Open thread: The battle for New Hampshire’s silver medal; Update: Fox calls Trump, Sanders winners; Update: Fox, ABC, NBC call silver for Kasich

posted at 6:41 pm on February 9, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

10:29 – A measured Ted Cruz claims vindication from what looks very much like a bronze-medal finish. He’s right that few gave him much chance of doing this well, including Cruz himself, who didn’t spend a lot of money in New Hampshire. Trump has his vindication too, but Cruz might end up with more momentum coming into South Carolina.

10:17 – Rubio doesn’t dodge the debate flop:

10:10 – Trump didn’t speak for too long, unlike Sanders, who went on and on and on. In a further development, Bret Baier noted that Chris Christie won’t qualify for the debate in South Carolina. With a sixth-place finish, one has to wonder whether he’ll remain in the race.

10:05 – Trump’s victory speech starts off with a brief but gracious mention of the other GOP candidates, and then goes into his stump speech, as did Bernie and Hillary. One interesting point: a strong defense of 2nd Amendment rights, complete with an argument for self-defense based on the Paris attacks.

9:50 – Bernie’s still talking, but Cruz is slowly increasing the space between him and Bush for third place, with 43% of the precincts reporting.

9:38 – “Our country was based on one simple principle: fairness.” Actually, it was founded on liberty, not fairness, Senator Sanders.

Also, with 40% of precincts reporting, Hillary’s down to 38.4% of the vote in a state she won eight years ago.

9:26 – Bernie Sanders starts off his victory speech with an 18-point lead over Hillary and 30% of precincts reporting. He thanked Hillary with gracious remarks toward her campaign’s hard work, which didn’t exactly pay off.

9:18 – “Let’s get something that’s long overdue — equal pay for women!” shouts the candidate who paid women on her staff 72 cents on the dollar compared to men.

9:16 – Hillary is railing about secret, unaccountable money in politics, and then argues that Citizens United damaged democracy by attacking … her. This is supposed to be a concession speech, but it’s clear that she’s positioning herself as Chief Victim of the United States. Whatevs.

9:10 – Fox, ABC, and NBC calling second place for Kasich with 27% of precincts reporting. The battle shifts to third place, and Cruz is edging out Bush for it at the moment.

9:00 – The votes are coming in slowly, and not much is changing in the Republican race. Hillary Clinton is planning to concede soon, and Bernie Sanders will give a victory speech. In the GOP race, Ted Cruz is making a bid for third place, while Rubio’s barely remaining in range for delegates. If Cruz can score a third-place win in New Hampshire, he might parlay that into another surprise in South Carolina.

8:42 – Had to step away to do a radio hit on the Jack Riccardi Show in San Antonio, and to finish dinner. It’s still too close to figure out the under-Trump order, but the Democratic results are eye-popping. With 16% of precincts reporting, Sanders has an 18-point lead in a state Hillary won eight years ago, 58/40.

8:00 – Fox News, and everyone else probably, called New Hampshire for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders as soon as the polls closed.

7:39 – There isn’t much to report so far. Most of the discussion has focused on the exit polling, and a significant amount of attention on Kasich. There have not been many actual developments, except for Kasich finding his inner peace.

7:37 – Uh …

7:05 – On the Democratic side, exit polls show that among voters who prioritized trustworthiness voted for Sanders, 93/5. Yikes.

7:03: Most polls have closed, but not all — and Rubio’s campaign wants them to know it:

Update, 6:54 pm ET: And here we go with the exit polls, which mean … not too much. Late deciders are breaking for Donald Trump and John Kasich:

Late-deciding voters in the New Hampshire Republican primary Tuesday are breaking big for Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to Fox News exit polls.

The polls show that Kasich and Trump, a billionaire businessman, each got 21 percent of that vote.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio each got 13 percent of the late deciders, the exit polls show.

That’s the way the exit polls have it laying out overall, too. But it’s good to remember that exit polls are only useful after the vote is counted and the sample is corrected.

Original post follows …

The polls close in New Hampshire at 7 pm ET, so get ready for some Granite State grandstanding. We’ll track the results from the Townhall site, which will have constantly updating totals during the night, although this primary may be busy enough to where we’ll be waiting for a few hours to get final results. Secretary of State Bill Gardner expected a record turnout in both party’s voting, and the early lines backed him up on that prediction:

Monday’s snowstorm appears to have had little effect on New Hampshire residents heading to the polls Tuesday to cast ballots in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary.

City Clerk Matt Normand said the tabulators are running smoothly; the lines at the polls have been moving along; and the weather has really cooperated.
Polls opened at 6 a.m. in the city and by 8:10 a.m., about 700 people had cast ballots in Ward 1, whose residents vote at Webster Elementary School.

A steady stream of voters made their way into the school as exuberant supporters of candidates carried on outside.

Among the candidates showing less exuberance about New Hampshire is Ben Carson. He packed up early and decamped to South Carolina, skipping his own campaign event:

Ben Carson will be notably absent from his New Hampshire primary party on Tuesday.

The retired neurosurgeon will instead fly to South Carolina in the afternoon, his campaign said. Following Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, South Carolina Republicans will vote next, on Feb. 20.

John Kasich did the same thing last week in Iowa, and it didn’t seem to hurt him in New Hampshire. If Carson is ever going to get back in the race, South Carolina has to be his last firewall. Or Alamo, depending on what happens. He can’t do much in New Hampshire today (current RCP average: 2.8%), so getting out to more conservative turf a little earlier seems like a smart play. If Carson wanted to get out of the race, he’d stay put.

It seems pretty clear that Donald Trump will have a good night; even if polling inflates his standing with non-viable voters, he should score well enough to retain some of his double-digit polling lead over the rest of the field. It’s the silver-medal battle that will captivate observers, and it’s a toss-up. Polling in the last week has put Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich in the runner-up slot, and with enough voters making up their minds late, it’s impossible to figure out a favorite.

With that said, here’s what’s at stake for the pack:

  • Rubio — I tend to discount the impact of a bad debate exchange on the subsequent vote; Cruz had arguably his poorest debate showing right before winning the Iowa caucuses. Rubio needs to finish in the top three, and probably second place, to keep donors and backers from getting worried. Anything less than third means South Carolina’s probably out of reach.
  • Cruz – He just needs to have a decent finish in the pack behind Trump. Winning Iowa gave him a pass here. If he finishes significantly below 10%, it might be a problem, but otherwise he’ll be fine. A second-place finish would likely turn the rest of the primaries into a two-way race, however.
  • Kasich – If he doesn’t get a second-place finish, he’s all but done. Where is his path to the nomination without it?
  • Bush – He needs a top-three finish to keep his credibility and his donors viable for another couple of events. Like Kasich, though, it’s tough to see what Bush’s path to the nomination would be from here. Maybe Nevada, but that’s a caucus state, and Bush isn’t a grassroots candidate.
  • Christie — If he finishes out of the medals, he’s done. Unlike the others above, there’s been no hint of polling movement for Christie, not even after showing up Rubio … which is why I doubt that the Rubio campaign is all that concerned about the impact from the debate.

Oh, there’s also the Democratic primary, too. The only suspense there is how badly Bernie Sanders thumps Hillary Clinton. I’ll guess that Sanders gets a 15-point win.

Don’t be surprised if this goes deep into the night before we know who came in second to Trump. As before, updates will come at the top of this post.


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B O R I N G

How many bluegill socks are currently on hotgas?

novaculus on February 10, 2016 at 2:48 AM

LOL!! The Marcobot 9000 fans tears are delicious!

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 2:40 AM

I know, and their tears are more delicious still!

I’ve been drinking so many gallons of tears tonight I think I might have to call in sick to work tomorrow.

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:42 AM

I have tomorrow off. I can’t wait to smear that sanctimonious ahole right2bright/Constitutionalist tomorrow like she did to so many people after Iowa.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 2:49 AM

Time for this old phart to hit the sack… been a great night, wonderful to share it you folks. L8R AllyG8tor

ExpressoBold on February 10, 2016 at 2:49 AM

I have tomorrow off. I can’t wait to smear that sanctimonious ahole right2bright/Constitutionalist tomorrow like she did to so many people after Iowa.

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 2:49 AM

Well, here is a choice bit from earlier on.

He is made for New Hampshire…but his soft approach and liberal attitude is like a soft Trump. So liberal minded will move towards him.

The huge, yuuuuge news is Trump should have taken this by 20 points, easy…and if it’s even close it’s a yuuuuuuge loss.

But if Cruz wins, how many more names can Trump call him before he realizes, that he makes a fool of himself each time?

This is going to be fun.

right2bright on February 9, 2016 at 7:01 PM

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:56 AM

Feb 09, 2016 at 11:13 pm Rational Db8
Didn’t Cruz support John Roberts?

LeeBelieu on February 9, 2016 at 11:19 PM

Trump is spreading that lie, just as he has so many others. In 2000, Cruz suggested Roberts for one member of Bush’s campaign legal advice team members, that’s all. In July of 2001, Cruz was Director of the FTC office of Policy Planning and no longer close to Bush or giving him legal advice. He did an excellent job at the FTC in rolling back needless regulations and refocusing the FTC on free market principles and away from protecting the government and crony capitalism – and he got unanimous bipartisan support for his efforts there. Then in Feb. 2003 he went back to Texas as a partner with a highly respected very large law firm in charge of their Supreme Court division.

Roberts wasn’t even nominated until Jun or July 2005. Trump is just blatantly lying – nothing more than an opportunistic dirty trick smearing Cruz by claiming he’s responsible for Bush nominating Roberts when Cruz had zero to do with it. Then he goes even further with the lie claiming that supposedly makes Cruz guilty of giving us Obamacare. Trump is really despicable that way whenever he feels threatened by someone – he proceeds to lie his tuchus off, throwing proverbial sh!t on the wall to see what might stick, smearing them every way he can possibly think of trying. Just like he lied about supposedly donating to Rand Paul, or “buying” Jeb Bush with a donation when in fact Jeb did NOT give Trump the casino license he wanted after that donation – so Trump of course lies that he never wanted a casino, that if he’d wanted one he’d have gotten it because he always wins – when in fact it’s been all over the papers for literally about two decides the many many times that Trump has tried to get a Florida casino license… or when Carson started beating him in the polls, Trump went from saying what a great wonderful guy with such a calm wonderful temperament to proclaiming that Carson was a YUGE liar with an incurable pathological anger problem that was just like being a child molester, and so on. Then after Iowa, with Carson obviously no longer a threat, but now a perfect prop to use against Cruz, suddenly Carson was transformed right back into a wonderful ethical Christian guy who’s a poor victim of evil Cruz (because of course if Carson is still some nasty mean child molester Trump couldn’t play him up as a sympathetic victim) — all to hurt Cruz and help Trump, so Trump could proclaim that he’d actually won Iowa when in fact the math shows very clearly that there is no way the mix up over Carson’s status could possible have given Cruz the win, Cruz just won outright and it was Trump’s own incompetence that cost him Iowa. And of course Trump also had to lay some of that blame off on his own people who supposedly gave him really bad advice about not needing more of a ground game there… but wait, a YUGE part of Trump’s claims of competence are that he supposedly gets the BEST people, people who would NEVER make such a mistake. Oopsie!!

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 2:57 AM

Whoops quote formatting fail but oh well.

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:57 AM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 2:57 AM

Holy wall of text Batman!

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:58 AM

Delegate Count:

Trump: 17
Cruz: 10
Rubio: 7
Kasich: 4
Bush: 3
Carson: 3
Fiorina: 1
Huckabee: 1
Paul: 1

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 3:00 AM

Delegate Count:

Trump: 17
Cruz: 10
Rubio: 7
Kasich: 4
Bush: 3
Carson: 3
Fiorina: 1
Huckabee: 1
Paul: 1

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 3:00 AM

B-b-b-b-b-but Cruzmentum!

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 3:02 AM

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:56 AM

Yes that all well and good. But I want to do it to her face while she’s online. :D

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 2:57 AM

Holy wall of text Batman!

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:58 AM

She’ll respond to that in four hours. She’s a little slow.

I’m off to bed…

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 3:02 AM

Ann Coulter Retweeted
Bill Kristol [email protected] Feb 4
NH prediction, 5 days out: Rubio 25, Cruz 22, Trump 19, Kasich 17, others single digits.

anotherJoe on February 10, 2016 at 3:03 AM

Delegate Count:

Trump: 17
Cruz: 10
Rubio: 7
Kasich: 4
Bush: 3
Carson: 3
Fiorina: 1
Huckabee: 1
Paul: 1

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 3:00 AM

B-b-b-b-b-but Cruzmentum!

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 3:02 AM

Yeah it seems to have hit a rock in New Hampshire.

Now I am really off to bed…

NWConservative on February 10, 2016 at 3:03 AM

Ah, so tasty!

I have a feeling I’ll be linking that a lot in the coming days.

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 3:05 AM

Anna Netrebko – “Meine Lippen, sie küssen so heiß” live

Anti-ControI on February 10, 2016 at 3:56 AM

.

OmahaConservative on February 10, 2016 at 3:56 AM

If you have Rubio the RoboParrot over for lunch do you offer him some crackers .. some crackers ..some crackers ..some crackers … or some WD40.. some WD40 .. some WD40 .. some WD40?

VorDaj on February 10, 2016 at 4:11 AM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 2:57 AM

Holy wall of text Batman!

Paperclips on February 10, 2016 at 2:58 AM

So you think it was a mistake for me to include the single paragraph return then? Or you’re just wishing I’d included the longer listing of documented Trump lies that I’ve collected so far instead of that short list? ;-)

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:18 AM

Very happy about Cruz :)
Onto South Carolina

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 4:27 AM

That’s just sour grapes, from Db8. It’s also a Democrat talking point, and very self-defeating.

cimbri on February 9, 2016 at 11:23 PM

Silly rabbit, the only way it would be sour grapes is if you assume the one group is somehow inferior as people than the other, or if it’s false information. Neither is true on this side, so I guess you just made clear that you don’t think too well of the average Trump supporter. Hoist by your own petard.

I tried posting some of the applicable reference links showing the actual demographics earlier, but it doesn’t seem to have come throug. So I reformatted a little and will try again in a separate post so at least this part will go through.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:31 AM

Will lsm focus on Kasich this am or is it wall to wall trump?

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 4:37 AM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:31 AM

Try only 3 links or less per post for them to go thru

nuclearoptional on February 10, 2016 at 4:37 AM

The Senate Confirms. It’s not a rubber stamp. Trump, should he win, and take office, will not act without advice and consent of the Senate. I’ve seen weak arguments before but usually they emanate from Miss David Brooks. Sheesh…

ExpressoBold on February 9, 2016 at 11:31 PM

Er…. yeah. And you explain Sotamayor and Kagan, how?

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:42 AM

Try only 3 links or less per post for them to go thru

nuclearoptional on February 10, 2016 at 4:37 AM

Thank you! I’ll give that a shot. Suspected it might be related to link number, but had no clue where HA drew the line…

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:46 AM

Tingles doesn’t like the way cruz pronunces Nevada

That’s all you have chrissy

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 4:49 AM

cimbri on February 9, 2016 at 11:23 PM

Plus anyone wondering where I got the candidate’s biggest supporter demographics info from… here’s a start:

Trump Rides a Blue-Collar Wave Fifty-five percent of his supporters are white working-class.

Dec. 15, 2015: Who really supports Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush — in 5 charts

…When The Fix published an analysis of polling data in July that highlighted the huge role that white voters without college degrees played in forming Trump’s voter base, people were outraged.

No matter that this conclusion was based on cold, hard, scientifically sound polling data. People didn’t believe it. Some of the hostility seemed to stem, quite frankly, from a lack of understanding about the way that polls work. (Yes, we are looking at those of you who emailed us to say that could not be true because you 1) have a Ph.D. or 2) no one called and asked you which presidential candidate you support. Yes, other Fix readers, we really heard a lot from both categories.)

If those were your objections, we would strongly suggest that you read up a bit on polling and statistical methods….

What follows is a fairly detailed description of the standing of the top five Republican presidential primary candidates based on a new Washington Post-ABC News poll…

Donald Trump: Male, less formal education, lower-income…

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.): Women, evangelicals and older voters…

Ben Carson: College-educated, evangelical…

Sen. Marco Rubio: Males, younger voters…

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:50 AM

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 4:49 AM

How does he pronounce it?

OmahaConservative on February 10, 2016 at 4:51 AM

cimbri on February 9, 2016 at 11:23 PM

Candidate’s biggest supporters demographics info, a few more…

Dec. 31, 2015: Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat

…He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics…based on interviews with more than 11,000 Republican-leaning respondents since August…

Here’s an intriguing one, with an animated gif showing how candidate support has shifted over time: The Republican Primary So Far, in One GIF from about Aug. 16th through Dec. 20th, 2015

The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter

And it’s not gender, age, income, race or religion. Trump supporters score highest for authoritarianism.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:53 AM

Ne vah da

Instead of Ne va da

Tingles trying to come up with some reason to dislike him

Ready for the next primary
Now it’s anyone’s game

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 4:54 AM

Trump not only won the Granite State by a wide margin, according to exit polls, Trump won the votes of every education demographic, including those with college and post-graduate degrees.

The GOP frontrunner earned 46% of the vote among those with a high school education or less; second place was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97%
with 13%. Trump earned the support of 38% of those with some college; second place was John Kasich with 14%. Trump earned the support of 32% of college graduates; second place was John Kasich with 18%. Trump won 23% of those with post-graduate study; Kasich came in second with 22%.

John Nolte _ Breitbart

It appears Trumps demographics have improved across the board.

bobthm3 on February 10, 2016 at 5:02 AM

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 4:54 AM

Oh, brother. Tingles is a creep…

OmahaConservative on February 10, 2016 at 5:03 AM

Yup OC

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 5:08 AM

The Senate Confirms. It’s not a rubber stamp. Trump, should he win, and take office, will not act without advice and consent of the Senate. I’ve seen weak arguments before but usually they emanate from Miss David Brooks. Sheesh…

ExpressoBold on February 9, 2016 at 11:31 PM

The thing is, Senate confirmation of Supreme Court nominees is a pretty low bar that’s awfully easy to get over. That’s particularly true when the Senate Majority and President are from the same party. So it’s pretty close to a rubber stamp.

The first line of defense is electing a president who will most likely work hard to appoint only Constitutional conservatives, so we don’t have to pray the Senate refuses to confirm. Particularly if we get the Presidency and hold the Senate.

List: http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/nominations/Nominations.htm

http://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/22435

…[since 1789 to present day] Of the 159 nominations [160 now] for Supreme Court Justice that presidents have submitted to the Senate for confirmation, the Senate has rejected only 12. The first rejection was George Washington’s nomination of John Rutledge to be Chief Justice in 1795; the last, Ronald Reagan’s nominee for Associate Justice, Robert H. Bork, in 1987.

In addition to rejecting nominees, the Senate has failed to approve 24 additional nominees by postponing confirmation, taking no action, or by acting in ways that have encouraged nominees to withdraw from consideration, as with Harriet Miers in 2005.

Nearly 60 percent of rejections have occurred when the president and a majority of senators have been members of opposing political parties. Nearly half of the failed conferrals were nominated in a president’s final year in office. One-third of failed appointments were nominations by presidents who had not been elected to office.

“Senatorial courtesy,” whereby senators will vote against a nominee if the nomination is opposed by one of the nominee’s home state senators, when that senator is a member of the same party as the president, also has been a factor in some rejections….

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:12 AM

Good morning everybody.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 5:19 AM

Good morning everybody.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 5:19 AM

Good morning, RA!

Who is John Galt on February 10, 2016 at 5:20 AM

I’m pretty satisfied with the results from yesterday. Only complaint is Rubio, Kasich, and Bush received to many votes.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 5:21 AM

Feb 09, 2016 at 11:27 pm cimbri
I agree though the Anti Trump forces who rail about Supreme Court nominees don’t mention this. No candidate is perfect but Cruz lobbied for a lifetime of Roberts. If a few issues disqualify Trump how does this plus Corker not disqualify Cruz?

LeeBelieu on February 9, 2016 at 11:33 PM

How does it not disqualify Cruz? Try because it’s not true. Cruz only recommended Roberts for Bush’s campaign legal team in 2000. Cruz had been back in Texas for several years, not working for Bush at all, when Roberts was nominated in mid 2005.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:26 AM

Trump gets more than double his closest challenger.

Sanders beat Clinton by 22%.

Can you hear us now?

talkingpoints on February 10, 2016 at 5:33 AM

Lsm wants to make sure y’all know sanders is the first Jewish candidate to win in NH

Puhleeze

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 5:42 AM

TP,
Let’s see what happens next
2 states down, 48 left

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 5:43 AM

Bill Kristol now predicting Republican ticket as Trump/Kasich.

How do you even respond to that?

Also, given the schizophrenia of this cycle, it can’t be ruled out.

talkingpoints on February 10, 2016 at 5:58 AM

SC is Trump’s strongest state
-costa on MJ

lets see what happens

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 6:08 AM

Hey anyone know who won the Super Bowl?

I bet my paycheck on the Panthers straight up and got 2-1 odds!

Dumb bookie! :D

itsspideyman on February 10, 2016 at 6:33 AM

I just hope if Trump gets elected, all the liberals and all the anti-Trumpers will go out and buy lots of guns, like all the good people did after Obama got in.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 6:40 AM

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 6:40 AM

:)

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 6:44 AM

How does it not disqualify Cruz? Try because it’s not true. Cruz only recommended Roberts for Bush’s campaign legal team in 2000. Cruz had been back in Texas for several years, not working for Bush at all, when Roberts was nominated in mid 2005.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 5:26 AM

Roberts is not the first justice appointed by a Republican who has failed to uphold the constitution.

Besides, Trump’s sister is a flaming liberal judge. Guess who’s likely to be nominated if he wins. At least the others at least talked like originalists.

Occams Stubble on February 10, 2016 at 7:02 AM

So now that Cruz has unexpectedly come in third, can we have a big party like we did when Rubio came in third in Iowa?

Occams Stubble on February 10, 2016 at 7:03 AM

The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter

And it’s not gender, age, income, race or religion. Trump supporters score highest for authoritarianism.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:53 AM

Multiple divorcees also skew heavily to Trump, and we all know what trash THOSE people are.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:05 AM

2nd That OS :)

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 7:06 AM

Free stuff ands a Strongman

Welcome to the new America!

The legacy of Obama.

PappyD61 on February 10, 2016 at 7:16 AM

Wonder if right2bright will show up today

OmahaConservative on February 10, 2016 at 7:16 AM

I dont know why all the Trumpkins are getting all gitty about NH… I mean really, NH is almost as blue as they come.

I mean seriously, dont Trumpkins understand how much people HATE Trump? The guy consistently sports 50+% unfavorable. You can not win a general with that kind of numbers. That makes it a ceiling for him. I dont ever see Trump getting more than 35% at any time.

Now, I do agree that as people drop out that the votes have to go elsewhere, but once again, I point to the 50+%… those voters for the most part are not going to Trump.

Add in the fact the media has not even started to work on Trump, I could see ( if he is indeed the candidate ) going much higher on that.

Head to head as it stands, both Sanders and Billary beat Trump. Catchy phrases only gets you so far. You need something of substance.

Anyways, one more point I like to make. Over the last few months, the repulsive Trumpkins have told me time and time again that Trump has changed his mind on many things when I point out certain stuff like say, the want of socialized medicine, gun control, support for partial birth abortions….Well, if that is the case with him being able to take back what he has said and supported, why is it not allowed for others to do the same?

watertown on February 10, 2016 at 7:19 AM

Multiple divorcees also skew heavily to Trump, and we all know what trash THOSE people are.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:05 AM

I have standards I will have you know. My divorces were one at a time and only once did it involve sisters.

Again, I have standards to uphold. The younger sister was really hawt and defied gravity.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:21 AM

watertown on February 10, 2016 at 7:19 AM

How many delegates are to be won in blue states and how many in red states.

Something to consider.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:23 AM

She will OC

We knew Trump was going to win, we were hoping for Cruz to be in the top 3 and he made it….it’s all good
Now it’s onto SC :)

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 7:25 AM

I wouldn’t worry so much about Trumps “unfavorables “. Hillary is at least 10 times less likable.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 7:28 AM

Lsm wants to make sure y’all know sanders is the first Jewish candidate to win in NH

Puhleeze

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 5:42 AM

They must remind it to minority voters so they wouldn’t stray off Hillary’s plantation.

Rix on February 10, 2016 at 7:28 AM

Interesting note, well interesting to me. I am in the midst of a hostile takeover of my company and just found out that my major competitor has just been bought out by the 800 lb gorilla in our industry.

The next couple of months should be fun! What is life without a good fight?

More beer.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:28 AM

I wouldn’t worry so much about Trumps “unfavorables “. Hillary is at least 10 times less likable.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 7:28 AM

It is very hard, but you can win with an unfavorable rating. However, HRC is negative in the trustworthy category, and to date no one has won the Presidency when their trustworthiness was below the waterline.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:31 AM

I couldn’t work for a gorilla, too unpredictable.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:32 AM

How many delegates are to be won in blue states and how many in red states.

Something to consider.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:23 AM

This is true. The republican nominee already has a uphill battle because many of the states with high counts tend to lean more to the democrat side. You pair this with the high turn off Trump has with many voters, many purple type states could swing to the democrats faster than many think. People dont like Trump. Sure, Cruz can be up there from time to time, but Cruz and Rubio both have much more of an ability to gain than they have to lose.

Trump tapped into the anger that voters have right now. Along with that anger has come a very poor view of him. You can show that your angry, but there is a line you have to tip toe around.

watertown on February 10, 2016 at 7:32 AM

I couldn’t work for a gorilla, too unpredictable.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:32 AM

Yeppers. I am used to being a big fish in a very small puddle. If I sold out I would have to work for a living.

When you marry for money, you have to earn every cent.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:38 AM

Bill Kristol now predicting Republican ticket as Trump/Kasich.

How do you even respond to that?

Also, given the schizophrenia of this cycle, it can’t be ruled out.

talkingpoints on February 10, 2016 at 5:58 AM

Bill Kristol is singlehandedly supporting the sagging hallucinogens market. If Trump excelled so far in anything, it was reading the crowd’s mood. Outside NH and OH, Kasich is less popular among the base than toenail fungus. Plus, Trump should expect to carry Ohio on the power of blue-collar vote, or he won’t win anyway. He needs a Southerner to balance the ticket, preferably but not necessarily a woman and/or a minority in their 40-ies or 50-ies (to be groomed for the consequent run), someone willing to openly embrace and endorse the Wall but quietly help Trump to climb off the Muslim ban tree. Popularity with the Tea Party base and foreign policy expertise are preferred. Susana Martinez fits the bill like a glove but if she refuses to run or fails to vet, bets are off. Technically, Cruz meets the requirements quite closely but there was too much bad blood between the camps lately, and his talents would be wasted in the VP slot.

Rix on February 10, 2016 at 7:39 AM

It is very hard, but you can win with an unfavorable rating. However, HRC is negative in the trustworthy category, and to date no one has won the Presidency when their trustworthiness was below the waterline.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:31 AM

That’s why I don’t see why people say Trump guarantees President Hillary. He might not be a perfect candidate, or even a good candidate, but Hillary is just so much worse.

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 7:42 AM

Hang in there HL
I’ll sendore beer your way

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 7:47 AM

Racistanyway on February 10, 2016 at 7:42 AM

How? The Republicans this cycle are anything but team players, and rightly so, however we all know how the Donks work. In the end they will vote as a single block with the added force of every minority vote they can buy. This race is going to leave the Red side of the aisle bitter no matter who gets the Republican nod. Who is going to win the POTUS chair is going to boil down to just 5% of the vote.

Limerick on February 10, 2016 at 7:50 AM

When you marry for money, you have to earn every cent.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:38 AM

I married for her big cans, she married for my earnings, she still has the cans, I’m penniless.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:54 AM

Who is going to win the POTUS chair is going to boil down to just 5% of the vote.

Limerick on February 10, 2016 at 7:50 AM

Turnout. Last election, President Obama was very effective in getting the white Republican vote to stay home. The key is not just to energize your base, but to get the opponents base to stay home.

Republicans in the past have been terrible at suppressing they vote of the Democrats because they reuse to attack their opponents on a personal basis.

Very hard for any Republican to win without suppressing the vote. Which Republican candidate will be able to do this? People solely blame Romney for the negative turnout, and he bears blame, but President Obama ran a brilliant campaign to suppress the Republican vote. Heck, there was even an article in the NYT that outlines their strategy.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 8:00 AM

Good Morning, y’all!

“I’m not just an entertainer. I’m an influence, a wielder of opinion, a force… a force!” – Lonesome Rhodes (Andy Griffith), “A Face in the Crowd”, 1957

My take: http://bit.ly/20L4uwo

Hillary After New Hampshire: From “The Inevitable Candidate” to Just Another “Face in the Crowd”?

kingsjester on February 10, 2016 at 8:00 AM

I married for her big cans, she married for my earnings, she still has the cans, I’m penniless.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:54 AM

You just gave the best reason for deficit spending that I have ever seen.

I Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday for A Hamburger nice cans Today.

Bishop/Cans 2016

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 8:03 AM

Hang in there HL
I’ll sendore beer your way

cmsinaz on February 10, 2016 at 7:47 AM

Thanks, but no need to worry I am just fine. I will accept the beer of course!

I did mention to The Wife that she might have to live on a budget and she said “not if I divorce you”. She did have a good point. Wimmen!!

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 8:05 AM

Opps, this ain’t QOTD!

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 8:16 AM

“Our disappointment is not on you, it’s on me. I did not do well on Saturday night. But listen to me: That will never happen again.”

Later in that same speech, Mr. Rubio went on to say: “Our disappointment is not on you, it’s on me. I did not do well on Saturday night. But listen to me: That will never happen again.”

(That’s a joke, son. But, I can’t help but think it might be the impression that sticks with Rubio like the “oops” moment stuck with Rick Perry.)

makattak on February 10, 2016 at 8:22 AM

kingsjester on February 10, 2016 at 8:00 AM

Did you sell your HotGas condo too along with so many others?

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 8:32 AM

Republicans in the past have been terrible at suppressing they vote of the Democrats because they reuse to attack their opponents on a personal basis.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 8:00 AM

Trump will not have that problem.

bobthm3 on February 10, 2016 at 8:35 AM

Unbelievable if Trump loses NH…after some polls giving him huge double digit leads.

This proves what many of us have stated…he cannot overcome his unfavorables…he is just too disliked.

Even if he wins a close one, it’s a huge setback…some had him 20 or 30 points ahead of everyone.

Cruz was not even supposed to finish, and he may take it all…

Cruz is cruzin…

right2bright on February 9, 2016 at 6:57 PM

Oof.

Go RBNY on February 10, 2016 at 8:47 AM

Under the new post-Iowa metric of victory, known as dollars per vote, Cruz won at $18 each.

I’m not saying, I’m just saying…

jnelchef on February 10, 2016 at 9:01 AM

Can you hear us now?

talkingpoints on February 10, 2016 at 5:33 AM

This is exactly what I was thinking this morning.

magicbeans on February 10, 2016 at 9:10 AM

:]

IDontCair on February 10, 2016 at 9:11 AM

I married for her big cans, she married for my earnings, she still has the cans, I’m penniless.

Bishop on February 10, 2016 at 7:54 AM

You just gave the best reason for deficit spending that I have ever seen.

I Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday for A Hamburger nice cans Today.

Bishop/Cans 2016

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 8:03 AM

There are tears coming down my face. Snot is flowing from my nose. And my stomach is cramping. Wicked. Funny. Truth. Guys are guys.

M240H on February 10, 2016 at 9:19 AM

When you marry for money, you have to earn every cent.

HonestLib on February 10, 2016 at 7:38 AM

Mom always said if you marry for money, it will be the hardest money you’ve ever earned (or, something like that). I took it to heart and married the tall, good-looking, sweet, poor guy. Doh! It worked out, but, really Mom? You couldn’t have said, make sure he isn’t too poor either, ’cause that’s going to be a struggle.

Fallon on February 10, 2016 at 9:21 AM

Trump is spreading that lie, just as he has so many others.

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 2:57 AM

(psst), Carson has dropped out of the race, you know.

Russ in OR on February 10, 2016 at 10:15 AM

Losers

Schadenfreude on February 10, 2016 at 11:22 AM

Rational Db8 on February 10, 2016 at 4:53 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHKAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA!

….YOU LOSER!!…..LOSE RULSER??!!…….LOSER – YOU!!!…….SCHULSER – LOSE!!!! HAHAHAHA!!

….LOSER – LOSER – LOSER you!!!

williamg on February 10, 2016 at 8:17 PM

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