For what it’s worth: Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13 in new CNN poll of New Hampshire

posted at 10:41 pm on February 4, 2016 by Allahpundit

During election season, a new poll beats a “Quotes of the Day” in the overnight slot anytime — even if that poll is essentially garbage, which this one is. CNN’s pollster started the survey last Friday, three days before Iowa, and kept polling right on through until yesterday. Result: Two separate mini-polls divided in time by the results on Monday night. That would be helpful if they had large samples before and after the caucus so that we could reliably track which candidates improved and which declined due to the results. But they don’t. Their sample of Republicans post-Iowa is just 209 people, producing a margin of error of … 6.8 percent. As Steve Deace noted, that means Ted Cruz at 13 percent here could actually be anywhere from second place at 19-20 percent, slightly ahead of Rubio, to seventh place at 6-7 percent, behind Jeb Bush. That’s useful information, no?

But hey. The media’s all about “momentum” narratives this week and CNN’s data does show major momentum for Rubio, so that’s worth a pixel or two for your consideration.

Behind Trump’s field-leading 29% support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio climbs to second place with 18% following his strong third place finish in Iowa, followed by Ted Cruz (13%) and John Kasich (12%) in a near-tie for third. Jeb Bush holds fifth place at 10%, a hair behind Cruz and Kasich, with Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina well behind at 4% each. The fight for second place between Cruz, Rubio and Kasich remains within the survey’s margin of sampling error…

In the new poll, the share who say they expect Trump to win the primary on February 9 has declined a bit since before the Iowa caucuses, dropping from 66% in the pre-caucus survey to 61% now, though he’s still the odds-on favorite among likely voters in New Hampshire. 11% think Cruz will carry the state, 9% Rubio, with the rest of the field at 1% or less.

Trump has also been ruled out by more likely voters than any other Republican in the field, 37% say they would never vote for him. Cruz is second on this score, with 13% saying they would never vote for him, followed by Bush at 7%.

In the four days before Iowa voted, Rubio was plodding along at 11 percent. Since then he’s up seven points, the only candidate in the field to show a gain that’s (slightly) outside the margin of error. During the same period, Christie dropped from nine percent in New Hampshire to four percent, suggesting a total collapse. Which is not implausible: He’s been at five or six percent in various polls of New Hampshire lately, and it may be that his poor showing in Iowa combined with his aggressive shots at Rubio this week have turned off some voters. As I say, that’s something to look for in the next round of polls. Likewise, while Trump has always led big in the dubious “would never vote for” category, CNN has him climbing six points there between the period immediately before Iowa and the rest of this week. That’s a bad trend, even if his overall level of support — 29 percent — was steady.

All great news for Rubio so far. What’s not so great is Trump still being favored by 60+ percent of voters to win. A lot of ink has been spilled the past three days over the theory that Trump’s strong polls are essentially a mirage and the numbers won’t be there for him when people go to vote, as was true in Iowa. New Hampshirites aren’t buying it yet. Meanwhile, check out how (relatively) strong Rubio’s center-right competition is. Bush and Kasich are both polling double digits even after Iowa. This week is supposed to see their supporters peel away and crown Rubio as the one true establishmentarian knight who’s going to slay the Trump and Cruz dragons, but if you believe CNN’s data, Bush and Kasich actually gained slightly after Iowa. (At a minimum, Rubio wants/needs a disastrous Bush finish in New Hampshire so that Team Jeb will be less inclined to go on to South Carolina and continue bombing him with ads.) Rubio has presumably picked up a bunch of Christie’s defecting fans but there’s not much meat left on the bone among Christie, Fiorina, and Carson given their low levels of support. Cruz, as the Iowa winner, is probably also near his floor at 13 percent. If Rubio’s going to surge further, it has to come from Bush and Kasich or from Trump fans peeling off at the last second. And Rubio isn’t an obvious destination for populist border hawks who no longer believe in Trump for whatever reason.

One more point, this from Steve Kornacki: Independents in New Hampshire are free to vote in either party’s election. Normally, in a year where both parties’ primaries are competitive, you’d expect indies to split roughly half and half between the two. This year, though, thanks to his (near) home-field advantage, Bernie Sanders is crushing Hillary in the polls. Some small but potentially important cluster of independents may conclude that the Democratic result is a fait accompli and will choose to vote in the GOP’s election instead. That’s good news for Trump, who’s an independent in all but name. FiveThirtyEight currently gives him a 62 percent chance of winning on Tuesday. I think they’re lowballing him.


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Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

But hey. The media’s all about “momentum” narratives this week and CNN’s data does show major momentum for Rubio, so that’s worth a pixel or two for your consideration.

Hey AP, your candidate, rub-me-oooohhhhh is not worth a pixel or two. He’s not worth the ink or graphite it would take to write him a short note that said “you’re fired”.

But, I wont keep raggin on him, I know it upsets you so.

Andy__B on February 5, 2016 at 1:48 AM

ExpressoBold

There will be wars and rumors of wars.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 1:48 AM

What appears to be an Islamic State battle flag has been painted on the wall of a school along with the words’ Pray to Allah or Die’, reports Sweden’s state radio.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 1:49 AM

Having lost their fangs and their claws, the Swedes are now prey.

VorDaj on February 5, 2016 at 1:52 AM

No, sir. Men are from Mars & Women are from Venice.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 1:43 AM

so what color is the women folk?

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 1:53 AM

Good Day Sunshine…..

williamg on February 5, 2016 at 1:55 AM

so what color is the women folk?

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 1:53 AM

Who cares?

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 1:55 AM

Who cares?

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 1:55 AM

me

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 1:57 AM

me

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 1:57 AM

As long as they be womenfolk, lol!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 2:00 AM

Having lost their fangs and their claws, the Swedes are now prey.

VorDaj on February 5, 2016 at 1:52 AM

.
You are right – Swedish citizen, murdered by islamic terrorist invaders has no public memorial for fear of islamic terrorist invaders.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:01 AM

The Damned – “Grimly Fiendish”

Anti-ControI on February 5, 2016 at 2:03 AM

As long as they be womenfolk, lol!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 2:00 AM

:)

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 2:04 AM

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 1:53 AM

Venice? They are all tan, from what I remember.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:07 AM

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:01 AM

My niece just got the heck outta Sweden. When I learned she was studying abroad there, I said what is your problem–don’t you read the news?! Get out ASAP and head home. Another niece in Paris. SMH.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:12 AM

Steyn on the TWO Cruz dirty tricks.

http://www.steynonline.com/7445/that-smell-isnt-the-ethanol

fred5678 on February 5, 2016 at 2:14 AM

Greta roughed up Cruz tonite.

cimbri on February 5, 2016 at 1:28 AM

Link?

I saw that he scrubbed information from his twitter. LOL.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 1:27 AM

Yeah, he sent Tweets saying it was Trump who was responsible for the Carson story. They were trying to set him up as responsible for it. Really, really just over the top.

Paperclips on February 5, 2016 at 1:33 AM

Like most of the true believers I’ve seen, just grasping at straws.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 2:17 AM

Get out ASAP and head home. Another niece in Paris. SMH.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:12 AM

.
Yeah… I remember Paris, before all the looting, rampaging, and vandalism unencumbered by police interference from les gendarmes.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:17 AM

Still Report #569 – Cruz Using Hi-Tech Dirty Tricksters
.
Uh oh, Ted… the information is bigger than a molehill.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 1:02 AM

They tried to blame the Rubio campaign as well.

Cruz always gave off a bad vibe. Something just didn’t add up with him. Now we know why. He is a budding Clinton.

Have you run this by someone who can help publicize it? If Trump keeps complaining he looks bad, the Iowa Secretary of State should do something.

petunia on February 5, 2016 at 2:17 AM

Have you run this by someone who can help publicize it? If Trump keeps complaining he looks bad, the Iowa Secretary of State should do something.

petunia on February 5, 2016 at 2:17 AM

.
This is Bill Still Reporting from D.C., not mine. He is well publicized and his details food for thought by many folks.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:20 AM

I’m still sticking with my pet theory that Rubio is an establishment stalking horse candidate for Jeb. I joke about Bush suspending Marco’s campaign, but they are both Latino and both from Florida and both establishment candidates. Of course the GOP hedged its bets, knowing the field this year was too big to take a chance.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:23 AM

Steyn on the TWO Cruz dirty tricks.

http://www.steynonline.com/7445/that-smell-isnt-the-ethanol

fred5678 on February 5, 2016 at 2:14 AM

Thanks.

Steyn on his Dirty Politics (with his original bolding):

Senator Cruz in his initial explanation about this said we were sending it to our team, leaving the implication, I suspect, to most viewers, that this had to do with sending it out to staff members. No, no, no… They sent this to their nearly 1,500 precinct captains. There are 1,500 precincts in the state. And they sent this message from Spence Roberts (Rogers). Now why does that matter. Now the gap between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is 6,239 votes. There are 1,500 precincts. Do the math… If that message cost Carson four votes per precinct to switch to Cruz, then Cruz beats Trump. If he doesn’t switch four, then he loses.

By the way, all the Cruz shenanigans occurred after CNN had clarified their original report:

Carson won’t go to NH/SC, but instead will head home to Florida for some R&R. He’ll be in DC Thursday for the National Prayer Breakfast.

At 6.43pm CNN reporter Chris Moody added:

Ben Carson’s campaign tells me he plans to stay in the race beyond Iowa no matter what the results are tonight.

Which seems plain enough. Nonetheless, the most senior Cruz operatives spent the next two hours embellishing the original rumor by inventing two critical elements – that Carson would be “making a big announcement” and then (lest that were insufficiently clear) that he was “suspending campaigning”.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 2:24 AM

I’m still sticking with my pet theory that Rubio is an establishment stalking horse candidate for Jeb. I joke about Bush suspending Marco’s campaign, but they are both Latino and both from Florida and both establishment candidates. Of course the GOP hedged its bets, knowing the field this year was too big to take a chance.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:23 AM

Heh heh heh.

Jeb Bush is a WHITE dude pretending to be a Latino.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 2:26 AM

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:23 AM

.
Bush isn’t Latino… he just wishes he was, guilt-ridden white man that he is.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:27 AM

I’ll Take Sweden trailer 1965

Frankie Avalon – “I’ll Take Sweden”

Anti-ControI on February 5, 2016 at 2:27 AM

Ah’ite… thas it fo me fo a wile… c u L8R

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:30 AM

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 2:26 AM

just a thot
what if those 4 votes are split between cruz and trump
cruz and rubio
rubio and trump
why is everyone so sure that cruz gits all 4
requiring minds wanna no

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 2:38 AM

Like most of the true believers I’ve seen, just grasping at straws.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 2:17 AM

May I take this opportunity to caution y’all to always verify info. Nowadays with social media, it’s very easy to jump to false conclusions very quickly, and others can spread deliberate misinformation, in hopes that over-zealous supporters will run with it without fact-checking. From what little I’m seeing, the Carson rumor was not just disseminated among other campaign workers as an FYI/heads up, but was spread among caucus voters to put a thumb on the scale. Campaigns monitor media pretty closely, and now you see a game of hot potato as competing teams point the finger at each other.

What I’m trying to say is that haste makes waste.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:39 AM

Bush isn’t Latino… he just wishes he was, guilt-ridden white man that he is.

ExpressoBold on February 5, 2016 at 2:27 AM

I know, but he makes political hay out of self-identifying, so I humor him.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:43 AM

Jeb Bush is a WHITE dude pretending to be a Latino.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 2:26 AM

His family, his business, but I definitely think he is an apologist for illegals in part because of his familia. I also think Cruz and Rubio support amnesty for similar reasons. Mostly, it’s about money, though.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:48 AM

damn i just hate it when qotd is a poll thread
most folks just think allah is feedin’ her cats
and forgot to post qotd.
i know my cat is mouse huntin’ tonite
had a moose on the front porch yesterday tho.

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 2:49 AM

OK I’m off to read Steyn’s piece.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:56 AM

damn i just hate it when qotd is a poll thread
most folks just think allah is feedin’ her cats
and forgot to post qotd.
i know my cat is mouse huntin’ tonite
had a moose on the front porch yesterday tho.

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 2:49 AM

The crowds change. They all have different vibes. Some of them are healthy and some aren’t.

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 3:14 AM

just a thot
what if those 4 votes are split between cruz and trump
cruz and rubio
rubio and trump
why is everyone so sure that cruz gits all 4
requiring minds wanna no

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 2:38 AM

Who KNOWS?

That is the reason why the election is tainted. People were actively misled into a situation where they could have gone wherever.

Ben Carson could have been the one that was going to get 20-23%, instead of Marco Rubio, if he wasn’t destroyed in the Iowa caucuses by the Cruz smear campaign so Cruz could beat Donald Trump.

And Rubio wouldn’t even be talked about if that was the scenario.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:14 AM

May I take this opportunity to caution y’all to always verify info. Nowadays with social media, it’s very easy to jump to false conclusions very quickly, and others can spread deliberate misinformation, in hopes that over-zealous supporters will run with it without fact-checking. From what little I’m seeing, the Carson rumor was not just disseminated among other campaign workers as an FYI/heads up, but was spread among caucus voters to put a thumb on the scale. Campaigns monitor media pretty closely, and now you see a game of hot potato as competing teams point the finger at each other.

What I’m trying to say is that haste makes waste.

Christien on February 5, 2016 at 2:39 AM

The problem with the Carson’s QUITTING!! story is that after people decided to make up that he was quitting, CNN and Carson corrected it well before the caucus even started and Ted Cruz’s campaign (apparently Marco Rubio did it too based on one deleted tweet) still decided to run with the discredited fake story.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:18 AM

Them – “Bring ‘Em On In”

Anti-ControI on February 5, 2016 at 3:19 AM

aaarhg
ahoy matey
time to shove off

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:19 AM

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/02/greta-van-susteren-goes-off-on-cruz-camp-dirty-tricks-horrible-this-is-appalling/

cimbri on February 5, 2016 at 3:08 AM

Thanks.

Greta Van Susteren: Horrible!… This is appalling!

For some reason to me, what happened that night was terrible. But then when they have time for reflection they make it even worse with this statement tonight. It’s just appalling.

Karl Rove: They’re circling the wagons. They know they made a big error. They’re trying to change the subject and they’re circling the wagons.

Greta Van Susteren: Then don’t tell me that Senator Cruz apologized! Because all he does is try to make Carson wrong in this whole statement and Carson didn’t do anything wrong. It’s just completely ridiculous to say Senator Cruz apologized. They got caught. Now they got double caught. This is horrible and shame on the Cruz campaign!

https://youtu.be/2T_lU79AKio

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:21 AM

aaarhg

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:19 AM

rotf — wth

that’s not a cowboy sound

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 3:21 AM

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 3:14 AM

Axe

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:22 AM

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:14 AM

reckon if pigs had wings they mite could fly

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:23 AM

reckon if pigs had wings they mite could fly

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:23 AM

They might. Or they might stay in the mud where they like it.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:26 AM

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 3:21 AM

saw a feller pushin’ a canoe across the frozen river
thot a pirate sound would suffice

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:27 AM

Good morning, everyone! Ooops!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 3:37 AM

Good morning, everyone!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 3:37 AM

I need more time to adjust to that idea.

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 3:45 AM

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:26 AM

nah
reckon not
they like to got hosed once in a while
fresh water works best.

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:46 AM

nah
reckon not
they like to got hosed once in a while
fresh water works best.

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 3:46 AM

Water would be great, it shows the warts.

NWConservative on February 5, 2016 at 3:52 AM

…time for bed.

JugEarsButtHurt on February 5, 2016 at 4:10 AM

Morning y’all
Another day another poll
Meh

cmsinaz on February 5, 2016 at 4:32 AM

Preview of morning Joe and crew
‘Didnt Hillary do an awesome job last night? So presidential, great on foreign policy, yada yada yada….’

cmsinaz on February 5, 2016 at 4:43 AM

…time for bed.

JugEarsButtHurt on February 5, 2016 at 4:10 AM

I need more time to adjust to that idea.

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 4:49 AM

damn i just hate it when qotd is a poll thread
most folks just think allah is feedin’ her cats
and forgot to post qotd.
i know my cat is mouse huntin’ tonite
had a moose on the front porch yesterday tho.

Fred

jrsrigmvr on February 5, 2016 at 2:49 AM

Some cats catch mice. One that can pull down a moose is some cat.

Lolo on February 5, 2016 at 4:51 AM

Hiya Axe :)

cmsinaz on February 5, 2016 at 4:51 AM

Looks like Cruz is in that coveted third place spot in New Hampshire. Perhaps everybody can celebrate Cruz’s third place “win”, this time.

Axeman on February 5, 2016 at 5:00 AM

Good morning everybody.

Racistanyway on February 5, 2016 at 5:09 AM

yup
hillary was amazing!
mika and crew just thrilled about the debate and the moderators

cmsinaz on February 5, 2016 at 6:07 AM

bernie not looking at hillary during the debate last night. hillary staring at bernie like a cat looking at a mouse.

even with the sound off hillary wins.

renalin on February 5, 2016 at 6:08 AM

Hey, AP, it’s not “New Hampshirites,” it’s “Granite Staters.” :)

NHElle on February 5, 2016 at 6:31 AM

Hiya Axe :)

cmsinaz on February 5, 2016 at 4:51 AM

That which is morning best upon you and yours plummet irresistibly.

Axe on February 5, 2016 at 6:32 AM

I’m a New Hampster!

Racistanyway on February 5, 2016 at 6:36 AM

Yum! Jen Carfagno on the Weather Channel!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 6:52 AM

Yum! Jen Carfagno on the Weather Channel!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 6:52 AM

In a leather skirt!

Who is John Galt on February 5, 2016 at 7:08 AM

Rubio is really the one who is ahead.

Bush and Kasich are splitting the establishment vote.

History tells us the establishment guy usually wins.

weedisgood on February 5, 2016 at 8:38 AM

weedisgood on February 5, 2016 at 8:39 AM

Miss Jackie, did you catch this article at Breitbart about Sessions?
Wish he could get more exposure and response from candidates asap.
May you have a wonderful weekend. ; )

31giddyup on February 5, 2016 at 12:03 PM

So the more conservative candidates are not doing well in a state that doesn’t just lean left, but is more like a coma patient taking a decades-long nap on that side?

Shocking!!!

s1im on February 5, 2016 at 3:56 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4