The latest wet blanket to comment on Donald Trump’s electoral chances is … Donald Trump
posted at 2:41 pm on August 12, 2016 by Duane Patterson
This will get the Trump supporters in a dither. Normally, whenever anyone dares mention the polling, both state and national, that doesn’t exactly paint a rosy picture, the reaction from Trump nation is that they’re rooting for HIllary, we’re elitists, nobody cares what we think, the poll is bogus, and usually something else that’s not polite to say in print.
Last night, at a rally in Sunrise, Florida, one of the few battleground states that Donald Trump is showing strength in currently, losing by only a point, according to both Fox 13/Opinion Savvy and Quinnipiac, Trump sounded a lot less Trumpy, and a lot more subdued when talking about the state of the race. Remember, at a rally, where you’re supposed to energize your crowd and tell them how great things are going, Trump had this to say, as reported in this morning’s New York Times in an article by Maggie Haberman and Nick Corasaniti.
“We’re having a tremendous problem in Utah,” Mr. Trump said, alluding to polls showing him in a fight with Mrs. Clinton in that normally deep-red state. “Utah is different.”
In Ohio, Mr. Trump said, “We need help.”
With regards to Pennsylvania, another battleground state Trump hopes to capture from Hillary Clinton, Trump sounded more optimistic, at least more optimistic than Susquehanna, Quinnipiac and NBC/WSJ/Marist, who see Hillary taking the Keystone State by 10, 10 and 11 points respectively.
In Pennsylvania, a state he once insisted he would win, he seemed now to hold out hope of an upset that was looking more like a long-shot. “Pennsylvania is a little further, but I think we’ll win Pennsylvania because of the miners,” he said, adding of Mrs. Clinton: “She wants the miners out of business. She wants steel out of business.”
Virginia, another state Mr. Trump is hopeful to win in order to get to 270 Electoral votes, was reported on by Ms. Haberman and Mr. Corasaniti this way.
And in Virginia, Mr. Trump said, the result would depend on whether evangelical Christian voters turn out to support him in November. In 2012, he said, evangelicals nationally did not vote in sufficiently large numbers for Mitt Romney.
“Had you voted for Romney, it would have been much closer,” he told his audience. “You didn’t vote for Romney, the evangelicals. Religion didn’t get out and vote.”
Mr. Trump pleaded with pastors and church leaders to organize their congregants and impress upon them the stakes in the election. “We’re going to hopefully win, and the way we’re going to win is you have to get your congregations and you have to get parishioners and you have to get all your people to go out and vote,” he said.
It’s hard to look for blue state pick-offs at this stage of the game, and Trump did not mention at the rally other red states that are currently within or very near margin of error, like Arizona, where Trump is only up 2, Georgia, where Trump is down 1.2, Kansas, where Trump is only up 5, and South Carolina, where Trump is only up 2, North Carolina, where he’s losing by 1, Iowa, where he’s down by 0.4, Nevada, where he’s down 2.3, or Ohio, where he’s down 2.6.
But forget about all of those other states. Focus on the states he mentioned – Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Utah. If the candidate himself is signaling trouble, and saying in various interviews different variations of, “If I lose, I lose, I’ll still have a good life,” doesn’t this at least raise red flags to at least some of the Trump faithful?