The House Passes Monstrous Climate Change Bill – Everyone Wins
posted at 1:59 pm on June 28, 2009 by CK MacLeod
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With passage in the House on Friday of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, ACES, H.R. 2454, its drafters have declared an historic victory that other observers have likened to a declaration of war on the American economy.
I’m curious whether anyone disputes the following as the most likely explanation for what we’ve seen, expressed as a series of interrelated assumptions for any representative voting on the bill:
- The bill that was taking shape would not pass the Senate and would never be signed into law;
- Those members of the public interested enough to inform themselves on the details of the never-passed legislation would consist mainly of those already strongly persuaded one way or the other;
- The only point in writing and advancing the bill (or, in a different way, voting against it) was to go through the motions of keeping promises to constituency/activist groups.
Under those assumptions, the Democrats had incentives to overload the bill with little dedication placards to each and every GW activist who visited their offices, but little or no incentive (or opportunity) to offer a sensible and coherent whole. A sufficient number of politically vulnerable Democrats could be bought off in the usual way with the usual tokens. The rest were free to vote with the Rs if they preferred to do so.
Meanwhile, the Republicans were also given a chance to bind with their base – leading to 1,000-post threads of blood-curdling “death of liberty” comments at, for instance, HotAir, while making John Boehner and Eric Kantor seem more or less worth having in Washington. At the far other end of the political spectrum, GW extremists could bemoan the legislation as hopelessly compromised, requiring their leading donors to re-double their efforts… and contributions.
Kind of a win-win, if not win-win-win-win all around – especially if the next wave of hysteria on Climate Change will have to await economic developments that make a massive government response even conceivable. If Gaia is weeping, in the arms of St. Gore, she’ll probably get over it.
Even if – unlike the majority even of climate scientists – you accept the full Global Warming case as the product of an unchallengeable and thoroughly understood consensus, the insight of University of Virginia Professor William F Ruddiman, quoted in the essential GW dissent by Alan Carlin, Senior Economist with the Environmental Protection Agency, remains controlling:
[There is] an unspoken truth about global warming that for some reason politicians of both parties ignore. To reduce current and further greenhouse-gas emissions to levels that would avoid most of the projected future warming, draconian economic sacrifices would have to be enacted that almost everyone would find intolerable: much more expensive fuel for travel and heating, much lower/higher thermostat settings in houses and workplaces, and extremely costly upgrades (or total replacements) of power plants. The drag on the economy and on quality of life from such efforts would be enormous, and few citizens would stand for it. At this time, with current technologies, we simply cannot afford the effort that would be required to mitigate the main impact of global warming.
Note: The above was published in June 2007 – well prior to the current economic crisis.
Everything else is theater – in DC, it’s client-servicing theater – and, unless lightning strikes Mitch McConnell, we will soon be thanking God and the framers that the deepest truth of the American system and of politics generally, as to the proverbial more being said than done, survives.
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But how exactly does the Conservative movement win with 8 R’s voting for a bill that is supposedly not going to pass? Does this show that the GOP (the current “defender of conservatism”) perhaps has some weaknesses? They couldn’t even muster a unified front…
Upstater85 on June 28, 2009 at 2:24 PM
You answer your own question, comrade: The Conservative movement gets to agitate the base about the waywardness of its current political defenders – although, to be fair, it was pretty close to unified, and the performance of the leadership further strengthens the GOP’s identity as the party of non-alarmism on GW (increasingly a political plus rather than a minus, in my view). Individual defectors may yet pay a price, I guess, but they may correctly figure that hardly anyone who matters electorally will remember a bill that was, for all intents and purposes, a Summer disaster movie that didn’t even have much of an opening weekend.
CK MacLeod on June 28, 2009 at 3:19 PM
Only works as long as this gets stoped in the Senate.
With the pressure tactics we’ve seen from the House, and White House.. and the blatant stupidity of some of those in Washington, this may pass.
I know people are calling it dead on arrival, but who ever thought that Amnesty would come so close to passing last year… or the TARP… or the recent Budget…
Never underestimate the perfidity of large numbers of Washington insiders.
Romeo13 on June 28, 2009 at 4:34 PM
Far be it from me to underestaimte DC perfidy, but I don’t think that the WH and even most hardcore GW activists want this bill or anything like it to pass. They’d just as soon keep the issue as enact a disaster. Depends upon how much “motioning” the enviro-base demands, I guess, to see how far Harry Reid and his friends go feigning an interest in saving the planet. Don’t forget how happy they were to pretend to be ready to cut off Iraq war funding, yet somehow never quite managed to do so (thus take ownership of the catastrophe that would have ensued).
I’m tempted to bet you $4 Zillion carbon credits it doesn’t even come to a vote – though that would leave me fresh out if I was wrong.
CK MacLeod on June 28, 2009 at 4:50 PM
My representative is from 8th District (WA): U.S. Representative Dave Reichert (R).
.
This is the same guy who let the green river killer slip through the buracracy of the King County Sheriff department for years prior to his capture. It is quite the read. Reichert took all the credit for the capture of the green river killer. He was only one of the many who worked to bring this POS to justice. He took full credit falsely in front of the cameras here in the great northwest and no media here called bull sh!t. His claim and subsequent book on this matter catapulted this man as a psuedo hero. In his new status he decided to run and ultimately win the 8th district seat here in the state of Washington. Man, we have a lot of ignorant people living here. His voting record since being seated is moderate at best. He is a rino who panders to lefts POV when he thinks it will get him re-elected. This is not his first slip.
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In voting in favor of this C&T bill he has again wandered off the reservation and frankly I don’t give a sh!t anymore about his rhetoric. Rumors have been forthcoming that a long time conserative radio host (KIRBY WILBER) will challenge Reichert in the up and coming primaries. I want him gone and so does Kirby. Rino’s should know from now on that there will be consequences for votes cast that are anti-capitalistic and therefore are unamerican.
Americannodash on June 28, 2009 at 5:06 PM
Key vote will be to stop debate on it… and that vote will never be taken unless they have the votes needed.
But, “if” Stuart Smalley gets in… its one vote closer… add in a Spectre and Snow… and we’ve got problems.
Romeo13 on June 28, 2009 at 5:38 PM
You raise a good point. There have been yelps and cries from shall we say Progressive Republicans that they are somehow being persecuted. You would have thought that Sarah Palin (pregnant with her alien child) and 12 Jewish Neocons got in a secret room together discussing how to kick them out of the party. Of course this is ridiculous. Specter kicked himself out, no? Powell freely voted for Obama and so on.
I say, kick no one out. Perhaps punish them, but don’t kick them out. Attempt to keep the big tent open. That said… if the voters (such as Specter’s) want to kick them out, shouldn’t they be given this opportunity? After all, these Progressive (or even Conservative) Republicans are suppose to represent their voters. If they aren’t doing a good job of representing, it’s time to move on. No more claiming to be the victim. If you fail to convince your electorate that you are representing them well, then I’d say you have no place in the party, and the enforcers of this will be the voters.
Upstater85 on June 28, 2009 at 6:08 PM
What are you talking about? I heard he’s in a convertible with Elvis Presley somewhere…
Upstater85 on June 28, 2009 at 6:16 PM
(Upstater – good point! I heard the same. I think I’m going to take that last line out – I was thinking about how the country mostly had its mind on other things. but it just feels like it was in bad taste.)
CK MacLeod on June 28, 2009 at 6:27 PM
I agree, but I wonder how the electorate becomes properly informed. Seems that grass roots dissemination levels of useless information items have positive effects. I don’t see that cons reach voters as effectively as the dems have done. The dems have done a smash-up job of making young voters believe that being in the conservative party is the same as pushing Al Bundy’s car home. This post’s subject is made possible with the dems skillful use of the Big Lie. It’s likely that dems replace dems with more of the same – irrespective of party affiliations. I have a feeling that the senate vote will be exciting.
ericdijon on June 28, 2009 at 7:49 PM
I have two “sample” letters that you can send to, not only yours, but ALL members of the House and Senate:
Letter #1
WE the People are VERY, VERY angry!! WE ALL know the true cost of your vote!! WE ARE coming for ALL of you!! YOU WORK FOR US!! You voted for a massive 1,300 page bill that YOU NEVER READ!! You voted for the largest tax hike EVER!! You voted for the largest expansion of government EVER!! The 1,300 page bill, THAT YOU NEVER READ, puts government in control of an additional(at best), 20% of this country’s economy!! You will NOT be given another chance!! WE will ALL put our last, thin, tax weakened dollars into the campaigns of YOUR opponents!! It matters NOT to US whether there is an R or a D after their name!! It matters NOT to US which part of this great country you run in, because WE are ALL in the United States of America!! WE will boycott any product, service or business that run their ads with media/news outlets that are not doing the job of investigative reporting!! WE will close, transfer or cash out financial accounts of all kinds, WE will shift investments and roll over retirement accounts, IRA’s, 401k’s, ect., all in an effort to keep OUR money from finding its way into YOUR campaign via THEIR contribution! You may allow your “leader” to decide your vote, but WE The People decide OUR own!!
Letter #2
YOUR FIRED!!!
take your pick!
Every day I wake up and tell myself that this Administration, this Congress, this Senate and this state run media can not possibly get any worse, until they do. Every night I fall asleep aware of the real fear I have for my children and the country WE will leave them, but find comfort in knowing millions and millions of others also feel that fear. OUR anger builds, it is palpable. I just hope that, like me, they also feel the rising intensity of this countrys awakened SPIRIT and that SPIRIT is what will lead US through, to what WE know ,in OUR heart, comes.
Where do I sign up for the Revolution? I’m Ready
stacy on June 28, 2009 at 8:42 PM
I’m on the same path as Romeo13 above. I wonder if this won’t somehow get through the Senate and then be forced into conference. Anything that shows up on the president’s desk will get signed. In the end, it’s not if you voted in conference, it’s how you voted the first time.
All votes have consequences. I wonder if there’s not a #4 that everyone missed in their initial thinking?
jdfister on June 29, 2009 at 10:26 AM
I’ll add this then, without changing my bet: In the event that the Ds passed and Obama signed a bill anything like HR 2454, it could well be the best thing that ever happened to American conservatism. If the Rs were high-stakes Machiavellian gamblers about it, sure of their brief, they’d insist on a vote, and pray for passage, because rolling the bill back under the next congresses and next president could be the start of rolling the whole liberal state catastrophe back.
Here’s what I can at least conceive might motivate the eco-Ds to even higher levels of brinksmanship, however: Their fear that the tide might be turning against GW-ism, and that the failure to pass something , or in some other way demonstrate commitment to and confidence in the cause, would be interpreted as their Waterloo.
CK MacLeod on June 29, 2009 at 12:22 PM
Amen to that one, CK…
jdfister on June 29, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Is the tide really turning against GW though? That survey indicates most of the academics still lean toward AGW.
They’re not as over the top about it as reporters, but then they never are.
TheUnrepentantGeek on June 29, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Ungeek: Various polls have suggested that the public is less than convinced, and that the numbers of skeptics are increasing.
This article gives an excellent round-up of growing international skepticism:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124597505076157449.html
CK MacLeod on June 29, 2009 at 5:30 PM
I hope you’re correct.
TheUnrepentantGeek on June 29, 2009 at 6:16 PM