Card Check a dead letter?

The Wall Street Journal detects a marked decrease in enthusiasm among the Democratic majority in the Senate for Card Check. Until now, support came easy for people like Mark Pryor as long as they knew that Republicans would block the bill from becoming law. Now that they have an almost filibuster-proof majority, Democrats have begun to think twice about becoming the party that killed the secret ballot:

Paradoxically, it’s Mr. Reid’s bigger majority that is now hurting him. In 2007, he got every Democrat (save South Dakota’s Tim Johnson, who was out sick) to vote for cloture. But it was an easy vote. Democrats like Mr. Pryor knew the GOP held the filibuster, and that Mr. Bush stood ready with a veto. Now that Mr. Reid has 58 seats, red-state Democrats in particular are worried they might actually have to pass this turkey, infuriating voters and businesses back home.

Mr. Pryor isn’t alone. Fellow Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln voted for cloture in 2007 but is now messaging Mr. Reid that she’s not eager for a repeat. She recently said she doesn’t think “there is a need for this legislation right now,” that the country has bigger problems. What she didn’t mention is that she is also up for re-election next year, and that one potential GOP challenger, Tim Griffin, is already vowing to make card check an issue. South Dakota’s Tim Johnson, Nebraska’s Ben Nelson and others face similar pressure. And it seems unlikely new Senate arrivals such as Colorado’s Mark Udall are eager to make card check an opening vote, especially with visions of United Auto Worker bailouts fresh in voter minds.

Republican “moderates” aren’t eager for card check either. If this were a minimum-wage vote, Maine’s Susan Collins, for example, would be lining up. But polls show more than 80% of Americans disagree with eliminating union ballots. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has bolstered opposition by turning card check into a litmus test of Mr. Obama’s promise to work with the other side. Even Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, the lone GOP vote for card check in 2007, is backpedaling, worried about a 2010 primary challenge.

I’m not quite as sanguine about this newfound respect for the secret ballot as the WSJ. While the measure has definite baggage, the unions supply millions of dollars in political funding every election cycle. Card Check would eventually multiply that flow as unions forced dues from intimidated workplaces around the nation. Democrats would be the main beneficiaries, and while some short-term unpopularity might be the result, the long-term prospects for owning the political system will probably overcome any reticence from moderates.

However, the prevailing winds at the moment run against the unions. The massive auto bailouts have been seen primarily as union-rescue packages, which uses up what little goodwill they still have. Putting American workers at risk of intimidation tactics by stripping them of the secret ballot may be a little much in 2009, even for Democrats. If it does pass and turns out to be terribly unpopular, they will have no bipartisan cover for their sell-out to the unions.

That makes communication even more critical. Don’t let your Senator start this session of Congress without expressing your support for the American tradition of secret ballots and the security of American workers from thug tactics from management and unions alike.

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Card Check a dead letter?

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