Final Iowa Q-poll: Trump, Sanders up thanks to first-timers

posted at 8:41 am on February 1, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

With just hours to go before Iowa voters go to their caucuses, the final poll from Quinnipiac shows little change in either party. Donald Trump still leads the GOP race with 31%, the same as the Q-poll from the week before, but Ted Cruz has dropped five points to 24%, while Marco Rubio has gained four points to 17%. Bernie Sanders still clings to a three-point edge over Hillary Clinton among Democrats. But the key for both Trump and Sanders still remains how many first-time caucus-goers they can turn out tonight:

Fueled by a big lead among first-time Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, Donald Trump jumps to a 31 – 24 percent lead over Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has 17 percent, with Dr. Ben Carson at 8 percent and no other candidate above 4 percent. …

Also relying on first-time Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 49 percent, with 46 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 3 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Only 2 percent remain undecided and 14 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

The key for both Trump and Sanders is first-time caucus goers:

  • Trump leads Cruz 40 – 22 percent among these first-timers, while Republicans who attended prior caucuses go 26 percent for Cruz and 25 percent for Trump;
  • Sanders tops Clinton 62 – 35 percent among Democratic first-timers, while Clinton leads 52 – 41 percent among voters who attended prior caucuses;
  • 44 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats say this is their first caucus.

One thing can be determined for certain: Iowans will be delighted to stop getting phone calls from pollster after tonight. Bear that in mind as the caucuses approach today, too. There has been a deluge of pollsters on this small population, and there are serious questions being raised about how good their samples have been as people have rejected phone-survey calls at record rates over the last few years.

Assuming that the data’s relatively solid (and Quinnipiac has a pretty good reputation), the next question is turnout. Both Sanders and Trump are riding high on anti-establishment populism and finding new voters to pull into their coalitions more than they are winning the reliable cycle-to-cycle voters. That new-voter engagement will be good news for them (and their parties) assuming they actually turn out to vote. Sanders has spent the money in Iowa to find and motivate these voters to caucus, but Hillary has funded a large ground organization, too. The race is close enough between the two in this poll that Sanders has to squeeze every voter he can find, especially because the drop-off is so dramatic:

qpoll1

Trump’s lead is stronger, but the drop-off is almost as dramatic:

qpoll2

Ann Selzer, who runs the Des Moines Register poll, explains why ground organization matters when it comes to caucusing. She also sees a swell of enthusiasm among younger voters for Sanders, and also among “nones” — those with little or no religious affiliation. Will that also be true on the Republican side? Doubtful, but Selzer’s right about Cruz and Rubio surrogates working the caucuses to get those supporting marginal candidates to throw in with them against Trump. If Trump’s ground game isn’t strong, those same efforts might also sap his own numbers. The Q-poll shows Trump voters with the highest commitment level of the three candidates, but a caucus-night push could change his numbers more if Trump doesn’t have enough organizational strength.

Update: Is Marcomentum real?

Perhaps, but that may be an argument to watch for a surprise in New Hampshire. One thing’s for sure: A third-place finish in Iowa won’t be bad news for Rubio as long as he’s close enough to the leaders, but a bronze medal would be bad news for Ted Cruz.


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Comments

Repost from the headlines:

I’m hoping for Christie to make a last-minute surge and beat Rubio. If we can knock Jeb/Rubio/Kasich out of the running early on, I can probably stomach whoever the nominee ends up being.

For all his negative traits, Christie is at least feistier than Romney ever was. Besides, it’s been too long since we had a fat guy in the White House. Taft, I think.

Buckshot Bill on February 1, 2016 at 8:42 AM

Buckshot Bill on February 1, 2016 at 8:46 AM

It’s Iowa. There aren’t going to be that many without religious affiliation. Come on.

BlameAmericaLast on February 1, 2016 at 8:48 AM

Bernie!

libfreeordie on February 1, 2016 at 8:51 AM

Buckshot Bill on February 1, 2016 at 8:46 AM

We need a bunch of them to give up after tonight. All they’re doing is muddying the split among the realistic contenders.

IA has thrown curve balls in the past, if any of the wannabes have any hope, it has to come tonight. Santorum, Kasich, Christie, Fiorina… this is it. Christie may have some hope for NH, but that would have to be it for him.

I’d like to see Rand Paul do well tonight. I’ve been supporting Cruz, but Rand brings some clarity on liberty and budgetary issues that I’d like to see discussed more. Unfortunately, I don’t see the 2%-candidate supporters falling to him.

mankai on February 1, 2016 at 8:52 AM

Des Moines Register [email protected] 14h14 hours ago

You’re gonna want to bookmark this:

Check out the county-by-county and candidate results live on Monday night! http://dmreg.co/1Tvnf1d
======================================

Caucus Results

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/results/index.php?hootPostID=5a30c38f2b664cf0b8439783a70ec762

https://twitter.com/DMRegister

canopfor on February 1, 2016 at 8:53 AM

Carville claims the Hillary Camp has an arsenal to unleash on Trump (if he be the nominee) Really Hillary a montage of sound bites we have already seen over and over for the past 7 months is going to make a difference. Do these people ever learn!

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 8:53 AM

Bernie!

libfreeordie on February 1, 2016 at 8:51 AM

Economic illiteracy!

Rape fantasies!

Historical nonsense!

Old white guys!

Failed health programs!

Insolvency!

Unicorns!

mankai on February 1, 2016 at 8:55 AM

Carville claims the Hillary Camp has an arsenal to unleash on Trump (if he be the nominee) Really Hillary a montage of sound bites we have already seen over and over for the past 7 months is going to make a difference. Do these people ever learn!

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 8:53 AM

And that’s nothing compared to the HELL Trump can unleash on Her Royal Indictedness.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 8:55 AM

If Trump’s ground game isn’t strong, those same efforts might also sap his own numbers. The Q-poll shows Trump voters with the highest commitment level of the three candidates, but a caucus-night push could change his numbers more if Trump doesn’t have enough organizational strength.

Yes, Trump has a ground game. The claims that he doesn’t seem more like angry MSM reporters making up stories since they were denied access, and dishonest/hostile conservative media trying to rally the troops for Cruz and wishcast Trump away.

Laudner, Trump’s top Iowa official who in 2012 led former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum to a surprise victory in the caucuses, has largely kept the Trump campaign’s ground game efforts in Iowa a secret. But a little over a week ago in Winterset, Iowa, at the John Wayne birthplace when the Wayne family endorsed Trump for president in the iconic film actor’s birthplace museum, Trump was asked by a reporter during the subsequent press conference about his ground game and brought Laudner on stage with him.

Laudner added that there is a conscientious decision by the Trump organization to not broadcast its ground game efforts. Very much like businessman hiding trade secrets from his competitors, Trump is purposely not telling the press—like politicians regularly do when they build a successful organization and routinely run to the press to brag about it—about his ground game machine.

“We don’t advertise our caucus trainings and we generally don’t let you folks [the media] in because we’re working and it’s not about you, it’s about ground game,” Laudner said then. “We’ve had just in the last week 13 caucus trainings.”

Trump’s ground game looks like it should be fine.

Update: Is Marcomentum real?

No. What you’re seeing Cruz deteriorating, not Rubio surging.

Doomberg on February 1, 2016 at 8:56 AM

Bernie!

libfreeordie on February 1, 2016 at 8:51 AM

Because it’s about time the Democrats admitted to being Marxist Socialists.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 8:56 AM

Carville claims the Hillary Camp has an arsenal to unleash on Trump (if he be the nominee)

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 8:53 AM

Bill Clinton and Trump have the same sleazy friends. So it should get interesting.

kcewa on February 1, 2016 at 8:57 AM

Because it’s about time the Democrats admitted to being Marxist Socialists.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 8:56 AM

National Socialists vs. Marxist Socialists. It’s 1932!

kcewa on February 1, 2016 at 8:59 AM

Caucus Results

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/results/index.php?hootPostID=5a30c38f2b664cf0b8439783a70ec762

https://twitter.com/DMRegister

canopfor on February 1, 2016 at 8:53 AM

Thanks!

katy the mean old lady on February 1, 2016 at 9:00 AM

No. What you’re seeing Cruz deteriorating, not Rubio surging.

Doomberg on February 1, 2016 at 8:56 AM

Yeah, Cruz has become the latest flare star in the primary, to blow up to #2, then fade out.

Like Carson and Fiorina did earlier.

Like ¡Jeb! has never.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:00 AM

National Socialists vs. Marxist Socialists. It’s 1932!

kcewa on February 1, 2016 at 8:59 AM

I call them Democrat Socialists. But what all Socialists have in common is they want to separate the citizen from the fruits of their own labor and property…

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:02 AM

If Trump’s ground game isn’t strong

It isn’t.

https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/694042686781681664

@SteveDeaceShow I live in Johnston. I’ve seen Carly people, Bernie, Hillary, Rubio, & Cruz. No Trump. None.

///

Steve Deace [email protected]
People from other campaigns have told me this in recent days as well.

mudskipper on February 1, 2016 at 9:05 AM

‘Toon of the Day: Speaking Of A Lack Of Diversity

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 9:07 AM

Feel the “Bern” on your big butt cheeks Hillary, your about to get run over.

Marcus Traianus on February 1, 2016 at 9:07 AM

Bernie!

libfreeordie on February 1, 2016 at 8:51 AM

#DemocraticCandidatesSoWhite

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 9:10 AM

Bernie!

libfreeordie on February 1, 2016 at 8:51 AM

A first, I agree with you. Bernie is the true face of the Democrat party and needs to bring the party out of the closet.

tej on February 1, 2016 at 9:12 AM

the weather is going to be a big factor, that and… work.

Think on it, established people can easily take a day off, new hires are less likely to be able to do so. Fatigue, and other factors means there is going to be less new kids voting than their desire to vote.

I call this for Ted Cruz by 1-2%. I also think Rubio for sure gets 3rd or worse.

OregonPolitician on February 1, 2016 at 9:13 AM

Regarding Rubio,

Regarding expectations,

if he finished below 15%, he’s finished.

mjbrooks3 on February 1, 2016 at 9:14 AM

kcewa Trump the businessman has “working” friends and acquaintances because he has actually been WORKING! Bill on the other hand is out soliciting donations from “so called” friends..Any working man providing jobs and boosting the economy is what is good about America, sleazy is so passe to describe Trump

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 9:15 AM

If Trump’s ground game isn’t strong

The real question is this: How will Trump’s supporters behave at the caucuses? It they act like they do at his rallies and boo and heckle anyone who disagrees that will not go over well. Undecided’s will decide against him.

kcewa on February 1, 2016 at 9:15 AM

I so want Bernie to win.

Pleeeeeease.

And the GOPe better ready their crying towels and fainting couches.

artist on February 1, 2016 at 9:16 AM

Polls released on the day of voting are only of interest to other pollsters. And then only as it applies to the next election.

Assuming that the data’s relatively solid (and Quinnipiac has a pretty good reputation), the next question is turnout.

“Assuming that the data’s relatively solid . . .” Is this trying to say “assuming there’s any accuracy to the poll”?

Assuming that the data’s relatively solid (and Quinnipiac has a pretty good reputation), the next question is turnout.

No, that’s not the next question. The “next” question is the poll numbers released in the morning (if not sooner). There’s where it all becomes extremely accurate.

Lolo on February 1, 2016 at 9:16 AM

kcewa Trump the businessman has “working” friends and acquaintances because he has actually been WORKING! Bill on the other hand is out soliciting donations from “so called” friends..Any working man providing jobs and boosting the economy is what is good about America, sleazy is so passe to describe Trump

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 9:15 AM

I’m talking about the friends they play with.

kcewa on February 1, 2016 at 9:17 AM

OT but really cool. Riding bus home in west Dallas. Looked out window at the Trinity River and saw an honest to God bald eagle perched in a tree over the water.

Random Numbers (Brian Epps) on February 1, 2016 at 9:17 AM

POLLS!

gerrym51 on February 1, 2016 at 9:21 AM

Bernie!

libfreeordie on February 1, 2016 at 8:51 AM

The perfect handouts at Bernie affairs – The Bernie Beanie! A unicorn logo on the front and a propeller on top. Thar’s gold in them thar stuff.

vnvet on February 1, 2016 at 9:22 AM

Yeah, Cruz has become the latest flare star in the primary, to blow up to #2, then fade out.

Like Carson and Fiorina did earlier.

Like ¡Jeb! has never.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:00 AM

Sorry howler, you all are writing Cruz’s obituary way too early. Your filthy stupid candidate will blow himself up by simply opening his mouth. And, should the KHM get the nomination, the moron will not be able to stand it when the MSM abandons him for the Dem nominee. His vocabulary will be reduced to “stupid,” “loser,” and like two syllable insults. In short, Tramp’s biggest problem is really his own big mouth and lack of any understanding of government.

Happy Nomad on February 1, 2016 at 9:22 AM

OT but really cool. Riding bus home in west Dallas. Looked out window at the Trinity River and saw an honest to God bald eagle perched in a tree over the water.

Random Numbers (Brian Epps) on February 1, 2016 at 9:17 AM

I almost ran over one just yesterday. Never knew they ate roadkill; I thought they were purely predatory, not scavengers.

Buckshot Bill on February 1, 2016 at 9:22 AM

OT but really cool. Riding bus home in west Dallas. Looked out window at the Trinity River and saw an honest to God bald eagle perched in a tree over the water.

Random Numbers (Brian Epps) on February 1, 2016 at 9:17 AM

The Age of Obama is coming to an end.

Just think, we can SAFELY ignore this whiny little punk in 353 more days!

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:23 AM

I almost ran over one just yesterday. Never knew they ate roadkill; I thought they were purely predatory, not scavengers.

Buckshot Bill on February 1, 2016 at 9:22 AM

Eagles are buzzards with better press :)

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:24 AM

kcewa You can say the exact same about the DC crowd. Love how they fight on the House and Senate floor and then run over to have lunch and plot their bi-partisan bs despite what the people want. It’s the same thing all around. It’s really down to who will actually fight for the people. All the personality stuff is not relevant.

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 9:25 AM

Sorry howler, you all are writing Cruz’s obituary way too early. Your filthy stupid candidate will blow himself up by simply opening his mouth. And, should the KHM get the nomination, the moron will not be able to stand it when the MSM abandons him for the Dem nominee. His vocabulary will be reduced to “stupid,” “loser,” and like two syllable insults. In short, Tramp’s biggest problem is really his own big mouth and lack of any understanding of government.

Happy Nomad on February 1, 2016 at 9:22 AM

You mean like the example you just made of yourself?

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:25 AM

kcewa You can say the exact same about the DC crowd. Love how they fight on the House and Senate floor and then run over to have lunch and plot their bi-partisan bs despite what the people want. It’s the same thing all around. It’s really down to who will actually fight for the people. All the personality stuff is not relevant.

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 9:25 AM

People aren’t elected to go to DC to fraternize with the other side. They are sent to represent their CONSTITUENTS, namely the People of their State or their District.

Which has become such an alien concept in DC that it’s very likely going to take a Revolution to re-instill…

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Well Constantine..Welcome To The Revolution!

justonevictory on February 1, 2016 at 9:28 AM

You mean like the example you just made of yourself?

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:25 AM

Sorry howler, I figured out long ago that actually discussing the candidates with those of your ilk is a worthless endeavor. You’re so invested in shouting down anybody who is critical of your filthy candidate that you do nothing but launch insane rants like the one above. Hopefully, with time and the elections behind us, you disgusting ignorant asses will turn into human beings again. But until then go away.

Happy Nomad on February 1, 2016 at 9:32 AM

I guess it’s time for predictions.

I’m just going to say flat out that I think the people predicting a Cruz victory are wrong. There’s no real evidence at all that Cruz is going to overperform and that Trump is going to underperform. All the polls show Cruz deteriorating and Trump well ahead. For the last week, we’ve seen articles where people working for the Cruz campaign are saying “Second place is just fine!” and they’ve been focusing attacks on Rubio.

All actual tea leaves are pointing to Trump 1st, Cruz second, Rubio 3rd.

My prediction is the final Selzer poll results will reflect the actual voting outcome almost exactly. The Cruz supporters who really believe the polls are wrong are wishcasting and praying for a miracle, and are in for a Romney 2012 style disappointment.

Doomberg on February 1, 2016 at 9:33 AM

anyone catch the clip of Hillary lying (again ) about guy explaining the email stuff with changing speed limits? Think it was on Meggy last night.

rik on February 1, 2016 at 9:36 AM

Sorry howler, I figured out long ago that actually discussing the candidates with those of your ilk is a worthless endeavor. You’re so invested in shouting down anybody who is critical of your filthy candidate that you do nothing but launch insane rants like the one above. Hopefully, with time and the elections behind us, you disgusting ignorant asses will turn into human beings again. But until then go away.

Happy Nomad on February 1, 2016 at 9:32 AM

The Boss Emeritus has the word for you: UNHINGED.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:38 AM

OT but really cool. Riding bus home in west Dallas. Looked out window at the Trinity River and saw an honest to God bald eagle perched in a tree over the water.

Random Numbers (Brian Epps) on February 1, 2016 at 9:17 AM

Pretty sure that’s a milk loving buzzard

rik on February 1, 2016 at 9:38 AM

A Trump/Killary slugfest would be of epic proportions. The baggage spewing forth from both their closets would turn the nation’s stomachs. I’ve bought an extra large bottle of Tums, just in case.

vnvet on February 1, 2016 at 9:40 AM

Sorry howler, I figured out long ago that actually discussing the candidates with those of your ilk is a worthless endeavor. You’re so invested in shouting down anybody who is critical of your filthy candidate that you do nothing but launch insane rants like the one above. Hopefully, with time and the elections behind us, you disgusting ignorant asses will turn into human beings again. But until then go away.

Happy Nomad on February 1, 2016 at 9:32 AM

The most ironic post ever.

Hopefully Rubio does poorly.

Redstone on February 1, 2016 at 9:41 AM

I see the ‘Rubio Surge’ marching orders went out early today.

TheMadHessian on February 1, 2016 at 9:47 AM

A third-place finish in Iowa won’t be bad news for Rubio as long as he’s close enough to the leaders, but a bronze medal would be bad news for Ted Cruz.

Why? Are you saying that other voters in other states will say that Iowans are so very smart that I need to vote like they do? Is there “momentum” because voters are sheep?

Vince on February 1, 2016 at 9:48 AM

Of course Trump’s supporters will show.

The real question is whether Ted’s will. Given his missteps over the past week, I wouldn’t be surprised if many supporters stay home, and Rubio nips him at the end for second.

will77jeff on February 1, 2016 at 9:54 AM

I live in NH. Get a poll call everyday. Most of the time I hang up (they love to call during dinner) but occasionally I’ll do one in which case I lie on every question.

crowhop on February 1, 2016 at 10:13 AM

The Boss Emeritus has the word for you: UNHINGED.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:38 AM

I assume by Boss Emeritus you are referring to Michelle Malkin.

#1

Andrew Breitbart and Michelle Malkin warned conservatives about The Donald

But people were sounding the warning bells back when Trump was last threatening a presidential bid in 2011. Among them was the now-deceased Andrew Breitbart. Here is what he had to say:

Of course, he’s not a conservative. He was for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), before he was against Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)…celebrity is everything in this country if these guys don’t learn how to play the media the way Barack Obama played the media last election cycle and the way that Donald Trump is playing the election cycle–we’re going to probably get a celebrity candidate.

Ironically, the Breitbart website has seemingly been the online driving force behind Trump’s candidacy. Andrew Breitbart, if he were still alive, would have never allowed that to happen.

Michelle Malkin has had a very public feud with Trump going back to 2011 as well…and it has continued. She wrote a devastating column about “Donald Trump’s eminent-domain empire.”

Trump has attempted to use the same tactics in Connecticut and has championed the reviled Kelo vs. City of New London Supreme Court ruling upholding expansive use of eminent domain. He told Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto that he agreed with the ruling “100 percent” and defended the chilling power of government to kick people out of their homes and businesses based on arbitrary determinations:

“The fact is, if you have a person living in an area that’s not even necessarily a good area, and government, whether it’s local or whatever, government wants to build a tremendous economic development, where a lot of people are going to be put to work and make (an) area that’s not good into a good area, and move the person that’s living there into a better place — now, I know it might not be their choice — but move the person to a better place and yet create thousands upon thousands of jobs and beautification and lots of other things, I think it happens to be good.”

Like most statist promises of bountiful job creation, government-engineered redevelopment math rarely adds up. Trump’s corporations have backed casino industry bailouts and wealth-redistributing “tax-increment financing” schemes — the very kind of taxpayer-subsidized interventions we’ve seen on a grand scale under the Obama administration.

Undoubtedly, hardcore Trump supporters will read this piece and add Breitbart and Malkin to their hate lists.

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 10:15 AM

I’m hoping for a Trump Iowa victory but let’s face it, it’s overrated. The day after, people start talking about NH. Florida is the biggie, that’s what got Romney the nomination.

cimbri on February 1, 2016 at 10:18 AM

Sorry howler, I figured out long ago that actually discussing the candidates with those of your ilk is a worthless endeavor. You’re so invested in shouting down anybody who is critical of your filthy candidate that you do nothing but launch insane rants like the one above. Hopefully, with time and the elections behind us, you disgusting ignorant asses will turn into human beings again. But until then go away.

Happy Nomad on February 1, 2016 at 9:32 AM

Look, AP, are we going to get a post out of you today, or are you just going to rant in the comments?

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 10:30 AM

The Boss Emeritus has the word for you: UNHINGED.

ConstantineXI on February 1, 2016 at 9:38 AM

I assume by Boss Emeritus you are referring to Michelle Malkin.

#2

Michelle Malkin ✔ @michellemalkin

Here’s something about @realDonaldTrump: He supports Kelo, cheered socialized medicine, smeared “my past” & called me a dummy. #phony

1:17 PM – 21 Mar 2013

Michelle Malkin ✔ @michellemalkin

Still waiting for coward @realDonaldTrump to tell me what in my “past” I should be ashamed of. #SmearMerchant

1:24 PM – 21 Mar 2013

Michelle Malkin ✔ @michellemalkin

So @realDonaldTrump just called me a dummy again for exposing him as a conservafraud. Keep digging, clown==>

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/315102933190598656

9:13 AM – 22 Mar 2013

Michelle Malkin ✔ @michellemalkin

.@realDonaldTrump Your water-carriers tried to get me to shut up. They failed. You don’t like women you can’t control. God bless America.

9:15 AM – 22 Mar 2013

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump

.@MichelleMalkin would be nothing without being on the @seanhannity show. I don’t see what Sean sees in her—loser!

12:50 PM – 22 Mar 2013

Donald J. Trump Verified account
[email protected]

@michellemalkin At least dummy is true!

10:09 AM – 22 Mar 2013

Donald J. Trump Verified account
[email protected]

@michellemalkin You were born stupid!

10:10 AM – 22 Mar 2013

When Trump was still on his birther kick, Malkin bashed him on “Fox and Friends,” saying, “Donald Trump has built his entire empire in defiance of core Tea Party principles,” such as his frequent partnerships with government on real estate projects. “It’s time for those conservatives who’ve been flirting with Donald Trump to get serious themselves.”

Constantine, how long before Malkin joins Megyn Kelly in the Trumpster Divers’ ‘Slut Club’?

Frankly, I have seen people banned for much, much, much less than calling a woman a slut.

I am not saying that you have called anyone such, but you know that many have. I can’t wait to see how fast the banhammer comes down on any poster that makes the foolish mistake of calling the Boss Emeritus the same names that they have been calling Megyn Kelly. (Full disclosure: I have defended Trump in many of the ridiculous Trump-Kelly contretemps, but not all.)

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 10:33 AM

My prediction is the final Selzer poll results will reflect the actual voting outcome almost exactly. The Cruz supporters who really believe the polls are wrong are wishcasting and praying for a miracle, and are in for a Romney 2012 style disappointment.

Doomberg on February 1, 2016 at 9:33 AM

Seltzer missed Santorum’s 2012 win, which is a big deal considering the guy who orchestrated that strategy is working for Trump.

I’ve been consistently predicting Trump by five. Now that the polls have confirmed that prediction, I’m saying it’s going to be closer to 10.

Also, I think Rand Paul is going to shock everyone with a decent placement.

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 10:36 AM

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 10:33 AM

Not only are you soiling yourself now, you are rolling around in your own waste.

Michelle Malkin 2015:

“I completely understand why so many of my friends have thrown in with Donald Trump despite what I think should be some underlying real concerns and suspicions about where his instincts are and where his gut is,” she told TheBlaze.

“If I had to choose between Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton I wouldn’t have any hesitation pulling the lever for Donald Trump,” she added later in the interview.

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 10:38 AM

Message to all Trump supporters from the Boss Emeritus, Michelle Malkin:

‘Donald Trump is a Big Government Fraudster.’

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 10:41 AM

“If I had to choose between Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton I wouldn’t have any hesitation pulling the lever for Donald Trump,” she added later in the interview.

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 10:38 AM

So would I.

I’d rather need 10 root canals than breast cancer or total organ failure.

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 10:44 AM

I’ve been consistently predicting Trump by five. Now that the polls have confirmed that prediction, I’m saying it’s going to be closer to 10.

Also, I think Rand Paul is going to shock everyone with a decent placement.

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 10:36 AM

Trump 10+ and Rand muscling his way up to third or even second is pretty much my dream scenario!

I’m hoping for a Trump Iowa victory but let’s face it, it’s overrated. The day after, people start talking about NH. Florida is the biggie, that’s what got Romney the nomination.

cimbri on February 1, 2016 at 10:18 AM

Cruz has staked everything on Iowa. If he loses there (especially if there is a Trump blowout) his campaign is over.

Furthermore, most of the empty arguments presented about “why Trump can’t win Iowa” won’t apply in New Hampshire if he wins. Arguments about “ground game” will be quieted and Trump’s polling indicates he’s way ahead in NH. Even Rubio supporters will have a hard time convincing people a Rubio win is about to happen there.

I just expect a lot of sour grapes from anti-Trumpers at that point and lots of despairing posts from Hot Air about how Trump will never beat Hillary/Bernie.

Doomberg on February 1, 2016 at 10:51 AM

mudskipper on February 1, 2016 at 9:05 AM

Betting on Steve Deace being right is never wise. He came out and was screaming about the Ted Cruz intimidation mailers being fake and the story manufactured, before eating a large amount of crow a few hours later.

NWConservative on February 1, 2016 at 11:46 AM

Betting on Steve Deace being right is never wise. He came out and was screaming about the Ted Cruz intimidation mailers being fake and the story manufactured, before eating a large amount of crow a few hours later.

NWConservative on February 1, 2016 at 11:46 AM

Steve Deace is a Cruz shill. It’s like quoting Glenn Beck or Steve King.

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 11:52 AM

Any idea what time tonight the Cornbats will finish deciding?

Meremortal on February 1, 2016 at 12:14 PM

I almost ran over one just yesterday. Never knew they ate roadkill; I thought they were purely predatory, not scavengers.

Buckshot Bill on February 1, 2016 at 9:22 AM

We have some that live around here. They hunt, mostly over water, and they scavenge at every opportunity. There was one on a kill back behind the house the other day. Might be a mountain lion kill, according to a local observer.

Meremortal on February 1, 2016 at 12:22 PM

Holy sh*t, Paul hit 9% in one of the last-minute polls.

TBSchemer on February 1, 2016 at 12:31 PM

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 10:33 AM

Not only are you soiling yourself now, you are rolling around in your own waste.

Michelle Malkin 2015:

“I completely understand why so many of my friends have thrown in with Donald Trump despite what I think should be some underlying real concerns and suspicions about where his instincts are and where his gut is,” she told TheBlaze.

“If I had to choose between Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton I wouldn’t have any hesitation pulling the lever for Donald Trump,” she added later in the interview.

Joseph K on February 1, 2016 at 10:38 AM

Notice the candidates she left out. Why don’t you ask her if she would rather vote for Cruz or Trump?

And, like I said, if the choice was between having to undergo 10 root canals, being diagnosed with breast cancer, and having total organ failure, I’d go with the root canals, too.

As for waste, your don’t have to roll around in it. Your very presence is evidence of it.

Lime in the Coconut on February 1, 2016 at 4:34 PM