Final CNN tracking poll of NH: Trump leads big, Rubio second, Bush and Christie in deep trouble

posted at 10:01 pm on February 8, 2016 by Allahpundit

Another poll-related election-eve overnight thread for you in case you need to vent your anxieties before the big vote, especially after that bombshell Emerson College poll earlier. I can’t remember a primary where the order of finish — beyond first place — was as much of a mystery as New Hampshire is right now. Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich each have a legit shot at second place and each could conceivably end up well ahead of the other two, which would change the race before South Carolina. Even if they’re bunched up, the order of finish will be crucial to the media narrative on Wednesday. A Rubio-Cruz-Kasich 2-3-4 means Rubio has a plausible case that he’s the center-right champion, even if Kasich isn’t far behind; a Kasich-Cruz-Rubio 2-3-4 means that Rubio is a paper tiger and that it’s time for the establishment to panic as the race moves south.

The only near-certainty, even with a small sample and a high margin of error (5.2 percent), is that Trump’s going to win regardless of whether he underperforms. He’s been at 30 percent or better in seven of the last eight polls of New Hampshire, including tonight’s new one from CNN. His lead in those polls has never been smaller than double digits. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll finish a bit short of 30, as his ground game in New Hampshire has been under fire since Iowa (Trump actually told the AP this weekend, “It would seem to me that people would just go out and vote”) but even New Hampshire polls can only be so wrong. If you’re a Trump fan, start preparing for the return of the “Beltway Republicans contemplate Trump as nominee” news cycle that’s been on hiatus ever since he lost Iowa. If you’re a Rubio fan, you’ve got reason to celebrate the CNN poll too: He’s still in second, and based on the small subsample polled yesterday (on Super Bowl Sunday), the debate didn’t hurt him.

Trump holds 31%, down two points from the February 3-6 release, but within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Behind him, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 17% support — within the margin of sampling error of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 14%, but significantly ahead of the fourth and fifth place candidates in the poll, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 10% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7%…

About three-quarters of the interviews conducted for this poll were completed before the Republican candidates debated Saturday night, their final such match-up before Tuesday’s election.

Although the post-debate sample size is too small to produce a separate estimate of the vote, interviews conducted Sunday and Monday found no drop in support for Rubio, and actually showed a slimmer margin between Trump and Rubio.

If you’re wondering about Chris Christie, he’s stuck at four percent, a point behind … Carly Fiorina. The last time he was at double digits in New Hampshire was in an ARG poll taken almost a month ago, when he was at 10. According to FiveThirtyEight’s model, he’s got a 69 percent chance of finishing sixth or worse.

63

Jeb’s got a 49 percent chance of finishing fifth or worse, which would put him behind Trump, Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz in some order and would, one would think, start the Bush 2016 death watch. But who knows? Against all odds, Christie is vowing to soldier on to South Carolina no matter how he does tomorrow night. Bush, who’ll certainly fare better in SC than Christie will, is likely to march on too. Christie, at least, may have talked himself into believing that Rubio really is dangerously unqualified to be president and therefore must be stopped so long as Christie has the money to keep going, even though a decisive defeat in New Hampshire tomorrow would mean the end of his own chances. I’d bet that impulse happens a lot on the trail — given the ego, ambition, and sour grapes involved in losing to a guy whom you consider less worthy than yourself, every candidate must be tempted to undertake seek-and-destroy missions against their adversaries. It rarely happens because it risks alienating influential members of the party who don’t want to see a prospective nominee crippled out of spite, but maybe Christie doesn’t care. Imagine passing on a chance in 2012 to be a serious contender for your party’s nomination only to find yourself an also-ran this time, badly trailing a guy who sometimes seems like he can only speak in scripted soundbites. Maybe he’ll hit the trail in SC as an attack dog against Rubio for Kasich or Bush. Or maybe he’s full of it and the South Carolina events he’s planning are just false bravado to encourage his supporters to vote while he quietly plans to quit tomorrow night if he performs as expected.

Exit question via NPR: Will Trump inflict the final humiliation on Jeb tomorrow night by “stealing” his delegates? Answer: Yes, if Trump wins and Bush finishes with less than 10 percent.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 3 4 5

Article linked up-top on the Twitter tag #NHPrimary page: Under Sanders, income and jobs would soar, economist says

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:42 AM

Good morning all. Story of the day will once again be the polls are shown to be Doctor Wonky’s Liver and Jock Itch Miracle Pills and nobody will care. We’ll go about next week still believing they work as we scratch the itch with yellow fingers.

Limerick on February 9, 2016 at 6:49 AM

Trump or Cruz, Trump or Cruz, who the heck should I choose?

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 6:41 AM

I personally don’t to hear about who’s a bimbo and who’s a p**** for eight years, while President Trump reads American Law for Beginners and completes his So you want to be the President? correspondence course from the University of Phoenix — but, you know . . .

Vote your conscience.

And don’t skimp on souvenirs!

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

2nd that Axe :)

RA, you’ll know as soon as you get your ballot

cmsinaz on February 9, 2016 at 6:55 AM

Vote your conscience.

And don’t skimp on souvenirs!

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

I now just vote for the best looking First Lady.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 6:57 AM

Limerick on February 9, 2016 at 6:49 AM

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

my GOD, y’all are hilarious today!

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 6:58 AM

On the New Hampshire Primary Rules: Why a Vote for an Establishment Candidate Could Be a Vote for Trump in NH

“A lot of Republicans will head to the polls in New Hampshire on Tuesday, motivated to vote against Donald Trump.

“But because of a quirk in how the state party allocates delegates and how fractured the “establishment” field is, it could mean that an anti-Trump vote will actually be a vote for the New York billionaire.

“Here’s how:

“The state party awards delegates on a proportional basis to presidential candidates based on their vote statewide and by congressional district.

“But it also has a 10 percent threshold.

“What does that mean? It means that if a candidate does not get 10 percent of the vote, he gets no delegates. (And this is a hard threshold — no rounding.)

“What’s more, not only do those underperforming candidates get no delegates, but whatever delegates they could have gotten based on their vote share go to the winner of the primary (!).”

(more)

——————

bump

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:58 AM

She would have been perfect.

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 6:29 AM

The perfect chick?

The next one.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 6:59 AM

HL :)

cmsinaz on February 9, 2016 at 6:59 AM

Sh!t, showered, and shaved, all ready to exercise my franchise! Just 1 hour to go!

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 7:00 AM

I now just vote for the best looking First Lady.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 6:57 AM

That bit is not your conscience.

. . . something else entirely. Your parents should have talked to you about this, but it’s too late now.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:01 AM

The perfect chick?

The next one.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 6:59 AM

Crap, she’ll probably be on-thread in a few minutes *ducks*

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 7:01 AM

Your parents should have talked to you about this, but it’s too late now.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:01 AM

My parents were kinda warm and fuzzy, but I never quite understood all their barking, growling, and nose muzzling.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM

Kasich and Sanders will big with the 9 vote count from Dixville, NH.

Limerick on February 9, 2016 at 7:07 AM

Crap, she’ll probably be on-thread in a few minutes *ducks*

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 7:01 AM

Two truths for me.

You meet more chicks when married.

The more I ignored certain chicks, the more they liked me.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:07 AM

The more I ignored certain chicks, the more they liked me.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:07 AM

True.

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 7:09 AM

while President Trump reads American Law for Beginners and completes his So you want to be the President? correspondence course from the University of Phoenix — but, you know . . .

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

I’ll take a Wharton grad over another lawyer any day.

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:11 AM

Chicks ignore me, but I like ’em anyway.

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 7:11 AM

Kasich and Sanders will big with the 9 vote count from Dixville, NH.

Limerick on February 9, 2016 at 7:07 AM

Hey, Don’t forget that Trump won two votes to Kasich’s three.
Already Trump is out there talking about how Kasich’s campaign misled the voters and that he actually won the primary there.

Seriously, Dixville Notch is to politics what Gobbler’s Knob is to Groundhog Day. Meaningless tradition.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 7:13 AM

Chicks ignore me, but I like ’em anyway.

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 7:11 AM

Occasionally they don’t me, then they do so I lose in the end.

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 7:16 AM

I’ll take a Wharton grad over another lawyer any day.

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:11 AM

I believe you.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:18 AM

Seriously, Dixville Notch is to politics what Gobbler’s Knob is to Groundhog Day. Meaningless tradition.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 7:13 AM

Amen to that. I’d also include Iowa – meaningless tradition.

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:18 AM

And don’t skimp on souvenirs!

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

I now just vote for the best looking First Lady.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 6:57 AM

When my children played team sports, that was how the last couple of players on each team were chosen…who had the better looking mom.

esr1951 on February 9, 2016 at 7:20 AM

But it is Dixville, by God. Dixville! She is a tower of American industry and intellectual thought. The Kasich win is YYUGE!

Limerick on February 9, 2016 at 7:21 AM

When my children played team sports, that was how the last couple of players on each team were chosen…who had the better looking mom.

esr1951 on February 9, 2016 at 7:20 AM

There is hope for humanity after all!

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:22 AM

Do I want slick political skills and doublespeak, along with practiced, often deceptive “messaging”, and a president subservient to a dominant uniparty, dictating which laws will be respected and enforced?

Or do I want at least a chance at having the disrespectful, often hostile, non-assimilating, welfare collecting, largely uneducated, potentially criminal or even terrorist, Democrat voting, culturally destructive invading hordes, and subsequently their extended families, halted at the border?

In any case, none of the candidates have been president before, hence all will be learning on-the-job. However, a couple of the candidates do actually have executive experience and are accustomed to running sizable organizations, and are not simply one or two term legislators with no leadership experience other than managing their own political office.

Decisions, decisions. May the best candidate for the preservation and strengthening of America and its citizens prevail.

bobthm3 on February 9, 2016 at 7:24 AM

“I, (state name here, but everyone just repeats Stymie’s name), a member of good standing of the He-Man Woman-Haters Club, do solemnly swear to be a he-man and hate women and not play with them or touch them unless I have to and especially never fall in love and, if I do, may I die slowly and painfully and suffer for hours or until I scream bloody murder.”

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 7:24 AM

When my children played team sports, that was how the last couple of players on each team were chosen…who had the better looking mom.

esr1951 on February 9, 2016 at 7:20 AM

If they’d been smart, they’d have picked the better-cooking moms’ little sparks.

An army, no matter how small, travels on its stomach.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 7:25 AM

I’ll take a Wharton grad over another lawyer any day.

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:11 AM

I believe you.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:18 AM

I ain’t yapping about picking a POTUS.

If has been my business experience that successful companies are rarely run by lawyers, excluding law firms of course.

There is a reason for that.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:25 AM

Abe Simpson already got 9 votes. I guess this is over with. Why in this day in age why does anyone care who some small town in the middle of bumble f*** nowhere supports for President? Why does Dixville, HN carry so much baggage? Do people move there simply so they can have a good amount of influence on the nomination process?

Then again WTF is New Hampshire the first primary? Its not exactly a microcosm of America.

tom2789 on February 9, 2016 at 7:25 AM

If Kasich comes in a solid second or somehow manages to pull off an upset win, how many times does he talk about his father being a mail man in his speech? Too bad there wasn’t a site to bet on that.

tom2789 on February 9, 2016 at 7:28 AM

If they’d been smart, they’d have picked the better-cooking moms’ little sparks.

An army, no matter how small, travels on its stomach.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 7:25 AM

To extend that logic a bit further down my demented way of thinking. If times got really lean, it would be best to start off with a chunky wife.

Of course, a song by Fine Young Cannibals would be a requirement for a wedding song.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:28 AM

To whom it does concern.

Whom is my colleague SpongePuppy.

It’s my intention to meet you back here tonight for your happiness and accompanying victory dancing. I will be around, though mostly lurking because I can’t stand . . . some things, and I will try to share your happiness without being too p!ssy about it. I do this for friendship, and because I’m wise enough to realize that I should do it, but not smart enough to figure out how to avoid it.

Sincerely,

Fred

I mean Axe

PS: After three years of flaming cartwheels, I finally impressed Sophie. :) I know it’s a busy political day, so I’ll tell you about it later.

Axe

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:29 AM

Axe

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:29 AM

Herpes Friendship, the gift that keeps giving.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:31 AM

I ain’t yapping about picking a POTUS.

If has been my business experience that successful companies are rarely run by lawyers, excluding law firms of course.

There is a reason for that.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:25 AM

I believe you.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:31 AM

After Iowa, the polls scare me.

ArthurMachado on February 9, 2016 at 7:31 AM

In some boring meeting being lectured on how to maximize revenues in a every increasing world of digital content.

I raised my hand and told him the answer was Ronco—Slice and Dice baby.

Don’t think he understood my point. Back to commenting here while sober.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:34 AM

I believe you.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:31 AM

I know you knew that my comment was not intended to be rude or something, but I just wanted to make a public announcement just in case.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:36 AM

Don’t forget your ID RA

First primary where ID is required

cmsinaz on February 9, 2016 at 7:37 AM

I know you knew that my comment was not intended to be rude or something, but I just wanted to make a public announcement just in case.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:36 AM

\m/

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:41 AM

In any case, none of the candidates have been president before, hence all will be learning on-the-job.

bobthm3 on February 9, 2016 at 7:24 AM

What the hell are you talking about? Blue Clinton’s people pretty much claim that she was a co-president for eight years and has executive experience dating back to the time she left the womb. Cory Booker even says that she’ll be the best President since George Washington. And, of course, women who don’t vote for Blue are going to hell.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 7:42 AM

First primary where ID is required

cmsinaz on February 9, 2016 at 7:37 AM

Then it’s about time. I am sick of elections being stolen by the left through voter fraud.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 7:42 AM

Got it cms. I’m off to the polls, I’ll check in again from Dunkin Donuts afterwards.

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 7:43 AM

Then again WTF is New Hampshire the first primary? Its not exactly a microcosm of America.

tom2789 on February 9, 2016 at 7:25 AM

I’m not sure where the microcosm of America would be but having said that, NH has changed dramatically in the last 20 years. Now there’s a Dem governor, a Dem Senator, and a Dem House member. Guinta and Ayotte are the only Republicans in the Congressional delegation. It’s not as bad as Massachusetts but now it’s a definitely a purple state. The Union Leader sure ain’t what it used to be either.

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:44 AM

I’m not sure where the microcosm of America would be

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:44 AM

Mexico dummy.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:47 AM

Agree HN

cmsinaz on February 9, 2016 at 7:52 AM

Wait a minute, NH primary is today. Fat Tuesday is also today. Meaning? Chris Christie wins NH primary.

Zaggs on February 9, 2016 at 7:55 AM

Wait a minute, NH primary is today. Fat Tuesday is also today. Meaning? Chris Christie wins NH primary.

Zaggs on February 9, 2016 at 7:55 AM

A baby in a doughnut?

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:58 AM

A baby in a doughnut?

HonestLib

Depends on how much sleep he got. He might eat each separately.

Zaggs on February 9, 2016 at 8:00 AM

I’m not sure where the microcosm of America would be

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:44 AM

IMO, Ohio would probably be a good candidate.

Swing state
Close enough to coal country.
Agricultural areas
Big city problems in Cleveland
Significant number of illegals
Etc.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 8:01 AM

Wait a minute, NH primary is today. Fat Tuesday is also today. Meaning? Chris Christie wins NH primary.

Zaggs on February 9, 2016 at 7:55 AM

It’s also the lunar new year- year of the monkey. Which bodes well for the King Howler Monkey.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 8:02 AM

Two truths for me.

You meet more chicks when married.

The more I ignored certain chicks, the more they liked me.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:07 AM

Agree mostly. Especially if you’re married to a very attractive woman. Once dated a tall skinny girl who wasn’t really my type, but other women perceived her to be very attractive. I never got so much unsolicited attention from women. They’re more competitive than they let on.

And the ones who like you more when you ignore them tend to be trouble IMO. Once you do pay attention, they get difficult. I don’t really like the games, but it took a while to figure it out.

forest on February 9, 2016 at 8:08 AM

I personally don’t to hear about who’s a bimbo and who’s a p**** for eight years, while President Trump reads American Law for Beginners and completes his So you want to be the President? correspondence course from the University of Phoenix — but, you know . . .

Vote your conscience.

And don’t skimp on souvenirs!

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

Where in the Constitution does it say that only lawyers can serve in government? Good grief.

fossten on February 9, 2016 at 8:09 AM

To extend that logic a bit further down my demented way of thinking. If times got really lean, it would be best to start off with a chunky hot, mildly anorexic, wealthy gourmet cook for a wife.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:28 AM

Aim high.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:10 AM

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:44 AM

Yep.
Live free or die.
Who would have thought they would choose ‘die’.

justltl on February 9, 2016 at 8:12 AM

Aim high.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:10 AM

Sigh, I was saddled with a Shetland pony as my steed.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 8:15 AM

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:58 AM

It looks like the RNC’s penchant for stacking the deck is going to come back to bite them in the posterior. The problem with that, of course, is that the rest of us get snakebit in the process.

The games people play …

~~~ sigh ~~~

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:19 AM

Happy Paczki Day! Off to get the rugrat…

Fallon on February 9, 2016 at 8:21 AM

Sigh, I was saddled with a Shetland pony as my steed.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 8:15 AM

Dude.

The saddle goes on the critter. You must be hunchbacked by now.

I don’t even want to think about the poor pony …

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:24 AM

Happy Paczki Day! Off to get the rugrat…

Fallon on February 9, 2016 at 8:21 AM

Grad a pancake while you are out. Happy Shrove Tuesday.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 8:24 AM

I personally don’t to hear about who’s a bimbo and who’s a p**** for eight years, while President Trump reads American Law for Beginners and completes his So you want to be the President? correspondence course from the University of Phoenix — but, you know . . .

Vote your conscience.

And don’t skimp on souvenirs!

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:53 AM

Trump would never rely on a loser university, he would create his own university, Trump University, and it would be the most luxurious and classy university ever. A sure winner that will totally not go bankrupt.

BKennedy on February 9, 2016 at 8:24 AM

Where in the Constitution does it say that only lawyers can serve in government? Good grief.

fossten on February 9, 2016 at 8:09 AM

Why are you asking me that? Who said only lawyers could serve in government?

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 8:28 AM

I was number 6 in line when polls opened. Turnout was heavy, 22 in line by time voting began.

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 8:29 AM

It looks like the RNC’s penchant for stacking the deck is going to come back to bite them in the posterior. The problem with that, of course, is that the rest of us get snakebit in the process.

The games people play …

~~~ sigh ~~~

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:19 AM

Yah.

None of this matters, anyway. Hillary can move metal with her mind.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 8:30 AM

I was number 6 in line when polls opened. Turnout was heavy, 22 in line by time voting began.

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 8:29 AM

Bernie Sanders’ voters are energized.

Happy Nomad on February 9, 2016 at 8:32 AM

A sure winner that will totally not go bankrupt.

BKennedy on February 9, 2016 at 8:24 AM

K, laughed out loud at that. :)

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 8:32 AM

Where in the Constitution does it say that only lawyers can serve in government? Good grief.

fossten on February 9, 2016 at 8:09 AM

That would be in the little-known Only Lawyers Can Serve In Government Clause. It was written by a smart-ass janitor lurking in the National Archives Museum.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:33 AM

Bernie Sanders’ voters are energized.

Happy Nomad

Are you sure they were talking about the line into the voting precinct and not into the Krispy Kreme?

Zaggs on February 9, 2016 at 8:37 AM

Hillary can move metal with her mind.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 8:30 AM

If only Lynch would do her duty, Her Inevitableness could get in some real practice.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 8:37 AM

Thanks RA :)

cmsinaz on February 9, 2016 at 8:39 AM

I was number 6 in line when polls opened. Turnout was heavy, 22 in line by time voting began.

Racistanyway on February 9, 2016 at 8:29 AM

Chocolate, please.

One for Soph.

. . . three for Soph.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 8:41 AM

Trump would never rely on a loser university, he would create his own university, Trump University, and it would be the most luxurious and classy university ever. A sure winner that will totally not go bankrupt.

BKennedy on February 9, 2016 at 8:24 AM

From a personal business viewpoint only.

Entrepreneurs are risk takers and do fail. Part of the experience. I could give you a long list of successful business folks who were failures at some point in their careers.

I have been lucky and not gone the bankrupt route, but have lost considerable sums of my money on new ideas and products. Bigger the risks, greater the rewards. My wins outnumber the losses and you learn to take the good with the bad.

Plenty of reasons to knock Trump, and I do mean many. Business failures would not be one considering he has been successful in total.

Crony capitalism? Sadly the way of life in big business.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 8:50 AM

Plenty of reasons to knock Trump, and I do mean many. Business failures would not be one considering he has been successful in total.

Crony capitalism? Sadly the way of life in big business.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 8:50 AM

I don’t even agree anymore that he’s been successful in total.

. . . anyone thinking of voting for Trump should go find out who and what he is first. And if you have friends supporting him for their own reasons even after you find out who and what he is, you can join me at the bite-your-tongue table or continuous prayer meetings.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 9:06 AM

I don’t even agree anymore that he’s been successful in total.

. . . anyone thinking of voting for Trump should go find out who and what he is first. And if you have friends supporting him for their own reasons even after you find out who and what he is, you can join me at the bite-your-tongue table or continuous prayer meetings.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 9:06 AM

Success as in business. I have seen folks yap about he would be more successful if he would have taken his inheritance and put it in the stock market and that seems true on the surface, granted he invested wisely.

What one forgets is that not only has he created wealth personally for himself, his business dealings have helped others down the supply chain create wealth. That also has to be taken into account. Wealth creation is exponential.

People can vote for whoever they want for whatever reason. Could be a simple as colour of their skin or gender or funny hair.

As I always have a need to point out, due to how contentious this issue is for some (not you)….I ain’t a supporter of Mr. Trump. He just goes not bother me anymore then the rest do.

It is interesting to see that some conservatives see the need to have their own populist President. Trump may not be the right populist, but the time might be right for conservatives to see the usefulness of having the right populist. Culture dictates politics, not the other way around. That was a hard lesson for me to learn.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 9:22 AM

Back to hawt chicks, beer, and getting chicks pregnant. Priorities are back in line.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 9:23 AM

From a personal business viewpoint only.

Entrepreneurs are risk takers and do fail. Part of the experience. I could give you a long list of successful business folks who were failures at some point in their careers.

I have been lucky and not gone the bankrupt route, but have lost considerable sums of my money on new ideas and products. Bigger the risks, greater the rewards. My wins outnumber the losses and you learn to take the good with the bad.

Plenty of reasons to knock Trump, and I do mean many. Business failures would not be one considering he has been successful in total.

Crony capitalism? Sadly the way of life in big business.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 8:50 AM

Half my family including my parents are or have been small business owners, so I know full well the risks and that not everything ends up as a success.

However, the opportunity presented itself to get a good crack in at Trump University, so I took it. :)

BKennedy on February 9, 2016 at 9:46 AM

PS: After three years of flaming cartwheels, I finally impressed Sophie. :) I know it’s a busy political day, so I’ll tell you about it later.

Axe

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:29 AM

That’s very impressive! She’s very impressive.

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 10:44 AM

However, the opportunity presented itself to get a good crack in at Trump University, so I took it. :)

BKennedy on February 9, 2016 at 9:46 AM

LaLaLaLaLaLaLa….I can’t her you. I am only yapping about guitars, hawt chicks, and beer. I dropped the pregnant thing as that was sexist and I can’t afford the child support payments anyway inappropriate.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 10:55 AM

Evidently it is.

Try looking it up in any dictionary.

Merriam-Webster

a weak or cowardly man or boy : wimp, sissy

huckleberryfriend on February 9, 2016 at 10:44 AM

I personally want them all exposed.

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:23 AM

bump

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:58 AM

So, a vote for Trump will be a vote for Trump, and a vote for any of the others will still be a vote for Trump?

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:25 AM

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:39 AM

Opposites of that word.

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:31 AM

This year is the NH 100th first primary in the nation.

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:33 AM

So, a vote for Trump will be a vote for Trump, and a vote for any of the others will still be a vote for Trump?

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:25 AM

In effect, yes — if they fall below the 10% vote threshold. RNC did it to themselves.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 12:02 PM

I phrased it as this: “once the jets are ignited it’s going down the runway” and “if the flaps don’t work it’s going BOOM! at the end”,

Jet Pilot friend agrees. Looks like it’s going BOOM! at the end.

Who is John Galt on February 9, 2016 at 4:41 AM

WHEN the jets are ignited.
I hope we can put that day off for awhile longer, but we see an awful lot of planes heading for the runways.

AesopFan on February 9, 2016 at 3:07 PM

I’m not sure where the microcosm of America would be

rhombus on February 9, 2016 at 7:44 AM

Mexico dummy.

HonestLib on February 9, 2016 at 7:47 AM

Ba-da-bing!

AesopFan on February 9, 2016 at 3:10 PM

“What does that mean? It means that if a candidate does not get 10 percent of the vote, he gets no delegates. (And this is a hard threshold — no rounding.)

“What’s more, not only do those underperforming candidates get no delegates, but whatever delegates they could have gotten based on their vote share go to the winner of the primary (!).”

(more)

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 6:28 AM

So, a vote for Trump will be a vote for Trump, and a vote for any of the others will still be a vote for Trump?

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:25 AM

In effect, yes — if they fall below the 10% vote threshold. RNC did it to themselves.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 12:02 PM

Oh, what a tangled web we weave … anytime you make things more complex than they need to be, particularly in order to manipulate outcomes, you open the door for Karma to attack.

AesopFan on February 9, 2016 at 3:13 PM

Decisions, decisions. May the best candidate for the preservation and strengthening of America and its citizens prevail.

bobthm3 on February 9, 2016 at 7:24 AM

Amen.
I’m okay with preserving and strengthening good people around the world, but as they say in the airplane spiel: in the event of a sudden loss of cabin pressure, you have to fasten your own oxygen mask firmly before you help someone else fix theirs.

AesopFan on February 9, 2016 at 3:17 PM

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3438483/The-former-ISIS-sex-slaves-waging-war-abusers-Hundreds-Yazidi-women-form-female-battalion-called-Sun-Ladies-launch-massive-assault-Mosul.html
The former ISIS sex slaves waging war on their abusers: Hundreds of Yazidi women form an all-female battalion called the ‘Sun Ladies’ to launch massive assault on Mosul

^ Check that out.

Axe on February 9, 2016 at 7:39 AM

THESE people are who the EU and our own government tried to pretend they wanted to help with their refugee open-arms programs, but they are actually planning to get back into the fight!

Makes a good argument for training women in combat arms, even if you don’t want to draft them or put them in the trenches on a regular basis.

AesopFan on February 9, 2016 at 3:21 PM

I’m honestly torn on this.

We want someone who fights, correct?

And we now have someone who has generally (except immigration) conservative values and we’re all apoplectic over it?

Well … what do we want? Someone who engages the DNC and GOPe on their own field? Or plays by Queen of Marquesbury rules?

smokeyblonde on February 9, 2016 at 1:31 AM

I don’t mind when they do it to each other on the Senate/House floor. What I will not do is tolerate these tactics he’s doing with the voters. It’s dishonest, sleazy, and dirty. And his actions have hurt him.

..

NWConservative on February 9, 2016 at 1:55 AM

So you approve of someone using “dirty tricks” so long as you approve of the target, but not otherwise?

I’m not sure you can turn that sort of thing on and off at will.

Kind of like trying to pick up just one end of the stick.

AesopFan on February 9, 2016 at 3:23 PM

So, a vote for Trump will be a vote for Trump, and a vote for any of the others will still be a vote for Trump?

Schadenfreude on February 9, 2016 at 11:25 AM

In effect, yes — if they fall below the 10% vote threshold. RNC did it to themselves.

hillbillyjim on February 9, 2016 at 12:02 PM

You have to wonder why they bother. People are not watching to see how many delegates are earned. They’re watching to see the relative strength of the candidates in a different state.

In Iowa, for example, I believe Cruz got exactly one more delegate than Rubio and Trump. But the big news was that Cruz won, that Trump didn’t win, and that Rubio had a last minute surge. And that was huge news because polling suggested Trump had a comfortable lead, and Rubio was way back. Just the fact that Rubio gained in the last few days made all kinds of news based on the possibility that the trend might continue. If he doesn’t do similarly well in New Hampshire, then that whole surging story dies.

If Trump doesn’t do well in New Hampshire, where he’s expected to win, it’s huge news. If Cruz does well when he’s not expected to, it’s big news, if not huge. If one of the Iowa also-rans does well, then it either puts them on the map or turns out to be a fluke.

The delegate count is not the big news from tonight.

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 9, 2016 at 4:33 PM

smokeyblonde on February 9, 2016 at 10:19 PM
You need to get out more. Before you become addicted to politics. That happened to hagfish. It was not pretty.

cozmo on February 9, 2016 at 10:21 PM

……don’t listen to him!…..he can’t tell you what you “need”……I, however, can…..you need to hop on a plane (of COURSE I’m paying for The Ticket!)….and make your way to My house – where we can obsess on Politics or Whatever we want through 5 TV Screens and 4 Laptops…..

….oh…..and we can Play with your Dog…..

williamg on February 9, 2016 at 10:25 PM

…Jeez!….ya offer to fly a girl to one of the coldest and most miserable places on the Eastern Seaboard……..and Her DOG…..just to have him around for her to Play with…..and you get NUTHIN’!!…….Women just expect too much these days…..and the ones around here are as big as The Broncos Defensive Line…….

williamg on February 9, 2016 at 10:48 PM

Holy crap! A few hours on the phone with Bestie and Ex and I have no bloody idea what any of this means!

All I know is Trump and Sanders won and may the Establishment on both sides kiss my lily white patootie!

smokeyblonde on February 9, 2016 at 11:01 PM

Comment pages: 1 3 4 5