Prediction time: Trump 26, Kasich 18, Rubio 16, Bush 14, Cruz 14

posted at 4:41 pm on February 9, 2016 by Allahpundit

What are my numbers based on? Nothing, really, except a few hunches translated into plausible-ish vote totals.

Hunch one: Trump wins comfortably. This doesn’t even count as a hunch, I think, given that he’s led in every poll of New Hampshire tracked by RCP since … late June. No foolin’. Every single one for seven months, and in all but a handful his lead has been double digits. Trump finishing second tonight would be so devastating that no one will trust another poll that has him ahead for the duration of the campaign. He’d get one more shot to win a state in South Carolina and, failing that, he’d be done, I think.

Hunch two: Trump will underperform expectations. The polls have him reliably north of 30 percent, but the lesson of Iowa is that his ground game really is materially weaker than other top-tier candidates’. If you believe the Times, it’s weaker in New Hampshire too. But his lead is so, well, yuge that even a weak ground game can’t deny him victory, I assume. Seems safe to think he’ll miss his polling target again but still win easily.

Hunch three: Kasich will do well. Rich Lowry has a smart way to think about Kasich’s support: Since he’s basically re-running Huntsman’s campaign from 2012, replete with some of the same advisors and an intensive focus on New Hampshire, we can guesstimate that Kasich will pull a similar level of support. Huntsman finished with 17 percent. Neither Bush nor Christie has laid a glove on Kasich over the last few months because they were so focused on blowing up Rubio, so New Hampshirites who like him have little reason to reconsider. If anyone surprises tonight by cracking 20 percent and threatening Trump, he’s probably the guy.

Hunch four: Rubio’s ground game will save him from disaster. In this case, “disaster” would be finishing at, say, 12 percent instead of 16 percent, since that would threaten to push him into fourth or even fifth place behind (gasp) Jeb Bush. A man who’s well-organized enough to surprise the world in Iowa shouldn’t be underestimated in New Hampshire, although obviously the dynamics of GOTV are different in a statewide primary than they are in a caucus. Rubio’s the only one of the top five in NH, in fact, who I think has a shot at finishing much better than his polling suggests, partly because of his organization and partly because no one can tell how much his debate “malfunction” matters. What if voters didn’t really care and there’s some critical mass of undecideds who have bought the spin (which happens to be true) that Rubio’s the only one of the four center-righties in NH capable of beating Trump and Cruz over the long run? Wouldn’t surprise me if he pulled mid-20s tonight. It would surprise me if he faded to low double digits.

Hunch five: Jeb will do better than everyone thinks. There are signs of a strong finish for Bush out there, from multiple polls showing him creeping up into the teens to Rubio’s Super PAC targeting him more heavily to Jeb’s own team beginning to raise expectations.

A tie for fourth place with Cruz would be enough to keep Jeb going to Bush-friendly South Carolina. Kasich will obviously keep going too. Christie finishing in the mid- or low single digits should be enough to knock him out, but he may be on a mission to blow up Rubio now. He’s already claimed that he’s headed to South Carolina too. I made this point yesterday but it bears repeating: Barring a shockingly strong finish by Rubio tonight beating all expectations, we already know “the outcome” in New Hampshire even without knowing the exact results. The outcome is that Rubio failed to knock out his competition on the center-right, creating an unholy mess for establishmentarians in South Carolina, Nevada, and the SEC primary on March 1st. Ross Douthat titles his column about that today, “A Party on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown.”

A Rubio-Cruz-Trump race, as I’ve pointed out before, would already be the most ideologically consequential primary battle the G.O.P. has featured in decades if not generations. But at least it would be a relatively orderly battle, in which most of the party leadership would end up behind the Florida senator, rather than turning the knives on one another. If Rubio can’t consolidate things, though — if he falls into a tie with Jeb, let’s say, while Kasich is alone in second place — then we’re in a situation where Jeb might stick around till Florida and Kasich till Ohio, both on March 15th, an eternity away. Meanwhile Trump would have an actual win under his belt and Cruz would have running room in the SEC primary, meaning that the delegate leaders a month from would be all-but-guaranteed to be a candidate running on increasingly Bernie Sanders-ish rhetoric and a candidate feared by G.O.P. elites (on reasonable grounds) as the Barry Goldwater of 2016.

I do not believe, to quadruple (or whatever) down on my not-Trump predictions, that in this scenario the party leadership would eventually resign itself to the Donald, and especially not given the way he’s running now. But if Rubio drops back into the pack and Kasich emerges as the clear New Hampshire winner on the moderate/establishment flank, setting up a Trump-Cruz battle for South Carolina, then we might be starting to approach a universe with only two genuinely plausible scenarios: Either a contested convention with Trump as some kind of kingmaker, or yes, Republican nominee Ted Cruz.

He’s not exaggerating about tonight’s outcome raising the odds of a brokered convention substantially if everything breaks badly for Rubio. Dave Wasserman makes the same point, and it’s hard to disagree given the math. Per Sean Trende, roughly a third of the total number of delegates will have been awarded by the time the SEC Primary is over on March 1st. If the outcome in New Hampshire runs the way I expect, there may be no less than five candidates still competing and divvying up shares of the electorate in a month. I don’t think it’s a exaggeration to say that Team Rubio would rather have Bush fail spectacularly tonight, even if that somehow required Rubio to fare badly too, than to have both of them beat expectations. Rubio needs Jeb out more than he needs to succeed this evening himself. I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Long story short, the theme of the past eight months has been chaos. That’s what I’m betting on tonight. More chaos. While we wait for polls to close, here’s Ben Carson suggesting that he’s open to being VP for a guy who compared his “pathological” temper as a kid to an incurable compulsion not unlike what a child molester feels. Trump/Guy Who Trump Compared To A Child Molester 2016?


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Comment pages: 1 2 3

I don’t believe Rubio has beat any expectations in Ohio yet. Perhaps you meant Iowa?

NiteOwl on February 9, 2016 at 6:15 PM

Iowa. Ohio. As if flyover states matter in these discussions. Iowa got their months of pandering. Nobody cares about them anymore.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:22 PM

Son of mailman: 4th.
Son a bartender: 5th.
Daughter of a vulture capitalist: 11th.

anotherJoe on February 9, 2016 at 6:22 PM

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:19 PM

LOL, +10

JusDreamin on February 9, 2016 at 6:23 PM

So, a strong finish for Kasich would be a really bad thing for the GOPe it seems.

Paperclips on February 9, 2016 at 6:23 PM

Rubio Victory: Foam Party!
Christie Victory: Splosh Party!
Trump Victory: WrestleMania!
Cruz Victory: Mass Baptism!
Kasich Victory: Bean Supper!
Bush Victory: Fiesta!
Carson Victory: Huh?

Joseph K on February 9, 2016 at 6:23 PM

OpticsPolitics [email protected] 2m2 minutes ago

Among GOPs, Ban on Muslims from entering U.S. 66% Support 31% Oppose #NHPrimary #UniteBlue #NewHampshirePrimary

IDontCair on February 9, 2016 at 6:24 PM

Son of mailman: 4th.
Son a bartender: 5th.
Daughter of a vulture capitalist: 11th.

anotherJoe on February 9, 2016 at 6:22 PM

and the TDSers would say

son of a beach: 1st

Senator Philip Bluster on February 9, 2016 at 6:25 PM


The only Twitter list you’ll need to follow the New Hampshire primary
Feb 9 2016
***********

1.0% reporting
Updating…
————–

Republican

CANDIDATE VOTES % DEL
Candidate illustration
Cruz
9 24.3% —
Candidate illustration
Kasich
9 24.3% —
Candidate illustration
Trump
9 24.3% —
Candidate illustration
Christie
3 8.1% —
Candidate illustration
Bush
2 5.4% —
Expand
Source: AP
============

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/the-only-twitter-list-youll-need-to-follow-the-new-hampshire-primary/

canopfor on February 9, 2016 at 6:26 PM

Honestly though, Kasich 18%?

I didn’t know that the mentally handicapped population was so high there.

Paperclips on February 9, 2016 at 6:27 PM

Son of mailman: 4th.
Son a bartender: 5th.
Daughter of a vulture capitalist: 11th.

anotherJoe on February 9, 2016 at 6:22 PM

I’m assuming you’re ranking the son of a slum lord (and shyster in his own right) is number one but who’s two and three?

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:27 PM

For anyone interested, the HA groups twitterstream is still up and running:

https://twitter.com/EdMorrissey/lists/townhall-ha

can_con on February 9, 2016 at 6:28 PM

Here are my much-anticipated predictions.

Trump: 30
Bush: 17
Kasich: 16
Rubio: 15
Cruz: 14
Christie: 4
Fiorina: 3
Carson: 1
Gilmore: -1

MaxMBJ on February 9, 2016 at 6:29 PM

Dennis Lennox [email protected] 8m8 minutes ago

75% of #GOP voters in the #NHPrimary said they were “very worried” about the U.S. economy, per exit poll. #fitn

IDontCair on February 9, 2016 at 6:30 PM

Rubio Victory: Foam Party!
Christie Victory: Splosh Party!
Trump Victory: WrestleMania!
Cruz Victory: Mass Baptism!
Kasich Victory: Bean Supper!
Bush Victory: Fiesta!
Carson Victory: Huh?

Joseph K on February 9, 2016 at 6:23 PM

Hey the church down the street had foam parties for their youth in the 90s, they looked fun.

petunia on February 9, 2016 at 6:31 PM

MaxMBJ on February 9, 2016 at 6:29 PM

Bush 17% oh that is just a sick joke!

petunia on February 9, 2016 at 6:31 PM

Trump 31% 0%
Melania 29% 0%
Ivanka 20% 50%
Tiffany 19% 50%
GOPers 1% 0%

Nomennovum on February 9, 2016 at 5:37 PM

FIFM

TXUS on February 9, 2016 at 6:32 PM

Ben Carson has just become an embarrassment.

What next Ben? Bringing your book to the interviews and holding it up?

PappyD61 on February 9, 2016 at 6:32 PM

Here are my much-anticipated predictions.

Trump: 30
Bush: 17
Kasich: 16
Rubio: 15
Cruz: 14
Christie: 4
Fiorina: 3
Carson: 1
Gilmore: -1

MaxMBJ on February 9, 2016 at 6:29 PM

Well, I for one, was anticipating on these predictions every bit as much as I take the day off when Obama releases his bracket picks for the NCAA men’s basketball championship.

That being said, come on man! Jim Gilmore was a great governor! He should at least end up at 0% off the pity vote. :0

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:34 PM

If I lived in an open primary state like NH – I’d vote Sanders.
Deafdog on February 9, 2016 at 5:31 PM

The only people that can choose which ballot they want are Independents. Registered R’s and D’s do not have a choice. Not sure that qualify as ‘open primary.’

RickinNH on February 9, 2016 at 6:34 PM

HilRods getting her *ss kicked:
——————————-

Democratic

CANDIDATE VOTES % DEL
————————————–
Candidate illustration
Sanders
17 60.7% —
Candidate illustration
Clinton
9 32.1% —
Source: AP

SEE FULL RESULTS AND MAP
=========================

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/the-only-twitter-list-youll-need-to-follow-the-new-hampshire-primary/

canopfor on February 9, 2016 at 6:34 PM

I would be shocked if Kasich breaks double digits.

fossten on February 9, 2016 at 6:34 PM

One major factor could be the fact that this is an open primary. What happens to people that like both Trump and Sanders? Do they believe Sanders has it wrapped up so they vote Trump or do they stay with Bernie?

SDRightWinger on February 9, 2016 at 6:35 PM

Bob Eschliman [email protected] 3m3 minutes ago

Sounds like turnout is so high, they’re extending voting hours in some key precincts. #NHPrimary

IDontCair on February 9, 2016 at 6:38 PM

Is it bad that I care more about Hillary losing big than who wins the Republican Primary?

SDRightWinger on February 9, 2016 at 6:39 PM

yes, he is busy getting ready to go out on the stump as Trump’s VP.

Senator Philip Bluster on February 9, 2016 at 6:10 PM

.
Wow, that’s a tad… early. Oh well, he has some demographics Trump needs to attract, so…

ExpressoBold on February 9, 2016 at 6:39 PM

2016 US ELECTIONS

1m
Photo: Line of people waiting to vote in Merrimack, NH, estimated to be 2 miles long – @StevenWCVB
see original on wcvb.com
==========================

http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/2016-us-elections/

canopfor on February 9, 2016 at 6:40 PM

That’s what it said in the tweet I got from the Clinton campaign.

Walter L. Newton on February 9, 2016 at 6:12 PM

.
Now, would you believe HiLarry! or her campaign… about anything? If she is telling the truth, it would be the first time about pretty near anything. Hate to say that about a li’l ole gramma but…

ExpressoBold on February 9, 2016 at 6:40 PM

This maybe a voting violation, Chris Christie shows up to polling station

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/02/09/wayward-pig-shows-new-hampshire-polling-place/chwdyHFkMG4SlBmsjYoOjO/story.html

SDRightWinger on February 9, 2016 at 6:42 PM

Timothy Salters [email protected] 8m8 minutes ago

I’m a little surprised that Golden Corral hasn’t endorsed Chris Christie yet. #NHPrimary

IDontCair on February 9, 2016 at 6:43 PM

I predict a bunch of shenanigans tonight, with the “late deciders” inexplicably choosing the “surging” ¡Yeb! or ¡Rube!.

Redstone on February 9, 2016 at 6:43 PM

U.S. Chamber Verified account [email protected] 12m12 minutes ago

#Dear45: Can any of the candidates in #NHPrimary be the “Small Business President” we need? http://uscham.com/1OigTeU

IDontCair on February 9, 2016 at 6:45 PM

Cannot wait for Hillary to be handed her big ass tonight…

OmahaConservative on February 9, 2016 at 6:48 PM

He’d get one more shot to win a state in South Carolina and, failing that, he’d be done, I think.

AP, hoping.

Lolo on February 9, 2016 at 6:48 PM

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:09 PM

What TBSchemer is for Paul, you are for Cruz.

I wish you didn’t support him; it makes it hard for me to like him.

Paul I liked a little bit more than Cruz to begin with but TBSchemer made it nearly impossible.

Redstone on February 9, 2016 at 6:48 PM

SDRightWinger on February 9, 2016 at 6:42 PM

Okay that’s just WRONG!
Funny, but wrong :)

JusDreamin on February 9, 2016 at 6:48 PM

I’m assuming you’re ranking the son of a slum lord (and shyster in his own right) is number one but who’s two and three?

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:27 PM

Cruz 2nd. Bush 3rd.

anotherJoe on February 9, 2016 at 6:49 PM

One major factor could be the fact that this is an open primary. What happens to people that like both Trump and Sanders? Do they believe Sanders has it wrapped up so they vote Trump or do they stay with Bernie?

SDRightWinger on February 9, 2016 at 6:35 PM

THIS IS NOT AN OPEN PRIMARY! Only those registered as “independents” can vote in either the Republican or Democrat primary.

Virginia, where one does not register political affiliation is an open primary. And more than one primary was hijacked by filthy Democrats “helping” the GOP pick a candidate. IMO the Commonwealth needs to discard the traditions that date back to Patrick Henry and Thomas Jefferson and close the primary process.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:49 PM

Cannot wait for Hillary to be handed her big ass tonight…

OmahaConservative on February 9, 2016 at 6:48 PM

Bernie’s gonna need it.

Lolo on February 9, 2016 at 6:51 PM

Cruz 2nd. Bush 3rd.

anotherJoe on February 9, 2016 at 6:49 PM

Bush third would be the lead story tomorrow.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:51 PM

Dennis Lennox [email protected] 2m2 minutes ago

54% of #NHprimary #GOP voters say illegal immigrants should get “legal status,” per exit poll. 41% say they should be deported. #fitn

IDontCair on February 9, 2016 at 6:52 PM

Here we go

Trump. 27
Rubio. 23
Kasich 18
Christie. 14
Bush. 12

clevbrian19d on February 9, 2016 at 6:54 PM

I predict a bunch of shenanigans tonight, with the “late deciders” inexplicably choosing the “surging” ¡Yeb! or ¡Rube!.

Redstone on February 9, 2016 at 6:43 PM

I hope not.

BoxHead1 on February 9, 2016 at 6:56 PM

Bush third would be the lead story tomorrow.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 6:51 PM

Cruz 2nd would also be a big story.

anotherJoe on February 9, 2016 at 7:04 PM

OT:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court has agreed to halt enforcement of President Barack Obama’s sweeping plan to address climate change until after legal challenges are resolved.

The surprising move on Tuesday is a blow to the administration and a victory for the coalition of 27 mostly Republican-led states and industry opponents that call the regulations “an unprecedented power grab.”

kcewa on February 9, 2016 at 7:17 PM

My, oh, my, oh, my.

If you own a bakery or pub in New Hampshire, bar the door and man the barricades because one pizzed off and fat Imperial Royal Thighness is about to go on a rampage looking for scotch and anything with whipped cream, chocolate, and mountains of cream on it (Huma, you’re a given).

I just heard the results of a poll taken of Democrats exiting the voting stations.

When asked what was the most important characteristic that a President should possess, these Democrats, who had just voted, said honesty, trustworthiness, and integrity.

When these Democrats, who presumably voted for one of the two Democrats, were asked which candidate – Clinton or Sanders – possessed the characteristics of honesty, trustworthiness, and integrity…

95% OF DEMOCRATIC RESPONDENTS SAID THAT BERNIE SANDERS HAD THEM.

ONLY 5% OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS SAID THAT HER IMPERIAL ROYAL THIGHNESS WAS HONESTY, TRUSTWORTHY, AND HAD INTEGRITY!

Whatever hotel the Clintons are staying at had better confiscate all of the lamps, ashtrays, flower arrangements, tables, and any other potential weapons of Hillary’s mass destruction of everyone close to her…ASAP!

Lime in the Coconut on February 9, 2016 at 8:31 PM

Wrong! Big time!

redware on February 9, 2016 at 9:27 PM

Finally, you demonstrate some taste I approve of. Well played, dear fellow.

M240H on February 9, 2016 at 9:28 PM

Heh. I suspect in real life most of us would get along outside of this cray cray election.

fossten on February 9, 2016 at 9:31 PM

Yep.

Now, back to our scheduled programming …

M240H on February 9, 2016 at 9:36 PM

Well, looks like hotair is two for two in predictions. You had Cruz behind Trump in Iowa, and behind Bush and Rubio in New Hampshire. Wonder where yall will place him in South Carolina.

sleroi on February 9, 2016 at 10:20 PM

As long as Trump comes in FIRST by 10+ points

And Rubio gets dumped to 5th or lower

BigSven don’t give shlt

BigSven on February 9, 2016 at 4:56 PM

Well well well

BigSven called it !

Balls on accurate

AllahP can go pound sand

BigSven on February 10, 2016 at 3:54 AM

As long as Trump comes in FIRST by 10+ pointss

And Rubio gets dumped to 5th or lower

BigSven don’t give shlt

BigSven on February 9, 2016 at 4:56 PM

Well well well

BigSven called it !

Balls on accurate

AllahP can go pound sand

BigSven on February 10, 2016 at 3:56 AM

Well, that win was Yuge. 19 points higher than second place in a field of 9 candidates.

ProfShadow on February 10, 2016 at 5:36 AM

ahem…allow myself to quote myself

I’ll swap Cruz and Rubio in Allah’s line-up. That Kasich juggernaut is incredible this time of year.

DanMan on February 9, 2016 at 4:59 PM

DanMan on February 10, 2016 at 10:00 AM

Well, looks like hotair is two for two in predictions. You had Cruz behind Trump in Iowa, and behind Bush and Rubio in New Hampshire. Wonder where yall will place him in South Carolina.

sleroi on February 9, 2016 at 10:20 PM

Don’t expect the poll articles to diminish in light of this, AP will just move on to the next fringe poll that catches his eye.

Ukiah on February 10, 2016 at 10:55 AM

Prediction time: Trump 26

Hunch two: Trump will underperform expectations.

AAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! OH MY GODHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…. MY STOMACH!!!!HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!! ……OOOOHHHHHH, GAWD!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!….. WHAT KIND OF AIRPLANE GLUE ARE YOU SNIFFING? ……HAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!.. OH!!!, OH!!…..OH MY GAWD!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

williamg on February 10, 2016 at 11:26 AM

Prediction time: Trump 26
Hunch two: Trump will underperform expectations.
AAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! OH MY GODHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…. MY STOMACH!!!!HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!! ……OOOOHHHHHH, GAWD!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!….. WHAT KIND OF AIRPLANE GLUE ARE YOU SNIFFING? ……HAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!.. OH!!!, OH!!…..OH MY GAWD!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

williamg on February 10, 2016 at 11:26 AM

The kind that melts the plastic and the brain. Good for plastic models but bad for the brain.

Sherman1864 on February 10, 2016 at 11:45 AM

AP. Nice prediction. Lol!!!……

Indiana Jim on February 10, 2016 at 1:20 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3