Today’s Rasmussen survey in Minnesota’s gubernatorial race will likely be the last before the election, and it sheds little light on how the outcome will look.  DFL nominee Mark Dayton holds a three-point lead over Republican Tom Emmer, 44/41, barely changing the previous 40/38 poll and still within the survey’s margin of error.  Tom Horner has faded in the race as the Independence Party spoiler, going from 15% two weeks ago to 10% today, the biggest change.

As in the previous survey, the demographics are tight.  Emmer has a plurality of men (47/36); Dayton, a majority of women (50/36).  In the three-way race, the big issue will be where Tom Horner gets his votes on Election Day.  In this poll, Horner gets 6% from the GOP, 5% from the DFL, and 27% of independents.  Emmer actually edges both candidates among the latter with 31% to Dayton’s 28%.

Rasmussen has changed the sampling of its poll in regards to partisan splits.  I was curious in how they decided on an R+1 model in the last survey; this one has a D+5 sample advantage, 42/37/21.  That may have gone a little too far the other way, though.  The turnout model in the 2008 election, which gave Barack Obama a sixteen-point victory and Al Franken a seat in the US Senate, was 40/36/25, according to CNN’s exit poll.  Are Democrats that enthused about this election that they will turn out harder in 2010?  I’m here in Minnesota and I don’t see much evidence of that; in fact, while the momentum doesn’t seem as obvious here, I’d guess that the political winds here are blowing towards the GOP, especially in the Congressional districts.

Dayton, meanwhile, has had other bad news.  On Wednesday, a former DFL candidate for the Senate seat endorsed Horner over Dayton:

Saying he will put “the state before the party,” former Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mike Ciresi announced on Tuesday that he will back Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner.

“It’s difficult for a Democrat sometimes to stand up and say you are going to endorse someone else,” Ciresi said at a Capitol news conference. “But when the choice is so clear to this state, it’s an easy choice.”

With just two weeks before the election, the well-known Twin Cities attorney became the first big-name Democrat to break ranks with the party and support Horner. Horner, a former Republican, has worked to frame himself as a common-sense moderate who appeals to all political stripes. Until now, his biggest other-party supporters have been Republicans, such as former Gov. Arne Carlson and a slate of former GOP legislators.

The Rasmussen poll was taken at least in part before Ciresi’s endorsement was announced.  That may be enough to push some DFL voters into Horner’s corner and perhaps energize some Republicans to get behind Emmer and hit the polls on November 2nd.  In a race this close, that could make all the difference.

Update: Mike Huckabee endorsed Emmer last night:

“Huck PAC and I are pleased to support Tom Emmer for Governor of Minnesota. Tom is a family man, a small businessman and has served as a State Representative since 2004.

Tom shares our conservative values, like the sanctity of life, and traditional marriage. In fact, as a legislator, Tom have voted 100% pro-life and actually introduced numerous bills and amendments to protect the lives of the unborn. Also, Tom consistently supported the constitutional marriage amendment that would define and solidify traditional marriage as being between one man and one woman.  …

Tom wants to bring back true fiscal responsibility, and will stop the tax-and-spend cycle by calling for a balanced budget. Tom will treat state government spending just like Minnesotans treat their own budgets – he will accept a government spending bill until the deficit is eliminated.”