Boston Globe poll of New Hampshire: Trump 29, Rubio 19, Kasich 13, Bush 10

posted at 1:21 pm on February 5, 2016 by Allahpundit

This morning I tweeted that, for all the hype about Marcomentum, no poll of New Hampshire has showed him within single digits of Trump yet. The closest was last night’s dubious CNN poll, which had Rubio within 11 but also had a margin of error of nearly seven(!) percent.

Enter the Boston Globe/Suffolk survey, which has Rubio within 10 via a respectable sample of 500 likely Republican voters. That makes three polls in a row where he’s at 17-19 percent and has second place to himself. Seems safe to say at this point that the Rubio surge is real, with a potentially gamechanging debate less than 36 hours away.

New York businessman Donald Trump has a nearly 10 point lead over the field — but the gap between him and the rest of the field has shrunk since his disappointing second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. Trump received 29 percent in the survey, while US Senator Marco Rubio of Florida took second place with 19 percent.

Ohio Governor John Kasich placed third in Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll with 13 percent, former Florida governor Jeb Bush had 10 percent , US Senator Ted Cruz had 7 percent, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie fell to 5 percent, and Ben Carson had 4 percent.

“What a difference a caucus makes,” said David Paleologos, the director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University. “By exceeding expectations in Iowa, Marco Rubio is converting likability to electability even more so than Ted Cruz, who, like many conservative Iowa winners of the past like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, can’t seem to convert an Iowa win into a major showing in New Hampshire.”

Fully a third of likely voters say they might change their minds, so the race could go anywhere by Tuesday. Also worth noting: For all the abuse thrown at the CNN poll last night, the data there lines up (with one important exception) with the two newest polls of New Hampshire today. CNN had Trump at 29, Rubio at 18, Kasich at 12, and Bush at 10. The Globe is within a point of those numbers for each of them and WSJ/NBC is within two points for Trump, Rubio, and Bush:

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All three polls are within a point of each other on Chris Christie’s support too: Two of them have him at four percent and one has him at five, which puts him a fairly distant fourth among the four-man race on the center-right. I wonder, seeing these numbers now, if he wishes he had a do-over on his “destroy Rubio” strategy this week. Even if he hasn’t driven his own numbers down by going sharply negative, he’s got no realistic chance to win and he’s alienating the guy from his lane of the party who’s most likely to be in a position next year to give him a federal job. Oh well. As for the big discrepancy between the polls, that has to do with Cruz: CNN had him at 13 percent, WSJ/NBC had him at 15 percent, and the Globe has him at … seven. I’m going to assume that’s an outlier, unless Trump’s accusations of cheating in Iowa have gained so much surprising traction within the past 24 hours that they’ve ruined Cruz in New Hampshire. If he pulls another weirdly low number in another poll this weekend, Team Cruz will have a real damage control problem. And Trump, who’s now taken to hugging Cruz again, may go right back to screeching about fraud.

One more bit of data for you, this time for a new YouGov poll. That’s an … interesting trend on the right:

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A 30-point decline for Trump in less than a week. He’ll claw some of that back and be the favorite again if he wins on Tuesday (although maybe only a slight favorite if Rubio finishes a strong second), but the days of Trump seeming invincible to a majority of the party are gone. If you subscribe to the “Wizard of Oz” theory of Trump’s success, that his mystique will fade once voters realize he’s not all-powerful, there’s your best evidence yet that he’s already on his way to also-ran status.

One ominous note in closing for Rubio fans: You’re still not seeing Kasich’s or Bush’s supporters peeling off today. Rubio doesn’t need to climb in a poll for that poll to bring good news; a survey that showed Bush or Kasich fans shifting to “undecided” would be a big deal for him, since he’s the likeliest beneficiary of their last-second doubts. Both candidates have been steady this week, though, meaning that Rubio may have to pick off Trump supporters (or Cruz supporters) if he’s going to win in an upset. That’s harder to do than consolidating the center-right vote, at least in theory. Exit question via Noah Rothman: If you believe CNN, Romney’s holding off on endorsing Rubio because he hasn’t seen any data suggesting that Rubio stands a real shot of winning New Hampshire. Being within 10 points of Trump and trending upward when there are still 33 percent willing to change their minds seems like a real shot, no? Plus, what would reliable data look like in this case? New Hampshire polling is often garbage. If Rubio’s within 10 here, he may well already be tied with Trump in reality. Take a chance.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Cruz in 5th place, down five points from their last poll (Suffolk).

Nice job in Iowa Cruz, looks like you shot yourself in the head.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:30 PM

Maybe Trump doesn’t see any more threat from Cruz……

It’s Rubios to lose at this point (sadly).

And I am NOT a Marco fan.

PappyD61 on February 5, 2016 at 3:31 PM

For everyone who wants to stop Marco Rubio, vote Trump in New Hampshire.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:31 PM

Rubio is a career politician. He is the safe bet.

weedisgood on February 5, 2016 at 3:17 PM

Yes, everyone knows that Salem wants Rubio

TheMadHessian on February 5, 2016 at 3:34 PM

If Rubio had gotten his way in 2013, 12 Million Mexican nationals would be voting Democrat this fall. Never. Forget.

Jumpintimmy on February 5, 2016 at 3:38 PM

So the top four polled in New Hampshire are/were for amnesty?

b1jetmech on February 5, 2016 at 3:38 PM

FWIW, New Hampshire is Massachusetts North these days.

fitzsweetpea on February 5, 2016 at 3:41 PM

Ooops..Meant that top four other then Cruz were/are for amnesty.

b1jetmech on February 5, 2016 at 3:43 PM

This is why no matter how much they push I don’t think that he can get the nomination, he just is not acceptable to the GOP voters.

Redstone on February 5, 2016 at 1:42 PM

Patently absurd. Rubio is the heir to Reagan’s coalition, and then some.

The RATS and MSM are terrified of him.

The RATS want to run against Trump or Bush, both of whom are sure loers in the general. Rubio or Cruz, not so much.

The broader point is that the GOP nomination this year is worth a great deal, b/c no one will unify the Republicans behind any nominee more than Hillary Clinton. The question is whether Trump or Bush can win indies, and I don’t believe either can, for obviously different reasons.

matthew8787 on February 5, 2016 at 3:45 PM

Gotta pander, baby! Start drinking tubfuls of maple syrup and saying, “That’s wicked smaht.”

fossten. Feb 05, 2016 at 3:13 pm

No, just don’t come off like Jimmy Swaggart. No matter how devout, most New Englanders aren’t publicly showy about their religion.

cam2 on February 5, 2016 at 3:50 PM

Patently absurd. Rubio is the heir to Reagan’s coalition, and then some.

The RATS and MSM are terrified of him.

The RATS want to run against Trump or Bush, both of whom are sure loers in the general. Rubio or Cruz, not so much.

The broader point is that the GOP nomination this year is worth a great deal, b/c no one will unify the Republicans behind any nominee more than Hillary Clinton. The question is whether Trump or Bush can win indies, and I don’t believe either can, for obviously different reasons.

matthew8787 on February 5, 2016 at 3:45 PM

Romney was a stronger candidate than Rubio and he couldn’t unite the party against Obama, who was more disliked than Hillary is now.

Rubio has superficial appeal but zero substance.

If he hadn’t gotten involved with the Gang if 8 it would be different, but since he did, he will be forced on the voters kicking and screaming.

Redstone on February 5, 2016 at 3:51 PM

Has any one figured out what state Rubio has a chance in hell of finally winning in the foreseeable future.?

Second and third place victory speeches only go so far.

coca on February 5, 2016 at 4:12 PM

Romney was a stronger candidate than Rubio and he couldn’t unite the party against Obama, who was more disliked than Hillary is now.

Rubio has superficial appeal but zero substance.

Redstone on February 5, 2016 at 3:51 PM

Agreed, Rubio is not as formidable as Romney, at least during the nomination process.

I’m pretty upbeat about Trump’s situation. He’s ahead in the national polls, and strong with every ideological group. He has that core group of supporters, which gives him plenty of delegates in every proportionate state, even if there are temporary bad debates or other setbacks. He should be able to win this thing, starting with NH.

cimbri on February 5, 2016 at 4:21 PM

Has any one figured out what state Rubio has a chance in hell of finally winning in the foreseeable future.?

Second and third place victory speeches only go so far.

coca on February 5, 2016 at 4:12 PM

Rubio has the 3-2-4-3-2-3-4-5-WIN strategy.

duh

Skipity on February 5, 2016 at 4:24 PM

Rubio has the 3-2-4-3-2-3-4-5-WIN strategy.

duh

Skipity on February 5, 2016 at 4:24 PM

LOL. That is funny. :)

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 4:33 PM

If so many conservatives stayed home and didn’t vote for Romney last time around because he wasn’t “pure” enough,

And now that the amnesty issue is at the fore of conservative thought, which it was NOT the last time around,

Wouldn’t there be even MORE staying home if Rubio were nominated?

After all, he is such an evil, anti-American b–turd, the most dangerous candidate out there for this country’s future, that this scenario would seem to follow.

memyselfni on February 5, 2016 at 5:00 PM

Rubio will win New Hampshire. And he could quite likely be the nominee

Mercyneal on February 5, 2016 at 5:23 PM

I heard that Cruz is dropping out of the race! Everyone vote for Rubio!

MCGIRV on February 5, 2016 at 8:07 PM

( ) Trump
( ) Rubio
(X) Cruz
( ) Carson
( ) Paul
( ) Bush
( ) Christie
( ) Kasich
( ) Fiorina

Dollayo on February 6, 2016 at 1:49 AM

If so many conservatives stayed home and didn’t vote for Romney last time around because he wasn’t “pure” enough,

And now that the amnesty issue is at the fore of conservative thought, which it was NOT the last time around,

Wouldn’t there be even MORE staying home if Rubio were nominated?

After all, he is such an evil, anti-American b–turd, the most dangerous candidate out there for this country’s future, that this scenario would seem to follow.

memyselfni on February 5, 2016 at 5:00 PM

No that was a myth.

You all really don’t have the power you think you do.

That is why you can say that all you want, we don’t care. We aren’t letting you hold the country for ransom anymore.

Because you are all nutcases anyway.

There is no such thing as an establishment conspiracy to deprive you of power, just people voting for who they like and you are such loons you like the wrong people.

Ted Cruz, come on. He is the most unlikable person any of us have ever dealt with. Plus, he is a crook. He showed his colors plain enough, and that really brought into focus that you are all just a bunch of looney tunes, and we really shouldn’t be letting you run anything.

Why don’t you all write Ron Paul… it makes as much sense as Ted Cruz.

petunia on February 6, 2016 at 3:38 AM

Rubio will win New Hampshire. And he could quite likely be the nominee

Mercyneal on February 5, 2016 at 5:23 PM

Now that would be great!

But that is asking quite a lot. The strategy is to stay in the top 3… 321 if possible until the states in April, they are more winner take all, and they are Rubio territory. These first ones favor the nutcases.

petunia on February 6, 2016 at 3:41 AM

@petunia on February 6, 2016 at 3:38 AM

Oh, Petunia, no it wasn’t a myth. And you could be a little less snarky with your inaccurate comments. Especially since you find it necessary to call people who don’t agree with you “loons”. It’s all you’ve got, and it isn’t much.

memyselfni on February 6, 2016 at 9:03 AM

no, no, no to the pro-amnesty anti-American robotic runt puppy rubio

runt – an undersized weak person

TRUMP 2016

America needs an Alpha Dog in the White House to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ALPHA DOGS 4EVER

Pragmatic on February 7, 2016 at 1:14 PM

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