Hmmm: Final Emerson College poll of Iowa puts Rubio within five points of first place

posted at 1:21 pm on February 1, 2016 by Allahpundit

I don’t buy that he’s as close as this, but (a) I blogged the last Emerson College poll of New Hampshire poll showing Jeb surging past Rubio so I’m duty-bound to blog this one and (b) as Ed noted earlier, Marcomentum does appear to be real — even if EC is probably overstating the extent of it.

If Rubio shocks the world tonight by finishing first or second in Iowa, this is one of the polls that everyone will be citing tomorrow as having detected the surge — Trump 27, Cruz 26, Rubio 22. Imagine: There’s a teeny tiny chance that we’ll see “Can Rubio run the table?” hot takes sprouting across the Web this week.

For Trump, the results represent a 6-point drop in just 10 days. In an Emerson poll released on January 21, Trump won 33% of the vote. His decline appears to be Rubio’s gain; during the same 10-day period, Rubio was up 8 points from 14%.

The poll found that Trump’s decision to skip the last Republican debate had a negative impact on his support. Nearly four out of 10 likely GOP caucus participants (39%) said they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the boycott, while 14% said his absence made it more likely they would vote for him. Fifty-two percent (52%) said it would have no impact on their vote.

“Since our January 21 poll, Trump’s favorability has decreased by 10 points,” said ECPS data analyst Matt Couture. “His decision to skip the debate seems to be a factor in this decrease.”

Trump’s not the only candidate who’s tanked over the last 10 days. Carson is also down six points in EC’s polling, from nine percent to three, which seems plausible as his fans reluctantly give up on him as a lost cause and vote strategically. Who are they breaking towards, though? Emerson suggests Trump is shedding support to Rubio, but that seems unlikely: Not only do many populists dismiss Rubio as Mr. Insider, he’s the most glaring heretic on immigration in the race for border hawks. It’s more likely, I think, that Trump has shed some votes to Cruz — he’s up three points in Emerson’s polling of Iowa in the last 10 days — and Carson is shedding votes to Rubio. Think about it. If you’ve stuck with Carson until late January, it’s probably because you find both Trump and Cruz unacceptable for whatever reason. Rubio’s the logical place for someone like that to land. And stylistically, Rubio has more in common with Carson than Cruz does. They’re both soft-spoken and neither has had his Christian piety questioned, as Trump and Cruz (via his “tithing” shortfall and Huckabee’s endless attacks) both have. They share similarities in tone too. The theme of Carson’s campaign, per his profession, is “healing” while Rubio has run on optimism (well, until recently); each of them has mostly ducked the sort of nasty punch-ups that Trump and Cruz have been consumed with over the past month. If it happens tonight for Rubio, I’ll bet Carson defectors have a lot to do with it.

Interestingly, this isn’t the only last-minute poll showing a jump ball in Iowa. Opinion Savvy has the race … Trump 20, Cruz 19, Rubio 19.

os

I’m … pretty sure Trump and Cruz are both going to crack 20 percent, but the interesting number there is Rand Paul’s. Paul hasn’t seen nine percent in a poll of Iowa since June, but he did have a strong final debate last week by acclamation. Cruz, his main competitor for libertarian votes, had a relatively weak one and has been trending downward in various polls of the state over the last two weeks. It’s not implausible that some Ron Paul fans who’ve been flirting with Cruz decide to come home to Rand at the last minute. And if they do, that makes Trump’s chances of winning tonight even better. Lots has been written about Jeb Bush, the establishment’s favorite candidate, enabling Trump the insurgent in ways large and small, but that grand irony will have competition tonight if Rand peels enough votes away from Cruz to push him into second place. Trump is as overt a repudiation of libertarianism in a serious contender for the nomination as the GOP has seen in years — and Paul could, with a strong finish, propel him towards victory.

Don’t put too much stock in either of these polls, though. Emerson has a C+ rating from FiveThirtyEight and their sample consists of just 298 likely Republican caucusgoers for a margin of error of 5.6 percent. (Which, technically, means Rubio might actually be leading.) Opinion Savvy, which Nate Silver says is essentially the same shop as Insider Advantage, has a D rating. If you’re making any bets, I’d stick with Selzer and Quinnipiac.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Fossten is on Rush! Defends Cruz vs Megyn Kelly.

Defends Trump against conservatives who chastise him for being a recent conservative convert.

Says Trump doesn’t have Guile.

Good call Fossten. Solid. You got Rush flustered.

portlandon on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

OK got on with Rush. He said he made the comment about Megyn not being a bad person in a very personal sense, not to be confused with her professional job. I also talked to him about Trump converting to conservative policies and the attacks he gets from the conservative media calling him a liar for saying he converted.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

Fossten is on Rush! Defends Cruz vs Megyn Kelly.

Defends Trump against conservatives who chastise him for being a recent conservative convert.

Says Trump doesn’t have Guile.

Good call Fossten. Solid. You got Rush flustered.

portlandon on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

Thanks man.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

Honest Opinion AllahP…

Summer 2015: Romney
Dec, January: Cruz
February 2016: Rubio?

mjbrooks3 on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

All right I’m up next guys

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:25 PM

Good job! You had Rush squirming a bit over Megyn.

TXUS on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

Good job! You had Rush squirming a bit over Megyn.

TXUS on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

LOL he still won’t call her a hack.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:48 PM

I’m not a Paul supporter, so it doesn’t matter to me if you don’t like him. haha. (to be fair, I think a lot (not all) of hardcore supporters of all the candidates this time of year start to get a bad attitude!)

I was just curious what you disliked about his economic policies.

SquireB on February 1, 2016 at 2:43 PM

I understand, I just wanted it known where I stand on Ronulans, never thought you were one just saying. First Ronulan I ever encountered a was a racist, anti-semetic, 9/11 Truther who saw Jewish Illuminati conspiracies everywhere…and couldn’t stop signing the praises of this obscure congressman from Texas.

Not the best first impression for any candidate.

Rogue on February 1, 2016 at 2:48 PM

Will Allah, Ed and Taylor still be pumping Rubio in Iowa at midnight tonight? They will move on to pumping him in Iowa, SC and beyond, even after he has been whipped like a rented mule.

they lie on February 1, 2016 at 2:49 PM

Thanks man.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

That was you?

Very, very well done!

mjbrooks3 on February 1, 2016 at 2:49 PM

Thanks man.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

You have a good voice for radio!

portlandon on February 1, 2016 at 2:50 PM

OK got on with Rush. He said he made the comment about Megyn not being a bad person in a very personal sense, not to be confused with her professional job. I also talked to him about Trump converting to conservative policies and the attacks he gets from the conservative media calling him a liar for saying he converted.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

Good Call. You had Rush filibustering pretty hard.

TheMadHessian on February 1, 2016 at 2:51 PM

LOL he still won’t call her a hack.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:48 PM

Can’t wait to hear it all, but in Rush’s defense, he did say last week that Kelly was a guest at his wedding so she’s a personal friend.

Rogue on February 1, 2016 at 2:51 PM

Thanks guys.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:53 PM

Low Energy?

everdiso on February 1, 2016 at 2:55 PM

OK got on with Rush. He said he made the comment about Megyn not being a bad person in a very personal sense, not to be confused with her professional job. I also talked to him about Trump converting to conservative policies and the attacks he gets from the conservative media calling him a liar for saying he converted.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

I loved your second question!

MissMarple on February 1, 2016 at 2:58 PM

Can you imagine the explosion that will come out of the Trumpettes if somehow Rubio beats Trump?

Schad, Foss, Red, Gary, Bishop and the rest ma have a complete breakdown.

Tater Salad on February 1, 2016 at 3:02 PM

Rubio fans want to invade Yemen and save their Arabian masters.

Can anyone tell me the difference between Rubio and McCain?

We also know Rubio would “fight” those wars in the Bush/McCain fashion of “winning hearts and minds”. That means putting American troops out there to die without any hope of actually fighting and winning the war.

Not mention he wants to them lets lots of Muslims into the U.S. from places like Syria, Iraq and Yemen. At the same time we are fighting there! That some brilliant crap! We did we not do that in WWII? What about the Cold War?

Alt-History: It is 1955 and we decided we needed more Marxist in America so we can have cheap labor and feel PC about America…YEA!

If Rubio comes back then I don’t think this country deserves to live. We might as well call it day…feel sorry for those in uniform that they will die n some Muslim h$llhole led by Merry Marco. I am sure his supporters will have excuses, like they had for Bush, for why Muslims are not voting the right way and using their new freedom correctly.

William Eaton on February 1, 2016 at 3:02 PM

Can you imagine the explosion that will come out of the Trumpettes if somehow Rubio beats Trump?

Schad, Foss, Red, Gary, Bishop and the rest ma have a complete breakdown.

Tater Salad on February 1, 2016 at 3:02 PM

Nah, Iowa means nothing except as a notch in the belt. Trump has this whole thing locked up regardless.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 3:10 PM

a complete breakdown.

Tater Salad on February 1, 2016 at 3:02 PM

The rest of us have functioning brains.

Schadenfreude on February 1, 2016 at 3:10 PM

Not only do many populists dismiss Rubio as Mr. Insider

And then those populists flock to Trump who proudly proclaims himself as Mr. Insider – the guy who can make deals.

Populists are stupid.

PackerBronco on February 1, 2016 at 3:11 PM

Fugging ditz, for you.

The Nation is for Sanders, you commie morons.

Schadenfreude on February 1, 2016 at 3:12 PM

I won’t predict who will win …

but … I do predict that if Trump doesn’t win, within a few hours he’ll insult the people of Iowa calling them in so many words “hicks” and proclaim that it doesn’t matter what people from that little state think or do.

PackerBronco on February 1, 2016 at 3:13 PM

The HA spudnut is not only a dummy, but also is a yuuuuge racist too.

Schadenfreude on February 1, 2016 at 3:13 PM

Rogue,

If it helps, you should know that I was never a Ronulan. I think Rand is a far more reasonable candidate than his father ever was.

Also, it seems like most of the fedora-wearing, illuminati-fearing kind of supporters that Ron had are actually supporting Trump this time around. That crowd thinks that Rand “sold out to the establishment.”

Those ones were never real libertarians. They’re just anti-establishmentarians.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 3:13 PM

Can you imagine the explosion that will come out of the Trumpettes if somehow Rubio beats Trump?

Schad, Foss, Red, Gary, Bishop and the rest ma have a complete breakdown.

Tater Salad on February 1, 2016 at 3:02 PM

No, you and the pro-amnesty GOPe team will be besides yourselves crying tears of joy, the pro-American anti-GOPe faction on the other hand will be disappointed but become even more focused on stopping amnesty brothers Rubio and Jeb!.

If your scenario plays out there will be 3000 comments on the thread within 6 minutes of it being posted, all from delirious anti-Trumpers who are like a powder keg ready to explode after all these months.

Hopefully for the readers’ sake, and for the sake of the nation, such a scenario will not play out.

Redstone on February 1, 2016 at 3:15 PM

proclaim that it doesn’t matter what people from that little state think or do.

PackerBronco on February 1, 2016 at 3:13 PM

It sorta doesn’t, in terms of primary elections.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 3:16 PM

but … I do predict that if Trump doesn’t win, within a few hours he’ll insult the people of Iowa calling them in so many words “hicks” and proclaim that it doesn’t matter what people from that little state think or do.

PackerBronco on February 1, 2016 at 3:13 PM

What all of the anti-Trumpers are hoping for is some sort of twitter meltdown.

Redstone on February 1, 2016 at 3:17 PM

Also Rogue,

Did you know that Trump himself is a 9/11 truther? I’m not lying-look it up!

No anti-establishment theory is too crazy for Trump.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 3:19 PM

Lol!! Tater now a rubio supporter. Thought you were the one who said all polls are meaningless. Oops, thats right. Its just the polls that have trump far ahead that you think are meaningless……idiot!

Indiana Jim on February 1, 2016 at 3:21 PM

Rogue,

If it helps, you should know that I was never a Ronulan. I think Rand is a far more reasonable candidate than his father ever was.

Also, it seems like most of the fedora-wearing, illuminati-fearing kind of supporters that Ron had are actually supporting Trump this time around. That crowd thinks that Rand “sold out to the establishment.”

Those ones were never real libertarians. They’re just anti-establishmentarians.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 3:13 PM

Oh he’s better at disguising his crazy, that I’ll agree with you. You just have the misfortune of paying for the crimes of all your Paul predecessors

And that Ronulan I mentioned? He’s feeling the Bern. Hates bankers cause they’re all owned by Israel *rolls eyes*

Rogue on February 1, 2016 at 3:21 PM

Also Rogue,

Did you know that Trump himself is a 9/11 truther? I’m not lying-look it up!

No anti-establishment theory is too crazy for Trump.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 3:19 PM

And Trump was also a Birther, what’s your point? I’m a Cruz supporter. I’ll take Trump if he’s the nominee cause above all else, Trump loves America…and what it can do for him, rising tide.

Rogue on February 1, 2016 at 3:23 PM

It is difficult to fathom how anyone could support Rubio. Even more difficult to understand is how a Cruz supporter could have Rubio as his second choice. It just boggles the mind.

besser tot als rot on February 1, 2016 at 3:36 PM

I’m sorry, but TBSchemer is funny.

I can always count on a laugh when he posts.

Barred on February 1, 2016 at 3:40 PM

I’m sorry, but TBSchemer is funny.

I can always count on a laugh when he posts.

Barred on February 1, 2016 at 3:40 PM

You know what else is good for a laugh? Donald Trump’s beliefs about vaccines.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 4:52 PM

And Trump was also a Birther, what’s your point? I’m a Cruz supporter. I’ll take Trump if he’s the nominee cause above all else, Trump loves America…and what it can do for him, rising tide.

Rogue on February 1, 2016 at 3:23 PM

Ah, okay. I can have respect for the Cruz supporters, even if I disagree with them on some things. But if it comes down to it (and it may not), I hope I can convince you to vote for Paul over Trump.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 4:54 PM

OK got on with Rush. He said he made the comment about Megyn not being a bad person in a very personal sense, not to be confused with her professional job. I also talked to him about Trump converting to conservative policies and the attacks he gets from the conservative media calling him a liar for saying he converted.

fossten on February 1, 2016 at 2:47 PM

Megyn is a Republican. That’s her lens on everything. I was watching a clip of her, wherein she got mad at Trump, because Trump brought up the Muslim ban soon after San Bernadino. Her point was that supposedly, Republicans would be able to use San Bernadino but that Trump mucked it up. Problem is, of course, the Republicans never do anything, other than more surveillance of American citizens, meanwhile the Muslims keep coming in. Trump is right, they have to be banned until we get a grip on things, which will be a while.

Meg needs to understand, some of us are tired of wedge issues and games to get people elected, and then they never do anything.

cimbri on February 1, 2016 at 6:51 PM

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