I wish I could say that I am tired of the "Will he or won't he?" story about Biden's staying in the race, but let's face it: this is the most fascinating story of the past few years.
Nobody who reads Hot Air was surprised that Biden's dementia has finally been laid bare for all to see, but we never quite knew when everybody would acknowledge the truth. I thought Biden would stumble and bumble through the debate with the trajectory of the race unchanged, and as usual, my prediction turned out to be devastatingly wrong.
Let's just say I am better at 30,000-foot analyses than on-the-ground tactical ones.
For months, there has been a behind-the-scenes battle between the "get Biden to retire" Democrats (the Obama faction, mostly) and the "stick with the one who brought you to the dance" faction. Then the debate happened, and the latter group shrunk to a tiny subset of the party, with most of the members named "Biden."
Stories keep popping up in the media about major Democrat figures leaking that they want Biden out of the race ASAP, and with Congress back in Washington this week the pace at which these stories will come out is going to accelerate dramatically, if you can believe that.
Elected officials are panicking, donors are revolting (in more ways than one!), and even a few White House staffers are leaking to the press that Biden's brain is toast and that he has to drop out.
But so far, Joe Biden and his family haven't bought what they are selling. Biden is an immovable object.
We've been lectured frequently that inquiry into Hunter's drug addiction (and character more generally) is off-limits, cruel and irrelevant.
— Abigail Shrier (@AbigailShrier) July 7, 2024
Today, Hunter Biden is serving as "de facto gatekeeper" to the President.
So - pretty relevant, then.https://t.co/GObWornWCf
Jill Biden has been playing the Lady Macbeth role in this drama, and Hunter Biden is Michael Corleone. (Yes, as the author I get to do this mashup, and you can't stop me!). Hunter is, apparently, helping run the country. The parties in the White House must be lit!
These are largely the same people who developed and defended the insular media strategy that governs this administration. If senior advisors start resigning, it will only be because the party lost confidence in Biden and they want to work for future Dem admins. https://t.co/ehqd4n4jFN
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) July 7, 2024
Biden may be facing a revolt in his party, but it isn't clear that this changes a thing with regard to who will be on the Democrat ticket this November. Biden holds most of the cards--he has the delegates and prying them out of his hands--technically possible if you stretch the rules--will spark a Democrat civil war.
On the other hand, the Democrat Party is in many ways, an unstoppable force. It controls the majority of the money that Biden will need to run, and the donors loyal to the Party support Biden because he is the leader of the Democrats. If the Democrat Party chooses the suicidal path of a civil war, most of those donors and thus, campaign workers will stick with the Democrat Party, not the president.
It's a Mexican standoff, playing chicken, or a blinking contest. You choose your metaphor.
Fox News Alert: Multiple top Dems want Biden to exit after House Democrats held a virtual meeting today over concerns about the President, Fox’s @ChadPergram tells @GriffJenkins pic.twitter.com/8mUf0iBdjG
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) July 7, 2024
Democrats keep hoping that Biden will step aside for the "good of the party," but that assumes Biden gives a crap about the good of the party or the country. He doesn't. His family business for decades has been selling influence to make his family rich enough that his son can blow millions of dollars on hookers and blow--the same son who is now, as Ed called him, the regent.
.@mirandadevine: "I think people haven't quite given the significance to Hunter Biden's presence in the White House that it deserves." pic.twitter.com/ZiDc2zK8Mt
— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) July 7, 2024
Biden doesn't care about duty, honor, or country. It isn't even clear that he cares for his reputation anymore. Or should I say his family doesn't care, since Biden is living in an alternate universe? They are pillaging the country and the White House.
I could easily be wrong, but I think that if the Democrats want Biden out they will have to exercise the nuclear option: threatening to or even actually invoking the 25th Amendment, in which Kamala Harris and Biden's cabinet declare Biden unable to carry out the duties of the president RIGHT NOW.
Crazy Nancy is on CNN claiming it's Biden who "has the stamina" and President Trump has "dementia" 🤡 pic.twitter.com/2aJf3ZCnJw
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 30, 2024
But even if the Democrats threaten to depose Biden from his office, it's not clear he wouldn't dare them to try. Why not? It would be a kamikaze move--it's hard to see how the country doesn't recoil in horror at this further admission that Biden hasn't been capable of doing the job. Every single cabinet member will be permanently stained, both because they participated in the hoax but also because they stabbed their guy in the back.
It's a mess. Morning Consult/Bloomberg threw Biden a lifeline with an encouraging poll this weekend, at least in some of the battleground states and in striking distance in most of them.
#NEW @MorningConsult / Bloomberg News Poll:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 7, 2024
MICHIGAN
Biden 48% (+5)
Trump 43%
.
WISCONSIN
Biden 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 46% (+3)
Biden 43%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 48% (+3)
Biden 45%
.
NEVADA
Trump 48% (+3)
Biden 45%
.
PENNSYLVANIA…
He's still losing but not dead yet. This isn't panic territory, at least.
Of course, as a practical matter, it seems impossible for Biden to win after the past 10 days, but this further's the president's narrative that he can recover.
Hence, the unstoppable force (the Democrat establishment and donors) vs. the immovable object (the Biden Crime Family).
Democrats have no good choices.
— David Deming (@profdeming) July 8, 2024
As far as I know, nobody has solved the paradox of which overcomes the other, and I, for one, have no idea which will come out on top this time either.
I expect both to lose out.
But, given my utter inability to get a prediction right, I predict a Biden victory and a Democrat sweep in the House and Senate.
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