24 (released on January 25th), a few days after he was inaugurated. He has dropped 19 points in 214 days of tracking-poll releases, or one point every eleven days or so. If this goes on, Obama should drop below 50% in the first week of September.

Worse, Obama’s disapproval has risen forty points in that same period, from 13% to 43%. (Again, this is Gallup, not Rasmussen; sampling adults, not likely voters, or even registered voters.) That’s a rise of one point of disapproval every 5.35 days.

The two graphs meet in 25.36 days at 47.74%; so by day 26, Obama would be in negative territory on the Gallup daily tracking poll: 47.7% approval, 47.9% disapproval. (Again, this is a rough guess; the trend may accelerate or slow, but I’m using the rates of the past seven months.) In any event, it won’t show up on the Gallup chart — which doesn’t even show a tenths digit — until three days later.

That is, unless the president turns everything around, on or about September 25th, 2009, Gallup should have him with an approval of 47% and a disapproval of 48%… what Rasmussen has dubbed an “approval index” of -1.

So everybody get your cameras cranked up and loaded with film (yeah, yeah, charge ’em up and clean off that 32 gigabyte SB memory chip); because when even the left-leaning Gallup poll of American adults shows Obama having collapsed into actual negative territory, the roof will cave in on ObamaCare TeddyCare — though perhaps the better term would be KopechneKare, where senators and congressmen skate, while the rest of us get thrown off the Dike Road Bridge — along with many other authoritarian, nanny-state policies.

There’s just something politically crippling about a net negative job approval; just ask the last resident of la Casa Blanca.

Cross-posted on Big Lizards

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you need to make a little math correction – in the second paragraph, the move from 13% to 43% is a Thirty point rise, not a forty. Might change your calculations a bit; although I suspect you know you’re already going way out on a limb by projecting that these trends will continue in a linear fashion. I don’t doubt that they’ll continue; but nothing in this world stays linear for very long.

WWS on August 27, 2009 at 7:02 PM

ObamaCare TeddyCare — though perhaps the better term would be KopechneKare

I’m partial to chappaquiddicare myself.

PoliTech on August 28, 2009 at 12:53 PM