Hillary runs afoul of Harry Reid as Nevada vote approaches

posted at 12:41 pm on February 15, 2016 by Jazz Shaw

Republicans are currently focused on South Carolina, but the Democrats have a different race in mind right now. Their caucus in Nevada takes place this Saturday, with South Carolina falling a week later. This was billed as Hillary’s first stop on the path to crushing Bernie Sanders once he left the initial strongholds of Iowa and New Hampshire where he invested all of his resources. But has the damage the former First Lady suffered in those two battles begun to take a toll out west? Sam Levine at HuffPo looked at the question over the weekend and seems to feel that the once assumed “safe ground” for Clinton is now pretty much a question mark.

According to HuffPost Pollster, which aggregates publicly available polling data, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are tied in the polls ahead of the state’s Feb. 20 caucuses. But it’s unclear how reliable that data is, given how little polling has been done in the state. A poll released this week showing Clinton and Sanders tied was the first survey of Democratic voters in the state since December.

“We haven’t been doing this that long, there’s no real sense of the caucus electorate the way there is in Iowa,” said longtime Nevada journalist Jon Ralston on “The Rachel Maddow Show”on Friday. Ralston also noted that turnout at the Nevada caucuses has been particularly low in the past and that Democrats have same-day registration in the state, making it difficult to predict who is going to vote.

I’ll agree with them that Nevada is tough to poll. Historically the margins of error there tend to be a bit higher and the fact that it’s another Democratic caucus rather than an actual election only adds to the confusion. (See Hillary in Iowa for the latest example.) But Clinton isn’t doing herself any favors out there for what it’s worth. Apparently Team Clinton has been playing the lowered expectation games and preparing her followers (and the media, but I repeat myself) for a worse day than they might have once expected. Unfortunately for her, she chose to blame the possible poor outcome on the fact that the state is so darned white, and that’s got Harry Reid seeing red. (Politico)

With five days to go until the Nevada caucuses — once viewed as Hillary Clinton’s Western firewall — Sen. Harry Reid and his allies are incensed at the wounded Democratic frontrunner.

The reason: The Clinton campaign’s attempt to downgrade expectations there by whitewashing the diverse state.

The campaign’s recent assertion that Nevada is “still a state that is 80 percent white voters” – in other words, a state that looks alot like Bernie Sanders’ base — is simply wrong, Reid allies claim. But more galling than that, they say, it undermines the entire rationale for the caucuses’ existence — the state was only pushed to the front of the election calendar eight years ago because Reid lobbied for better demographic representation than the overwhelmingly white early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

This seems to be a case of political convenience in all its glory. The Democrats want to blame all those white voters in Nevada for a possible Hillary stumble, assuming that she only beats Bernie among minorities. But when these same wise party leaders want to bash Donald Trump, for example, they point out that his “racist rhetoric” will particularly hurt Republicans in places like… Nevada. (Latin Times)

If a Latino anti-Trump political does exist within among GOP voters, it may come into play in later primary states. Take Nevada, where 28 percent of the population is Latino, or Colorado, where 21 percent is Latino. Both are battleground states worth as much or more GOP delegates than Iowa. With the Republican field whittled down, conservative Latinos may be able to rally around a single candidate. Trump, of course, believes that it will be him, especially in Nevada.

So which is it? Either the Hispanic vote is unimportant in Nevada or it’s a key driver. They can’t seem to make up their minds. But no matter how the chips fall in reality, there’s no question that Clinton has potentially shot herself in the foot yet again. The Hispanic population certainly won’t be thrilled to hear that they aren’t important enough to put her over the top and Harry Reid is still a powerfully influential and popular figure among the locals. I expect that some of the Sanders people will be putting these comments to good use in the next five days, assuming they know anything about running a campaign.

Exit question: Let’s just hypothesize for a moment that Bernie somehow pulls win number three out of his hat in Nevada. (Or win number two with a tie in Iowa if you prefer.) Then there’s another week before they face off in the Palmetto State. Hillary holds on to a 59-40 lead in South Carolina as of this weekend. That’s a solid set of numbers to be sure, but much close than it was a month ago. So does her firewall start to deteriorate if she comes into their primary without one solid win in her pocket? Could Sanders actually be approaching the level of viability even without Clinton being indicted?

reid-mccarthyism


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No comment.

(may as well shut this all down early).

Walter L. Newton on February 15, 2016 at 12:44 PM

Still no comment

Daryl on February 15, 2016 at 12:44 PM

No comment.

lorien1973 on February 15, 2016 at 12:45 PM

No comment

56andwarmweather on February 15, 2016 at 12:47 PM

No comment

cozmo on February 15, 2016 at 12:48 PM

No comment.

Sherman1864 on February 15, 2016 at 12:49 PM

Yeah, I think…well, er, no comment.

newtopia on February 15, 2016 at 12:51 PM

Make $75 per hour working from home.

portlandon on February 15, 2016 at 12:51 PM

No comment either

animal02 on February 15, 2016 at 12:53 PM

whatevs

DanMan on February 15, 2016 at 12:53 PM

The air is gone from HotAir. I won’t go to Facebook. It’s for soccer moms and tweens.

MajorKong on February 15, 2016 at 12:54 PM

Can I post pictures of a Nevada vacation?

Otherwise no comment

avi natan on February 15, 2016 at 12:54 PM

No. Comment.

HomeoftheBrave on February 15, 2016 at 12:54 PM

I wouldn’t support ANYTHING Zukkernerd owns… period. He a leftwing hack. A Tool.

HomeoftheBrave on February 15, 2016 at 12:55 PM

My last comment.

docflash on February 15, 2016 at 12:56 PM

No comment. No facebook. No way, no how.

merlich on February 15, 2016 at 12:57 PM

Stand by for my spokesperson.

Rix on February 15, 2016 at 12:58 PM

Reid, throwing his weight behind Trump, after all Trump supported him…

right2bright on February 15, 2016 at 12:58 PM

[comment deleted-user banned]

– Mark Z.

fossten on February 15, 2016 at 12:59 PM

My last comment…now…no…now….wait…

MajorKong on February 15, 2016 at 1:00 PM

No comment.
3.14159 likes this post.

3.14159 on February 15, 2016 at 1:00 PM

No comment.

VidOmnia on February 15, 2016 at 1:00 PM

Still no comment.

(We may as well make give the moderation-challenged staff (Ed’s words, not mine) a day off. After all, it’s a National holiday.

Walter L. Newton on February 15, 2016 at 1:01 PM

No comment

stevo on February 15, 2016 at 1:05 PM

Selena Gomez Caught On Leaked Tape

You will lost your all respect for Selena Gomez after watching this!

MechanicalBill on February 15, 2016 at 1:05 PM

No comment.

Wethal on February 15, 2016 at 1:05 PM

Thanks for your writing Jazz and good luck.

jnelchef on February 15, 2016 at 1:07 PM

No comment.

mmorgan21 on February 15, 2016 at 1:08 PM

15 steps to whitening your teeth…

Flange on February 15, 2016 at 1:08 PM

Make $75 per hour working from home.

portlandon

heh..

xblade on February 15, 2016 at 1:09 PM

Reid, throwing his weight behind Trump, after all Trump supported him…
right2bright on February 15, 2016 at 12:58 PM

No comment

avi natan on February 15, 2016 at 1:10 PM

Cruz/Rubio. Ok, that’s officially my last comment. Goodnight, Alice….no, that was.

Cherokee on February 15, 2016 at 1:11 PM

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56andwarmweather on February 15, 2016 at 1:14 PM

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Kafir on February 15, 2016 at 1:16 PM

Lets hope this crazy Facebook comment decision goes the way of VA’s CCW reciprocity decision and just as fast.

meci on February 15, 2016 at 1:16 PM

Does this mean I can finally poke SmokeyBlond?

BacaDog on February 15, 2016 at 1:17 PM

Our diversity is our strength.

avi natan on February 15, 2016 at 1:18 PM

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56andwarmweather on February 15, 2016 at 1:14 PM

But my friend’s mom makes $753 an hour!!!!!!!

anotherJoe on February 15, 2016 at 1:16 PM

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56andwarmweather on February 15, 2016 at 1:20 PM

Thanks for your martini advice, jazz. Good luck with your career.

Indiana Jim on February 15, 2016 at 1:21 PM

Why are the bloggers at this site moderating comments anyway? Shouldn’t this be the work of an intern learning the ropes of digital journalism?

It’s a pretty sad excuse, especially considering this hasn’t been a mom and pop operation in a few years.

mmorgan21 on February 15, 2016 at 1:22 PM

My last comment – Good bye.

JLyons on February 15, 2016 at 1:23 PM

Im selling some of my guitars…..320 Rickenbacker and Les Paul Sunburst “Classic”.

jaywemm on February 15, 2016 at 1:23 PM

No Comment.

Buck Farky on February 15, 2016 at 1:25 PM

We are so sorry. Due to our inability to be tolerant of the viewpoints of our conservative members, this post has been removed.

Sincerely,

RaceBook

Turtle317 on February 15, 2016 at 1:28 PM

Facebook => Goodbye Hot Air

IcePilot on February 15, 2016 at 1:29 PM

Is this where I post pictures of food or my cat?

ghostwalker1 on February 15, 2016 at 1:35 PM

No comment.

Lolo on February 15, 2016 at 1:38 PM

Anybody have any good recipes for tuna casserole?

tommyboy on February 15, 2016 at 1:38 PM

No comment.

NowIveSeenItAll on February 15, 2016 at 1:38 PM

You are not logged in.

docflash on February 15, 2016 at 1:39 PM

I like eating crayons.

itsspideyman on February 15, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Still no comment.

Walter L. Newton on February 15, 2016 at 1:48 PM

A human is the best thing to happen to a shelter pet.

avi natan on February 15, 2016 at 1:48 PM

Leave Hillary alone you sexists!

This comment pre-approved by Mark Zuckerburg groupthinkninks.

Valiant on February 15, 2016 at 1:59 PM

Why don’t you like this Post?

o It’s insulting
o It’s not relevant to me
o It’s spam

Sorry you had this experience, we’ll try to show you better posts in the future.

Meremortal on February 15, 2016 at 2:03 PM

Here are some hard facts;
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=3609

There are not that many people in Nevada outside of Las Vegas (Clark County). Reid, the casino owners, the labor unions, and the mob (yes this list is a bit redundant) run Las Vegas. If Hillary has ticked off Reid and the Latinos working the low paying jobs in Vegas, then she could be in big trouble.

This is anther place Bernie does not have to win big. He just has put another dent into Hillary’s inevitability armor. The less inevitable she seems might make an indictment more likely.

bartbeast on February 15, 2016 at 2:04 PM

Yes I too have no comment.

douglucy on February 15, 2016 at 2:05 PM

Wait? Hillary is blaming her looming defeat on the state being too white? Has nobody told her that she is the whitest white girl in the room?

patches on February 15, 2016 at 2:05 PM

Does it matter at all?

Based on the results we’ve seen up to now, with the biased DNC rules and ‘super-delegates’, Hillary could suffer a clear humiliating loss at the polls and still get the majority of the delegates.

If I were a Democrat voter and didn’t support Hillary, I’d probably consider driving to attend and vote at the caucus as a waste of my time.

Besides, I could spend those hours making millions on the internet using one weird trick!

s1im on February 15, 2016 at 2:09 PM

Ummm…er….mmmm…no comment…I take the 5th…

timberline on February 15, 2016 at 2:23 PM

Sam Levine at HuffPo looked at the question over the weekend and seems to feel that the once assumed “safe ground” for Clinton is now pretty much a question mark.

Ahhhhhh, I see now. Salem is going to sell HotAir to huffpo to kill off any conservative commenting, and had to do a purge using zuckerbergers nazi regime at footbook.

Andy__B on February 15, 2016 at 2:24 PM

I drove though Vegas once, but no comment. What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

MH53J on February 15, 2016 at 2:54 PM

Make $75 per hour working from home.

portlandon on February 15, 2016 at 12:51 PM

LOL, er, I mean, no comment.

VistaBrook on February 15, 2016 at 3:01 PM

Since I have avoided Facebook so far, I’ll just continue to do so.

FOWG1 on February 15, 2016 at 3:15 PM

Make $75 per hour working for facebook.

Oh wait, he only wants cheap illegal labor.

Make $.75 per hour working for facebook.

Oh, and no comment.

Mo_mac on February 15, 2016 at 3:18 PM

How important is the Latino/Hispanic vote in NV for Democrats?
Probably more important in the caucuses than the General, as it would seem to be easier for the “undocumented” to participate in those caucuses than to actually cast ballots.
So, the answer would seem to be: Both!

Another Drew on February 15, 2016 at 3:33 PM

Hilary will win the nomination, but she’ll be crippled by Sanders.

Seeing his legacy threatened, Obama will decide to “take the high road” and indict Hilary Clinton. At that point forcing her to drop out just before the convention. Then they will slip in someone else, Biden maybe, to be the nominee.

Sackett on February 15, 2016 at 4:53 PM

no comment x 1,000,000,000,000

kennedyk49 on February 15, 2016 at 7:53 PM

Hey, this doesn’t look like F—b–k!
No comment.

belad on February 16, 2016 at 12:22 AM