Is Cruz the frontrunner now?

posted at 1:21 pm on February 10, 2016 by Allahpundit

Yep, says Philip Klein. I hope he’s right, but I’m not sure the takeaway from a blowout win for Trump in New Hampshire is that it’s now Ted Cruz’s race to lose.

Though Trump’s victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn’t put substantial effort into winning the state — where very conservative candidates don’t typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.

As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths…

Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn’t perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled…

[N]ow that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record — on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights — among other issues.

Let’s look at this short-term and longer-term. Short-term, Klein’s right about South Carolina being way more favorable to Cruz than New Hampshire was. It’s hard to believe that the guy who won Iowa based on his strength with evangelicals, who’s already distinguished himself for having an outstanding ground game, is going to finish any worse than second in a state where evangelicals make up a huge segment of the electorate. (That’s also why it’s hard to believe a Rubio comeback, which would require a strong third place at a minimum, is in the offing. Cruz is in his way.) No one will be surprised if Cruz wins there on February 20th. But … no one will be surprised if Trump wins there either, right? Klein is correct that all of the polls showing Trump with a big lead in SC were taken before Cruz won Iowa, but they were also taken before Trump blew out the field in New Hampshire last night. Trump built his lead in the SC polls at a moment when it was still an open question whether he was nothing but media hype, a guy who was getting by on name recognition and camera time whose voters would evaporate into thin air once they were required to actually go out and vote. Trump put that to rest last night. Now he’s headed into South Carolina with new credibility as a potential nominee and, in all likelihood, a poll bounce. I can buy that some evangelicals in South Carolina are going to shift to Cruz by dint of his win in Iowa. I can, however, also buy that some South Carolinians who held off on expressing their support for Trump before, whether out of embarrassment or simply because they thought his candidacy would fizzle early, are going to shift to Trump. The first polls in SC this week should show a tighter race than they showed in January but there’s every reason to think Trump will still lead. And unlike Cruz, Trump doesn’t need to worry as much about voters in his “lane” defecting to Rubio as he scrapes for a comeback. It’s quite possible that Trump wins narrowly in SC because a few too many evangelicals wanted to give Marco a second chance at Cruz’s expense.

Related to that, don’t forget that Trump so far has been competitive among evangelical voters, a bloc which you might assume would belong exclusively to Rubio and Cruz. Cruz did win decisively among evangelicals in Iowa, which probably accounted for the margin of his victory, but Trump finished tied with Rubio for those voters. Last night in New Hampshire, Trump (narrowly) won evangelicals along with virtually every other demographic. It could be that Cruz repeats his Iowa performance with born-again voters in South Carolina, but as I say, it could also be that some portion of the electorate that was skeptical of Trump — evangelicals included — will be newly open to considering him after his big win. If Cruz wins evangelicals narrowly in SC and Trump wins non-evangelicals comfortably, how would you expect the outcome of that race to go? And all of this assumes that the advantage Cruz got from his ground game in Iowa will also obtain in South Carolina. Team Trump is no doubt trying to catch up organizationally there, but even if you think there’s no chance they’ll succeed, consider that Kasich and Bush and Rubio also surely had organizational advantages over Trump in New Hampshire. How’d that work out? I can’t remember who said it, but someone on Twitter noted last night that the most terrifying thing about the NH results for anti-Trumpers is that he actually outperformed his polls by four points. It may be that Trump will continue to struggle to match Cruz in turning out voters in caucus states but that statewide primaries will even the playing field. South Carolina is, of course, a primary state.

But all of that is near-term. Even if Cruz wins South Carolina and outperforms Trump in the SEC primary, how does the rest of the race look? WaPo posted this graphic this morning as evidence of Cruz’s strength, but there’s good reason here not to count Trump out too:

we

Lots of evangelicals waiting for Cruz in the south, to be sure. But … not nearly as many outside the south, which is a big problem, no? The whole point of last night’s outcome is that, in states where born-again Christians are less of a factor, Trump can blow out the competition. Well, there are lots of states like that — and lots of them will vote after March 15th, when delegates can be awarded winner-take-all instead of proportionally. Cruz supporters, and I include myself here, seem to be following an “underpants gnome” blueprint to ultimate victory that runs something like this:

Step one: Cruz beats Trump in Iowa, South Carolina, and in the SEC primary
Step two: ????????
Step three: Cruz is nominee!

Really? What happens when it really is a two-man race and, say, California and New York and other blue/purple states have to choose between the conservative fire-breather Cruz and the “moderate” deal-making centrist Trump? Cruz fans seem to be counting on dealing Trump enough losses that he simply gets demoralized and drops out at some point, but one of the huge consequences of last night’s result, I think, is that there’s much less of a chance of that now. Trump losing in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina and Nevada really might have convinced him to throw in the towel in the name of saving face, but now that he’s proved he can roll to a landslide in a purple state, he has every incentive to take his lumps in the south and bide his time for a true “Trump vs. Cruz” binary choice in the rest of the country. And that assumes that Cruz really does win big in the south, where he’s expected to. Trump has consistently outpolled him there so far. Maybe that changed after Iowa. But, thanks to New Hampshire, maybe it didn’t. We’ll know soon.

I’d give Trump something like a 60 percent chance at the nomination at this point and Cruz a 35 percent chance (which means PredictWise is underrating both of them). How ironic, though, that it’s probably going to fall to Ted Cruz, establishment bete noire, to save the GOP from Trump. Even more ironic: Establishmentarians will fight him the whole way.


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Sorry, but no. The polls all showed Trump winning prior to Iowa. In fact the final 14 polls ALL showed Trump winning. He was supposed to win by 4.7%. Instead he lost by 3.3 – an 8 point spread. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:51 PM

Yet the poll averages showed Cruz getting 11.9 and he got 11.7% in New Hampshire.

And Trump was supposed to get 31% and he ended up getting 35.3%.

So much for Cruz’s vaunted ground game.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 4:56 PM

Sidetrack much?

I don’t know if he will ban muslims from immigrating to the US, anymore than you know that Cruz will not legalize every illegal alien here when President. Notice how he doesn’t talk about deportations or legal status anymore?

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 4:54 PM

It shows that DT is for DT, and his bottom line matters. He has stopped the Muslim rhetoric when investors in Dubai started threatening him. Mark it, he has to start actually spending his own money in the elections, he is out.

melle1228 on February 10, 2016 at 4:56 PM

The final polling didn’t take into account that Cruz would attempt several times to lie and steal Carson’s votes during the caucus.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 4:30 PM

/rolling eyes.

You bowling with them? That’s ingenious.

Try some math. For it to have changed the results, Carson would have had to lose over 1/3rd of all his votes – AND you’d have to assume that all went to Cruz.

He padded his lead by gaining Carson’s votes. That goes directly into your argument about that supposed 8 point split.

This is a stupid meme, all based on the assumption that Cruz’s people missed a SINGLE TWEET.

It wasn’t a single tweet. There were many. It’s funny how you guys were quoting the same CNN guy who stated on Twitter that Carson was going to Florida, yet forget to include the second tweet sent less than a minute later that he was staying in the race.

Carson was idiotic for releasing the information right before the vote, AND not ensuring that his intentions were clear in that release.

It was clear. Cruz twisted it to be something completely different from what it was.

This is is on Carson’s people, Carson, and CNN, not Cruz.

Nope. It was entirely on Cruz.

And it didn’t make any apparent difference – Carson outperformed his poll numbers slightly.

Right, because only Cruz and Rubio are allowed to outperform their poll numbers by 4-8%.

And then proceeded to lay off 40% of his staff just days later – a move that was already planned.

He did just lose Iowa. Not a lot of funds come into the losers do they?

So looks like people who voted Carson in Iowa really were throwing their votes away.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:56 PM

So that makes lying to them okay. Pathetic.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:03 PM

That’s my problem with him. I am not ready to bank on him. If he is already espousing govt healthcare, how far is he willing to go left if he gets the nod?

melle1228 on February 10, 2016 at 4:31 PM

Exactly. And it’s not just single payer – he’s also said he won’t even start building the wall for two years, is supporting touchback amnesty with possible citizenship for most of the illegal aliens, wants to drastically increase legal immigration… He doesn’t believe in private property rights at all. He’s said he’d violate the Constitution exactly as Obama has if he can’t get things passed by Congress, only it will be good if he does it because it’s him, not Obama (which is beyond absurd). He’s horribly protectionist when it comes to trade, and doesn’t believe in free trade – but he says he does in the same sentence as saying he’d slap a 45% tariff on China which is as protectionist and ANTI-free trade as it gets. He believes in big government, and his tax plan would drastically increase our federal debt. He supports the use of government power to stifle political speech – threatening lawsuits left and right. He says he won’t touch entitlements, even though tweaking them a little is essential to keep them from going bankrupt and not being available for anyone. He even is calling for bigger ethanol mandate! He was a registered DEMOCRAT right up to 2009, didn’t register Republican until 2011 when he was seriously considering running for president then, and just a month ago said himself he was an establishment Repub just a few months ago. He said he didn’t support the TEA party even. He supported TARP bailing out big banks, he supported Obama’s stimulus and said the only problem with it was it wasn’t big enough, supported Obama’s auto bailouts and “cash for clunkers” too!

He’s “great” friends with Hillary, Schumer, Pelosi, Reid and has payed all of them along with others like Weiner, Emanuel, etc., to keep ruining this nation… Trump on the other hand would be having to explain why he’s slobbered all over Hillary for years now, including VERY recently, proclaiming that she’d done a phenomenal job in office, has great judgement, was the best Secretary of State ever, would make a fabulous president, etc.

I can just see Hillary’s ads now if Trump gets the nomination: They’ll be video of TRUMP singing her praises, followed by Hillary gleefully saying “I approve of this ad!.” And what’s his ONLY defense against it? Either to claim “I lied” or “My judgement about Hillary and Obama sucked and I’ve changed my mind” – yeah, that’s a really good recipe for our next president, someone who openly admits they lie just to better feather their nest (so is he doing the same to all of us now?), or someone who actually thinks Hillary has great judgement and was a phenomenal success in both the Senate and Secretary of State roles and that Obama has done an incredibly fabulous job as president. Sheesh.

So what in the world would we be actually getting if he winds up president? I’m afraid it’d be a lot of lies and twitter meltdowns.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:03 PM

Sidetrack much?

I don’t know if he will ban muslims from immigrating to the US, anymore than you know that Cruz will not legalize every illegal alien here when President. Notice how he doesn’t talk about deportations or legal status anymore?

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 4:54 PM

It shows that DT Cruz is for DT Cruz, and his bottom line matters. He has stopped the Muslim anti legal status/amnesty rhetoric when investors in Dubai PACs started threatening him. Mark it, he has to start actually spending his own money in the elections, he is out.

melle1228 on February 10, 2016 at 4:56 PM

Wow. This is too easy…

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:05 PM

So the 800,000+ people who’ve donated an average of $63 to his campaign, the most small donors of all the candidates but Carson perhaps, and you claim they’re all globalists/trans-nationalist/North American Unionists?

The Wilks Brothers, they’re globalists/trans-nationalist/North American Unionists?

Time for you to actually get a grip on reality, because you’ve lost it.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:46 PM

800,000+ people, most of them probably working and middle-class, donated their hard earned cash to a trans-nationalist fraud, a Manchurian Conservative who will sell them down the river, because the big bucks for his campaign come from the same people who are actively destroying American sovereignty, and the little people Ted claims to represent, and I’ve lost my grip on reality?

Joseph K on February 10, 2016 at 5:10 PM

So much for Cruz’s vaunted ground game.

Cruz only spent 580k in NH to to place 3rd. He didn’t have a ground game in NH because he didn’t try to get one. To put that in perspective Bush spend 36 million, Even Trump spent 6 times as much a Cruz in NH. Now Ted has the most money to spend down the road. Cruz didn’t spend much money in NH because they favor moderates more than conservatives. Trump did quite well without spending much money, but don’t think it’s showing Cruz is weak for coming in 3rd in a state where he put in almost zero resources except for some time.

Candidate Spent
Bush $36.1m
Christie $18.5m
Rubio $15.2m
Kasich $12.1m
Clinton $10.8m
Sanders $8.1m
Trump $3.7m
Graham $3.2m
Fiorina $1.8m
Paul $831k
Cruz $580k
Carson $575k
Pataki $374k

Kazinski on February 10, 2016 at 5:13 PM

So much for Cruz’s vaunted ground game.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 4:56 PM

Delusional much? No one ever claimed Cruz had much ground game in NH at all – in fact it was noted that he wasn’t putting much into NH because the demographics there were so bad for him. In fact Trump spent 6.5 times as much in NH as Cruz.

NH Combined campaign/SuperPAC spending

$36M Bush
$18.5M Christie
$15.2M Rubio
$12.1M Kasich
$03.7M Trump
$01.8M Fiorina
$00.5M Cruz

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:39 PM

Wow. This is too easy…

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:05

melle1228 on February 10, 2016 at 5:09 PM

DT just now says he would force China to assassinate Kim Jong Un.. I cannot believe you all take this guy seriously.

melle1228 on February 10, 2016 at 5:13 PM

Please let me know where you trust Cruz and I will poke just as many holes in that as you attempt to do with Trump.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:46 PM

800,000+ people, most of them probably working and middle-class, donated their hard earned cash to a trans-nationalist fraud, a Manchurian Conservative who will sell them down the river, because the big bucks for his campaign come from the same people who are actively destroying American sovereignty, and the little people Ted claims to represent, and I’ve lost my grip on reality?

Joseph K on February 10, 2016 at 5:10 PM

WHO are you even talking about? It’s sure not the Wilks Bros. from West Texas. Or the Texas energy investor. You mean the one computer scientist who made his money with programs he wrote and used in trading hedge funds? So where exactly is Cruz getting all this “globalist” money from?

And exactly WHAT policies has Cruz changed on since getting all this imaginary “globalist” money that’s supposedly made him a Manchurian Conservative? Gee, funny thing, he’s STILL by far the most fiscal and Constitutional conservative in the race – and also the most consistently so.

So yep, it would seem you’ve lost your grip on reality and delved right into full blown conspiracy theory territory.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:50 PM

Delusional much? No one ever claimed Cruz had much ground game in NH at all – in fact it was noted that he wasn’t putting much into NH because the demographics there were so bad for him. In fact Trump spent 6.5 times as much in NH as Cruz.

People here were posting about his ground game at a steady pace.

NH Combined campaign/SuperPAC spending

$36M Bush
$18.5M Christie
$15.2M Rubio
$12.1M Kasich
$03.7M Trump
$01.8M Fiorina
$00.5M Cruz

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:39 PM

Donald Trump spent $40 per vote while Cruz spent $20. Yet that netted Trump an over 23 point smashing victory over him in New Hampshire in a state that was friendly to Trump.

Yet in Iowa Trump spent $75 per vote and Cruz spent $115 per vote. And Cruz won by 3.3% over Trump in one of Trump’s unfriendliest states and Cruz’s friendliest.

The difference is amazing.

And it’s not good for Cruz in the long run, where is the path to victory for him?

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:52 PM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:03 PM

You planning on writing a book with every post?

Barred on February 10, 2016 at 6:00 PM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:03 PM

You planning on writing a book with every post?

Barred on February 10, 2016 at 6:00 PM

:D

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 6:03 PM

Step one: Cruz beats Trump in Iowa, South Carolina, and in the SEC primary
Step two: ????????
Step three: Cruz is nominee!

If Cruz breaks out into a lead (as opposed to a split with Trump) during the SEC primaries, GOP voters in later states have a history of falling behind the leader.

That is Step Two.

Bart DePalma on February 10, 2016 at 6:15 PM

Schwarzenegger was an abject failure as a governor and betrayed the people who voted for him.
Yup. I’ve been saying this for weeks now. Trump would absolutely be Schwartznegger on a national level. Not good.

terryannonline on February 10, 2016 at 2:32 PM

Totally agree. It is stunning that Trump’s supporters put so much blind faith in a man who has never demonstrated loyalty to anyone or expressed conservative principles about anything for more than 24 hours at a time.

idalily on February 10, 2016 at 6:17 PM

You planning on writing a book with every post?

Barred on February 10, 2016 at 6:00 PM

:D

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 6:03 PM

Grow up already.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 6:18 PM

And all of this assumes that the advantage Cruz got from his ground game in Iowa will also obtain in South Carolina. Team Trump is no doubt trying to catch up organizationally there

I keep hearing that Trump has the best ground game in SC of anyone, so…

And, of course, it was not Cruz’s ground game that won him IA. It was his lying about Carson.

Aslans Girl on February 10, 2016 at 6:30 PM

Grow up already.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 6:18 PM

That was pithy enough. ;)

melle1228 on February 10, 2016 at 6:31 PM

With the one exception of George Bush’s 3rd place Iowa showing in 1988, every candidate since 1976 who went on to win the nomination finished in either 1st or 2nd in BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire.

Guess who that is this year?

So sorry.

rvastar on February 10, 2016 at 3:53 PM
“My name is ‘correlation’,”

“I’m sorry. What did I…”

“You called me ‘causation’.”

“Well I’m sorry. Aren’t they the…”

“No, they are not the same.”

“Oh, sorry.”

Immolate on February 10, 2016 at 4:05 PM

Thank you. Those here who actually understand statistics appreciate your post.

idalily on February 10, 2016 at 6:32 PM

Please let me know where you trust Cruz and I will poke just as many holes in that as you attempt to do with Trump.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:46 PM

You’re so lazy, you want them to set them up for you too?

You spin so much you’re dizzy.

libfreesMom on February 10, 2016 at 6:41 PM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 6:18 PM

For the past week you have been posting the same thing almost verbatim.

Have you changed any minds? It’s not like what you are posting hasn’t been posted here for the last 6 months.

At least I know when I see your nom I can just skip over it.

There is that to be thankful for.

Barred on February 10, 2016 at 6:49 PM

Thank you. Those here who actually understand statistics appreciate your post.

idalily on February 10, 2016 at 6:32 PM

Ah…another “smart” one.

Please enlighten us further with your brilliance…since Immolate ran away.

You can start off by showing us all where I wrote that the historical data shows that finishing either 1st or 2nd in both IA and NH causes one to win the nomination.

rvastar on February 10, 2016 at 6:52 PM

Grow up already.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 6:18 PM

Much better.

Joseph K on February 10, 2016 at 6:57 PM

Cruz can’t even beat Kasich. If Trump wasn’t around, he would have been eaten alive. Still not too late for him to bow out, and ask for a job.

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 6:57 PM

Cruz’ electability is completely lost on me. He has the personality of a squid, even when working a rope line he comes across painfully awkward. And the televangelist delivery he can call up at moments notice is even more off putting.

Coltrane on February 10, 2016 at 7:00 PM

And, of course, it was not Cruz’s ground game that won him IA. It was his lying about Carson.

Aslans Girl on February 10, 2016 at 6:30 PM

You’re very uninformed or just like to lie.

To recap:

On a Twitter account with 23 million followers, CNN told the world that Carson “plans to take a break from campaigning after Iowa.”

On a Twitter account with just 31,000 followers, CNN’s Chris Moody clarified that Carson was not dropping out.

Again, I ask you: Why didn’t CNN use its powerful broadcast center or massive Twitter presence to tell its viewers the full story — to tell viewers Carson was not dropping out?

What’s especially laughable is that CNN is using Moody’s tweets as an ass-covering defense — an account with only 31,000 followers!

But that’s all CNN has, and the dishonesty of that defense and the cover-up of CNN’s own culpability in this scandal hit the red-zone Saturday night.

During that night’s debate, when asked about the scandal, everything Cruz said was 100% accurate

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:03 PM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:03 PM

You planning on writing a book with every post?

Barred on February 10, 2016 at 6:00 PM

:D

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 6:03 PM

Grow up already.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 6:18 PM

Wow that was faster than usual. I was expected you to respond four hours from now…

No one is going to read your 30,000 word treatises on crap that has been discussed to death.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:10 PM

Please let me know where you trust Cruz and I will poke just as many holes in that as you attempt to do with Trump.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:46 PM

You’re so lazy, you want them to set them up for you too?

No, it shows that you guys have no argument for Cruz other than trust me, he’s conservative. Not good enough.

You spin so much you’re dizzy.

libfreesMom on February 10, 2016 at 6:41 PM

Who’s spinning what?

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:18 PM

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:03 PM

CNN never said Carson was dropping out. If Cruz is spreading rumors, it’s up to him to correct them.

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 7:20 PM

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:18 PM

You pull the same childish and desperate crap every time.

You twist commenter’s posts and “think” you won something. No one posts more hollow crap than you. You’re a waste of time on here. You ignore cited facts and come back with forum acrobatics. Well using quote boxes, strike outs and edits isn’t substance. It’s childish BS.

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:26 PM

CNN never said Carson was dropping out. If Cruz is spreading rumors, it’s up to him to correct them.

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 7:20 PM

Hit the link and read the article. It’s quite easy to understand.

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:27 PM

I’d like to say good post. However this idea of a constitutional conservative South is partly correct. Louisiana just elected Democrat JBE to governor 55-45 partly cause of Jindals unpopularity and Vitters. But the South, like Trump, is new to the Republican fold. Many governorships and state legislatures weren’t wrested from Democrats until the mid 90s and 2000s. I see the South as a Roosevelt/Truman Democratic, lots of Reagan Democrats. While Evangelical voters are bigger so are flag waving anti Common Core activists not mad at federal/state intrusion but mad it is so inept and corrupt. There is an anti Federal sentiment but bashing Trump as a moderate not real Republican who believes in safety nets and government working for the people could backfire. Here in LA there are many hardworking folks who use LACHIP(Louisiana Children’s Health Insurance Program) who don’t necessarily want these programs ended just reformed. They want Government to work not to disappear. Whether or not that’s right, I’d like some shrinkage, is irrelevant. I don’t think Trump is at a natural disadvantage besides being a Northerner, though Cruz arguably is well North of Trump ;)

LeeBelieu on February 10, 2016 at 7:28 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JiYX1igWwGY

Live now in South Carolina.

Look at the guy with glasses.

He’s tripping hard. LOL.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:32 PM

You pull the same childish and desperate crap every time.

You can always skip my posts. But you crave attention from me apparently.

You twist commenter’s posts and “think” you won something.

Projection.

No one posts more hollow crap than you. You’re a waste of time on here.

You can always skip my posts. :D

I know it’s really, really hard for you. :)

You ignore cited facts and come back with forum acrobatics. Well using quote boxes, strike outs and edits isn’t substance. It’s childish BS.

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:26 PM

Says the guy who ignores any facts that don’t fit into his narrative.

You’re posts are a bunch of whiny, condescending tripe. I’m sorry your guy can’t cut it, but you’ve already made it clear that you will settle for Rubio.

If the GOP put Kasich in front of you, you would say thank you and then ask for more.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:39 PM

So, after Trump wins SC, who will be the frontrunner then? Maybe Jeb?

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 8:01 PM

So, after Trump wins SC, who will be the frontrunner then? Maybe Jeb?

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 8:01 PM

That depends whose in third.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 8:08 PM

It’s funny to watch Fox News types try to convince everyone that this is more than a two-man race. Kasich has no money, Bush has no voters, and Cruz has beaten Rubio twice and is going to do it again in 10 days.

K. Hobbit on February 10, 2016 at 8:13 PM

Cruz can’t even beat Kasich. If Trump wasn’t around, he would have been eaten alive. Still not too late for him to bow out, and ask for a job.

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 6:57 PM

If Trump weren’t around, Cruz would have shredded Kasich – most Trump supporters say Cruz is their second choice. Kasich put $12.1 Million into New Hampshire – the state he’s got the BEST chance in out of them all (maybe the only one). Cruz spent all of $0.58 million – and still came in third. Using Kasich’s second place there to say Cruz ought to bow out is absurd, especially when Cruz won Iowa fairly easily.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:14 PM

Cruz’ electability is completely lost on me. He has the personality of a squid, even when working a rope line he comes across painfully awkward. And the televangelist delivery he can call up at moments notice is even more off putting.

Coltrane on February 10, 2016 at 7:00 PM

Some of us care far more about how fiscally and Constitutionally conservative the candidate actually is, their history, ethics, accomplishments, etc., than their personality or charisma. We care about a president who can get the job done and stop the slide towards socialism – not how pretty their smile is or how accomplished they are at lying to people.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:17 PM

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:03 PM

Good catch on the number of followers for each involved account. Thanks for posting that info.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:22 PM

Grow up already.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 6:18 PM

Wow that was faster than usual. I was expected you to respond four hours from now…

No one is going to read your 30,000 word treatises on crap that has been discussed to death.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:10 PM

The fact that you have the attention span of a gnat really isn’t my problem. Toddle off now, your Mommy is calling you.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:24 PM

The fact that you have the attention span of a gnat really isn’t my problem. Toddle off now, your Mommy is calling you.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:24 PM

You are using a comment section to post your “books.” It is an inappropriate forum for your talking points.

Go find Constitutionalist and he will tell you all about it.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 8:29 PM

CNN never said Carson was dropping out. If Cruz is spreading rumors, it’s up to him to correct them.

cimbri on February 10, 2016 at 7:20 PM

Hit the link and read the article. It’s quite easy to understand.

voiceofreason on February 10, 2016 at 7:27 PM

Of course if you’d actually read up on the issue and checked the facts, you’d know that the Cruz people pretty much just said exactly what CNN had. What’s more, it’s not Cruz’s people’s responsibility to verify CNN nationally aired breaking news released literally only minutes before the vote.

It was Carson’s responsibility to ensure that the correct information was put out by the news media and that it wasn’t easily misunderstood. Carson’s responsibility to ensure that he notified the other candidate’s campaigns directly and right away when he became aware that CNN had put out such easily misunderstood information, and Carson’s responsibility to ensure he had people at each of the precincts to make sure voters knew what was going on with his campaign. After all, it’s a CAUCUS, where people are supposed to try to talk others there into voting for their candidate. It’s not a primary or typical election.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:31 PM

The DENIAL of The Elitist Establishment has NO BOTTOM!!

…..Trump wins in a CRUSHING, Victory that BATTERS The Rest Of The Field…..and The Establishment Asks:

Well – Isn’t [fill in the LOSER of Choice] The REAL Frontrunner, now?

…..NO – Trump IS!

williamg on February 10, 2016 at 8:44 PM

Of course if you’d actually read up on the issue and checked the facts, you’d know that the Cruz people pretty much just said exactly what CNN had. What’s more, it’s not Cruz’s people’s responsibility to verify CNN nationally aired breaking news released literally only minutes before the vote.

It was Carson’s responsibility to ensure that the correct information was put out by the news media and that it wasn’t easily misunderstood. Carson’s responsibility to ensure that he notified the other candidate’s campaigns directly and right away when he became aware that CNN had put out such easily misunderstood information, and Carson’s responsibility to ensure he had people at each of the precincts to make sure voters knew what was going on with his campaign. After all, it’s a CAUCUS, where people are supposed to try to talk others there into voting for their candidate. It’s not a primary or typical election.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 8:31 PM

Blaming the victim for the Cruz campaign outright lying about Carson dropping out. He never said it, CNN never said it. Only Cruz’s campaign did.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 9:13 PM

Blaming the victim for the Cruz campaign outright lying about Carson dropping out. He never said it, CNN never said it. Only Cruz’s campaign did.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 9:13 PM

Actually the Cruz folks never said Carson was dropping out. That is your problem right there. You think they did, but I have looked high and low all over, and never once did I find where they said he was dropping out to their caucus captains.

The only one on Cruz’s team, who was guessing that it meant Carson was dropping, is Sen King, who replied in a tweet, but was never a speaker in any caucus. He saw quite a few tweets from others not in the caucus state, saying CNN sounded like Carson was going to drop out.

So now that I’ve busted your conspiracy theory, would you mind answering a question of mine?

Why were most of the Trump and Rubio caucus captains speaking about Cruz not being eligible to run as President? Isn’t that a known lie? Funny how the media didn’t report that. But I guess the Trump and Rubio people are “oh so honest” right?

Ronaldusmaximus on February 11, 2016 at 2:28 AM

Denial, it’s not just a tributary of de Personality Disorder River, ya know.

bour3 on February 11, 2016 at 6:01 AM

Your never going to get the job done using a tea spoon, earlgrey.

captnjoe on February 10, 2016 at 3:13 PM

Captain, every week I read more comments from people in agreement with me that HA is RINO website with low rent writing. maybe Salem will wake up to it, maybe they condone it. I don’t know, I’m just trying to do my part by trashing them as often as possible. It is pretty easy to do, and I don’t just do it here.

earlgrey on February 11, 2016 at 1:03 PM

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