Green Room

Presidential Stock Breaks Down Amidst Missed Opportunity on Iran

posted at 10:55 am on June 21, 2009 by

As noted in the HotAir Headlines, OBAM has broken key support, and the Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index is now trading in negative territory.

As some of you may recall, the President once compared the stock market and opinion polls, suggesting that they both have a way of bouncing around.  We take him at his word, and therefore treat his numbers like those of a recent IPO offering.  The PAI below registers the difference between Strong Approval and Strong Disapproval since inauguration:

In stock trading terms, this action qualifies as a breakdown below critical support – “0″ on the PAI – to a new all-time low (also a new all-time high on Strong Disapproval, at 34%).  Though a snapback is possible, though anything is possible, the odds favor further deterioration.

In my opinion no one factor explains this decline, and the overall weakness in OBAM probably has most to do with doubts about the Obama domestic program, but this week was also a major missed opportunity:  The turmoil in Iran.

For quite some time now, since mid-campaign ’08, Obamanauts have been in love with the polls.  (Of course, most of the rest of us would have been, too, if they’d been in our favor.)  It can lead not just to laziness, but to foolishness – a compulsive, decontextualized focus on “who’s ahead.”  I therefore noted with some amusement a recent Obama-troll poll reading in which the lefty was excited because Rasmussen last week showed a plurality of respondents approving of Obama’s response to Iran.  Probably an arrested adolescent in his 20s like so many other political trolls, this particular individual didn’t realize that a president commenting on a foreign crisis in which a hated, violent regime is opposed by earnest, peaceful democracy protestors should come in at, say, 90% approval on anything he says.

It’s the kind of political slam dunk that should already be going up on the presidential scoreboard before the presidential mouth has opened.  Instead, this President, this Leader of the Free World, this Hope and Change Lightbringer, couldn’t get more than 43% of likely voters to term his response “about right” against the alternatives “too aggressive” (9%), “not aggressive enough” (35%), and “no opinion/don’t know.”

For many months, but especially since January, a favorite “commentary” or “analysis” of current events from leftwing trolls has been a version of the President’s famous “I won”:  The President won and is popular, so what he’s doing is right, and anyone who opposes him lost, is unpopular, and wrong.  If the most passionate respondents in Rasmussen’s sample of likely voters are a leading rather than a trailing indicator, and mainstream polls follow, those on the left, including the President himself, will have to start defending their policies and positions on the merits again.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

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Short, and then de-list him.

Daggett on June 21, 2009 at 11:25 AM

Let’s hope it keeps breaking down.

This guy, from the moment he first stepped on the national stage, has been all about himself.

Ridiculous messianic theatrics at the DNC. The moronic presidential campaign logo seal. The equally moronic “Office of the President Elect” seal. Scaring the daylights out of New Yorkers just so he can have a cool Air Force One photo op. Shutting down streets on Broadway and spending millions of dollars (in the middle of the so called worst recession since the Depression) just so he can take Michelle Obama there, when entertainment opportunities abound in D.C. Lecturing us about driving our SUVs, and then setting the First Thermostat to whatever he damn well pleases. The Muslim world will transform solely because of his speech in Cairo. And now, making a big show out of taking his family to an ice cream parlor, while innocent Iranian civilians are being murdered by a dictatorship.

Like Rush said after the inauguration, this guy doesn’t seem to want to BE president. He just wants to DO president.

Enough is enough. It’s time the public held him accountable for the narcissistic, ineffectual “leader” he’s become.

Hawkins1701 on June 21, 2009 at 11:28 AM

It’ll be nice to see Obama having to debate on the merits of the ideas again. Conservatives damn well ought to own that ground….

Mew

acat on June 21, 2009 at 11:48 AM

It might be possible to literally short Obama, on Intrade. And it shorting Obama, a better is going long on America.

BCrago66 on June 21, 2009 at 1:16 PM

Nice post CK, as usual…

Watching Obama’s approval numbers fall like a lead weight in water, brings back some of the hope I’ve lost in the American people. I simply can’t believe what I’m watching with this administration, and I can’t believe millions of Americans aren’t marching on D.C. this 4th of July. At least the general public seems to be opening their eyes to the guy.

Keemo on June 21, 2009 at 4:09 PM

Thanks, Keemo. We’re still a long way from it, but part of there is an I think rational reluctance on the part of the electorate to turn completely on a president, especially in times like these. I hope he fails. In fact, I hope he’s already failed, but that doesn’t mean I underestimate how bad for the country and the world a “failed presidency” would likely be, don’t keep my eye open for whatever saving graces might appear, don’t want to overdo the pessimism, and wouldn’t prefer for him to come around far enough at least to make his replacement’s job easier.

In Iran, for instance, we might muddle through anyway, and, if he does find his voice on American values and a foreign policy that supports them, the country will probably rally around him, whether he deserves the support personally or not.

CK MacLeod on June 21, 2009 at 9:24 PM