The final Selzer Iowa poll before the caucus says…

posted at 7:01 pm on January 30, 2016 by Jazz Shaw

The rumors began earlier in the week so everyone was on pins and needles. (And by “everyone” I mean the sad, sad people like us who sit around and obsess over politics while other horrible people are out having actual fun.) Tonight was the night when Ann Selzer would release the final des Moines Register Iowa poll before the caucus. She was rated by Nate Silver as “the best pollster in politics” at one point, but we should still give it a look even though Nate has been wrong about Donald Trump pretty much since the beginning.

But let’s get to the final numbers, shall we? First on the Republican side, I’m sorry to say there’s nothing all that shocking from previous weeks.

Trump 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush/Fiorina/Huck/Kasich/Santorum 2
Not sure 2

Trump had the momentum in the final week but Ted Cruz didn’t plummet nearly as far as some doomsayers were predicting. Credit where due to the inside baseball team members who said they smelled a last minute surge for Rubio. He came on a bit at the end, but if this is where they actually wind up finishing (far from certain since it’s a caucus state) he’s still closer to fourth than second. No other big news here other than the fact that this will likely finish Huckabee. It should finish Santorum, but I somehow doubt he’ll quit until the last dog is hung. The other establishment lane candidates are waiting to punch their tickets in New Hampshire and weren’t expecting all that much anyway.

For the Democrats things get a little more spicy.

Clinton 45% (+3)
Sanders 42% (+2)
O’Malley 3% (-1)

Hillary managed to scramble back into a lead, but it’s within the margin of error so they essentially have a tie on their hands heading into New Hampshire where Bernie is firing on all cylinders. Will this make O’Malley drop out? Unlikely in my opinion, but Clinton has the most to worry about these days anyway. As usual, it will all come down to whether or not Sanders can muster the young folks out to the complicated and messy caucus process in what may turn out to be a snowstorm. We’ll likely be up late for this one on Tuesday. But if Hillary fails to pull it out, she may start getting a creepy, upsetting feeling which is awfully familiar. In fact, one might say it would be a flashback to 2008. (Video from the RNC.)

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“Trump took a gamble on Thursday night, walking away from the last big national moment before the caucuses, after the businessman unsuccessfully tried to persuade Fox to boot co-moderator Megyn Kelly.”

ok thats not what happened ! it was the news release fox put out not megan kelly being the moderator

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-ted-cruz-iowa-218410#ixzz3ymm9qF53

johngalt on January 30, 2016 at 9:39 PM

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/01/the_real_ted_cruz.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#.Vqacc-tvGQc.facebook

Excerpts from American Thinker:

In my own experience, I found Ted to be very easy to work with. I never knew him to tout his own résumé, talk down to anyone, or insist on deference to his position. To the contrary, I knew him to be consistently pleasant, generous with his time, and most importantly, always respectful of others’ views and work-product. I remember, for example, that Ted often dropped into my office to follow up on some comment or idea that I had offered during an earlier task force meeting. Those meetings generally permitted only limited discussion because of the number of people present, and Ted wanted to explore my thinking further. Unlike many persons holding titles in government, it never occurred to Ted that, because of his higher position as head of the task force, protocol would demand that I be called into his office. Such ego-driven attachment to hierarchy never mattered to Ted. To the contrary, he was only interested in getting the best ideas out of the people around him. All in all, I cannot recall a single instance when I did not enjoy interacting with Ted professionally. He not only displayed a consistent winning temperament throughout the time we were together, but did so in a way that drew out the highest quality of professional thinking from those with whom he worked and supervised.

Elisa on January 30, 2016 at 9:53 PM

There is a reason the hashtag #TrusTed is going around so well. You can trust Ted Cruz to do as he says. That matters a LOT to people.

OregonPolitician on January 30, 2016 at 10:01 PM

You guys do realize that the last day of this poll was the 29th, the day of the debate, right? Very likely it would’ve been carried out earlier on in the day too, before the debate proper started. While I can’t speak for how Cruz could be affected, Rubio’s numbers could climb from, what is popularly considered to be, a good debate performance, and Trump could very well sink from having backed out.

I’m pulling for Cruz right now but, given that the poll was this tight even before the debate, I’d say this is anyone’s (anyone being Trump, Rubio and Cruz) game right now.

WealthofNations on January 30, 2016 at 10:10 PM

A word of advice: the trick to being the rational, even tempered guy in the debate is to remain rational and even-tempered when somebody pokes you, and not turn into a rampaging monster.

Joseph K on January 30, 2016 at 8:26 PM

Lols VERY fair point. I was trying to be ecumenical about it, but I occasionally lose my shiite when I see people totally trashing supporters of other candidates. Particularly supporters of one of the best conservatives EVAH to run for President (imho). I dont trash Marco or Trump or other supporters, because I understand why they motivate certain people

I’m jewish so perhaps it’s too much old testament “eye for an eye” values lol.

Good advice though, I generally try and keep my cool and will redouble my efforts. Thanks

Charliecrown on January 30, 2016 at 10:17 PM

You guys do realize that the last day of this poll was the 29th, the day of the debate, right?

WealthofNations on January 30, 2016 at 10:10 PM

The debate was on the 28th.

TheMadHessian on January 30, 2016 at 10:21 PM

The Frank Luntz focus group was plenty of evidence that Rubio was tanking even though FOX was cheerleading for him……

Realdemocrat1 on January 30, 2016 at 10:29 PM

You guys do realize that the last day of this poll was the 29th, the day of the debate, right?

WealthofNations on January 30, 2016 at 10:10 PM

it was thru friday

gerrym51 on January 30, 2016 at 10:32 PM

Not Sure is polling at 2%. It will be 500 years before a Not Sure becomes president.

Rancher on January 30, 2016 at 10:32 PM

@gerrym51

Shit, that’s right. Why did I think the debate was on Friday… hmmm.

Still, it’s a four day survey (26th-29th) that had only one day after the debate. While I was mistaken by one, my point generally still stands: there’s still quite a bit of room for the debate to have shaken things up.

WealthofNations on January 30, 2016 at 10:38 PM

The only nasty guy is Cruz…………So take it and shove it up your azz.

fossten on January 30, 2016 at 7:53 PM

LOL

portlandon on January 30, 2016 at 11:50 PM

Prediction:
Cruz/Rubio/Trump/Paul
(I think the caucus goers might point out a lot of Trump’s creepy aspects which I would think would bring him down some points)

Democrats: What is wrong with you people?
Hillary “Mother of Isis” Clinton, who has committed 1000’s of felonies should not get even 1 vote.

talkingpoints on January 30, 2016 at 11:54 PM

Gentle reminder: DMR/Selzer- in the last cycle- had their their last pre-IA 2012 poll as Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%

michaelo on January 31, 2016 at 12:47 AM

Gentle reminder: DMR/Selzer- in the last cycle- had their their last pre-IA 2012 poll as Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%
michaelo

BUT, if you read deeper you find … in 2012 …

“What makes Santorum’s growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.

In 2016 …

Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.

So in 2012 they DID see Rick coming. As of Friday, Marco wasn’t (at least not yet)

MarkCasper on January 31, 2016 at 5:53 AM

The Carson and Paul people are basically handing the nomination to Trump.

K. Hobbit on January 31, 2016 at 10:29 AM

Go Palin!

huckleberryfriend on January 31, 2016 at 10:33 AM

Will Rubio take a stand against Trump sheathing the Washington Monument in gold mirrors? Will no one stop this madman?

claudius on January 31, 2016 at 12:03 PM

There is a reason the hashtag #TrusTed is going around so well. You can trust Ted Cruz to do as he says. That matters a LOT to people.

OregonPolitician on January 30, 2016 at 10:01 PM

The question is, do I trust Ted Cruz to do what he’s saying now, or to do what he was saying two weeks or two months ago?

JannyMae on January 31, 2016 at 12:24 PM

That’s because AP likes to ban Trump supporters, and some others just left on their own.

fossten on January 30, 2016 at 7:26 PM

Funny, I hardly comment anymore since some of the Trump supporters roll in and sling loads of mud.

jazzuscounty on January 31, 2016 at 2:58 PM

The only nasty guy is Cruz…………So take it and shove it up your azz.

fossten on January 30, 2016 at 7:53 PM

And boom! There it is.

jazzuscounty on January 31, 2016 at 3:01 PM

Fossten, I just read more of the thread and saw the mud thrown on you. I wish that we could be civil when we disagree. I may have to visit American Thinker more often.

jazzuscounty on January 31, 2016 at 3:10 PM

Huffpo has Trump up by 8 as of today. We’ll see tmrw how accurate it is. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-republican-caucus

cimbri on January 31, 2016 at 5:26 PM

All the right people hate Cruz,

What is up with this? That’s going to win the general?

TRUMP 2016!!

NJ Red on January 31, 2016 at 6:08 PM

I like Bing’s predictions

Furthermore, I think once the snowball starts rolling Trump will pick steam up as the primaries unfold.

esnap on January 31, 2016 at 8:19 PM

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