A new CNN poll reminds us that politics hasn’t actually changed all that much in thirty years — it’s still the economy, stupid. As we turn the corner into a presidential election year, voters have the sunniest view of the US economy in nearly twenty years. Not coincidentally, Donald Trump’s competitive position against all Democratic challengers continues to improve as well, especially where it might matter the most:
As 2019 comes to a close, the US economy earns its highest ratings in almost two decades, potentially boosting President Donald Trump in matchups against the Democrats vying to face him in next year’s election, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Overall, 76% rate economic conditions in the US today as very or somewhat good, significantly more than those who said so at this time last year (67%). This is the highest share to say the economy is good since February 2001, when 80% said so.
Remarkably, even as the House prepared to impeach him, Trump’s approval rating climbed to its highest level of seven months in the CNN series. That’s not to say it was a spectacular result — 43/53 is an objectively mediocre-to-poor rating — but in October’s poll Trump got 42/56. If nothing else, Trump’s approval rating hasn’t been harmed by impeachment, and the suggestion is that voters might care more about the economy than Ukraine-Gate.
The movement on the economy is even more dramatic than CNN’s report suggests. In August, the split was 65/33, with 22% saying it was “somewhat poor” and 11% saying “very poor.” Only 24% thought it was “very good.” This month, “very good” jumped up eleven points, the same amount that the overall “poor” number declined. That’s not just a shift in viewpoint but also of enthusiasm.
And guess who that helps? CNN’s Harry Enten provides a rather energetic analysis of the numbers:
76% of Americans rate economic conditions in the US today as very or somewhat good, according to a new CNN poll. This is the highest share to say the economy is good since February 2001, when 80% said so. https://t.co/8Uq9N1fLM8 pic.twitter.com/4hhiC56wfm
— CNN (@CNN) December 20, 2019
As perceptions of the economy have brightened, the poll also shows matchups between the top Democrats vying for the 2020 nomination and Trump tightening. In October, four Democrats tested in hypothetical head-to-head contests with Trump among registered voters lead by anywhere from six to 10 percentage points, all advantages outside that poll’s margin of sampling error.
Now, just two of those candidates hold edges at or above the error margin: former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump nationally 49% to 44%, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders tops Trump 49% to 45%. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg each run about even with the President.
Note the caveat “nationally” in that report. As Enten says above, we do not hold a national election for the presidency but instead fifty state elections. In the fifteen states that matter, Trump has edged out in front:
Across battleground states (a group which includes the 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016) — all four Democrats run within the margin of error of Trump. Biden and Trump tie at 47% each, while Trump holds 48% support to Warren’s 46%, 48% to Buttigieg’s 43%, and 49% to Sanders’ 45%.
Voters also tend to see all of the Democratic contenders less favorably, too. The results of the poll released earlier this week showed declines for nearly all of them, with Biden, Warren, and Sanders all under water and Buttigieg at 27/27. Enten warns that this may not matter as much as it did in 2016, as voters who view Trump negatively are much more likely to vote against him than in 2016 when the alternative was Hillary Clinton. But just how true that will be with a strong economy and relative peace remains to be seen.
One thing is for sure — voters aren’t factoring Ukraine-Gate into these calculations. Perhaps Democrats might want to consider the meaning of that.
