Please take pleasure in knowing that this post went out to a great deal of people today. I personally sent this post to over 100 people, and dozens of them will send it out to people on their own personal favorite’s list.. This is a really good piece of work my friend, and will be read by many. If you’re like me, and you look at the total comments as a measuring stick, it’s easy to wonder if the time invested is worth the effort. Great work!

For the EDitor: I second Knucklehead’s wish for a Green Room sidebar making these posts visible on the front page! The name of the poster and their headline would suffice.

I have to go out for a few hours but I’ll have more questions and a response when I get back.

aengus on April 29, 2009 at 1:49 PM

From my readings, I do not believe that Europe yet, has given this a thorough examination, more focused on keeping the Gas pipeline open at all costs. Today, via Interfax, Putin has called for an international consortium to manage that pipeline. Something to think about. It would sever that Russo-Ukraine tete a tete…but, in establishing this “international consortium” it would make Ukraine becoming a full member of NATO more difficult rather than easier. Having many European nations involved in the decision making process would shove Ukraine aside from being able to maintain and control an internal resource. Thus, Ukraine, in this instance, would have no say in what is rightfully its own.

Putin understands that getting the Euros on his side united to prevent Ukraine from upsetting the status quo is a successful means to stop Ukraine from joining NATO…Ukraine joins, the pipeline gets shut down.

Once this step is complete, Putin can apply pressure on Ukraine in other subtle ways, thus robbing Ukraine of its de facto independence without firing a shot.

As for Ukraine sending its military abroad…again, from my readings and a few conversations with former colleagues, Ukraine reaps major benefits from this…training, experience, growing a modern post-Soviet military command structure, familiarity with NATO doctrine and tactic, and is able to say they stand alone as a free and independent nation not a Russian vassal state.

Yes, such is complicated, but the active participation of the United States is vital. And openly declaring that the United States will stop its military programs set for Ukraine to placate Russia in the hopes that Russian will stop Iran’s nuclear program, well, that does not indicate US resolve to be there for Ukraine. Some very interesting commentary in the Ukraine press since January. Well worth a web visit.

One slight objection though is that I’ve never seen any serious discussion on HA about the perils of Ukraine’s possible accession to NATO or even any recognition that it is a complicated issue.

Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: NATO at Sixty — Mission Implausible?

James George Jatras, Deputy Director, American Institute in Ukraine, Director, American Council for Kosovo:

Advocates of Ukraine’s accession to NATO have yet to confront the tough questions. First, nobody has yet explained where the billions, or perhaps tens of billions of dollars will be found to bring Ukraine’s military up to NATO standards. Such a transition would involve scrapping almost all of Ukraine’s current Soviet hardware and replacing it with NATO-operable equipment. It’s a bill Ukraine’s beleaguered economy can’t support, and U.S. taxpayers, hardly having an easy time with it either, shouldn’t support.

Secondly, a heavy majority of Ukraine’s citizens are opposed to NATO membership. One would think that for an alliance that is supposed to be a champion of democratic values that would be dispositive of the matter. Ukrainians’ reasons for opposing NATO are quite rational. A serious crisis over an attempt by “orange” forces to drag Ukraine into NATO would rip apart the fragile unity of a country where a very large part of the population feels much closer to Russia than to the NATO countries. Also, unlike earlier expansions of NATO, Ukraine’s accession would be regarded as a direct threat to Russia’s national security. Paris and Berlin are clearly focused on what might be possible countermeasures by Moscow. Kiev and Washington need to focus a bit as well.

Finally, more than anyone else, the Ukrainians need to ask what real price might be demanded for their contribution to NATO. Sending Ukrainian soldiers back to Iraq? Maybe someday to Iran? Of course, today Washington’s center of attention is Afghanistan. Ukrainians’ last involvement with that country was a few years ago, but I suspect it’s an experience few would be eager to repeat.

But, since you insist,

but he widened the war in afghanistan, did the G20 and the summit of americas, and hillary has also been traveling the globe since january.

Widened the war? Sending three brigades, most of whom are not yet on station, to one region of Afghanistan, while our NATO allies, other than the Canadians and Brits, are studiously avoiding contact with the Taliban AQ, or foreign jihadis, is widening the war? He did the G20 and Summit of the Americas and came away with what? Didn’t get anything from the G-20. Got a nice gift from Chavez, a book excoriating the United States? And most of the Latin American leaders dissed Obama at every turn…hence dissing the United States. Obama got from the G20 promises to promise at some point to maybe put more boots on the ground in the Af-Pak zone, but not this year? Got silence or rebuttal on economic subjects.

Hillary’s out of town trips? Her public critique in Islamabad, for example, in the middle of a rapidly fracturing of Pakistan was to tell the Paks that the US was responsible for the unrest in the Af-Pak region…and then calls on Pakistan to fix it? The Pakistan press is all over this one. Did nothing to settle the issue, nor contain it. Widened the resentment of the Pakis, as well.

Re: Gibb’s and the White House press briefings

scant if any attention has been reflected in those interminable Gibb’s gab sessions…

Traditionally, as done by other press spokespersons, these briefs are opened with policy pronouncements and establishing current White House actions or initiatives.

Gibb’s comes out and basically says “any questions?”

As an NCO instructor and later in government, as an official, one never asks “are their any questions,” nor even hints at it. “Are there any questions on the material covered today?” or “Are there any questions about a, b, or c?” is a much more effective way of getting knowledge transmitted more clearly.

The press spokesman is supposed to control the message…and Gibb’s is not..or maybe he is, just that the message has more to do with the new puppy or a non-photo op photo op, or deflecting the press from more salient issues.?

Besides, most of the fawning press at the White House would never dare to ask a salient question…Tapper maybe…but the rest?

Turkey is assisting the US military … and instead of praise from Obama for this contribution…Obama highlights a 100-year-old Ottoman-era tragedy, opening up wounds and causing new ones

Obama made his second European tour to be his new smart diplomacy, and in that he failed. A careful reading of the Euro press, and there is plenty of material out there, is one of shock and amazement, or amusement. This is the President America elected? If one pays attention to the Euro press, there is more and more “let’s go it alone” sentiment in Europe today than at any point after WWII. We are no longer a dependable ally. We are asking Europe to follow our lead and “invest” trillions of Euros to get themselves out of debt. And the Euros are balking, and wisely. In addition, individual European nations are chaffing at each other for various policies that are more nationalistic than Euro-centered. This should give all of us pause…a fractured Europe in the recent past has had terrible results.

Further, the fast growing threat of internal Islamic angst and acts driven by anger is making Europe more prone to act, and rashly. Turkey, a NATO ally and a secular government, has been slapped in the face too many times by Europe…used as a cheap source of labor and the butt of too many jokes…and for the time being, they still wish to modernize, still wish to have a secular government and society…and each time they get slapped down, the Islamists in Turkey have more ammunition to tell all Turks that Europe and the US don’t give a damn about us, and the sooner we join our Islamist brethren the sooner Turkey can realize its historic ambitions.

Obama’s trip to Turkey did not help Turkey…not one bit.

Iran continues to show that the United States has no power any longer to project itself in the region. Rightly or wrongly, this is perceived on the streets in the region.

Our declared intent to get out of Iraq, pushing the date of our leaving and not the readiness of Iraq, and Hillary’s pronouncement that things are going well…followed by a string of violent attacks in Baghdad, to include two today, shows Iran that Iraq still has no capability to defend itself…that and the firm knowledge that the Iraqi army is for internal defense only, small infantry units specifically, means that Iran could at her call, do what they wished the moment we are gone. Other nations in the region, Syria, for example want to see a neutered Iraq…for their own aims.

And former President Carter’s announcement that Syria wants to have peace with Israel rings hollow as Syria continues to stir things up in Lebanon, making it far easier for Hezbollah to act with impunity. Turkey…seeing our resolve in the region, is fashioning new ties with its arch-nemesis, Russia, as a means to find an ally should things go rotten in the region. Not us…Russia.

No, we can’t project power in the region. We can’t even eliminate a hodge-podge of Somali pirates preying on woirld-wide shipping off their coast. Not because we do not have the weapons, do not have the systems, and do not have the dedicated personnel to use them, but we lack leadership…and if Obama, hence the United States, cannot take care of the small things, as the leaders in the region can easily understand, how can Obama, hence the United States, handle the big things?

Leadership requires…well, leadership. Talk is the cheapest commodity any world leader can use. Action comes at a higher price. Standing firm to principles takes even more.

Thus far, in these first one hundred days…I’ve seen a lot of talk, little action, and no standing firm on principles…not Obama’s principles…but American principles that friends and potential friends in the region can see, understand and accept. In that vacuum, the radicals and jihadis and even those present leaders who merely want to maintain raw power, our weakness real or perceived is money in the bank for them.

I wish Ed would put this Green Room stuff on the main page in a side bar or something, so it’s more visable.

I suspect that Obama’s too interested in spending like a drunken frat boy and staging awesome photo shoots to understand that the international events he ignores will become the things that will shape his Presidency more than he ever could.

While Obama Slept:

maybe you guys slept, but he widened the war in afghanistan, did the G20 and the summit of americas, and hillary has also been traveling the globe since january.

scant if any attention has been reflected in those interminable Gibb’s gab sessions…

gibbs talks about whatever he’s asked about. why aren’t our journalist asking about the egyptian succession? i dunno. it doesn’t mean the administration is not working on these issues.

Turkey is assisting the US military … and instead of praise from Obama for this contribution…Obama highlights a 100-year-old Ottoman-era tragedy, opening up wounds and causing new ones

obama was criticized on these pages for supporting turkey’s EU membership. he was criticized for his “apologetic” speech in the turkish parliament. also, he was actually criticized for not calling the armenian genocide as such.

Iran continues to show that the United States has no power any longer to project itself in the region. Rightly or wrongly, this is perceived on the streets in the region.

didn’t we, like, “win” in iraq? if we can’t project power anymore in the region, wasn’t the surge a colossal failure?

No thought for real solutions or real progress, only for the appearance of the thing. Not surprising for one of his specific background.

Keep up the great work, coldwarrior. I look forward to your insightful posts and comments.

saL on April 29, 2009 at 12:16 PM

The first link…Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The second link…anything that smacks of a war against Islam.

The effectiveness of “the Enemy of My Enemy…” It has in our recent past shown that a Kurdish Islamist group in Trukey will fashion links to an Iranian group in Lebanon, which in turn fashions links to a Somali group, and on down the line. Doesn’t even have to be hard links or physical links, but mere links in philosophy.

Thus, as Hosni Mubarak continues to ferrete out and crackdown on dissidents, some with actual MB ties or those who may merely sympathize with MB or at least MB’s goals…they may see Egypt in the pocket of the US, and the US is killing Moslems in the Af-Pak zone…the Taliban, or Arab jihadis, and decide to exact revenge or stir up things locally, not being able to physically assist in the Af-Pak zone.

That old “Global War on Terror” was indeed global…yet, too many have dismissed it as merely being two wars…Iraq and Afghanistan, iognoring the global implications of the threat, and global implications of the reaction to that threat, believingin isolation that solving one at a time would make everything better all over.

A false rubric.

Radical Moslems are united, and “moderate” Moslems are quietly going along…and a friend of their enemy is their enemy. And, an enemy of their enemy is their friend.

I can literally hear the wolves salivating.

Can you imagine what the world is going to look like and more importantly where America will be standing by November 2012?

I need to find a place to hibernate.

Bruno Strozek on April 29, 2009 at 12:02 PM

Find that happy place…think of unicorns and fairy dust…

Feel better? Me, neither.

CK MacLeod on April 29, 2009 at 11:05 AM

Yes, who is manning the Black Swan lookout post?

As I’m sure you know well – probably in that material you mention leaving out – there’s a lot more that could wrong: We spent 60 years extending our influence globally, widening the realm of economic and political freedom. It seems we’re about to find out what happens when we stop leaning forward, and start pulling backward. Pick a spot on the globe, and there’s a problem. That’s what global reach is all about.

Seems to me that there are 3 main scenarios:

1) Graceful Degradation: Neglecting the world and encouraging our enemies works as the utopians envision, and we settled into a multi-polar arrangement with commerce and immediate US interests largely unimpaired, perhaps even benefited. Bad things will continue to happen to good people, but we can’t be bothered when we’re busy cleaning solar panels and making the oceans recede.

2) How Things Usually Go When Empires Decline: It’s a disaster, and we’ll struggle to restore lost ground – the process could go on for generations, with lots of great TV, but probably a lot of chaos and misery, too.

3) Faster Decline/Radical Re-Orientation: It’s a disaster, and we’ll struggle to implement a whole new security posture for a post-unipolar world.

It may remain very difficult to tell which way we’re going, but, to the extent that it’s closer to “1,” with the utopians in control anyway and doing alright, then who cares what we think?

We might as well figure out how to handle 2 and 3 if and when the time comes that someone asks us for our input.

NaCly dog on April 29, 2009 at 10:37 AM

Zimbabwe is a threat only insofar as it’s leadership model and its economics being parroted by this White House.

I’m not worried about Zimbabwe, yet. There it took a long time (15 yrs.) to isolate the few remaining producing farmers. In the US the forces of darkness seem to be less powerful. We had over 48% of voters that didn’t drink the Kool-aid.

Email me my friend….

coldwarrior,

I will look forward to the rest of this story!

Keemo on April 29, 2009 at 8:33 AM

andycanuck on April 29, 2009 at 9:23 AM

NaCly dog on April 29, 2009 at 9:45 AM

I appreciate the comments…just posted this thing, too.

For what it is worth, I spent the wee hours of this morning cutting and distilling to get it to this length. Have enough leftover material for several others, I think.

I hope I made a solid point, nonetheless.

Rovin on April 29, 2009 at 10:03 AM

I’m a foreign policy and security wonk…I know beans about economics besides what I learned in Econ 101-103.

Heard yesterday, cannot find the source, have been looking feverishly, too, that since Obama came to office, we are spending or are committed to over $35 billion a day…perhaps more.

$35 billion x 365 days…OK, let’s be fair, minus Saturdays and Sundays…x270 days = $9.5 trillion? Sure. that’s an outside figure, and not likely to happen over all fours years, right?

Regardless, seems the days of Weimar or Zimbabwe are indeed upon us.

OK, Let’s wrap it up…

Great post CW! You’ve articulated much of what Biden said about Obama being tested and yet the general public has no idea. Of course our pathetic mainstream media will tell a different story by glorifying all of Obama’s accomplishments while forgetting to mention putting this nation in permanent financial debt along with weakening our standing/strengths with his world appeasement tour.

May I also include “while Obama slept”:

The U.S. Economy was down 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year while:

700 billion has been infuesed in TARP money
400 billion FY 2009 (8000 earmarks)
700 billion in a stimulas/pork filled bill
3.2 Trillion FY 2010 Pending in the House
650 Billion in new government proposed health care take-over, (down payment only)
Energy and Education policies still on the table (estimated cost–800 billion to 1.5 trillion)

5 TRILLION 650 BILLION BEFORE EDUCATION AND ENERGY POLICIES ARE ADDED. (I’m sure I’ve missed a few hundred billion somewhere)
All this while the media hypes about the swine flu and torture memos, and the Specter defector???

My deepest worry is that both the next Russian supply lines and the current Pakistan supply route to Afghanistan will be cut simultaneously. Maybe as part of a new thrust into Georgia by Russia, with a push to Islamabad by the Taliban.

The 3 brigade build up in Afghanistan means more equipment, and more supplies needed. Obama would be rid of a substantial portion of forces that may oppose a radical move in America. And our external enemies would welcome our focus on our troops in a new katabasis.

Can we rescue the entire NATO force?
How much supplies and equipment could we loose?

This event is unlikely, but I do not have a feeling that this scenario is impossible.