The long diplomatic effort to get Turkey to cooperate in the fight against ISIS may finally bear some fruit. According to the Washington Post, the US has agreed to a de facto buffer zone in northern Syria that Turkey long demanded as a formal concession against the Assad regime in Damascus. In exchange, coalition sorties could begin soon from Incirlik, which would add hours to their flight times and greatly increase flexibility in targeting ISIS assets on the ground:

The Obama administration is weighing the opening of a new front in the air war against the Islamic State in Syria, part of an offensive to push back militants along the western part of Syria’s border with Turkey and create a relatively safe zone for U.S.-backed Syrian rebel forces to move in.

Under the plan, U.S. aircraft flying from Turkey’s Incirlik air base would target positions the militants currently hold along the border north of Aleppo, eastward toward the besieged town of Kobane. Turkish special forces would move into the area to assist the targeting and help Syrian opposition fighters consolidate their hold on the territory. …

The proposal would at least partly address Turkey’s long-standing desire for a protected buffer zone inside Syria along the entire 511-mile border, while providing the faltering rebel fighters with a much-needed boost.

In exchange, U.S. access to ­Incirlik for the use of manned warplanes and armed drones throughout Syria would add as much as six hours to the time that individual strike aircraft could spend “on station,” locating and reaching targets. Aircraft currently striking Islamic State positions in northern and eastern Syria fly from bases in the Persian Gulf, a distance of about 1,000 miles.

“That access is huge,” a U.S. official said. At the same time, having Turkish special forces on the ground inside Syria would not only “breathe life into the Free Syrian Army” but also provide “more capable folks to help with targeting” for airstrikes.

If this seems long overdue, it’s only because readers have paid attention. Turkey helped amplify the ISIS problem by allowing its territory to be used as free transit for Islamist fighters. The Erdogan government wanted to see the revolution against Bashar al-Assad to succeed, so it allowed those fighters who later became foot soldiers for ISIS to flood into the region. Thanks to that opening — which has also been exploited by people recruiting fighters and wives from the West — the job of “degrading and destroying” ISIS has been made that much more difficult.

The buffer zone has been Turkey’s dream long before ISIS arose. They could have taken it themselves without getting permission from the anti-ISIS coalition, but that would have complicated the problems of targeting ISIS units. It also would have relieved the Syrian Kurds that fight on the front lines against ISIS, an outcome that Turkey clearly didn’t want, given its own fight against Kurdish separatists. Seizing a buffer zone now may end up putting even more Kurds under Erdogan’s thumb, and it’s not exactly certain that this will make the situation better in northern Syria or even more confusing.

Speaking of confusion, the Russians are playing one of their cards in Syria now, too. According to AFP, Moscow has brought together the Assad regime and at least some rebel groups into talks that might leave Assad in power and have the rebels on which the Western strategy relies sitting on the sidelines:

The Syrian regime and several key opponents have agreed to move towards new peace talks mediated by Russia, sources on both sides told AFP.

The initial agreement came after separate delegations led by prominent opposition figure Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem visited Moscow in November.

Buthaina Shaaban, government delegation member and adviser to President Bashar al-Assad, called meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “very positive”.

“The Russians want to take the initiative for a real search for political solution through dialogue. They got the agreement from the Syrian government,” she said by phone from Damascus.

Alongside Iran, Russia is the Assad regime’s main backer in a civil war pitting loyalists against Western and Arab-backed rebels.

This could produce an alliance of forces against ISIS, too — but on Russian and Iranian terms rather than Western and Arab terms. Neither Iran nor Russia want a Sunni caliphate operating in the region, where it can restart unrest in the Caucasus. Iran wants Sunni power minimized to the greatest extent possible in any outcome, especially in Iraq. The US and its partners have set their hopes on getting these same Sunni militias to coalesce against both ISIS and Assad, but if Russia gets its way, the West may end up eating a lot of its words over the past three years and end up with an uncomfortable partnership again in Damascus — which would drive a wedge between the US and its Sunni Arab allies.

For the moment, though, Turkey’s apparently moving ahead in its plan to finally do something about the problem it helped create and which it has ignored ever since. Their reluctance produced a scolding for Turkey for its inaction from a surprising source this weekend:

In his first visit to Turkey as pontiff, Pope Francis affirmed military force was justified to stop the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria as he urged Muslim leaders to condemn the group’s “barbaric violence.”

As part of a visit meant to strengthen inter-faith ties, Francis called upon Turkish political and religious leaders to denounce ISIS, the Associated Press reported.

“As religious leaders, we are obliged to denounce all violations against human dignity and human rights,” Francis told Mehmet Gormez, Turkey’s top cleric and other religious officials who gathered at the government-run Religious Affairs Directorate.

“As such, any violence which seeks religious justification warrants the strongest condemnation because the omnipotent is the God of life and peace.”

Maybe the embarrassment of being lectured by the Pope on military pusillanimity tipped the scales. They’d better start soon, before Russia and Iran make Turkish interests entirely moot.