Oh my: Final Emerson College poll shows Bush second, Rubio slipping to fourth place at 12%

posted at 8:01 pm on February 8, 2016 by Allahpundit

Why care about a poll from Emerson College? Because, as you may remember, they were the pollster that predicted Iowa most accurately. In fact, of the dozens of polls taken in Iowa in the months before the caucuses, the only one to put Marco Rubio north of 20 percent was Emerson. They had him at 22 percent the day before the vote. He finished with 23 percent. Not bad.

Their final prediction for New Hampshire: Rubio at … 12 percent, the worst numbers he’s pulled in the last seven surveys of the state. Time for the media to break out its black bunting, just in case Jeb Bush(!) and Kasich kill Bambi tomorrow night.

With the New Hampshire primary happening tomorrow, a new Emerson College statewide survey shows Republican Donald Trump poised to win in the Granite State with 31% of likely GOP primary voters. The battle is on for second place, with the next four candidates separated by just 5 percentage points: Jeb Bush (16%), John Kasich (13%), Marco Rubio (12%) and Ted Cruz (11%). In the Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders maintains a lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 42%…

Trump skidded from 37% on Thursday to 22% on Saturday. However, he surged to 33% on Sunday, following his GOP debate performance. Overall, Bush trended upward, from 12% on Thursday to 19% on Saturday and 21% on Sunday. His gain seemed to be at Rubio’s expense. Rubio fell from a high of 17% on Friday to single digits on Sunday. Bush and Kasich have the highest favorability ratings among likely GOP primary voters. Bush’s differential is +17 (55% favorable, 38% unfavorable). Kasich is +15 (52% favorable, 37% unfavorable), and Rubio’s margin is +10 (50% to 40%). Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are nearly equal (49% to 46%). Among the top GOP contenders, only Cruz is in negative territory, with a -21 rating (35% favorable, 56% unfavorable).

Don’t despair yet, though, Rubio fans. Remember the numbers from the last Emerson College poll of New Hampshire, which I blogged on January 27th? That one had Jeb Bush at … 18 percent, the one and only poll taken in NH to have him above 14 since Trump entered the race last June. Rubio, meanwhile, stood at a paltry nine percent while Ted Cruz notched eight, unusually poor showings in both cases given that they’ve each been reliably scoring in double digits since then. In other words, if you believe Emerson’s data, Jeb Bush actually lost a few points of support since late January while Rubio and Cruz each gained three. Those trends would be lost on you if all you saw was the screaming headline about Jeb being in second. He’s been in second for two weeks now — at least according to Emerson.

On the other hand, if you’re looking for evidence that Rubio’s Mr. Roboto answer at the debate hurt him, the Friday through Sunday trendline here is all you need. Nor is it crazy to think that other polls are lowballing Jeb and that he stands a chance of a surprisingly strong finish tomorrow, maybe even to the point where he poses a threat to Rubio. My pal Karl flagged this intriguing bit of campaign news earlier this morning on Twitter:

Conservative Solutions is Rubio’s Super PAC. Suddenly, despite the hype about Kasich’s strength, they’re moving to attack Jeb Bush. Is that because Team Marco thinks Kasich’s support is solid and outside their “lane,” meaning that attacking him won’t move votes to Rubio? Or is it because their internal polling shows that there really is a Bush surge happening and they need to tamp it down before Bush catches some momentum? The worst possible outcome for Rubio in New Hampshire is to finish behind Jeb, and the further behind he is the more damaging the result will be. What hope does Rubio have in South Carolina if he ends up fighting there just to split the center-right vote with Bush?

Here’s Rubio debating himself on whether Obama knows what he’s doing.


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I’m listening to Trump live at your link, and he talks about deporting the “criminal illegals” but doesn’t mention deporting the rest of them. It’s kind of conspicuous because he mentions specifically criminals and not the rest.

And it seems that over the last weeks or so he’s stopped mentioning his pledge to deport all the illegals, though I haven’t seen a lot of his speeches. Nothing about anchor babies either. Of course, just because he doesn’t mention it doesn’t mean that’s still not his policy. But why not mention it?

anotherJoe on February 8, 2016 at 8:37 PM

Hmm. This is from his site:

Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally.

Detention—not catch-and-release. Illegal aliens apprehended crossing the border must be detained until they are sent home, no more catch-and-release.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/immigration-reform

These are his official positions and the only ones I see where he talks about sending people back. Have these changed from the beginning? I thought I remembered it differently.

So much for “deport them all!” He mentions nothing about any sort of legalization/work permits etc., so that could mean anything.

Now, how is his position so different from Cruz’s again?

RockyMtnGirl on February 8, 2016 at 8:58 PM

Trump changed a position?!?!

Surely you jest.

Must be a day ending in y or something.

Cruz current immigration position is stronger.

talkingpoints on February 8, 2016 at 9:25 PM

OK this isn’t funny anymore is something wrong with Marco? This JUST happened https://t.co/qez614cqUI

TheMadHessian on February 8, 2016 at 9:13 PM

Maybe it’s the partying and drugs or something:

http://legalschnauzer.blogspot.com/2016/02/marco-rubio-with-curious-late-night.html

An excerpt:

In 1989, a year before Rubio was arrested with his friend Angel Barrios and another unidentified male friend in Alice Wainwright Park in south Miami, ostensibly for drinking beer in a car after closing time in a park known as a pickup locale for gays, Rubio sang and danced in a South Miami High School troupe. The song and dance troupe was based on the Chippendales but with a very gay theme: half Chippendales and half Village People.

After flunking out of Tarkio College in Missouri, Rubio returned to Miami where he hung around with his old high school friend Barrios. Barrios started an on-line gay porn business called Flava Works, which is still in business today live streaming sexual acts between black and Latino men.

In order to prepare for the University of Florida, Rubio attended Santa Fe Community College in Gainesville. Republican sources have told WMR that Rubio, Barrios, and two other students shared a townhouse in Gainesville that was known locally as a “coke house,” where cocaine was readily available, as were almost non-stop parties in what amounted to an off-campus gay frat house.

anotherJoe on February 8, 2016 at 9:25 PM

I’ve been lurking here for 8+ years now…I found my way here when Obama was first running.

We were all new here once, including myself, but I’ll be damned if I don’t see a lot of names I don’t recognize here lately.

BobM88 on February 8, 2016 at 9:31 PM

Cnn/wmur poll for 2/8

trump 31%
Rubio 17%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 10%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 5%
Christie 4%
Carson 3%

Suck it up, losers.

str8tface on February 8, 2016 at 9:32 PM

anotherJoe on February 8, 2016 at 9:25 PM

Has Marco ever had a job?

TheMadHessian on February 8, 2016 at 9:34 PM

Jeb! is gonna come from behind, grab that thar nomination, take the fight to Hills, and get has backside handed to him in defeat.

phadras on February 8, 2016 at 9:46 PM

OK this isn’t funny anymore is something wrong with Marco? This JUST happened https://t.co/qez614cqUI He is freaking out— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) February 9, 2016

TheMadHessian on February 8, 2016 at 9:13 PM

It’s the pressure. (In my best Das Boot accent.)

claudius on February 8, 2016 at 9:52 PM

A Bush surge? What the hell is wrong with you people?

rbj on February 8, 2016 at 8:06 PM

…why does everybody keep ignoring the Heroin problem in NH?….it’s the worst in the nation per capital.

JugEarsButtHurt on February 8, 2016 at 9:55 PM

Cnn/wmur poll for 2/8

trump 31%
Rubio 17%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 10%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 5%
Christie 4%
Carson 3%

Suck it up, losers.

str8tface on February 8, 2016 at 9:32 PM

c’mon Carson two more points. Put fat bastard in last place

carson53 on February 8, 2016 at 9:58 PM

It’s beyond bizarre that the two people who benefit from whatever Rubio fall there might be are the two candidates-Bush and Kasich-standing in the way of Christie, who took the shots at Rubio.

I’m not a fan of his, but I think the media was eager to play up the Rubio debate ‘disaster’ because they believe he represents the strongest threat to the Dem.

changer1701 on February 8, 2016 at 10:00 PM

I think if Kasich or Jeb gets above 20% we should kick the state out of the union.

jhffmn on February 8, 2016 at 10:12 PM

Perhaps the reason Jeb is up, if he is up, is that he comes from a family of very successful carpetbaggers, so it is a matter of Yankee pride to support him up in Yankeeland.

claudius on February 8, 2016 at 11:15 PM

Every single post, poll and pundit is basing their argument on who they want to win; “their guy”. It’s gone beyond partisan- I was out of the country for a few days and to come back and read all the articles and commentary with fresh eyes was revealing- trump will likely will NH, Rubio 2nd, and then Kasich or Cruz. Christie is done- fat man with a chip on his shoulder. Buh-by. This election will very likely destroy the GOP, and prisoner # 348649 will legislate America from behind the walls of a federal prison.

BettyRuth on February 8, 2016 at 11:57 PM

But the campaign is still going on.

Maybe it’s part of a plan to try to raise his general election numbers (though that is just wild speculation). If so it’s stupid because to win the general election immigration has to be his most solid point with his base because if he goes noticeably squishy on that then his “troops” would become demoralized and unenthused, and he would lose to even a socialist. If that’s his plan I want out.

anotherJoe on February 8, 2016 at 9:01 PM

What’s this, a Trumper becoming disillusioned because Trump changed his position?

Dude, Trump never had a position to begin with, at least not one he didn’t change five minutes ago.

Never say we didn’t warn you.

Grace_is_sufficient on February 9, 2016 at 3:28 AM

Cruz and Carson are whining about clothes in Florida; Rubio is robotic, so he’s disqualified now; Christie is crazed. Half of Republicans have lost their crap for a man who has been a liberal his entire life.

Bottom line: The Stupid Party stands to let either a felon or a socialist waltz into the Oval Office.

It was a nice idea, Founding Fathers. Obviously, humanity is entirely too crooked and inane for it.

Grace_is_sufficient on February 9, 2016 at 3:34 AM

John Kasich, Bernie Sanders win in Dixville Notch, New …
http://www.washingtontimes.com/…/john-kasich-bernie...
The Washington Times
6 hours ago – The tiny community of Dixville Notch released first-in-the-state results for the first-in-the-nation primary just after midnight and it was a 3-2 victory

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/8/john-kasich-bernie-sanders-win-dixville-notch-new-/

davod on February 9, 2016 at 5:59 AM

Cruz and Clinton win in Millsville, NH.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/…/john-kasich-bernie..

davod on February 9, 2016 at 6:13 AM

Just get this information from team Cruz, Marco Roboto is suspending his presidential campaign after New Hampshire.

will13smith on February 9, 2016 at 6:37 AM

That Bush/Rubio GOPe tag team is just like the phony wrestlers. One surges while the other rests etc.
We are watching the Northeast liberal GOPe (anybody votes) primary, known here as Massachusetts north. All the Boston liberals defected to New Hampshire to escape the outrageous taxes they imposed on those they deserted and left behind.
This is the least religious state in the nation, thus lying and deception, if you don’t get caught, has no real consequences–just upside.

Don L on February 9, 2016 at 7:10 AM

This election will very likely destroy the GOP, and prisoner # 348649 will legislate America from behind the walls of a federal prison.

BettyRuth on February 8, 2016 at 11:57 PM

No, it was the co-ruling complicit, deceitful, backstabbing GOPe that destroyed the GOP. One removes cancers if one seeks to survive, and the GOPe is the cancer. Nature is merely running its course. It will get bloodier yet, because the big-money won’t go away easily.

Don L on February 9, 2016 at 7:16 AM

Rubio’s not my candidate. But what Christie calls repetitive, I call consistent.

Christie may actually be able to learn a thing or two from Rubio, you know, given his on again, off again bromance with President Obama.

Bottom line, Rubio will place second in New Hampshire. He’s a far better choice than Christie, Kasich or Bush- whom we can start waving buh-bye to.

Then Christie can go back to defending President Obama and openly flaming Republicans.

Marcus Traianus on February 9, 2016 at 7:29 AM

The thing is the Republican Party nationally looks good in one metric despite all the problems – elected officials at the state and national levels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

Look at the maps of governors, state house and state senate to see a sea of red.

Look how much Trump got from echoing Reagan on making America great again. That is a pretty simple idea. Rubio says it too. That is what appeals to me. If America goes the way of Europe then in 100 years like today, you all who can’t name five living Germans will see the same thing happen where individual Americans are less important. Bigger Government = Smaller Citizen (credit D. Prager)

timoric on February 9, 2016 at 7:33 AM

Sounds like NH bought the establishment/medias candidate hook line and sinker, Kasich (whose a rhino that stutters with facial ticks)!

soapyjeans on February 9, 2016 at 7:42 AM

Kasich is no rino. He’s a democrat and should be running with Hillary and Bernie.

AprilApple on February 9, 2016 at 7:51 AM

The Media will do everything in their power to have nominated the weakest Republican candidate.

justltl on February 9, 2016 at 7:59 AM

Why does anyone even look at polls anymore? 2012, if not Iowa last week, shows they’re meaningless.

As for the debate, Christie should be a bully towards Democrats, not fellow Republicans. Bad form and just gave the Dems a gift.

evergreen on February 9, 2016 at 8:03 AM

evergreen on February 9, 2016 at 8:03 AM

Iowa’s polls were correct, they couldn’t predict Cruz stealing Carson’s votes thus taking away Trump’s win. Again, the polls were correct.

Aslans Girl on February 9, 2016 at 8:34 AM

So much for “deport them all!” He mentions nothing about any sort of legalization/work permits etc., so that could mean anything.

Now, how is his position so different from Cruz’s again?

RockyMtnGirl on February 8, 2016 at 8:58 PM

No. You misunderstand. At the beginning of his policy it states quite clearly he will enforce existing immigration law. Existing immigration law is to deport all illegal aliens where found. It is the establishment candidates that deviate from this and promise NOT to enforce the law.

Trump’s position haven’t changed. And Trump’s immigration policy is not that different from Cruz’s because Jeff Sessions apparently worked on the immigration policy for both campaigns. Trump just released his first.

However, Trump has taken it a step further by hiring the key aide who worked 7 years for Sessions, and helped formulate most of his positions, as a senior policy advisor. That tells me he’s serious about his immigration policy. What other campaign has hired someone with those types of credentials into their inner circle?

dominigan on February 9, 2016 at 9:07 AM

They had a character on the Sopranos that was always repeating himself. I can’t remember his name but he uttered the immortal words, “It’s not good to go into the unknown, not knowin'”, when they were talking about hiding out in Elvisland, a place with no Jews or Italians.

claudius on February 9, 2016 at 9:07 AM

4 choices for NH….

Status quo

Socialism

Strongman

Constitution

Most candidates are Status Quo….

Your choice NH!

PappyD61 on February 9, 2016 at 10:17 AM

Wow, even with the gallons and gallons of water Rush was carrying for him yesterday?

So, you think Rush will double down again today on how wonderful Rubio is and how everybody should ignore his debate crash?

Paperclips on February 9, 2016 at 10:18 AM

Because polls are *so accurate* we shouldn’t bother with elections anymore.

ProfShadow on February 9, 2016 at 10:40 AM

Christie’s attacks won’t help him at all.

Mercyneal on February 9, 2016 at 10:40 AM

Cnn/wmur poll for 2/8

trump 31%
Rubio 17%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 10%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 5%
Christie 4%
Carson 3%

Suck it up, losers.

str8tface on February 8, 2016 at 9:32 PM

Trump won the last pre-Iowa poll. I think even a blind squirrel could find the nut in NH, so I assume Trump will, but I’d be hesitant to celebrate before the fat lady sings in NH lest the gods of chance frown upon the casino magnate.

Immolate on February 9, 2016 at 10:45 AM

This poll is clearly showing Ted Cruz as the winner, right? Because everyone at Hot Air knows that the candidate in third place is the real winner, right? We all learned that after Iowa. We all learned that the real winner is the guy that came in third.

blink on February 8, 2016 at 10:06 PM

If Cruz can improve on the 14% at the end of the day, then he is a winner. It doesn’t mean he’s “the” winner, as that will be the person who wins, probably Trump.

Immolate on February 9, 2016 at 10:48 AM

Iowa’s polls were correct, they couldn’t predict Cruz stealing Carson’s votes thus taking away Trump’s win. Again, the polls were correct.

Aslans Girl on February 9, 2016 at 8:34 AM

The most poignant distillation of sore-looserism so far this season. The sweet bitterness of your tears is most delicious and sublime.

Denial: it’s not just for Cleopatra anymore.

Immolate on February 9, 2016 at 10:56 AM

Trump will come in around 22%, Cruz will be close if not above this, lets say 21% and Rubio has a ceiling of 19%.

My Prediction for Iowa was Cruz 32, Trump 22 and Rubio 23.

Constitutionalist on February 9, 2016 at 11:14 AM

Looks like Cruz is going to beat Trump again.

I don’t believe in Kasichmentum.

kcewa on February 9, 2016 at 12:03 PM

I didn’t realize till just now that Rubio is the guy off The Bends album cover.

Dick Richard on February 9, 2016 at 2:25 PM

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