The Most Important Men in Pakistan…

posted at 7:37 pm on May 1, 2009 by coldwarrior

Pakistan is one step away from collapse, maybe, if you are keeping current.  The Taliban in Swat and other regions have consolidated ground in some areas and are being pushed back and destroyed in others.  As the Pakistani Army and Special Forces attempt to check their advance and push them out of regions close to the capital, there are many worries, here in Washington, and in Islamabad, as well.

The big question is how safe is Pakistan’s nulcear arsenal?

Earlier this week, according to the US News and World Report, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari felt compelled to respond publicly to those concerns by stating that the country’s nuclear arsenal is beyond the grasp of Islamist militants. “I want to assure the world that the nuclear capability of Pakistan is under safe hands,” President Asif Ali Zardari insisted.

Of key concern to this writer is not what Zardari says to the cameras, nor what Zardari wishes, or what he may say to Hillary Clinton, or Richard Holbrooke nor even Admiral Mullen, who visited Pakistan this past week to try to obtain assurances that Pakistan would “cooperate more closely with the United States. ”

My concern is what happens if…

If the Taliban toppled the government in Islamabad, what then?

If one of the other political parties in Pakistan force Zardari out…they came close a few weeks ago…then what?

Allowing the Taliban, or any extremist group to grab the “nuclear football” from the Pakistani leadership in the heat of battle or after toppling the government in Islamabad is a nightmare that certainly keeps many officials in many parts of the world awake at night or waking up in cold sweats.

Is there any sanity in all of this?

There is.  Two outstanding military officers, Pakistani Generals Kidwai and Kiyani.

Let me introduce to you the two most important men in Pakistan.

The first is, Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai, currently head of the Strategic Planning Division (SPD), a special unit of the Pakistani Armed Forces established by former Pakistani President Musharraf, to protect Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.   Kidwai is a reclusive man.  Few photos of him are available outside of official Pakistani circles, and his public visits abroad are equally few.

However, Kidwai did give a presentation in Monterey, California, in October 2006, as a special guest lecturer at the US Naval Postgraduate School.  He discussed, among other things, the current status of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and concerns about its use and the safety of that program.

Kidwai stated that multiple mechanisms existed to prevent the theft or loss of nuclear material.  Kidwai aslo stated that Pakistani bases where nuclear weapons and nuclear materials are held were equipped with security cameras; biometrics and access control; bullet-proof vehicles, high security walls; and quick reaction forces.

Who controls the nuclear program and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal?

Also Formed under former President Musharraf, Pakistan’s nuclear command and control organization consists of three branches:

– National Command Authority (NCA), consisting of the country’s ten highest decision makers; [photo above]

– Strategic Plans Division (SPD), which is the secretariat to the NCA and is in charge of developing and managing Pakistan’s nuclear capability in all dimensions;  [General Kidwai in the inset photo]

–  Strategic Forces Command (SFC) for each branch of the military, which is responsible for planning and control as well as operational directives for nuclear weapons deployment and use.

Over the past two years, Kidwai has acknowledged Pakistan’s poor record on nuclear proliferation.  And Kidwai has pointed out that this was due to the illegal actions of one rogue individual, A.Q. Khan.

Khan’s network sold secret nuclear technology to Iran, Libya, North Korea and Syria.  While there is meager information to suggest the former Benazir Bhutto government may have willingly turned a blind eye towards Khan’s activities, there is also some similarly meager information to suggest Khan did so at the behest of the former Bhutto government.

I’d love to see a document drop on this, does Pakistan have an FOIA procedure?

[For those interested, there is a news website devoted to A.Q. Khan.  Worth a visit.]

As Admiral Mullens tried to seek greater Pakistani-US cooperation, Mullens, and Holbrooke, Hillary and Obama have to face some basic facts, as stated by Kidwai in his Monterey address at the Navy Postgraduate School.   Lt. Gen. Kidwai asked, “How long will Pakistan be punished for the actions of one rogue individual?” He stressed that Pakistan is an important ally on the front line in the fight against terrorism, and that the United States needs to not discriminate against Pakistan.  Additionally Pakistan has a large and growing need for nuclear energy, with a goal of going from its current 19,500 megawatts per year to 163,000 megawatts in the next 25 years. Because Pakistan does not have a nuclear industry in the private sector, Lt. Gen. Kidwai stated that under the safeguards established by Musharraf,  there would be no danger of nuclear technology leaking into the wrong hands.  [Additionally, not addressed by Kidwai in Monterey, for obvious reasons, it has to be noted that the ISI was dealt with by Musharraf, but he was removed before he could implement more draconian procedures to rid the ISI of Islamaist sympathizers and enablers.  Pakistan President Zardari presently lacks the leadership capability and the political allies within Pakistan to try to do the same.]

Lt. Gen. Kidwai concluded by saying that Pakistan desires a world where it would not need to possess nuclear weapons, but due to the actions of hostile countries in the region, that eventuality seems unlikely. However, Pakistan’s Nuclear Command Authority will ensure that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will never pose a threat to world security through use or proliferation.

Kidwai is a realist, and a Pakistani loyalist.  As for Pakistan using its nukes, Kidwai has stated that Pakistan would use atomic weapons only “if the very existence of Pakistan as a state is at stake,” Kidwai proceeded to give details. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are aimed solely at India. In case that deterrence fails, they will be used if:

a) India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory (space threshold).
b) India destroys a large part either of its land or air forces (military threshold).
c) India proceeds to the economic strangling of Pakistan (economic strangling).
d) India pushes Pakistan into political destabilisation or creates a large-scale internal subversion in Pakistan (domestic destabilisation).

Walking on eggshells across South Asia must be a nerve-wracking task…

This past January, Asia Times looked at   Keeping Pakistan’s arsenal safe from extremists.

Pakistan chooses its nuclear weapons staff from the Punjab, an area of the country less likely to be populated by Islamists. Also, applicants for nuclear jobs are screened for psychological problems as well as questionable affiliations. Once on the job, staff members are rotated to cut potential conspiracies off at the root.

The article explains, a security progam is only as good as those administering it…and Kidwai appears to fill the bill.

Another factor to consider is that all indications are that Pakistan has not uploaded it nuclear weapons to any delivery system.  The warheads are kept separate from their missiles.  One of the weapons depots is in the Pakistan town of Wah, a city in Punjab, southwest of Islamabad.  I visited Google Earth, and found a heavily secured military depot on the western edge of Wah.  From the air, it appears on par with other such depots within NATO.  If Pakistan’s nukes are to be protected it will be up to Kidwai, at the forefront.

As backup,  this man, Pakistan Armed Forces Chief of Staff,  General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani

General Kiyani is a graduate of the United States Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, and is quite well known in senior US military circles.  Does this mean he is a toadie to the American military?  Not in the least.  he is by all accounts a Pakistani nationalist, if he does discuss politics at all, and foremost is loyal to Pakistan, its armed forces, its traditions and understands full well that at many times in Pakistan’s history the only entity that kept Pakistan safe was the professional military officers corps.  Kiyani is a man to be reckoned with, not fawned over, nor bribed or to be publicly rebuked by any foreign official.

The room for error is slim…and Kiyani and the senior leadership of the Pakistani Armed Forces are not likely to wish to be treated as puppets of the United States.  While enjoying good relations with the Bush Administration under Musharraf,  according to the Pakistani press, in tomorrow’s edition…yes, it is a morning in Islamabad…the US Afghanistan-Pakistan linkage is unscrambling...from the Pakistan Daily Times,  “The big idea behind the Obama government’s Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy was that the two countries are inextricably linked.  The key to stabilizing Afghanistan was a stable and cooperative Pakistan.” And adds, “This is not South Vietnam.”  In ways not only concerning a Pakistani “fall of Saigon” scenario,  that statement has many meanings.

Washington, take note.

As for our involvement in helping to secure Pakistan’s arsenal, if it comes to that, in October 2001, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) presented its recommendations.   There have been rumors that Pakistan’s nukes have already been relocated outside the country, but I have grave doubts this has occurred.  A few days ago, Obama stated he is confident that Pakistan’s arsenal is safe. Being outside the loop, and the Beltway, I am not sanguine with that Obama statement insofar as the United States is concerned.  On the one hand, there is planning that might include a United States “team” arriving in Pakistan and spiriting away their nuke arsenal.  But, the actual arrival of US special operations forces and C-17′s at any Pakistani airfield or military base unless handled with the full agreement of both Kidwai and Kiyani and Pakistan’s National Command Authority, and in complete secrecy,  no leaks from Washington, such  could have disastrous results for any government in Islamabad.

It  might assuage fears in the West, but it would signal a complete collapse of Pakistan as a political entity and energize the Taliban and other extremists to push forward to secure all of Pakistan for their own Islamist regime.  The human exodus of non-Taliban Pakistanis would be huge.  India would be the only logical port of entry for these, a complete reverse of the 1947 Partition of former British India, which was a long and bloody process on both sides, and what incentive would India have to accept millions of fleeing Pakistani’s?.

General David Petraeus stated this week, Pakistan has two weeks to act, and “Gen Petraeus reportedly said that “we’ve heard it all before” from the Pakistanis and he is looking to see concrete action by the government to destroy the Taliban in the next two weeks before determining the next course of action for the US.”

This sort of public leaning on Islamabad may be good for the image of doing something, anything, to stem the Taliban offensive, from the Washington, DC, inside the Beltway crowd, but I have grave doubts that this is being well received in Islamabad, nor by the Rawalpindi community nor anywhere within the Pakistani armed forces.  But, to his credit, Petraeus did say the  “Pakistani army, led by Gen Ashfaq Kayani, is “superior” to the civilian government.”  In this, too, there are many meanings.

I’d hope that beneath the radar sincere officials are talking one-on-one and putting in place the means for Pakistan to stem the Taliban tide, and to keep the White House from condemning Pakistan at every turn…and by extension, working to get the media out of the business of trying to complicate the process by haranging and condeming Pakistan for any actions it takes, as well.  Either we assist where we are able, or allow Pakistan to deal with what they are facing daily.   The old Army maxim “lead, follow, but get out of the way” is something we need to understand.

Nonetheless…these two generals have to be on board with any decision the United States makes, and be part of the pre-operational side of that planning, not offered a fait accompli after Washington has already made their decision.

As their names, Kidwai and Kiyani,  start to appear more and more in the worldwide press and media as this crisis in Pakistan continues…well, at least now you know who they are.

Next subject on my desk…the new North Korean leadership announced by P’yongyang this morning.

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