PPP poll of South Carolina: Trump 35, Cruz 18, Rubio 18, Kasich 10

posted at 2:01 pm on February 16, 2016 by Allahpundit

When was the last time Rubio had a poll this good? His top priority on Saturday night is finishing ahead of Cruz if possible, which would turbo-charge the media’s “Rubio comeback!” narrative. Failing that, he’ll happily accept third if Jeb Bush does so badly that his donors finally give up on him, clearing the way for Rubio to become the center-right choice in the race. According to PPP, Rubio’s got a shot at both: He’s tied with Cruz at 18 percent in a state that Cruz is supposed to do no worse than second in and Bush 2016 is on death watch at just seven percent here, tied with Ben Carson for fifth place. Trump’s going to win South Carolina, but the “electable” alternative may wake up on Sunday morning with his supporters newly energized and his “lane” suddenly clear ahead of Nevada.

The question is, if we did end up with a Trump/Rubio contest — and it’s hard to see how, given Cruz’s willingness and ability to run his race to the end — would the “electable” guy actually win? Trump’s numbers look awfully solid:

What’s striking about Trump’s support is how consistent it is across different demographic groups- he’s at 41% with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters, 40% with younger voters, 38% with men, 36% with self identified Republicans, 35% with Evangelicals, 35% with middle aged voters, 34% with non-Evangelicals, 31% with women, 30% with self identified independents, 30% with ‘very conservative’ voters, 30% with seniors, and 29% with moderates. He has a lead of some size within every single one of those groups, similar to what he was able to do in New Hampshire…

There’s been a lot of speculation that Trump might take on water after attacking George W. Bush on Saturday night, and Bush is relatively popular with 64% of voters seeing him favorably to 25% who have an unfavorable opinion. But despite his comments Trump is still leading even among voters with a positive view of GWB– he gets 26% to 22% for Cruz, 20% for Rubio, and 10% for Jeb Bush. And Trump is dominant with the swath of voters that doesn’t like George W. Bush, getting 57% to 12% for Kasich, and 11% each for Cruz and Rubio.

I’m going to take that as temporary vindication in the debate over whether Trump’s claim that Bush “lied” about WMDs Iraq is a problem or not. In a hypothetical three-way race in SC between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz, Trump ticks up to 40 percent while Rubio leaps to 28 percent, with Cruz a few points behind at 22 percent. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump leads Cruz by 10, 48/38, but he leads Rubio by just one, 46/45. The reason is obvious: Center-right voters backing Bush and Kasich strongly prefer Rubio to Trump (and Cruz) and so they unite behind him when forced to choose. That’s good news for Rubio vis-a-vis Cruz but great news for Trump, who’s built enough support in the sort of evangelical-heavy state that’s supposed to look dimly at him that he could, in theory, now beat even Mr. Electable Marco Rubio head to head. It’s taken for granted among some anti-Trump conservatives that the only thing keeping Trump alive at this point is the deep divisions among the rest of the party between Rubio, Cruz, Bush, and Kasich, but what if that isn’t as true as it used to be? What if Trump is now sufficiently attractive even to Republicans outside of his hardcore base that a match race between him and Rubio, the candidate who’s capable of appealing to the right and to the center, would essentially be a dead heat? This is why there’s good reason to believe that it really will be too late to stop Trump once he has another couple of wins under his belt. If he gains credibility with each victory, then wins in SC and in the SEC primary on March 1 may leave even Rubio at a durable disadvantage that’ll be hard to reverse later.

The other big news from this poll, which is flying below the radar in write-ups about it, is Cruz’s favorable rating. Hoo boy:

tc

That 42/48 split is the worst in the field, and the only numbers that are underwater among the six remaining Republicans. Cruz’s favorables were strong all through the second half of 2015, when, at one point, he was actually the most popular candidate in the field among Republicans. But that was ephemeral: Partly it was due to Cruz receiving high marks from Trump fans while their “bromance” was still in full bloom. Ever since Trump and Cruz went to war in January, Cruz’s favorables have been slipping and now PPP has them upside down. I think this is an outlier but there’s a chance that it isn’t given that (a) Trump is attacking Cruz relentlessly as a liar and a cheat in the media now and (b) Cruz has gone strongly negative against Trump and Rubio lately, which may be driving down perceptions of him. (It’s a weird irony that, among other candidates’ supporters, the only one that still rates Cruz favorably on balance is Ben Carson’s, whose campaign has been crying about Cruz’s “dirty trick” in Iowa two weeks ago.) Pay attention to other SC polls this week. If you see Cruz consistently pulling favorables that are lower than everyone else’s then he suddenly has a major, maybe insurmountable problem in trying to win a three-way race with Trump and Rubio — and maybe even a two-man race with Trump.

In lieu of an exit question, take a minute to scroll down to pages 12-15 of PPP’s crosstabs and note the difference between Trump’s (and, to a lesser extent, Cruz’s) voters and everyone else’s voters on a variety of cultural issues. I’ll leave you with these three as a sample:

mosgaycw


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Comments

Eventually the MSM is going to run nonstop stories about all the people Trump ripped off at Trump University and spread the ugly details of his divorces all over the news, but they may hold a lot back till after the primary hoping he wins.

TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 3:06 PM

the nile, pretty river!

nathor on February 16, 2016 at 3:11 PM

Locked in.

.
Sure thing Allah, Eeyore till the end. Everything stays locked in, nothing ever changes, right. I mean look at it HA is the same as it ever was.
.
Bmore on February 16, 2016 at 2:07 PM

.
I liked this version, better…

listens2glenn on February 16, 2016 at 3:12 PM

VorDaj on February 16, 2016 at 2:45 PM

Again, total lack of self-awareness. Cruz was criticized in that piece for promising to do things the GOP Congress couldn’t deliver.

Trump has promised to make Mexico pay for a wall, to ban US citizens from returning to the country if they’re Muslim, to tax Carrier for moving a plant to Mexico, to put a 45% tariff on China, and to “take Iraq’s oil.”

And when he’s asked about the impossibility of the things he’s promised, as the debate moderator did, his response is “I’ll get Congress and everyone else to agree with me.” Ludicrous.

Trump 2016: Because Trump 2016!

TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 3:14 PM

Politico Jeb Bush: Trump fears me

Bambi: “Godzilla Fears Me!” (shuddering sound of heavy foot stomp)

orangemtl on February 16, 2016 at 3:17 PM

nathor on February 16, 2016 at 3:11 PM

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/we-investigated-donald-trump-is-named-in-at-least-169-federal-lawsuits/

Trump University was ‘classic’ fraud, says prosecutor

A state prosecutor said Thursday that Trump University deserves an F in ethics.

Deputy Solicitor General Steven Wu told four Manhattan appellate judges that Trump’s much-maligned — and now-defunct — school promising instant wealth operated as a “fraudulent bait and switch scheme.”

“The fraud that was alleged here is a classic type of fraud,” Wu said. “This was not an exotic scheme.”

“This is a case about straightforward misrepresentations,” Wu added.

But Cruz is such a liar!

TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 3:18 PM

Wife and I Voted for Trump in SC today. Early voting. Just watched his rally speech in North Augusta, SC, and the crowd loved him. Never seen a candidate for any office that can connect with a crowd like Trump. He will be a great POTUS.

they lie on February 16, 2016 at 3:19 PM

But Cruz is such a liar!
.
TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 3:18 PM

.
You’re damn right, he is … pay no attention to the Tru– … I mean, “man behind the curtain.”

listens2glenn on February 16, 2016 at 3:21 PM

When was the last time Rubio had a poll this good?

I heard it was in high school, at a foam party.

2lbsTest on February 16, 2016 at 3:30 PM

Wait, what happened to Facebook?

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 3:30 PM

Trump has promised to make Mexico pay for a wall, to ban US citizens from returning to the country if they’re Muslim, to tax Carrier for moving a plant to Mexico, to put a 45% tariff on China, and to “take Iraq’s oil.”

We listen to these statements and shake our heads in disbelief. They’re absurd ideas, completely disconnected from reality. As if, among other problems, Mexico and China won’t retaliate?

His supporters listen to them and say they’ll make us great again.

It’s two different worlds colliding.

SteveMG on February 16, 2016 at 3:32 PM

Wait, what happened to Facebook?

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 3:30 PM

The implementation is just taking a little longer than they thought, but it’s still coming.

cynccook on February 16, 2016 at 3:45 PM

Wait, what happened to Facebook?

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 3:30 PM

Supposedly going to be turned on sometime today. Apparently Ed sent a brief message to the poster cyncook.

Some have suggested technical difficulties is the reason for the wait; others have are hopeful that the 8,000+ negative comments (QotD and announcement thread combined) may have changed some perceptions.

Doomberg on February 16, 2016 at 3:47 PM

The implementation is just taking a little longer than they thought, but it’s still coming.

cynccook on February 16, 2016 at 3:45 PM

They’re still trying to figure out how to embed “Farmville” into the interface…

Kensington on February 16, 2016 at 3:48 PM

They’re still trying to figure out how to embed “Farmville” into the interface…

Kensington on February 16, 2016 at 3:48 PM

Cool. Literally, the only thing I use FB is to play “Candy Crush”, well, and “Juice Jam.” Really, any of the games where sweets get the business.

cynccook on February 16, 2016 at 3:52 PM

You know what else is consistent? Trumps unfavorable. He has for months sported a 55+% unfavorable. The highest of anyone. Sure it might move to 54% but the last time was months ago.

As I have said, the media blitz has not even started on the GOP yet. We have seen how Trump reacts when his feet are put to the fire and people are asking tough questions. He becomes a child throwing a temper tantrum. As with the base, I think the floor is pretty solid of 15% or so being rather solid, his floor for the unfavorable seems to be very solid too.

So unless someone can explain to me how a person is going to get elected with at best 45% of the popular vote…. Im all ears.

watertown on February 16, 2016 at 3:57 PM

Jeb is like Elmer Fudd to Trump’s being Bugs Bunny

avi natan on February 16, 2016 at 4:01 PM

I Also like to add the only one person who actually does have much room to grow and actually has a chance as of right now is Rubio. He polls well vs both Sanders and Hillary, and also has one of the lowest unfavorable of around 30%.

watertown on February 16, 2016 at 4:03 PM

Yep, to read this article, Trump’s already got South Carolina wrapped up. I mean, leading 35% to 18%, right? Just like how Trump led the last 14 polls before Iowa and…OH WAIT!

Bob Davis on February 16, 2016 at 2:46 PM

I’m not in the Trump camp but I think your statement is incorrect.. Unless all of those polls were like two days before the caucus.
I recall that Cruz was leading by a couple of points for a while before then.. For some time.. Then just at the last moment one (maybe two) polls said that Trump was up a couple of points..

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong..

Al Hall on February 16, 2016 at 4:07 PM

Two yuuuuge polls are due out tonight.

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 4:08 PM

We listen to these statements and shake our heads in disbelief. They’re absurd ideas, completely disconnected from reality.

Yeah, good point: Because Bernie’s free college for everyone, and Jeb the Squish purporting to demonstrate America’s strengths as a dedicated conservative are totally realistic.

orangemtl on February 16, 2016 at 4:17 PM

I’m not in the Trump camp but I think your statement is incorrect.. Unless all of those polls were like two days before the caucus.
I recall that Cruz was leading by a couple of points for a while before then.. For some time.. Then just at the last moment one (maybe two) polls said that Trump was up a couple of points..

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong..

Al Hall on February 16, 2016 at 4:07 PM

No, you are correct. In the last week there were maybe 3-4 polls showing Trump about +5 (the Selzer poll, supposedly the gold standard in Iowa, was what convinced everyone Trump was winning there).

The situation was very different in New Hampshire where Trump’s numbers hardly budged and he ended up overperforming. It may have had a lot to do with the primary vs. caucus format. South Carolina is a primary.

You can see which ones are primary and which ones are caucuses here: https://www.gop.com/2016-gophq/event_schedule/?schedule_type=primary

If Trump wins South Carolina, then Cruz and Rubio will likely have to fight it out for the Minnesota, Colorado, and Alaska caucuses on Super Tuesday. Rubio in particular has to prove he can actually win a state.

Doomberg on February 16, 2016 at 4:18 PM

I thought this was switching over to Facebook comments?

Mercyneal on February 16, 2016 at 4:18 PM

Indiana Jim on February 16, 2016 at 2:22 PM

So Trump’s supporters have no idea what Trumps says or don’t care. That’s not exactly news.

TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 2:31 PM

Nope. It’s his detractors, who keep insisting that we should listen to what Trump said in 1999, who don’t listen to what he says now. Well, except for the “gotcha” headlines, that target his haters, and get them all wee-wee’d up, by taking what he says now and distorting beyond all recognition.

JannyMae on February 16, 2016 at 4:29 PM

There’s been a lot of speculation that Trump might take on water after attacking George W. Bush on Saturday night, and Bush is relatively popular with 64% of voters seeing him favorably to 25% who have an unfavorable opinion. But despite his comments Trump is still leading even among voters with a positive view of GWB–

You were told again, and again that immigration was THE issue, but nobody believed us, and the GOP thought it was so clever, and didn’t offer a candidate who addressed that issue, well how did that game work out for you GOP?

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 4:32 PM

So Trump’s supporters have no idea what Trumps says or don’t care. That’s not exactly news.

TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 2:31 PM

How silent are you going to be when the GOP caves on Scalia’s replacement, and they will. Cruz will resist, and good on him for it, but the GOP will cave.

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 4:34 PM

I Also like to add the only one person who actually does have much room to grow and actually has a chance as of right now is Rubio. He polls well vs both Sanders and Hillary, and also has one of the lowest unfavorable of around 30%.

watertown on February 16, 2016 at 4:03 PM

I’ll vote Democrat just as a protest, and there won’t be a thing anybody can say, since they’re all claiming that they can’t vote for Trump in good conscience.

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 4:38 PM

What happened to FB?

I was bracing myself for the onslaught of Mordor hate from the Left in the comments.

Anyway…..

I’ll bet Gov. Walker is wondering if he bailed too early.

KirknBurker on February 16, 2016 at 2:55 PM

You do realize that Hotair isn’t going to Facebook, right? That it’s going to be the same site, but with a different comment system? There may be hordes of leftists that will eventually barge onto the site, but they’re not likely to be here within the first few minutes.

JannyMae on February 16, 2016 at 4:38 PM

I’m not in the Trump camp but I think your statement is incorrect.. Unless all of those polls were like two days before the caucus.
I recall that Cruz was leading by a couple of points for a while before then.. For some time.. Then just at the last moment one (maybe two) polls said that Trump was up a couple of points..

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong..

Al Hall on February 16, 2016 at 4:07 PM

No, you are correct. In the last week there were maybe 3-4 polls showing Trump about +5 (the Selzer poll, supposedly the gold standard in Iowa, was what convinced everyone Trump was winning there).

The situation was very different in New Hampshire where Trump’s numbers hardly budged and he ended up overperforming. It may have had a lot to do with the primary vs. caucus format. South Carolina is a primary.

You can see which ones are primary and which ones are caucuses here: https://www.gop.com/2016-gophq/event_schedule/?schedule_type=primary

If Trump wins South Carolina, then Cruz and Rubio will likely have to fight it out for the Minnesota, Colorado, and Alaska caucuses on Super Tuesday. Rubio in particular has to prove he can actually win a state.

Doomberg on February 16, 2016 at 4:18 PM

Actually, you’re both incorrect. Trump did indeed lead in the last 14 polls before Iowa…but LOST.

Bob Davis on February 16, 2016 at 4:39 PM

This was so cool.

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Trump did indeed lead in the last 14 polls before Iowa…but LOST.

Bob Davis on February 16, 2016 at 4:39 PM

He lead in a few Iowa polls, by 5, +/-

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 4:42 PM

So, seriously, was the whole comments system change thing just a joke? It doesn’t seem different.

Paperclips on February 16, 2016 at 4:48 PM

No, Hot Air is changing, giving how bad Hot Air coding is I’m not surprised it takes longer.

flackcatcher on February 16, 2016 at 4:55 PM

Well, isn’t this interesting.

Even Cruz’s own delegates know he is scum.

Paperclips on February 16, 2016 at 5:00 PM

Trump’s lawsuit talk doesn’t seem to have hurt him. Maybe people are seeing Rubio, despite his programming flaws, as an alternative to Cruz?

Maybe only Ed is going over to Facebook. He might find himself quite lonely…

WestVirginiaRebel on February 16, 2016 at 5:01 PM

You know what else is consistent? Trumps unfavorable. He has for months sported a 55+% unfavorable. The highest of anyone. Sure it might move to 54% but the last time was months ago.

As I have said, the media blitz has not even started on the GOP yet. We have seen how Trump reacts when his feet are put to the fire and people are asking tough questions. He becomes a child throwing a temper tantrum. As with the base, I think the floor is pretty solid of 15% or so being rather solid, his floor for the unfavorable seems to be very solid too.

So unless someone can explain to me how a person is going to get elected with at best 45% of the popular vote…. Im all ears.

watertown on February 16, 2016 at 3:57 PM

I cant see how he wins the general. He’s at historic lows for a nominee. Clinton is under investigation and is widely seen as a liar by here own party and is polling way ahead of Trump head to head.

Even if you like Trump, the rational thing is to vote for someone else now. Theres no visible path to him winning the general. Maybe if Clinton is arrested and Sanders dies but “generic Democrat” takes him out pretty easily too.

Zybalto on February 16, 2016 at 5:04 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/index.html

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 4:41 PM

The Trump equation is THIS simple … Trump is seen as anti establishment and if you are against him the rank and file immediately see you as the establishment ..we do not want ANYONE who has been in power before just ask the 43% of evangelicals who support Trump vs 23% for Cruz …haters, you can clutch your pearls till your hands bleed NOBODY cares

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:10 PM

Cool. Literally, the only thing I use FB is to play “Candy Crush”, well, and “Juice Jam.” Really, any of the games where sweets get the business.

cynccook on February 16, 2016 at 3:52 PM

I have Candy Crush (both versions) on my game phone, while my other phone has the normal stuff.

Misha on February 16, 2016 at 5:12 PM

Talk to some friends in the campaigns. There has been a massive shift in S.C. polling among the private polling done by the big three. The top lines numbers for the big three are within the margin of error. If true, then Trump is in big trouble. But even private polls have had major flaws, but with their bigger universe and far tougher screens of likely voters they get a better view of the voter internals. The internals on these campaign polls must be shocking to these pros, just on movement alone. Question is, is the same movement happening in the SEC and other primary states. If it is, then we have a new presidential election campaign starting. Oh, and Allah full well knows. PPP is a Democratic campaign outfit that does polling on the side. Classic push poll at all levels.

flackcatcher on February 16, 2016 at 5:14 PM

Talk to some friends in the campaigns. There has been a massive shift in S.C. polling among the private polling done by the big three. The top lines numbers for the big three are within the margin of error. If true, then Trump is in big trouble. But even private polls have had major flaws, but with their bigger universe and far tougher screens of likely voters they get a better view of the voter internals. The internals on these campaign polls must be shocking to these pros, just on movement alone. Question is, is the same movement happening in the SEC and other primary states. If it is, then we have a new presidential election campaign starting. Oh, and Allah full well knows. PPP is a Democratic campaign outfit that does polling on the side. Classic push poll at all levels.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/index.html

all those words convince ONLY yourself

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:19 PM

Vulnerability (corporations lowering the bottom line) + Fear (non-European immigrants) + Capital (controls the state) = Trump

The people who support Trump are suffering. Responding with derision and scorn for their choice of relief (Trump) is harsh. And it will never work.

libfreeordie on February 16, 2016 at 5:22 PM

Polls have been more innacurate this cycle than last.

libfreeordie on February 16, 2016 at 5:24 PM

hands bleed NOBODY cares

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:10 PM

Duh

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 5:30 PM

The people who support Trump are suffering. Responding with derision and scorn for their choice of relief (Trump) is harsh. And it will never work.

libfreeordie on February 16, 2016 at 5:22 PM

Half the country is ready to vote for a socialist. A majority of Americans view Cuba favorably for the first time. You suffer from the delusion that something could work. You imagine that if we could just get Cruz elected then the tides would recede and the skies would clear.

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 5:33 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/index.html

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 4:41 PM

From the link:

The poll suggests Trump’s support may have softened after Saturday’s debate among the GOP candidates. In interviews conducted before the debate, 40% backed Trump, compared with 31% who said they supported him after the raucous matchup between the remaining candidates in the field.

kcewa on February 16, 2016 at 5:38 PM

But Cruz is such a liar!
.
TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 3:18 PM

.
You’re damn right, he is … pay no attention to the Tru– … I mean, “man behind the curtain.”

listens2glenn on February 16, 2016 at 3:21 PM

So, is this the “your guy does it too,” defense? Cruz is lying about Trump’s positions. He’s lost his “holier than thou” card, except amongst his most cult-like supporters.

You can do better…maybe.

JannyMae on February 16, 2016 at 5:38 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/index.html

all those words convince ONLY yourself

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:19 PM

Large majority of the poll taken before the debate.

Not saying its gonna change huge though. Trump is really cleaning up with self described moderates and Liberals

Zybalto on February 16, 2016 at 5:39 PM

In a year where we should cruise to a presidential win we are going to elect a train wreck.

Rancher on February 16, 2016 at 5:43 PM

Cruz is lying about Trump’s positions.

His positions now or then? Why do you trust Trump now?

Rancher on February 16, 2016 at 5:45 PM

So Trump’s supporters have no idea what Trumps says or don’t care. That’s not exactly news.

TallDave on February 16, 2016 at 2:31 PM

How silent are you going to be when the GOP caves on Scalia’s replacement, and they will. Cruz will resist, and good on him for it, but the GOP will cave.

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 4:34 PM

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!11!!!11!!!!

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 5:47 PM

Trump is getting beaten by the combination of the next 3 candidates. This isn’t good.

V-rod on February 16, 2016 at 6:01 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-poll-cnn-orc/index.html

Schadenfreude on February 16, 2016 at 4:41 PM

The Trump equation is THIS simple … Trump is seen as anti establishment and if you are against him the rank and file immediately see you as the establishment ..we do not want ANYONE who has been in power before just ask the 43% of evangelicals who support Trump vs 23% for Cruz …haters, you can clutch your pearls till your hands bleed NOBODY cares

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:10 PM

TRUMP/THE WALL/THE GUN
2016
America’s Alpha Male will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN FOR ALL AMERICANS!

Pragmatic on February 16, 2016 at 6:03 PM

Trump is getting beaten by the combination of the next 3 candidates. This isn’t good.

V-rod on February 16, 2016 at 6:01 PM

so what? ….AND WHO DO YOU PREFER?

TRUMP/THE WALL/THE GUN
2016
America’s Alpha Male will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN FOR ALL AMERICANS.

Pragmatic on February 16, 2016 at 6:05 PM

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:19 PM For the last time, every public poll has been inaccurate, some wildly so. Both PPP and CNN have constantly embarrassed themselves in this election cycle. So spare me your BS newbie. What the private polls are looking at is attitudes, which shows how strong the leaning is to vote. We may be looking at a Iowa situation in South Carolina. Like everything else, it all about turnout. My post up-thread stands.

flackcatcher on February 16, 2016 at 6:11 PM

dio55 on February 16, 2016 at 5:19 PM For the last time, every public poll has been inaccurate, some wildly so. Both PPP and CNN have constantly embarrassed themselves in this election cycle. So spare me your BS newbie. What the private polls are looking at is attitudes, which shows how strong the leaning is to vote. We may be looking at a Iowa situation in South Carolina. Like everything else, it all about turnout. My post up-thread stands.

flackcatcher on February 16, 2016 at 6:11 PM

If Trump is to be stopped by the establishment it’s in the primaries. He has always been weakest there, screw the polls. Sanders would have a chance against him, but that’s really just a lose/lose from the establishment point of view.

DFCtomm on February 16, 2016 at 6:14 PM

Rubio by saying he is not for AMNESTY is nothing but a LIAR!!! He LIES about this all the time and this is a serious pattern here….

Realdemocrat1 on February 16, 2016 at 6:17 PM

http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/16/trey-gowdy-upset-after-fake-facebook-page-claims-he-switched-endorsement/

More dirty campaigning by Cruz!!! Trey Gowdy’s Facebook was copied and put out to say he changed endorsements! Gowdy knows both Rubio and Cruz, and he chose Rubio… what does that tell you? And I guess Gowdy knows a charlatan when he sees one… cuz… Facebook.

How can anyone still support Cruz after all the lies?

Is honesty not taught to Evangelicals? I mean isn’t it important to them at all?

I really don’t know, I assume it is, but because they are still supporting Cruz after all he has done. It reflects on them all.

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 6:28 PM

Rubio by saying he is not for AMNESTY is nothing but a LIAR!!! He LIES about this all the time and this is a serious pattern here….

Realdemocrat1 on February 16, 2016 at 6:17 PM

He says we will not need to discuss what to do about the people here until the border is measurable fixed, then we can discuss the issue again and see how people feel about it. That isn’t what you are saying is it? So who is lying?

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 6:29 PM

The poll suggests Trump’s support may have softened after Saturday’s debate among the GOP candidates. In interviews conducted before the debate, 40% backed Trump, compared with 31% who said they supported him after the raucous matchup between the remaining candidates in the field.
kcewa on February 16, 2016 at 5:38 PM

So it at least stalled his momentum. That’s something I guess.

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 6:31 PM

Ted Cruz: Defend the Right to Life

Pork-Chop on February 16, 2016 at 6:36 PM

Well, isn’t this interesting.

Even Cruz’s own delegates know he is scum.

Paperclips on February 16, 2016 at 5:00 PM

Good information, if you listen to Cruz… you hear it. It’s one thing to say Trump can’t be trusted because he has said in the past, and to change that to… what Cruz said.

What Cruz said was just a flat out lie, based on the troubling statement, yes, but taken to the most extreme interpretation possible, and not taking into account what Trump has said lately.

Why is Cruz doing this? He is really really lying. It is hard to watch it. And even harder to understand why he still has support.

—-disclaimer… I do not support Trump either… but fair is fair. Cruz lies.

petunia on February 16, 2016 at 6:37 PM