A bleary eyed nation slogs through their Iowa hangovers

posted at 8:01 am on February 2, 2016 by Jazz Shaw

I briefly debated a title of, What the Iowa results mean, followed by my first ever single word post: Nothing. But that would be a bit on the cynical side even for me, and frankly it’s not entirely true.

On the Republican side of the coin I’m having a hard time seeing last night’s results as too much of a surprise, at least in the two top spots. Trump and Cruz had been battling neck and neck in the first place hunt for the past month and that’s where they finished. The final polling had it backward, with Trump at 28 and Cruz at 23, but the Cruz 28 to Trump’s 24 wasn’t all that huge of a flip. Still, analysts were looking for something to blame it on and they quickly settled on Trump’s failure to show for the last debate. (CNN)

Marco Rubio won 30% and Ted Cruz won 25% of the GOP voters who made up their minds in the days between the debate and the caucuses. Trump won only 14% of those late-deciding voters.

Among those who decided earlier, 30% backed Trump and Cruz while only 19% backed Rubio.

It won’t come as much of a surprise that Fox News was quick to latch on to that theory also, since they were on the opposite side of that food fight.

Marco Rubio, the best debater, came on strong and gained real momentum. He came very close to coming in second. Certainly he has to be viewed as a very serious candidate and the best bet to become the establishment candidate.

Trump is Trump and his special appeal to new voters and the angry anti-Washington element will go on, too, but with unpredictable results. He also paid a price for missing the last debate and fighting Fox News.

That’s an awfully thin wafer to base a four point variation on when the last poll (which everyone is using as the marker) had a margin of error which was basically the same amount. Still, if it makes them feel better, go with that. I have to wonder if Steve King tweeting that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race had anything to do with it, though. This wasn’t some hack from a local precinct printing up misleading flyers and tacking them to phone poles. It’s Steve King. If word of that got out at the caucus stations some folks may have been moved away from Carson and Cruz is a fairly likely next stop, at least for the evangelicals. But with that said, Carson was only projected to get 10% and he performed right along those lines, so who the heck knows?

Obviously Rubio was the fast mover last night, greatly overperforming expectations, so that may be where Trump lost four points. The problem with reading too much into any of this is that we’re heading into a very different electorate next Tuesday. We’re still expecting a Trump – Cruz finish there, but if Rubio can’t pull off another dazzling third place finish (highly questionable, since Kasich, Christie and Bush seem stronger potential thirds in New Hampshire) then his story arc may be shorter than his supporters are anticipating.

Only Huckabee has officially dropped thus far, which is great news for Trump and bad news for the establishment lane. But aside from possibly Carson, who should be a much better natural fit in Iowa than New Hampshire, who else should have dropped? Most of those other guys I just mentioned were waiting for New Hampshire anyway. I think the real culling of the field will begin after that.

As for the Democrats… meh. The last polls showed their race as a virtual tie with Hillary possibly having a tiny lead within the margin of error. That’s exactly how it ended. Sanders proved he was viable by turning out half the base for him on a cold Iowa night and he’ll take that as a moral victory (at least) into New Hampshire where he holds a strong lead. After that his support seems to collapse unless he can take the headlines from Iowa and New Hampshire and turn them into something national. It would be great to see, but color me dubious. Of course, now that O’Malley has dropped out, all three of his supporters may flip to Bernie, so he could have that going for him.

In closing we’ll swing back to the GOP for a moment. We are still a long way from a two man race. The two top dogs haven’t changed, but the establishment lane still has plenty of hopefuls who are praying for a miracle next Tuesday. Assuming somebody besides Rubio takes a strong third in the Granite State we will see at least four viable contenders going into South Carolina and Nevada. It will make the debates more productive, but I don’t expect it to be enough to shake Trump and Cruz out of the top branches of the tree… yet.

CruzIowaVictory


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

GOPe took top spot last night.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:00 AM

You obviously haven’t been paying close attention.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:03 AM

LOL the spin today is hilarious!

Trump is somehow dead after a single state and the delegate count basically tied 3 ways.

See, it’s all about the psychological game at this point, and the anti-Trumpers are desperate to paint a false narrative here.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:03 AM

I would have liked to see Killary lose…
I know Bernie doesn’t have a chance but still-be nice to see her lose Iowa and NH.

bazil9 on February 2, 2016 at 9:05 AM

See, it’s all about the psychological game at this point, and the anti-Trumpers are desperate to paint a false narrative here.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:03 AM

He’s FAR from dead. But he has an opponent, in Marco, that all the anti-Trumpers can get behind. That changes the complexion of the race. If there is one thing I’ve had to learn this race, it is not to underestimate Thedonald :-)

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:06 AM

lowandslow on February 2, 2016 at 8:13 AM

Seems as there might have been a typo at ACE…

The last report is that the Democratic Party is asking 90 Iowa precincts to “recreate” their polling sites because they were not properly staffed stuffed. I don’t know what that means, either. I don’t know if they mean they want people to come in and re-caucus, or just turn over their records.

http://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=361311

Just guessing… [/I]

RL on February 2, 2016 at 9:06 AM

Imagine the only data point we had 2 weeks ago was that Donald Trump would get 45,416 votes.

Would the predictions have been much different?

Skipity on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

LOL the spin today is hilarious!

Trump is somehow dead after a single state and the delegate count basically tied 3 ways.

See, it’s all about the psychological game at this point, and the anti-Trumpers are desperate to paint a false narrative here.

Paperclips

What is is that Trump always says? Look at the polls?

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

He’s FAR from dead. But he has an opponent, in Marco, that all the anti-Trumpers can get behind. That changes the complexion of the race. If there is one thing I’ve had to learn this race, it is not to underestimate Thedonald :-)

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:06 AM

It would be interesting to see the Estabs go nuts when The Donald gets his first state win.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

If conservatives fail to back someone who can win, Rubio will take this thing and we’ll be left talking about how we won a “symbolic victory” and “sent a message to Washington.”.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 8:47 AM

They don’t get it. They are too busy imagining that Cruz isn’t a thinner Huckabee, and polishing AP’s knob because he called a Trump Howler Monkey “embarrassing” in the comments. Like AP and Hot Air won’t be solidly in the tank for Rubio after pretending for a couple of days that they are excited about this triumph of “Conservatism vs. populism”.

Invade the world/invite the world lives!

The fix was in last night for Rubio. Under no conceivable scenario should Rubio have nearly knocked Trump out of second, especially with that turnout. He ran a lot of ads, but that was about it. His ground game was being openly mocked in the press. When Rubio managed to attend an event (no football that night), it was sparsely attended. For all the talk about Cruz’s organizational prowess and Trump’s celebrity, Rubio nearly sailed into second with neither. Something stinks.

I can handle Cruz beating Trump; that makes sense, in terms of Iowa, in terms of the polls, in terms of common sense. Rubio does not make sense at all. Trump knows it; he was in shock last night. I’m still in shock.

I’m watching NH, but I’m pretty much through, until I can get a handle on this. I’m expecting Trump’s support to collapse going forward. He’s too much. After all that Trumpiness, to be nearly beaten by the coked out high school kid. What’s Trump going to do, ratchet it up? Change tactics and become nice? LOL!

The simple fact is, both Cruz and Rubio are invade the world/invite the world candidates, one open and one stealth. It’s what GOP Inc., and its voters, want.

Joseph K on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:06 AM

Don’t forget Cruz..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:10 AM

It would be interesting to see the Estabs go nuts when The Donald gets his first state win.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

I though the Establishment hated Cruz more.

Bitter Clinger on February 2, 2016 at 9:10 AM

*thought

Bitter Clinger on February 2, 2016 at 9:11 AM

I can handle Cruz beating Trump; that makes sense, in terms of Iowa, in terms of the polls, in terms of common sense. Rubio does not make sense at all. Trump knows it; he was in shock last night. I’m still in shock.

I’m watching NH, but I’m pretty much through, until I can get a handle on this. I’m expecting Trump’s support to collapse going forward. He’s too much. After all that Trumpiness, to be nearly beaten by the coked out high school kid. What’s Trump going to do, ratchet it up? Change tactics and become nice? LOL!

The simple fact is, both Cruz and Rubio are invade the world/invite the world candidates, one open and one stealth. It’s what GOP Inc., and its voters, want.

Joseph K on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:12 AM

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:10 AM

I know it sounds silly to say it after his win, but I don’t see how he improves his lot. I think it likely that he’ll suffer the fate of many an IA victor; that of fading into obscurity in the coming weeks.

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:12 AM

You don’t have to wait a week to see Ted’s name dropped from the headlines. It’s already happened. The center link on Drudge is about Hillary and Ted’s highlight article is mixed in the headlines with a better Trump and Rubio quote than Ted’s.

forgot to bid on February 2, 2016 at 9:12 AM

See, it’s all about the psychological game at this point, and the anti-Trumpers are desperate to paint a false narrative here.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:03 AM

He’s FAR from dead. But he has an opponent, in Marco, that all the anti-Trumpers can get behind. That changes the complexion of the race. If there is one thing I’ve had to learn this race, it is not to underestimate Thedonald :-)

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:06 AM

Howler monkeys and RINOs.

“It’s a jungle out there.”

Bitter Clinger on February 2, 2016 at 9:13 AM

I’m watching NH, but I’m pretty much through, until I can get a handle on this. I’m expecting Trump’s support to collapse going forward. He’s too much. After all that Trumpiness, to be nearly beaten by the coked out high school kid. What’s Trump going to do, ratchet it up? Change tactics and become nice? LOL!

Joseph K on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

This is what I am concerned is happening too. I’m hoping the polls won’t shift in New Hampshire, but at this rate they probably will. I expect Rubio to mostly run the table, with the possible exception of SC, if a Rubio win happens in NH.

Cruz is just an anti-Trump protest candidate and will quickly fade once Trump is gone and it’s down to him and Rubio. He’s unlikely to win any states outside the deep south.

I may quit commenting on the blog awhile depending on the NH outcome, though part of me wants to stay and enjoy the slowly dawning horror of the conservative anti-Trumpers if Rubio does take NH.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:14 AM

Sorry, posted before I could finish…

Not surprising the GOPe tried to buy Rubio the top tier slot. But if this is the best they can do, I wouldn’t worry. I would have been more surprised had Rubio shown up surprisingly weak, but still top of the GOPe field.

You will see more of this: The GOPe has very deep pockets.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:14 AM

Congratulations too my fellow hoser on a hard fought victory. Never trust polls,

Looks like Rubio has the Cuban mojo to go all the way though.

can_con on February 2, 2016 at 9:15 AM

I though the Establishment hated Cruz more.

Bitter Clinge

Either the establishment is schizophrenic, or the Cruz campaign is just full of it. Judging by recent actions, I think it may be the latter.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:15 AM

LOL the spin today is hilarious!

Trump is somehow dead after a single state and the delegate count basically tied 3 ways.

See, it’s all about the psychological game at this point, and the anti-Trumpers are desperate to paint a false narrative here.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:03 AM

Fyi, everything in bold is spin… just sayin

WordsMatter on February 2, 2016 at 9:16 AM

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:12 AM

Don’t be surprised if he does..Cruz and Rubio are “hard chargers”..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:16 AM

Sorry, posted before I could finish…

Not surprising the GOPe tried to buy Rubio the top tier slot. But if this is the best they can do, I wouldn’t worry. I would have been more surprised had Rubio shown up surprisingly weak, but still top of the GOPe field.

You will see more of this: The GOPe has very deep pockets.

Turtle317

Which is why more establishment money was spent AGAINST Rubio. Uh, huh.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

The fix was in last night for Rubio. Under no conceivable scenario should Rubio have nearly knocked Trump out of second, especially with that turnout. … Something stinks.

Joseph K on February 2, 2016 at 9:08 AM

People turned out in large numbers to vote for Cruz and Rubio, but not so much for Trump. Trump’s unfavorables are, as he would say, yuge. It’s not really that hard to understand.

Syzygy on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

Jazz, thanks for the sober and less hysterical analysis. You are appreciated here.

Dongemaharu on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

Iowa crapitalist corn farmers hardest hit?

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

It would be interesting to see the Estabs go nuts when The Donald gets his first state win.

Turtle317

It will be more interesting if Trump loses again if the nation has enough grief counselors, or suicide hotlines to cope.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:19 AM

I may quit commenting on the blog awhile depending on the NH outcome, though part of me wants to stay and enjoy the slowly dawning horror of the conservative anti-Trumpers if Rubio does take NH.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:14 AM

Why??..I wish you luck..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:19 AM

Which is why more establishment money was spent AGAINST Rubio. Uh, huh.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

I would disagree… unless you are talking about the money machine behind Jeb!

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:19 AM

Cruz outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: pedestrian, expected even

Rubio outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?

boone on February 2, 2016 at 9:20 AM

Why??..I wish you luck..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:19 AM

I’m not really interested in sticking around for a Romney 2012 replay once Rubio begins rolling up states.

We’ll see what happens in NH.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:21 AM

I’m not really interested in sticking around for a Romney 2012 replay once Rubio begins rolling up states.

We’ll see what happens in NH.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:21 AM

Me too. I don’t want to see history repeat itself… but I repeat myself.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:22 AM

Fyi, everything in bold is spin… just sayin

WordsMatter on February 2, 2016 at 9:16 AM

Actually, no it’s not. The delegate count is basically tied 3 ways. Or didn’t you realize that?

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:23 AM

We’ll see what happens in NH.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:21 AM

Comparing Rubio and|or Cruz to Romney???..Wow..Just..Wow..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:24 AM

Rubio came close to pulling off an insane upset.

His vote total, 43,132, would have been good enough to win any other year in the history of Iowa.

Rubio fans have a lot to be happy about today. So do Cruz supporters.

So again, congrats to Rubio and Cruz folks on the boards. Regardless of which of those 3 gets the nod, we’ll need to come together once we pick a nominee.

So on this day of sour grapes (as a Trump supporter), I extend this olive branch to Cruzarios and Rubicons:

If your guy pulls it off, I’ll hold my nose in the general and hope you’ll consider doing the same if it goes the other way.

Skipity on February 2, 2016 at 9:24 AM

LOL the spin today is hilarious!

Trump is somehow dead after a single state and the delegate count basically tied 3 ways.

See, it’s all about the psychological game at this point, and the anti-Trumpers are desperate to paint a false narrative here.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:03 AM

I’ll have to count posts but it seems that most of the actual spin is anti-Cruz. After all, Cruz won, there is NO SPIN for him. It’s in the books. The only spin is trying to show how Marco is really the man and Cruz will lose because of some Iowa curse.

BierManVA on February 2, 2016 at 9:24 AM

You don’t have to wait a week to see Ted’s name dropped from the headlines. It’s already happened.

Cruz has been systematically “no-platformed” ever since he got elected in 2012, even worse than Palin. The UniParty know Cruz means what he says and won’t find a deal to sell out to. This terrifies them. Trump will just be a more expensive Vichy Mitchy. They know how to deal with him.

SDN on February 2, 2016 at 9:25 AM

I would disagree… unless you are talking about the money machine behind Jeb!

Turtle317

Unless I’m missing something Jeb has been the biggest spender in the GOP race at around 89 million (guess he never learned about return on investment). 2nd biggest is basically a tie between Rubio and Cruz (40 to 49). Who was the shared target of both Cruz and Jeb (especially the last few weeks)? Rubio. So yea, Rubio has survived quite a bit of spending against him.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Cruz won but he hurt himself really bad last night in Iowa. There is a narrative now about him. With the shaming of voters and the Carson stunt and then acting holier than thou- a lot of voters are seeing him for what he is as a manipulator. Rubio was a big winner but he’s got to increase his GOTV game and that takes resources. Trump lost but he came out looking dignified. Florida is going to tell you who is the nominee in Cleveland. It’s winner takes all and if Rubio losses in his home state than it’s over.

OliverB on February 2, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Cruz outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: pedestrian, expected even

Rubio outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?

boone on February 2, 2016 at 9:20 AM

You didn’t think the GOPe was going to let Liberty prevail, did you?

WordsMatter on February 2, 2016 at 9:27 AM

Unless I’m missing something Jeb has been the biggest spender in the GOP race at around 89 million (guess he never learned about return on investment). 2nd biggest is basically a tie between Rubio and Cruz (40 to 49). Who was the shared target of both Cruz and Jeb (especially the last few weeks)? Rubio. So yea, Rubio has survived quite a bit of spending against him.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Makes one wonder how Jeb! is going to cut federal spending….

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:28 AM

Comparing Rubio and|or Cruz to Romney???..Wow..Just..Wow..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:24 AM

Rubio is Romney 2.0. He’s just younger and prettier.

I’m not comparing Cruz to Romney. I’m more inclined to compare him to Huckabee.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:28 AM

Disagree:

Cruz won but he hurt himself really bad last night in Iowa. There is a narrative now about him. With the shaming of voters and the Carson stunt and then acting holier than thou- a lot of voters are seeing him for what he is as a manipulator.

Agree:

Rubio was a big winner but he’s got to increase his GOTV game and that takes resources. Trump lost but he came out looking dignified. Florida is going to tell you who is the nominee in Cleveland. It’s winner takes all and if Rubio losses in his home state than it’s over.

OliverB on February 2, 2016 at 9:26 AM

WordsMatter on February 2, 2016 at 9:29 AM

Cruz outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: pedestrian, expected even

Rubio outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?

boone on February 2, 2016 at 9:20 AM

I hear ya, but if you zoom out to about a week, Rubio had a much bigger deficit to close. He went from 10 to 17 and finished at about 23%. That’s a big move. But what counts even more is that his rivals for the GOPe vote all vanished.

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:29 AM

Rubio is Romney 2.0. He’s just younger and prettier.

I’m not comparing Cruz to Romney. I’m more inclined to compare him to Huckabee.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:28 AM

…and Huck 2.0 is also younger and prettier.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:30 AM

Is there a breakdown of last night?
How did Jeb do? lmao

bazil9 on February 2, 2016 at 9:30 AM

I’ll have to count posts but it seems that most of the actual spin is anti-Cruz. After all, Cruz won, there is NO SPIN for him. It’s in the books. The only spin is trying to show how Marco is really the man and Cruz will lose because of some Iowa curse.

BierManVA on February 2, 2016 at 9:24 AM

Well, yeah, but that’s because Cruz is just a tool used by the GOPe to get either Rubio or Bush elected. They know they have to knock out Trump since he is the only one who can actually beat them in this primary. After that, taking out Cruz becomes easy.

So, you may notice that Cruz is already basically being ignored by the media as they pump up Rubio. None of this is unexpected.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:31 AM

…and Huck 2.0 is also younger and prettier.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:30 AM

Yeah. Cruz isn’t an exact match; he’s got better policy chops than Huckabee, but the basic appeal of him (a southern Evangelical candidate) is essentially the same.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:32 AM

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:28 AM

That comment makes even less sense..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:32 AM

Cruz outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: pedestrian, expected even

Rubio outperforming the final polling by 4-5 points: DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?

boone

Uh, no. Cruz outperformed his average by about 3.8 points. Rubio outperformed his average by 6.2. Also Rubio averaged 11.7 point soff the lead, yet finished only 4.6 points back.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:33 AM

So, you may notice that Cruz is already basically being ignored by the media as they pump up Rubio. None of this is unexpected.

Paperclips on February 2, 2016 at 9:31 AM

Well, there’s a reason to that. But not quite what you may think.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:33 AM

Excellent post tequila is not recommended on election nights

LeeBelieu on February 2, 2016 at 9:33 AM

Makes one wonder how Jeb! is going to cut federal spending….

Turtle317

Wait, I was actually supposed to pretend he would? Damn, knew I forgot to do something.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:33 AM

Well, there’s a reason to that. But not quite what you may think.

Turtle317 on February 2, 2016 at 9:33 AM

+10

BierManVA on February 2, 2016 at 9:37 AM

Cruz wins and HA instead loads up the front with multiple pics of the man who famously said, that no one remembers a man who comes in second?
Well, at least Jeb has been replaced by the Marco/Microsoft tag team.

Don L on February 2, 2016 at 9:40 AM

It would be interesting to see the Estabs go nuts when The Donald gets his first state win.

Turtle317

It will be more interesting if Trump loses again if the nation has enough grief counselors, or suicide hotlines to cope.

Zaggs on February 2, 2016 at 9:19 AM

Who knew that laughing so hard was a form of weight lose. Thanks Zaggs.

Don L on February 2, 2016 at 9:47 AM

Trump did very well in his first political contest. His first political contest ever… Really, quite remarkable.

Cruz did very well considering that people said he had “fringe” support. (Fringe meant negatively, as in whacko birds and Hobbits.)

Marco is the GOPe and anti-Trump candidate. It was not surprising that the hardcore, professional Iowa caucus-goers chose to back him.

All in all, a fun night, but keep reminding people that Cruz won. The MSM has a bit of a crush on Marco.

Fallon on February 2, 2016 at 9:53 AM

Feb 02, 2016 at 9:53 am Fallon
This.

LeeBelieu on February 2, 2016 at 9:55 AM

That comment makes even less sense..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 9:32 AM

I hope you’re just being willfully obtuse, but if not I’ll spell it out for you: Cruz has limited appeal beyond the south, much like Huckabee and Santorum. Cruz’s victory last night was heavily centered around his ability to turn out the Evangelical vote.

Outside of that, what is Cruz’s strategy for victory? Does he even have one?

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:57 AM

Ted Cruz went into Corn/ethanol country told them to stick their subsidy in their ear, had attacks coming from every DC political hack, every kitchen sink in Trump Tower thrown at him, FoxNews piling on him, Rubio & Rand Paul nipping at him, and he defied the polls against him, 24/7 Trump sucking the airtime out of all the campaigns, and also manages to have more votes in the Iowa caucus in GOP History?

Nope. This win means nothing. Except that conservatism wins.

portlandon on February 2, 2016 at 9:58 AM

What an absurd stat.

Skipity on February 2, 2016 at 8:39 AM

It is not that absurd.
If you look at it from the other side of the argument you get.

Every single nominee we have put forward that did not win Iowa lost the general handing the Presidency to the Democrats.

You want the winner of Iowa to be the nominee, because the person who wins Iowa is better aligned with the overall electorate than the one that wins New Hampshire.

Constitutionalist on February 2, 2016 at 10:00 AM

Outside of that, what is Cruz’s strategy for victory? Does he even have one?

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:57 AM

What is Trump’s strategy for victory? Does he even have one?

Obviously, Cruz has one in Iowa because he won and Trump didn’t because he lost.

Seriously, did you really even think about your question before you wrote it?

BierManVA on February 2, 2016 at 10:07 AM

MeanWhile,..in upcoming NH,….its Victory Babyeeeeeeeeeee:
———————————————————–

2016 US elections
10m
Photo: GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie to campaign volunteers at a kick-off rally in New Hampshire:

‘We’re going to make history in the next week’

– @EricaRBrown
See original on twitter.com
============================

https://twitter.com/EricaRBrown

canopfor on February 2, 2016 at 10:08 AM

Reading a lot of the posts today around the Iowa results reminds me of one thing. People believe what they want to believe, they see what they want to see and they hear what they want to hear. It’s like watching a football game and seeing an egregious penalty. The fans of the team being flagged will hem and haw and state unequivocally that there was “No penalty!” This will of course be in direct conflict to the person lying there with his head six feet away from his body. And when that team ends up losing, the fan will waffle endlessly about what shoulda, coulda or woulda been if only this, that or the other had happened. Never mind that the game is over and one need only look at next week.

The facts are thus:

-Ted Cruz played an old-school game by being superior on all sides of the ball and proving that the ground game counts.

None of this matters in upcoming races. But one needs to ask themselves, “What will Cruz do next? Will he change his strategy if necessary?

It’s been discussed time and time again these last few months by pundits on both sides, that Cruz plays a masterful game. I see no reason to believe that that will change going forward.

Winning builds momentum and demoralizes the enemy. Go Cruz!

BierManVA on February 2, 2016 at 10:09 AM

It was nice to see Bill standing behind Hillary last night, thinking “Hmmm, You know what? I’d hit that…”

Mr_Magoo on February 2, 2016 at 10:18 AM

canopfor on February 2, 2016 at 8:54 AM

Good to see you friend..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 8:56 AM

Dire Straits:

Good morning Dire, sorry for the late response.:)

canopfor on February 2, 2016 at 10:20 AM

Cruz = Huckabee 2008
Trump = Romney 2008
Rubio = McCain 2008
Bush = Giuliani 2008

Rix on February 2, 2016 at 10:23 AM

I hear ya, but if you zoom out to about a week, Rubio had a much bigger deficit to close. He went from 10 to 17 and finished at about 23%. That’s a big move. But what counts even more is that his rivals for the GOPe vote all vanished.

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:29 AM

It’s more like Rubio’s GOPe lane opponents cut their losses knowing Iowa was a 3-man fight and took up permanent residence in New Hampshire.

If I were in their camps I would be quite pleased. No matter how close the 3rd place finish, 3rd is 3rd and Rubio has not proven himself as the “Trump slayer” even when the lane is cleared for him.

The person to watch in NH will be Cruz. He will be the recipient of the fewest attacks, but he’s still going to have the ground game mojo going. A Cruz upset blows up this race.

BKennedy on February 2, 2016 at 10:26 AM

It was nice to see Bill standing behind Hillary last night, thinking “Hmmm, You know what? I’d hit that…”

Mr_Magoo on February 2, 2016 at 10:18 AM

I’d hit that, too. With a sledgehammer.

Rix on February 2, 2016 at 10:29 AM

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:57 AM

Cruz is a conservative..Enough Said..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 10:31 AM

canopfor on February 2, 2016 at 10:20 AM

Good to see you..:)

Dire Straits on February 2, 2016 at 10:33 AM

Cruz is just an anti-Trump protest candidate and will quickly fade once Trump is gone and it’s down to him and Rubio. He’s unlikely to win any states outside the deep south.

I may quit commenting on the blog awhile depending on the NH outcome, though part of me wants to stay and enjoy the slowly dawning horror of the conservative anti-Trumpers if Rubio does take NH.

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:14 AM

I hope you’re just being willfully obtuse, but if not I’ll spell it out for you: Cruz has limited appeal beyond the south, much like Huckabee and Santorum. Cruz’s victory last night was heavily centered around his ability to turn out the Evangelical vote.

Outside of that, what is Cruz’s strategy for victory? Does he even have one?

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:57 AM

Spot on analyses. Those Iowa ethanol farmers sure illustrated Cruz’s lack of appeal last night, along with quite a few lifelong Democrats who claimed they had never voted Republican until list night. You’re a dunce. Good riddance!

UnstChem on February 2, 2016 at 10:37 AM

[W]hat is Cruz’s strategy for victory?

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:57 AM

Probably the same strategy for victory that put Cruz on top of the Iowa caucus.

JetBoy on February 2, 2016 at 11:07 AM

I heard on Varney this morning that it was so close on the Democrat side that for six of the votes in the reported count it came down to a coin toss. All six went to Hillary. In the official count she won by four.

If the coin tosses went the other way the media would be talking a Sanders victory this morning.

agmartin on February 2, 2016 at 11:33 AM

To the Constitutionalist who wrote that no Republican wins that loses Iowa I would point to Ronald Reagan. People here don’t seem to realize that image is important and Rubio, who nearly came in second from nowhere has what Reagan had-a sunny disposition while being Conservative. That picture last night with him and his kids and wife was in stark contrast with Hillary. Cruz will fade because he comes across mean and angry. His only purpose now is to get rid of Trump, I hope.

jake22 on February 2, 2016 at 11:35 AM

No need to read any more news reports: HA has all the angles and spin covered here! There are also two diametrically opposed predictions going about whether the GOPe will unite behind Rubio, or the scavengers will jump him even harder to raise their pitiful vote shares.

Who said social sciences are not experimental?

Give ‘Em a Few More Days, And Everyone Will “Know” That Rubio Won Iowa

Heh

lowandslow on February 2, 2016 at 8:13 AM

Read that, and then linked on over to Iowahawk for the mother of all thread-winners

David Burge [email protected] 2h2 hours ago
Congrats to Donald Trump, the only white guy to crack into the Iowa GOP top 4

Dittos to these:

Jazz, thanks for the sober and less hysterical analysis. You are appreciated here.

Dongemaharu on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

Iowa crapitalist corn farmers hardest hit?

MJBrutus on February 2, 2016 at 9:18 AM

You can hear the disturbance in the Force – the subsidy cutter WON the most votes.

Isn’t there anything else going on in the world besides the Iowa caucus?

Cleombrotus on February 2, 2016 at 8:43 AM

That’s what Breitbart is for; sorry, Jazz & Ed & AP & all, but HA is usually a day or two behind the Bigs.

AesopFan on February 2, 2016 at 11:45 AM

Drudge has a great story this morning about Democrats at Bernie Sanders rally last night chanting “She’s a liar!” when Blue’s speech was airing. Keep in mind- these are DEMOCRATS who will most likely end up having to vote for Blue in November.

Happy Nomad on February 2, 2016 at 8:28 AM

This is indeed the most fractious campaign on both sides of my voting life-time (Chicago ’68 was a bit too early).

AesopFan on February 2, 2016 at 11:47 AM

To the Constitutionalist who wrote that no Republican wins that loses Iowa I would point to Ronald Reagan. People here don’t seem to realize that image is important and Rubio, who nearly came in second from nowhere has what Reagan had-a sunny disposition while being Conservative. That picture last night with him and his kids and wife was in stark contrast with Hillary. Cruz will fade because he comes across mean and angry. His only purpose now is to get rid of Trump, I hope.

jake22 on February 2, 2016 at 11:35 AM

That is why when I wrote it I stated since 1988…

Constitutionalist on February 2, 2016 at 11:49 AM

Whether you agree with anything Rubio says, in my opinion he can talk anyone into a corner.

Walter L. Newton on February 2, 2016 at 8:10 AM

He hasn’t talked Ted Cruz into a corner and he never will. Marco “Gang of Eight” Rubio sold out the voters of Florida and cannot be trusted.

Bob Davis on February 2, 2016 at 12:06 PM

Cruz is just an anti-Trump protest candidate and will quickly fade once Trump is gone and it’s down to him and Rubio.
Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:14 AM

Cruz was the first candidate to throw his hat into the ring. Trump was months later. How does the first candidate end up being the anti-anyone protest candidate to be named months from then? Especially given the chummy relationship between the two campaigns up until a month ago (or maybe less).

anuts on February 2, 2016 at 12:07 PM

What an absurd stat.

Skipity on February 2, 2016 at 8:39 AM

It is not that absurd.
If you look at it from the other side of the argument you get.

Every single nominee we have put forward that did not win Iowa lost the general handing the Presidency to the Democrats.

You want the winner of Iowa to be the nominee, because the person who wins Iowa is better aligned with the overall electorate than the one that wins New Hampshire.

Constitutionalist on February 2, 2016 at 10:00 AM

Bill Clinton lost Iowa. Al Gore won Iowa. John Kerry won Iowa.

Bush Sr. was ANOINTED as Reagan’s 3rd term and won Iowa (big whoop).

Reagan lost Iowa.

Iowa on the pulse of America?

Uh-huh.

Skipity on February 2, 2016 at 12:13 PM

For those arguing that Iowa is a curse to win, just remember that since 1988, the only person to win the presidency in the republican party has been the person who also won Iowa.
Every other nominee lost the general election.
You win Iowa and you become the nominee, and you are in good standing with those who actually won the day.

Constitutionalist on February 2, 2016 at 8:36 AM

Another testable hypothesis.

AesopFan on February 2, 2016 at 12:26 PM

Every single nominee we have put forward that did not win Iowa lost the general handing the Presidency to the Democrats.

You want the winner of Iowa to be the nominee, because the person who wins Iowa is better aligned with the overall electorate than the one that wins New Hampshire.

Constitutionalist on February 2, 2016 at 10:00 AM

Bill Clinton lost Iowa. Al Gore won Iowa. John Kerry won Iowa.

Bush Sr. was ANOINTED as Reagan’s 3rd term and won Iowa (big whoop).

Reagan lost Iowa.

Iowa on the pulse of America?

Uh-huh.

Skipity on February 2, 2016 at 12:13 PM

Can’t use Democrats as evidence in a Republican hypothesis.

Reagan’s campaign manager blew it in Iowa (told RR to skip the debate); he was fired, and Reagan owned the election after that.

As I said, it’s still a testable hypothesis.
Not that any models are holding good in this election.

AesopFan on February 2, 2016 at 12:32 PM

Ted Cruz went into Corn/ethanol country told them to stick their subsidy in their ear, had attacks coming from every DC political hack, every kitchen sink in Trump Tower thrown at him, FoxNews piling on him, Rubio & Rand Paul nipping at him, and he defied the polls against him, 24/7 Trump sucking the airtime out of all the campaigns, and also manages to have more votes in the Iowa caucus in GOP History?

Nope. This win means nothing. Except that conservatism wins.

portlandon on February 2, 2016 at 9:58 AM

Indeed.

AesopFan on February 2, 2016 at 12:32 PM

Only Huckabee has officially dropped thus far, which is great news for Trump and bad news for the establishment lane. But aside from possibly Carson, who should be a much better natural fit in Iowa than New Hampshire, who else should have dropped? Most of those other guys I just mentioned were waiting for New Hampshire anyway. I think the real culling of the field will begin after that.

Rick Santorum?

Sackett on February 2, 2016 at 2:42 PM

I hope you’re just being willfully obtuse, but if not I’ll spell it out for you: Cruz has limited appeal beyond the south, much like Huckabee and Santorum. Cruz’s victory last night was heavily centered around his ability to turn out the Evangelical vote.

Outside of that, what is Cruz’s strategy for victory? Does he even have one?

Doomberg on February 2, 2016 at 9:57 AM

Original Cruz Plan:

1: Win Iowa
2: Let Bush and Rubio fight it out in New Hampshire
3: Win South Carolina
4: Try to steal Nevada away from Rubio
5: Dominate in the south for the next several weeks building momentum
6: Hope that Rubio and Bush split Florida so he can sneak a win
7: Based on that momentum of constant wins, win enough of the remaining delegates to get the nomination

Trump has scrambled that a bit, but it gives Cruz a new plan:

1: Win Iowa
2: Hope Trump wins New Hampshire, stopping any Rubio momentum
3: Win South Carolina
4: Try to steal Nevada away from Rubio
5: Dominate in the south for the next several weeks building momentum
6: Hope Trump decides to drop out, and that he (Cruz) can pick up enough of Trumps voters that combined with his momentum means he wins enough delegates to get the nomination.

And alternate plan:
1: Win Iowa
2: Hope Trump wins New Hampshire, stopping any Rubio momentum
3: Win South Carolina
4: Try to steal Nevada away from Rubio
5: Dominate in the south for the next several weeks building momentum
6: Hope Trump continues to beat Rubio in New York, New England, and the Mid-West, while Cruz beats out Rubio in the West as the better anti-Trump vote. (Positioning himself as the compromise between “establishment” Rubio and Trump.)
7: Go into the convention with a plurality of delegates, and negotiate his way into the nomination.

Sackett on February 2, 2016 at 2:51 PM

And what is Cruz’ plan to beat Hiilary? There aren’t enough Evangelicals to do that- If Cruz were to win the nomination, the Republicans would lose up and down the ticket. He simply can’t win a General Election as he cant win any purple states or turn any Blue States red. He is no Ronald Reagan. He is the opposite with a mean affect and whiny delivery. A bad candidate with a bad disposition. It’s a recipie for disaster.

jake22 on February 2, 2016 at 6:23 PM

Soooo, today I just found out WHO is behind ALL this slimy Cruz campaign crap, the ‘Voter Violation’ mailer and now this ‘Carson has dropped out’ lie. It’s Jeff Roe, Jeff Roe, let me see, Jeff Roe? Why does that ring a bell? Ooooo, that’s right, he is the slime ball who was responsible for the suicide of Missouri state Auditor Tom Schweich, THAT Jeff Roe.

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/04/09/398299148/suicides-by-missouri-politicians-raise-questions-about-state-ethics

“Schweich launched his campaign for Missouri governor with a scathing broadside against the state’s Republican Party establishment.”

“Schweich left behind a wife, two kids and lots of unanswered questions. Friends said he was distraught over a coordinated assault from Republican colleagues backing his chief primary opponent, Catherine Hanaway (who went on to lose to Jay Nixon (D)). With voting still more than a year away, they’d already launched an attack ad, in the style of the Netflix series House of Cards.” (and a whisper campaign all orchestrated by Jeff Roe)

Schweich’s press secretary, Spence Jackson was found dead a month later!

I was ALL IN for Cruz but that ‘Voter Violation’ thing really rubbed me the wrong way. How could Cruz think that was a good idea? Now this ‘Carson’s out’ lie.

NEVER doubt MY first instincts. I thought I recognized that stench, it’s Jeff Roe.

On the bottom words are shallow.
On the surface talk is cheap.
You can only judge the distance
by the company you keep
–Joe Walsh

Pole-Cat on February 3, 2016 at 2:08 AM

Comment pages: 1 2