The US Senate race in Illinois: Larger lesson?

posted at 11:07 am on July 13, 2009 by
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Hardly anyone outside Illinois wrote about this last week, let alone the larger implications:

Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan will not run for a U.S. Senate seat–despite wooing by President Obama, Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett, Dick Durbin and the Democratic Senate political operation based in Washington. She will not run for governor. Instead, Madigan is announcing Wednesday afternoon that she is running for another term as Illinois Attorney General.

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Madigan–called the most popular political figure in Illinois by Emanuel, Obama’s Chief of Staff–was considered the favorite to win a bid for governor or Senate. Her father is House Speaker Michael J. Madigan (D-Chicago) who is also the boss of the Illinois Democratic Party. He was a crucial factor in her winning her first attorney general race in 2002.

It’s easy to see why Madigan might take a pass on running for Governor — Illinois is a shambles financially and its government is slouching toward California-style paralysis. But what of the Senate race? Madigan’s supposed motive here was to avoid a primary challenge. But with the tainted Sen. Roland Burris out, her only serious competition in the Senate race would have been Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. He was an early Obama backer, but Obama apparently was hoping for Madigan.

Madigan’s withdrawal prompted Rep. Mark Kirk to reconsider running for Senate on the GOP side, where he may have a relatively clear field. Kirk is one of a number of moderate Republican candidates looking competitive in races for Senate seats now held by Democrats (conservatives may not be thrilled by that, but that’s a subject for another post). Recruitment efforts for House Republicans also looks promising so far.

In this context, one might wonder whether Madigan looked at the political landscape and saw what a lot of Republican challengers are seeing — a tough 2010 cycle for Democrats.

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Kirk is one of the 8 House R’s who voted YES on Cap n Trade. He’ll definitely be a “hold your nose” and vote for kind of guy. Chris Kennedy, yes he’s one those Kennedy’s, might run.

Muletrain on July 13, 2009 at 12:57 PM

Kirk may have voted yes on cap-and-trade as part of his plan to win the senate – appeal to at least one Dem issue.

Alas, health care may have been a better one to support as cap-and-trade may damage him quite a bit – southern Illinois coal vs. southern Illinois biofuels …

The news was Madigan. The governors’ mansion next occupant will likely have to preside over service cuts and tax increases to start paying off the debt that’s been ratcheting up for years; it’s a no-win to go further than governor… but it may be a win-and-hold if played well, or a good spot to retire from for an “elder statesman” type.

Mew

acat on July 13, 2009 at 2:49 PM

The gubernatorial race in Illinois is shaping up to be a dogfight, and Madigan is likely saavy enough to ignore it for now (she’s young still) and let things shake out for a future race. She’s content to let Alexi Giannoulias battle Quinn, and watch the current six Repub candidates (Andrzejewski, Brady, Murphy, Proft, Dillard and Schillerstrom) slug it out until February. Illinois is sick, and everybody and their mother thinks they have the prescription. The reality is, we’re all hosed here in the Land of Hey Blinkin.

Flyover Country on July 13, 2009 at 4:33 PM