What if Obamacare fails?
posted at 11:26 am on July 15, 2009 by Karl
regular view
The cloud of gloom over Pres. Obama’s efforts to take over the US healthcare system is expanding beyond the Center-Left. Even Ezra Klein is occasionally allowing himself to realize that people do not want to pay higher taxes to get less healthcare (both in terms of treatment and innovation). The House bill will bite almost every small business in America. Moreover, people making under $50,000 and families making under $90,000 could pay higher taxes and still remain uninsured. As people learn “what’s in it for them,” the effort will become even more unpopular. Leading with the House bill — and the Kennedy-Dodd markup in the Senate — was probably a mistake by the Democrats.
As for the supposed benefits, Pres. Obama has been selling healthcare “reform” as a cost-cutting measure. But when the L.A. Times is reporting that even Obama supporters are dubious, you know there is trouble in River City.
Some on the Left are increasingly agitating for Obama to get more involved in pushing a bill, especially through the Senate. But the president’s political capital is ebbing every day. A steady stream of bad economic news these days is eroding Obama’s standing. It also appears to be draining support on the heathcare issue. Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg posited that rising unemployment would boost the chances of passing Obamacare, which had a certain logic to it. However, overall, healthcare reform is losing support. This dynamic adds urgency to the effort to ram bills into a House-Senate conference. Yet “the fierce urgency of now” approach will only fuel suspicion of the effort among the electorate.
Indeed, the Democrats’ increasing willingness to publicly pursue a partisan bill — now tacitly supported or accepted by Obama — may have tipped the Left’s hand a bit early. Moderate Democrats have already voted for a stimulus package that is leaving a sour taste in the mouths of voters and is being portrayed as a failure by the media. A number of moderate House Democrats were bribed or threatened into supporting a cap-and-trade bill that will likely die in the Senate. These legislators may be less likely to back a bill voters see as higher taxes with few benefits, just to please a president with waning popularity.
The question then becomes what happens if Obama and the Democratic leadership cannot secure enough support from their moderate colleagues. The most believable talking point from the Obama administration on this issue has been that failure is not an option. After all, the White House strategy on this issue all along has been to try to avoid failing like the Clinton administration did, in no small part due to the political consequences of that failure. For Obama to fail now would be even worse, as Bill Clinton could make Hillary the scapegoat, whereas there is no obvious fall guy or gal today. In 1993-94, the Left could also blame people like Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh for leading the opposition. But neither Gingrich nor Limbaugh has been as active this year. Moreover, a lapdog press that has been touting Obama as the Great Man of History would be loathe to have him felled by the likes of Limbaugh, especially after Dick Cheney stalemated Obama on national security issues earlier this year.
Accordingly, it seems increasingly likely that Obama will take whatever he can get on healthcare, declare victory, and try to move on without answering too many questions about the result. While the Left hopes to hand the the moderates a fait accompli, the moderates may already be figuring out that they hold the upper hand.
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Fails to pass? I’ll probably buy a bottle of Courvoisier or Ouzo and celebrate.
Daggett on July 15, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Karl:
You know what will happen if it fails.
#1: the failure won’t matter because Democrats had good intentions when they passed it.
#2: anyone who points out the failure is a racist/sexist/genderist/homophobic/classist who doesn’t want people to get medical care.
#3: we’ll fix the problem by increasing the funding.
BD57 on July 15, 2009 at 12:08 PM
During the campaign, Obama said he would pass ObamaCare by the end of his first term, which is quite different from during the first 6 months. He can always fall back on that original promise and save face for now.
Buy Danish on July 15, 2009 at 2:02 PM
Too big to fail.
Patrick on July 15, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Etc.
Patrick on July 15, 2009 at 2:08 PM
I am CONVINCED ObamaCare WILL fail.
It won’t pass.
Too many opposed to it — without a single ‘antiObama’ ad to be seen YET.
Obama has done town halls, all networks, fake ads, without a word about the cost, and NO DEBATE AGAINST IT — and a plurality typically oppose it in polls, high 40s opposed, low 40s support.
IT CAN ONLY GO DOWN IN SUPPORT> He wont win any one else!
battleoflepanto1571 on July 15, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Too big to fail.
lorien1973 on July 15, 2009 at 2:17 PM
remove the IF and replace with WHEN……
Thanks
SDarchitect on July 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM
From all I’ve heard it’s already a failure. We’re just waiting for the Dims to make it into law anyway.
Guardian on July 15, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Karl, your comments about Obama’s falling support are correct, but they have fallen from high to middle numbers. In my amateur’s opinion I believe, unfortunately, that he still has plenty enough clout to ram through some kind of Obamacare bill, and both Peolosi and Reid have already shown that they are willing to do just about anything to get a bill through. So while I hope your forecast is correct, I pessimistically believe we are going to get stuck with some kind of Obama plan which will then be very difficult or impossible even to reform, let alone eliminate.
jwolf on July 15, 2009 at 2:21 PM
More important question I think: What if Obamacare appears to succeed?
Lehosh on July 15, 2009 at 2:21 PM
If it fails…I’m not sure it will…I will get drunk.
SouthernGent on July 15, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Define success
lorien1973 on July 15, 2009 at 2:24 PM
If Obama suceeds he dooms his majority in Congress. If Obama fails he dooms his agenda…
Hmmmm, choices, choices….
elduende on July 15, 2009 at 2:28 PM
If it fails…
We’re gonna party like its 1999!
Oh, the good old days.
singlemalt_18 on July 15, 2009 at 2:31 PM
#4: We’ll restrict access to the little people, who don’t matter anyway.
MarkTheGreat on July 15, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Man, it’s like the Statists are entirely predicable or something.
I would have said the same thing except you beat me to it.
Chainsaw56 on July 15, 2009 at 2:33 PM
jwolf on July 15, 2009 at 2:21 PM
I believe Obama’s poll numbers are lot weaker than they appear in these public polls.
There are a lot of people who will never admit to a pollster that they have lost faith in Obama. On the other hand, their enthusiasm has dropped to the point that they are a lot less likely to make the effort to vote this next time.
MarkTheGreat on July 15, 2009 at 2:35 PM
Horrible, squalid, and even deadly, but mostly at the margins (people who, ironically, the program is meant to protect) and not in enough numbers to penetrate Obama’s Ministry of Information.
Lehosh on July 15, 2009 at 2:38 PM
Crap n’ Trade and Obamacare are DOA.
The clip of the crash and burn teleprompter is the perfect analogy of Teh One.
John the Libertarian on July 15, 2009 at 2:38 PM
No way am I giving up my right to be treated by the doctor of my choice and receive the treatments of my choice.
Blake on July 15, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Obama’s overall numbers are okay, but one thing most on Capitol Hill know how to do is track polling trends. Obama is losing independents daily. And pols know that those numbers are likely to continue to get worse until people see the unemployment numbers going down — which most think won’t happen until sometime next year. A Rep. or Senator in a swing district or state — especially one who has already taken some unpopular votes for party unity — is getting queasier every day about the prospect of voting on Obamacare.
Another indicator is the frustration of Lefties like Jane Hamsher:
Expectations are getting managed.
Karl on July 15, 2009 at 2:47 PM
http://corner.nationalreview.com/
I say if it can’t be defeated we should force the vote along party lines it will polarize the nation beyond anything Obama ever dreamed. It makes the nation ungovernable for him and the Congress.
elduende on July 15, 2009 at 2:56 PM
Careful. It’s almost as though you want Obama to fail!!1!
Lehosh on July 15, 2009 at 3:02 PM
Au contraire, Karl . He has an ace in the hole that that folks rarely call out. Stimulus, Cap & Trade, HealthCare… he voted “present”, remained the Campaigner In Chief for these initiatives, and let Congress write them all, proposing hardly any details.
In the end, when things get bad, he will argue that he did not write them and did not fully approve of their structure…it was Congress’s fault. Watch.
NickelAndDime on July 15, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Right on Karl.
I think they only care about passing SOMETHING.
Then Barry can brag about his great accomplishment.
Doesn’t much matter to this crew if it’s true or not, just so they get to say it.
Anyone think that to these cynical jokers higher unemployment numbers are good news? Means an expanded market for their “programs”.
PaddyJ on July 15, 2009 at 3:07 PM
He has an ace in the hole that that folks rarely call out. Stimulus, Cap & Trade, HealthCare… he voted “present”, remained the Campaigner In Chief for these initiatives, and let Congress write them all, proposing hardly any details.
In the end, when things get bad, he will argue that he did not write them and did not fully approve of their structure…it was Congress’s fault. Watch.
NickelAndDime on July 15, 2009 at 3:03 PM
—-
I suspect this is the game plan.
The question is what the game after 2010 looks like – if the house flips (don’t think the senate *can* flip, although the Dems may lose their magic 60) do we get another Clinton triangulation-game?
Mew
acat on July 15, 2009 at 3:11 PM
Guilty. Actually its worse than that, I want him to fail spectacularly.
elduende on July 15, 2009 at 3:12 PM
I’m a little torn. When Clinton failed, he rode that failure into a second term. A prospect that frustrates me to no end is the possibility that we might beat him so soundly on Hillarycare and Cap’n Trade and future Stimuli that the economy will recover and he’ll take credit for it. I think I’d like to see this administration thoroughly discredited and their corruption exposed before we start turning things around.
joe_doufu on July 15, 2009 at 3:13 PM
Obama will pass something… he may have to considerably scale down his ambitions and just go with another duplicate healthcare for children bill with a smaller price tag.
El_Terrible on July 15, 2009 at 3:14 PM
Don’t you mean, ‘What when Obamacare fails?’
JIMV on July 15, 2009 at 3:15 PM
If any form of public option, no matter how it may be initially constrained, full blown socialized medicine will eventually follow. It will be impossible to stop this steamroller once it starts. As an indication of this think of trying to privatize medicare. Anyone who tried would be out of politics in a nanosecond. The D’s may compromise on anything else to get a little toe in the door with a ‘pilot’ public plan.
Annar on July 15, 2009 at 3:22 PM
I think it’s going to take absolutely savage opposition to make the Democrats give up on some kind of universal health care plan. This is it – the ultimate political prize. It will permanently alter the relationship between citizens and their government.
Look at the huge political gravity well surrounding Social Security… this would be ten times as huge. Nationalized health care would not only provide a huge amout of leverage on its own – it would also become a useful weapon against virtually every other conservative or libertarian policy. Nationalized health care would spell the end of tax cuts, for one thing. It would also provide the justification for never-ending expansion of government power over private lives, because everything that could affect your health would become the government’s business.
This is just too big for the Left to back down on, when they’re closer than they’ve ever gotten. It will take a really terrifying groundswell of public opinion to frighten the Democrats out of slapping down the ace that completes the Royal Flush of statism.
Doctor Zero on July 15, 2009 at 3:24 PM
Boy ain’t that the truth. Just look at the platforms of the center right parties in Europe. The ascendant Tories in the UK for example, are emasculated when it comes to this issue. They call for “reforming” the Health Service and eliminating “waste” but not privatizing or eliminating the socialist boondogle…
elduende on July 15, 2009 at 3:34 PM
I saw this on DUh and just had to share:
If it were not so scary that this person actually believes the government is efficient, it would be laughable
NoFanofLibs on July 15, 2009 at 3:40 PM
Obviously written by some moron that’s never been inside a DMV.
elduende on July 15, 2009 at 3:43 PM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_L6pDyjqqsvY/Sl4Y4sr5fGI/AAAAAAAAc04/GcLzEjOYTac/s1600-h/healthcare+map.JPG
Looks more efficient to me
elduende on July 15, 2009 at 3:46 PM
He may try it, but not even he will be able to get away with that cynical a stunt.
Responsibility always stops with the president. If he tries to fix the blame for these programs on someone else, his popularity will immediately fall 10 to 20 points.
MarkTheGreat on July 15, 2009 at 4:03 PM
FIFY
NoFanofLibs on July 15, 2009 at 4:03 PM
I wish HotAir would organize a list of groups or events aimed at protesting Obama’s healthcare policies (or Cap and Trade). Me writing my Republican congressman isn’t really doing anything, since I know how they are voting. Other than making national noise so the media picks it up, what can citizens do to help make what DoctorZero called a “terrifying groundswell of public opinion”?
What groups are out there?
Thunderstorm129 on July 15, 2009 at 4:04 PM
Obama is putting a lot of chips on health care because he knows Cap & Tax is DOA in the Senate and along with Porkulus, two out of three ain’t bad. But I think his full court press on Health Care indicates an admission that it’s in trouble.
If it fails, the Obamunists will blame it on “the forces in Washington who benefit from the staus quo” or some such demagogic nonsense. They will also find some way to blame Bush of course.
And the media propagandists will dutifully play along.
RadClown on July 15, 2009 at 4:42 PM
Everyday I am out here blasting Obama, Harry Reid, Pelosi, and Dina Titus, but like you say, I know how they are voting and nothing I say seems to sway them. I just get a “canned” letter that never addresses what I write them about. Any suggestions?
KCinLV on July 15, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Someone needs to take the koolaid away from this writer – it’s gone straight to the head where the brain was suppose to be. How can anyone think a government who gets less than $.35 of every welfare dollar to the recipient, who steals from the social security fund to the point of bankruptcy, who funds billions of dollars in to saving a marsh mouse when unemployment is at 9.5%, who purchases outlandish things for even more outlandish prices………. to anything better than a business?
Oh, and may we refer him to the private corporations running prisons efficiently like Corrections Corporations of America (CCA)?
katablog.com on July 15, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Don’t feel like the lone ranger – I get exactly the same preplanned response.
katablog.com on July 15, 2009 at 4:45 PM
Worth repeating: Health Care Organization chart
katablog.com on July 15, 2009 at 4:49 PM
OMG!!
KCinLV on July 15, 2009 at 4:55 PM
So if one is a timecist, we can point out it’s a failure??
das411 on July 15, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Quote: “It will take a really terrifying groundswell of public opinion to frighten the Democrats out of slapping down the ace that completes the Royal Flush of statism.”
The ammount of combat ready ammunition that has been purchased since Novermber by the citienry – I personally can say I am more than “ready” to assist in any “terrirying ground swells” that should occur. I know I didn’t buy all 6 BILLION rounds of ammo that’s sold since Nov… so that must mean there are thousands of more just like me out there.
The Ronin Edge on July 15, 2009 at 5:47 PM
Folks, Crap and Tax will be implemented no matter what. The only question is whether Ogabe gets to hide behind Congress, or implements it through EPA and the courts.
SDN on July 15, 2009 at 6:04 PM
That was pretty surreal. It reads like the antimatter version of me.
Doctor Zero on July 15, 2009 at 7:21 PM
? how in blazes does one submit a story ??
.
It didn’t take long to run into an “uh-oh” moment when reading the House’s “health care for all Americans” bill. Right there on Page 16 is a provision making individual private medical insurance illegal.
When we first saw the paragraph Tuesday, just after the 1,018-page document was released, we thought we surely must be misreading it. So we sought help from the House Ways and Means Committee.
It turns out we were right: The provision would indeed outlaw individual private coverage. Under the Orwellian header of “Protecting The Choice To Keep Current Coverage,” the “Limitation On New Enrollment” section of the bill clearly states:
“Except as provided in this paragraph, the individual health insurance issuer offering such coverage does not enroll any individual in such coverage if the first effective date of coverage is on or after the first day” of the year the legislation becomes law.
…
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=332548165656854
/.
CaveatEmpty on July 15, 2009 at 9:09 PM
uh…man, this is depressing. I don’t know where to start, I feel like balling up in a corner and repeating “Find a happy place” over and over. Wow…there are people running around that actually believe this. *sigh*…”profit” is evil? *sigh* Where do you start with a person like this?
Businesses in their natural state strive toward efficiency, to maximize profits…unless government gets involved that is! Businesses/corporations can veer from morality in the persuit of efficiency, but that IS the reason for laws, and should not be an excuse to limit choice or should I call it liberty?
NickelAndDime on July 16, 2009 at 8:37 AM