Q4 GDP advance report shows only 0.7% growth

posted at 10:41 am on January 29, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

The US economy finished 2015 with a pratfall, perhaps a foreshadowing of a bumpy ride in 2016. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth tumbled to 0.7% in the advance estimate of the fourth-quarter data, thanks to a decline in consumer spending that outpaced a slowing in the rate of growth in disposable income.

Real gross domestic product — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 5). The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2016. …

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending.

The decline in personal consumption expenditures (PCEs) reflects a fallback on personal income growth, as the slowdown went across the board in Q4 — except in taxes and savings:

Current-dollar personal income increased $137.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.8 billion in the third. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected a downturn in personal interest income and decelerations in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income.

Personal current taxes increased $25.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase
of $22.3 billion in the third.

Disposable personal income increased $111.3 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $168.5 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

The Wall Street Journal notes that institutional investment in the economy weakened considerably, and that a personal consumption slowdown is not the biggest issue:

Friday’s GDP numbers showed inventory investment, trade and business investment were drags on the economy during the fourth quarter. Inventory figures can be volatile and a slowdown there may well ease in the early part of 2016. A decline in net exports, meanwhile, is more a reflection of a strong dollar and overseas developments than domestic demand.

A slowdown in consumer spending and a decline in business investment could be more of a concern. …

Nonresidential fixed investment, a measure of business spending, fell 1.8% in the fourth quarter as companies trimmed outlays on structures and equipment.

Spending in the energy industry has been especially constrained amid low commodity prices–outlays on mining, shafts and wells tumbled 35% during all of 2015, the sharpest drop in nearly three decades.

The AP also worries about this entrée to 2016:

The U.S. economy’s growth slowed sharply in the final three months of 2015 to a 0.7 percent annual rate. Consumers reduced spending, businesses cut back on investment and global problems trimmed exports.

The slowdown could renew doubts about the durability of the 6½-year-old economic expansion.

The government’s estimate Friday of the economy’s expansion in the October-December period was less than half the 2 percent annual growth rate in gross domestic product in the third quarter. It was the weakest showing since a severe winter reduced growth to a 0.6 percent annual rate in last year’s first quarter.

Activity should rebound in the current January-March period, though economists worry that China’s troubles and sinking oil and stock prices could dampen the recovery.

Should it? Why would the AP think that? Two of the last three Q1s have shown remarkably slow growth or outright contraction, usually blamed on either the weather (as above in 2015Q1) or on outdated seasonal adjustment algorithms. We’ve already had one severe weather event in 2016Q1, a blizzard that paralyzed a good section of the Atlantic seaboard, setting up a potential excuse for underperformance when the Q1 GDP report comes out in April. And the winter is still young.

On the other hand, real final sales of domestic product increased 1.2%, outpacing the overall GDP growth rate. That shows that sales may have eaten into inventories, giving some room for a small bounceback in Q1, but that would only take place if consumer demand picks back up. The increase in savings rates while disposable income growth rate slows might be an indicator not to expect a big expansion of demand in Q1.

Some fingers will undoubtedly point back to the Fed on this, given their first interest-rate increase in almost a decade in December. That wouldn’t account for a slowdown in consumer spending, although it might have something to do with a slowdown in business investment. This decline looks more broadly based, and as such more like what we are seeing in the global markets. It looks like a lack of confidence across a wide swath of groups within the US economy.


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Comments

…but…but…JugEars said we are robust and booming!

JugEarsButtHurt on January 29, 2016 at 10:44 AM

Recession…

PatriotRider on January 29, 2016 at 10:44 AM

Revisions will move it into negative territory as most revisions in the last two years have been down.

Summer of recovery IXV…..

Johnnyreb on January 29, 2016 at 10:44 AM

Exactly who is peddling this fiction…

PatriotRider on January 29, 2016 at 10:45 AM

Bank of Japan just went negative with interest rates…this should be fun…

PatriotRider on January 29, 2016 at 10:46 AM

More money printing…QE infinity….

PatriotRider on January 29, 2016 at 10:47 AM

We’ve been stagnating if not in an actual recession since ’08, now comes the Obama Depression.

Rogue on January 29, 2016 at 10:49 AM

BLS = Bureau of Lies and Scams.

Rix on January 29, 2016 at 10:49 AM

Rix on January 29, 2016 at 10:49 AM

This.

All their data is fake.

By the way have you all heard about Zero’s new scam, ObamaSave?

Mandated 401ks.

dogsoldier on January 29, 2016 at 10:52 AM

Well, hell let’s just import as many low skilled workers as we can and raise the minimum wage to $50 an hour, then we’ll have millions of new middle class taxpayers. You guys just don’t see the simple genius of Liberal Economic policies.

trubble on January 29, 2016 at 10:53 AM

Really sick of this “weather” excuse. I’ll vote for the guy who tells the BLS and the Commerce department to stop with the “seasonal adjustment” crap.

Defenestratus on January 29, 2016 at 10:57 AM

Considering how unbelievably cheap gas is right now, the fact that consumer spending is slowing at the same time is BAD, bad news.

Atlantian on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

We should invest more in young adults college education.

WryTrvllr on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

Some fingers will undoubtedly point back to the Fed on this, given their first interest-rate increase in almost a decade in December. That wouldn’t account for a slowdown in consumer spending, although it might have something to do with a slowdown in business investment.

If a .25 point increase, the first in almost 9 nears, would cause businesses to halt investment, the US Economy is screwed.

Johnnyreb on January 29, 2016 at 11:02 AM

Our family of two health insurance costs have risen $389 / month since 2014 and the deductible has surged from $450 to $4000 as well. Assuming health insurance costs are included in the economy you would think it would be booming. Of course that is money going there that could of gone to other spending or investments. Insurance is the biggest budget item by far.

Dasher on January 29, 2016 at 11:06 AM

And The Biggest Contributor To U.S. Growth in 2015 Was?

25% of the growth in US personal consumption expenditures was Healthcare spending (including the DeathCare tax)

ShainS on January 29, 2016 at 11:06 AM

Dasher on January 29, 2016 at 11:06 AM

Jinx.

ShainS on January 29, 2016 at 11:07 AM

We should invest more in young adults college education.

WryTrvllr on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

You can do that on an individual basis, the federal government has no business at all in education.

Dasher on January 29, 2016 at 11:08 AM

Considering how unbelievably cheap gas is right now, the fact that consumer spending is slowing at the same time is BAD, bad news.

Atlantian on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

Not only are gas prices down, but shouldn’t the 4th quarter be a little better than 0.7% GDP because of that little holiday celebrating the birth of some guy whose name escapes me? I thought everyone went shopping that time of year.

Doughboy on January 29, 2016 at 11:08 AM

dogsoldier on January 29, 2016 at 10:52 AM

Mandating 401ks won’t happen.

If they could streamline some rulings on tax free retirement investments – and reduce the reporting costs for smaller businesses who’d like to offer them it would be great.

Zomcon JEM on January 29, 2016 at 11:10 AM

DogEater to announce he’s pivoting to the economy again for the 28th time in 5 .. 4 .. 3 …

ShainS on January 29, 2016 at 11:10 AM

Since “debt is the new currency” surely graduating vast numbers of indentured youths with useless degrees can’t help but improve our consumer economy.

WryTrvllr on January 29, 2016 at 11:11 AM

And The Biggest Contributor To U.S. Growth in 2015 Was?

25% of the growth in US personal consumption expenditures was Healthcare spending (including the DeathCare tax)

ShainS on January 29, 2016 at 11:06 AM

I agree. I has been a nightmare. See my comment just above yours.

Dasher on January 29, 2016 at 11:12 AM

I live near a small city in CA and the weather has been good, etc. Yet room taxes are down and even more telling, sales tax is down, but the economy is in an upswing?

Neitherleftorright on January 29, 2016 at 11:13 AM

Well I do have to take dog #2 to the vet Monday for her annual teeth cleaning and extraction (she’s always had bad teeth, probably why her previous owner dumper her on the street) so there should be an uptick in February expenditures. Meanwhile I’m paying off the towing and new alternator that happened over New Years. What, buying fancy shiny objects? Can’t afford that.

rbj on January 29, 2016 at 11:13 AM

Neitherleftorright on January 29, 2016 at 11:13 AM

It is a tourist destination.

Neitherleftorright on January 29, 2016 at 11:14 AM

Just from what I see in my own little niche in the world…

My January has been great. But, my sales by number are down. If it weren’t for a couple of very large sales, my month would be pretty awful.

For the last couple of years, I’ve been doing great in Europe and Ok in Asia. Scattered stuff in SA, Africa, The ME and SE Asia. My American business has been pretty slow. The last couple of months, that’s flipped. Other than a few small sales, Europe has really slowed down, US sales have gone back to hot. Asia along with most of the rest of the world may as well not even exist.

This stuff worries me.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 11:17 AM

Considering how unbelievably cheap gas is right now, the fact that consumer spending is slowing at the same time is BAD, bad news.

Atlantian on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

Any savings consumers get from the fall in gas prices are just going to the basics (i.e. food, monthly bills) or getting vacuumed up by higher taxes.

Doomberg on January 29, 2016 at 11:18 AM

Just from what I see in my own little niche in the world…

My January has been great. But, my sales by number are down. If it weren’t for a couple of very large sales, my month would be pretty awful.

For the last couple of years, I’ve been doing great in Europe and Ok in Asia. Scattered stuff in SA, Africa, The ME and SE Asia. My American business has been pretty slow. The last couple of months, that’s flipped. Other than a few small sales, Europe has really slowed down, US sales have gone back to hot. Asia along with most of the rest of the world may as well not even exist.

This stuff worries me.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 11:17 AM

I hope you don’t sell into Latin America. The whole region is looking like it could go into an outright depression right now.

Doomberg on January 29, 2016 at 11:19 AM

Yeah, but we have another recovery summer to look forward to.

Just 1 more, fortunately, unless tRump manages to lose the general election.

MJBrutus on January 29, 2016 at 11:19 AM

So, is this “pointedly ignore Trump’s epic win last night” day on HotAir?

Paperclips on January 29, 2016 at 11:21 AM

This decline looks more broadly based, and as such more like what we are seeing in the global markets. It looks like a lack of confidence across a wide swath of groups within the US economy.

…otherwise known as reality setting in.

Revrun Wright’s chickens aroostin’.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 11:22 AM

BLS = Bureau of Lies and Scams.
Rix on January 29, 2016 at 10:49 AM

Their numbers are more cooked than a 3 day old pot of chili.

tommyboy on January 29, 2016 at 11:24 AM

I hope you don’t sell into Latin America. The whole region is looking like it could go into an outright depression right now.

Doomberg on January 29, 2016 at 11:19 AM

I do sell all over the world. Latin America has always been a pretty small market for me, though. It is also very quiet down there.

About the only places I won’t do business are Nigeria and Indonesia. Both of them have bad, bad reputations. Of course, so do Russia and parts of Eastern Europe, but I’ve never had much trouble shipping there.

I’ll tell you the most surprising place that’s a pain in the a$$. Canada. I’ve had more stuff get ‘lost’ up there than the entire rest of the world combined.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 11:27 AM

Recession is depressing.

Malaise is maddening.

Oboozle is Jimmuh Carter Jr.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 11:28 AM

Considering how unbelievably cheap gas is right now, the fact that consumer spending is slowing at the same time is BAD, bad news.

Atlantian on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

Any savings consumers get from the fall in gas prices are just going to the basics (i.e. food, monthly bills) or getting vacuumed up by higher taxes.

Doomberg on January 29, 2016 at 11:18 AM

…not to mention health insurance, deductibles, etc.

It’s a good thing that solar panels and OboozleCare are here to save us.

I know, ’cause Dear Leader told us so.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 11:35 AM

I do sell all over the world. Latin America has always been a pretty small market for me, though. It is also very quiet down there.

About the only places I won’t do business are Nigeria and Indonesia. Both of them have bad, bad reputations. Of course, so do Russia and parts of Eastern Europe, but I’ve never had much trouble shipping there.

I’ll tell you the most surprising place that’s a pain in the a$$. Canada. I’ve had more stuff get ‘lost’ up there than the entire rest of the world combined.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 11:27 AM

Interesting. I knew Nigeria had a bad rep, but not Indonesia. I’m surprised at both your good experiences with Russia/Eastern Europe and also really surprised about Canada, too.

Doomberg on January 29, 2016 at 11:36 AM

Really sick of this “weather” excuse. I’ll vote for the guy who tells the BLS and the Commerce department to stop with the “seasonal adjustment” crap.

Defenestratus on January 29, 2016 at 10:57 AM

“Seasonal adjustment” has nothing (directly) to do with the weather. Rather, it takes into account that people spend more during some parts of the year than they do in others. Because spending goes up for Christmas in the 4th Quarter, the growth figures are adjusted to account for that fact, and compared to other 4th Quarters rather than comparing them to the 3rd Quarter and discovering a big jump in spending. If, in the first quarter, weather has an regular, predictable impact on GDP (like 4Q Christmas spending), that is reflected in the adjusted figures, but the figures aren’t adjusted for individual weather events.

That also explains this:

Not only are gas prices down, but shouldn’t the 4th quarter be a little better than 0.7% GDP because of that little holiday celebrating the birth of some guy whose name escapes me? I thought everyone went shopping that time of year.

Doughboy on January 29, 2016 at 11:08 AM

The 0.7% increase is on top of expected increases due to holiday spending.

Their numbers are more cooked than a 3 day old pot of chili.

tommyboy on January 29, 2016 at 11:24 AM

We get this sort of whining every quarter. No one’s claiming that this is a booming, Clinton-like economy, but if half the whining about cooked figures we hear were true, we’d be in a real Depression right now.

urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 11:40 AM

Other than a few small sales, Europe has really slowed down, US sales have gone back to hot. Asia along with most of the rest of the world may as well not even exist.

This stuff worries me.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 11:17 AM

.
I guess you have left unmentioned your product category for a reason but can you give me the general SIC of your business? I promise I won’t poach your territory, I’m just a little old elderly man living in a moderately priced apartment complex.

ExpressoBold on January 29, 2016 at 11:41 AM

Remember to factor in the upward adjustment that Preznint Sh!t Midas on GDP to include everything not counted before. 0.7% actually means -1.5%. We have been a depression since Jug Ears took over.

Oh yeah 0.7% will be revised down to 0.4 and then finally to -0.1%. It will be due to warmer winter and of course, the colder winter. It is never Dog Eater’s fault.

jukin3 on January 29, 2016 at 11:42 AM

One thing that hasn’t slowed down is spending on health care (no, not insurance, actual care). The +0.43 percentage-point contribution to the change in real GDP (out of a total +0.69 percentage-point change) is the 7th quarter in the row that spending on health care has contributed at least +0.34 percentage points to GDP.

In fact, for the second quarter in 2015, increased spending on health care beyond the rate of inflation contributed over 60% of the net change in real GDP. For the year, that increased spending on health care contributed +0.53 percentage points to the net +2.38% yearly change in GDP.

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 11:50 AM

And this is after the Fed pumped nearly $5T into the economy via the various QE’s – on top of the $835B porkulus package and record levels of federal government expenditures.

We forget that all of that is deliberately offset by the Administration’s massive regulatory overload they’ve foisted on the economy combined with higher tax burdens. Add the lowest labor participation rates in nearly 40 years, decreasing / stagnant wages, and, as ShainS noted, the biggest contributor to growth in 2015 was healthcare spending – largely because of the EpicClusterFarknado.

Have no fear, with the economy in its present state, Cloward-Piven’s crashing of the ‘system’ looks all the more likely once the borders are opened and amnesty granted to 15M+. Let’s not forget that this Administration is now gleefully putting back into practice the same failed social justice processes that built the 2008 real estate / banking bubble.

Athos on January 29, 2016 at 11:51 AM

Considering how unbelievably cheap gas is right now, the fact that consumer spending is slowing at the same time is BAD, bad news.

Atlantian on January 29, 2016 at 10:59 AM

…cheap gas is frequently a sign of a receding economy…

Pelosi Schmelosi on January 29, 2016 at 12:00 PM

We get this sort of whining every quarter. No one’s claiming that this is a booming, Clinton-like economy, but if half the whining about cooked figures we hear were true, we’d be in a real Depression right now.
urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 11:40 AM

Who says we aren’t? It’s just masked by record numbers of food stamps and welfare payments.

tommyboy on January 29, 2016 at 12:00 PM

“Seasonal adjustment” has nothing (directly) to do with the weather.

I realize this – however manipulating the statistics to aspire to some kind of utopian normalization so that summer economic activity can be compared to winter economic activity is assnine. I’d rather they just dump the raw numbers on our heads and tell us straight up without any kind of manipulation.

(Note: Relevant to Climate Change “statistics” too)

Defenestratus on January 29, 2016 at 12:00 PM

urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 11:40 AM

…face it…your guy s*cks…

Pelosi Schmelosi on January 29, 2016 at 12:01 PM

Some fingers will undoubtedly point back to the Fed on this, given their first interest-rate increase in almost a decade in December. That wouldn’t account for a slowdown in consumer spending, although it might have something to do with a slowdown in business investment.

Given the Fed interest-rate hike also hit the consumer credit market, it would have had an effect…had it come in October instead of December.

If a .25 point increase, the first in almost 9 nears, would cause businesses to halt investment, the US Economy is screwed.

Johnnyreb on January 29, 2016 at 11:02 AM

You could have simply typed the last 4 words there.

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 12:03 PM

Have no fear, with the economy in its present state, Cloward-Piven’s crashing of the ‘system’ looks all the more likely once the borders are opened and amnesty granted to 15M+. Let’s not forget that this Administration is now gleefully putting back into practice the same failed social justice processes that built the 2008 real estate / banking bubble.

Athos on January 29, 2016 at 11:51 AM

Now they want to add “free education” to the brew, since we’ve not yet got enough college grads flippin’ burgers and that massive surplus to somehow spend.

Chickens aroostin’.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 12:04 PM

I guess you have left unmentioned your product category for a reason but can you give me the general SIC of your business? I promise I won’t poach your territory, I’m just a little old elderly man living in a moderately priced apartment complex.

ExpressoBold on January 29, 2016 at 11:41 AM

Not a problem, I guess. Lot’s of people deal in the same things that I do. I do collectible stamps and coins, vintage postcards and (mostly) obsolete currencies. I fell into it quite by accident, although I’ve been a lifelong stamp and coin collector. I’ve been expanding out into custom-cut gemstones as that’s actually more along the lines of my ‘real’ profession.

Sales run anywhere from a few dollars up to hundreds or even thousands. As you can imagine, some people like to make a smaller purchase or two starting out. When they get confidence they can move up to larger items. Considering I never see and very rarely even talk to my customers, it’s a surprisingly personal business sometimes. Most of my communication is via e-mail.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 12:08 PM

“Some fingers will undoubtedly point back to the Fed on this, given their first interest-rate increase in almost a decade in December. ”

Fingers are wrong. Though highly anticipated, the hike was made mid-month.

From a budgetary standpoint, many firms may have redone their forecasts several months prior to Q4, but much of the old adage pertains: If you don’t spend it, you lose it.

Firms would have tried to get in that last purchase.

Assuming Q1 trends continue and 2016 Q1 is in the toilet, Hillary has to look at Q2 & Q3 for hope. 2016 Q3 will come out ~10 days prior to the election and Q2 will have been forgotten about unless it’s some yuuuge number.

Add in Europe dissolving with migrant crises and the continued slowdown of China, where is the good news going to come from to help her with O’s 3rd term?

Steve_in_SoCal on January 29, 2016 at 12:09 PM

…face it…your guy s*cks…

Pelosi Schmelosi on January 29, 2016 at 12:01 PM

He’s doing better than your idol Ronnie Reagan on the economy by every measure, and took over during a worse crisis.

Who says we aren’t? It’s just masked by record numbers of food stamps and welfare payments.

tommyboy on January 29, 2016 at 12:00 PM

I guess all those incredibly profitable earnings reports by the Fortune 500 since 2009 are just a mass conspiracy to fudge the numbers. You don’t have to look at government figures to see that the economy is doing OK — look at the figures the private sector is putting out: record car sales, recovering real estate prices, etc.

urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 12:13 PM

Add in Europe dissolving with migrant crises and the continued slowdown of China, where is the good news going to come from to help her with O’s 3rd term?

Steve_in_SoCal on January 29, 2016 at 12:09 PM

Oboozle will declare war on Climate Change and everything will be hunky-dory.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 12:16 PM

He’s doing better than your idol Ronnie Reagan on the economy by every measure, and took over during a worse crisis.

Sell that shit to the bazillion able-bodied folks who’ve quit looking for work and don’t get counted in your oh-so-believable unfudged numbers.

Sell it to the two-worker families who are living paycheck to paycheck and cannot fathom surviving a $500 car repair.

Sell it to the masses of underemployed and part-time workers who have to forego new clothes for their families.

Actually, no one’s buying it.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 12:24 PM

I do collectible stamps and coins, vintage postcards and (mostly) obsolete currencies.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 12:08 PM

.
Thanks. It seems like you need to know what you are doing so you don’t get screwed in a fraudulent transaction.

ExpressoBold on January 29, 2016 at 12:27 PM

Sell that shit to the bazillion able-bodied folks who’ve quit looking for work and don’t get counted in your oh-so-believable unfudged numbers.

Sell it to the two-worker families who are living paycheck to paycheck and cannot fathom surviving a $500 car repair.

Sell it to the masses of underemployed and part-time workers who have to forego new clothes for their families.

Actually, no one’s buying it.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 12:24 PM

Sounds like the Reagan era to me.

Not to be callous, but there are always people struggling, regardless of the president or the economy. The only difference is that Republicans don’t care about them until there’s a Democratic president.

I’m still waiting for the day someone like you says “Oh yeah, we’d had a Republican President for seven years and a Republican Congress for 6.5 of the last seven years when the Great Recession hit. I guess maybe the Republicans had something to do with it.”

urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 12:33 PM

urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 12:13 PM

Come again? Let’s do some comparisons, noting that it’s now been 26 quarters since the “official” end of the Great Recession, and Reagan had less than 25 quarters between the end of the Early 1980s Recession and the end of his term:

GDP growth over the 25-quarter recovery period:
– 4Q1982-4Q1988 (which included the end of the Early 1980s Recession): +32.74%, or +4.64% annualized
– 3Q2009-3Q2015: 14.34%, or 2.17% annualized

25-54 employment stats (seasonally-adjusted, used to eliminate the growing elderly population and the cultural aversion to work among the youth):
– Reagan-era LFPR: 11/1982 79.91%, 1/1989 (yes, the survey week was during his administration) 83.49%
– Obama-era LFPR: 6/2009 82.88%, 8/2015 80.69%
– Reagan-era employment-population ratio: 11/1982 72.79%, 1/1989 79.96%
– Obama-era employment-population ratio: 75.87%, 8/2015 77.18%
– Reagan-era unemployment rate: 11/1982 8.92%, 1/1989 4.22%
– Obama-era unemployment rate: 6/2009 8.46%, 8/2015 4.36%

Thanks for playing.

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 12:47 PM

The Cake Is A Lie!!!

This is as transparent as a well-used bar of Neutrogena soap.

Tell outright lies about the economy, have the media enforce the notion, if/when Republicans get elected, tell truth about completely shitty economy, let media blame stupid Republicans.

The US economy has been a disaster, artificially propped up by the Fed, and Democrats with their leftist media sycophants have been lying about it since 2008.

There is no recovery, any fuel expenditure savings have now been successfully transfered to government through ungodly taxation and artificially inflated healthcare costs. Employment participation rate is at an historical low, and Americans are no longer buying the left’s bullshit.

Urban Dipshit, you can only fake the numbers for just so long before people realize you’ve been cooking them. You can yell “record profits and all is well!!” all you want. When the entire populace is out of work and won’t spend anything they do manage to scrape together, your days are numbered. Too bad your boy couldn’t stretch his cloward-piven scheme out as far as you would have liked, eh?

a5minmajor on January 29, 2016 at 12:48 PM

Where’s my edit button? The 4th-last line should read:

– Obama-era employment-population ratio: 6/2009 75.87%, 8/2015 77.18%

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 12:51 PM

Thanks. It seems like you need to know what you are doing so you don’t get screwed in a fraudulent transaction.

ExpressoBold on January 29, 2016 at 12:27 PM

There’s a lot to know. That’s one of the things that’s fun about it. Also, the items themselves can lead to a lot of research. I spend my days learning about all sorts of arcane and interesting things. Nobody will play Trivia with me anymore.

Vintage postcards are really interesting. A lot of stuff is fairly common, but, people used to be able to have personal photo’s printed up on postcard stock by their photo store. Sometimes there are the most amazing pieces of history captured. I’ve sold several cards to museums. Two even went to the Smithsonian. I’ve come across several cards that were previously unknown photos of disasters. I got one once of the old USS Iowa being sunk by naval gunfire in a practice exercise off Panama. Absolutely one of the last photos of it ever taken.

Just fun stuff.

trigon on January 29, 2016 at 12:52 PM

We get this sort of whining every quarter. No one’s claiming that this is a booming, Clinton-like economy

urban effetist on January 29, 2016 at 11:40 AM

It’s always hilarious to see your utterly willful ignorance on display, and always a pleasure for me to demolish your Lies.

Wednesday, January 27th, Democrat Stenographic outfit al-Associated Press put out this fawning story on the “great” number of home sales in December of 2015.

Reliable Democrat Kneepad Josh Boak cooed as follows:

“Americans rushed to buy new homes in December at the strongest pace in 10 months.”

But that is only 38,000 homes-or about 0.031 percent of the nation’s roughly 123 million households.

Al-AP’s Boak also continued to engage in his tired habit of benchmarking against the results of the past 50-plus years without adjusting for population growth, an exercise designed to create the false impression that the homebuilding industry is far closer to genuinely recovery than it actually is.

F-

Del Dolemonte on January 29, 2016 at 12:58 PM

I’m noticing a large number of new “store closing” signs and empty storefronts lately.

HakerA on January 29, 2016 at 12:59 PM

Sounds like the Reagan era to me.

It would, since you haven’t an honest bone in your body. You don’t address the perpetually unemployed, I notice.

Not to be callous, but there are always people struggling, regardless of the president or the economy.

Obviously.

The only difference is that Republicans don’t care about them until there’s a Democratic president.

This is an ought-right lie and slanderous at best. Republicans, the conservative ones at least, want to help the struggling to get to a better place in their lives. You and your ilk give them subsistence and no hope.

I’m still waiting for the day someone like you says “Oh yeah, we’d had a Republican President for seven years and a Republican Congress for 6.5 of the last seven years when the Great Recession hit. I guess maybe the Republicans had something to do with it.”

urban elitist on January 29, 2016 at 12:33 PM

Where the hell do you think the Tea Party came from? From where do you think the base’s disdain for the GOPe stems?

Bush’s profligate spending and TARP were two of the biggest drivers of these phenomena.

I don’t hear you bleating about King Putt’s spending. Imagine that.

hillbillyjim on January 29, 2016 at 1:02 PM

Old America.

25 percent greater per capita GDP than Western Europe
3-4 percent GDP economic growth
5 percent unemployment

Old Europe.
25 percent less per capita GDP than US
1-2 percent GDP economic growth
8-10 percent unemployment

New America now resembles Old Europe. We have lost our advantages even in unemployment if you count the U7 not the U3.

Other metrics like more businesses failing than starting and we are looking at the the first generation of Americans that will be worse off than their parents if it isn’t already so.

timoric on January 29, 2016 at 1:09 PM

One thing that hasn’t slowed down is spending on health care (no, not insurance, actual care).

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 11:50 AM

Is this because with the super high deductibles on Obamacare policies, we are actually paying that much more out of pocket than in the days of $500 deductibles?

Dolce Far Niente on January 29, 2016 at 1:10 PM

timoric on January 29, 2016 at 1:09 PM

The “good” news (unless you’re in Europe or have any interest in the global economy) is New Europe is doing far worse.

Is this because with the super high deductibles on Obamacare policies, we are actually paying that much more out of pocket than in the days of $500 deductibles?

Dolce Far Niente on January 29, 2016 at 1:10 PM

Without data to back it up, I’d take the former.

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 1:18 PM

UE – you should have stopped while you were ahead. Reagan comparisons are silly and I see one of our stat guys roundly schooled you.

Just can’t stop can you.

As to the 4th quarter – I think the reality is the end of the quarter was actually negative and the beginning positive. I believe we are contracting now and the only question will be when we stop and whether it will ever become official. History will not be kind to Obama. The recession was officially over before he took office. His recovery is the worst in our modern era. His labor participation rate is at 40 year lows, the college employment rate is down. Income inequality, that silly metric from the left actually has increased under Obama.

Funny that. The gutting of the middle class has been accelerated by Obama. Yep, he and those who apologize for him need to refocus their gaze.

He destroyed the health care market – Ocare will be killed once he leaves – his foreign policy has been an unmitigated disaster, with the ME aflame, refugees flooding Europe and more islamic terrorist activity on the home front (and not to mention a resurgent Russia but that is kind of tied into the ME) and the weakest recovery from a recession in modern history, with real wages of the middle class dropping and labor participation rates as low as Carters.

Yep – pretty good record.

Zomcon JEM on January 29, 2016 at 1:51 PM

Steve E – based upon what the hospitals are reporting its because they cannot afford to pay the higher deductibles, suggesting that more procedures are being covered by payers not insurance.

In and of itself that is neither good or bad. Based upon the Ocare rules its a disaster.

10,000 -12,000 dollars per year out of pocket before anything except mandated covered items are paid, before insurance kicks in.

Zomcon JEM on January 29, 2016 at 1:54 PM

I’m noticing a large number of new “store closing” signs and empty storefronts lately.

HakerA on January 29, 2016 at 12:59 PM

In my area there is a semi trailer manufacturer. When the lots around the plant start to fill up it’s a warning the economy isn’t in good shape. The lots are getting close to full.

wifarmboy on January 29, 2016 at 1:57 PM

Steve E – based upon what the hospitals are reporting its because they cannot afford to pay the higher deductibles, suggesting that more procedures are being covered by payers not insurance.

In and of itself that is neither good or bad. Based upon the Ocare rules its a disaster.

10,000 -12,000 dollars per year out of pocket before anything except mandated covered items are paid, before insurance kicks in.

Zomcon JEM on January 29, 2016 at 1:54 PM

Anecdotal, but serves to back me up.

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 2:16 PM

And that is after they lied about the facts. We shall soon see it is much worse. If an anti-dhimocrapt gets in office, we will see how they have lied for the last eight years. When the correction is made, the stupid pundits will take the end figure and compare it to the revised start figure and spend the next few years telling us how bad the anti-dhimocrapts made the economy, compared to how it used to be. The lying media will support this and 40% of the voters will believe them. This will go down in the revised history books as to how good obama was and how bad all the other liars were.

Old Country Boy on January 29, 2016 at 2:25 PM

Urban ….you swallow. That is clear and you’re not only economically illiterate but you’re historically clueless.

CWforFreedom on January 29, 2016 at 2:25 PM

http://www.usdebtclock.org

CWforFreedom on January 29, 2016 at 2:34 PM

I know a lot of you are fairly young and have no memories, and a lot of you are older and have faulty memories, however, before obama care, we did have a sort of coverage for pre-existing conditions. In most cases the person had insurance coverage, but coverage of any pre-existing conditions had to wait six months or a year, then it was covered. I realize that our official memories (those approved by the Dhimocrapts), would have you believe this never was. What is happening now is what the insurance companies tried to mitigate, people not buying insurance until it was too late and they needed it. That has screwed up the risk sharing something terrible. If you are to stupid to buy insurance, think the government should take care of you (somebody else pays for it) or would rather spend your money on ipads, booze, clothes, concerts,meth, cars, et.al. then you deserve what you get – you lost your bet. For years, non-group insurance was available, and not too expensive.

Old Country Boy on January 29, 2016 at 2:35 PM

They announced on my local radio station that the reason growth was off in Q4 was because the weather was too NICE back then so people bought less stuff. Shameless media lapdogs.

brainy435 on January 29, 2016 at 2:41 PM

The slowdown could renew doubts about the durability of the 6½-year-old economic expansion.

What is this “economic expansion” of which you speak?

GrumpyOldFart on January 29, 2016 at 3:47 PM

Steve Eggleston on January 29, 2016 at 2:16 PM

Somewhere there is certainly some stat that would confirm the reason for the reality the hospitals are seeing, but I have never run across it.

The 10,000 – 12,000 out of pocket paid before first expense is paid is pretty well understood as the standard OCare result based upon the benefit consultant and broker groups. The creation of high deductible plans that have to cover everything really drove the cost up of premiums. States or carriers who tried to keep things less expensive or tried to be very careful with enrollee selection eventually got engulfed. The strategy of letting the large market leader in each state take the hit with negative selection ended up biting everyone in the ass – as they now have the big losses and are sucking in the subsidy payments since they lost the most. It actually was an ingenious move by Rubio and the folks he worked with to put it in there. It is showing everyone in DC up front and personal how financially unstable the program is and will help facilitate its replacement in 2017.

Zomcon JEM on January 29, 2016 at 3:54 PM

…cheap gas is frequently a sign of a receding economy…

Pelosi Schmelosi on January 29, 2016 at 12:00 PM

That’s true. As the global economy slows down, oil prices should theoretically fall and vice versa. However, there have been some notable exceptions the last 15-years. While the economy of the late 1990s was growing rapidly, energy prices stayed very steady.

Prior to and even immediately after the 2008 collapse, oil prices were insanely high, close to $120 a barrel, IIRC.

Atlantian on January 29, 2016 at 4:14 PM

The country’s in the very best of hands….

GrumpyOldFart on January 29, 2016 at 6:21 PM