Here we go: New poll of New Hampshire has … Jeb Bush in second with 18%

posted at 2:01 pm on January 27, 2016 by Allahpundit

Do I dare post a poll with a glaring outlier result, conducted by a pollster with a C+ rating for accuracy by FiveThirtyEight, simply because I know the result will scare the pants off my readers?

You should know me well enough by now to know the answer to that question.

A new statewide New Hampshire poll reveals Donald Trump holding a significant lead over his Republican opponents with 35% of the vote. Jeb Bush surprisingly takes second with 18%, and John Kasich finishes third with 14%. The rest of the field included Marco Rubio at 9%, Ted Cruz at 8%, and Chris Christie getting 5%, despite a last minute endorsement from the Boston Herald. Among Democratic primary voters, Sanders holds a steady lead over Clinton of 52% to 44%.

“Bush’s performance may have been helped by the heavy spending on attack ads by his Super PAC, Right to Rise USA”, notes Marion Kinosian a Junior Political Communication major. Right to Rise has spent more than $65 million overall, including $12 million on ads in New Hampshire alone (opensecrets.org)

That’s from Emerson College, which RCP doesn’t even bother to track. HuffPo does track it, but you have to go back to late September in their poll digest to find Jeb Bush above 10 percent in any New Hampshire survey. In fact, follow the RCP link and note the green line showing Jeb’s polling average over time and you’ll see that the most remarkable trend in his numbers is how steady they’ve been. Since September, apart from a short blip earlier this month, he’s never been lower than seven percent and never higher than 9.3. RCP has him at eight percent even today, smack dab in the middle. The last four polls in NH before Emerson had him at seven, seven, eight, and nine points, nearly identical to Chris Christie in every case. I’m noting Emerson now in case a bunch of polls over the next three or four days suddenly show Jeb on the move, in which case we’ll point back to this as the first sign of Jebmentum. But until they do, there’s no reason to take this result seriously.

Worth noting: This makes three polls in a row where Jeb’s numbers are either comparable to, or (in Emerson’s case), noticeably higher than Marco Rubio’s. An ARG poll released this week had Rubio at nine percent and Bush at eight. A Boston Herald poll released shortly before that one had Bush at nine and Rubio at eight. None of those are major pollsters, though, and the two majors who polled the state last week — Fox News and CBS — each had Rubio at 13-14 percent with Jeb stuck back at seven percent. I’m inclined to believe those are right and Emerson/ARG/BH are wrong, but for what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight gives Rubio only a slightly better chance than Bush right now of winning New Hampshire:

53

I think most of the commentariat would be shocked to realize that the two Floridians have a roughly equal shot at NH at this point. Partly that’s because we’ve all spent eight months rubbernecking at how awful Jeb’s campaign has been and partly it’s because, on paper, Rubio has everything going for him — electable, next-gen, much better at the mic, and so on. Even the many millions Right to Rise has spent trying to destroy him shouldn’t — on paper — be enough to drag a rising star as bright as Marco down to parity with Bush 3.0 in the polls. And yet here we are. Conservatives I follow on Twitter have been stuck in a running debate lately (amid all the tweeting about Trump) over just how wrong or not wrong it is for Jeb to have seemingly ruined Rubio’s chances in New Hampshire with a barrage of attack ads. On the one hand, the guy’s just trying to win: Sink Rubio, hope that Kasich and Christie fade on their own (which Christie is certainly doing), and boom, Jeb is the center-right champion by process of elimination. On the other hand, is Jeb really trying to win? That is to say, does Jeb Bush really, honestly envision a scenario at this point where he’s crowned Republican nominee and the party doesn’t break into a thousand pieces? Jay Cost wonders:

Bush and Right to Rise have spent tens of millions trying to build up Bush’s popularity, but it has been an abject failure. The rivals he is trying to blow up, especially Rubio, are still substantially better positioned to take on Trump down the line, despite the negative advertising blitzes against them from Team Bush.

That is what makes the play so objectionable: the Bush campaign is trying to set up a race against Trump that the Bush campaign has no good reason to think Bush can win. And the odds are that all the Bush campaign will achieve is making more likely the calamitous nomination of Donald Trump. Yet Bush is determined to try to force a final showdown between him and Trump by dumping $20 million (so far) in negative ads against manifestly superior candidates…

In truth, there is another path for Bush. He likes to tell us that he has the experience and shown the good judgment to be a responsible steward of the national interest. For the sake of that interest, he could show some leadership now by dropping out, recognizing that he has no clear path to the nomination, and endorse one of the other, non-Trump candidates.

Normally, job one for a candidate’s campaign apparatus is getting that candidate elected. This year, though, because of the Trump X factor, job one for a conservative candidate is arguably stopping Trump before he rips the conservative coalition apart (assuming he hasn’t already). What’s more, Jeb Bush himself might tell you, disingenuously or not, that he agrees that that’s job one — although of course he’d also tell you that the surest way to stop Trump is by voting for him. Cost and others are agonizing because there’s just no way that that’s true: I find it hard to believe that even Jeb’s supporters, having absorbed eight months of populist radiation and knowing what his favorable rating looks like nowadays among Republicans, would tell you that Jeb Bush is your best bet to beat Trump. The rosiest scenario for Jeb is that he does somehow end up in a two-man race with Trump, takes one heavy blow after another from Trump en route to the nomination, and then watches as Trump’s entire coalition plus chunks of Cruz’s base stay home in disgust at the thought of adding another chapter to the Bush dynasty. I vastly prefer Bush to Trump on a personal level, but even I’d prefer a hard reboot of the GOP by nominating Trump, whatever that means for the general election, to rubber-stamping another Bush. And if a guy like me, who’s spent most of his time lately grumbling about Trump, feels that way, how must people less opposed to Trump feel about the prospect of a Trump/Bush race? Frankly, this is what Beltway Republicans deserve after talking Trump up in hopes that he’ll eliminate Cruz for them — a one-on-one race between Trump and their beloved Jeb in which Trump runs Bush off the field. And they may get it.

Update: No sooner did I finish writing that last paragraph than this trickled across my Twitter feed. Is Jebmentum real?


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Comments

[Dusty on January 27, 2016 at 2:52 PM]

I think the saying may have been, “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country”, though it appears to be basically a remark taken out of context and used as a smear by, wait for it, Democrats on Republicans way back in 1953.

Still, it was Eisenhower who would warn about the military-industrial complex some 8 years later.

Dusty on January 27, 2016 at 3:08 PM

Still, it was Eisenhower who would warn about the military-industrial complex some 8 years later.

Dusty on January 27, 2016 at 3:08 PM

He had a point, but that point has been distorted and misused by Democrats for a long time.

The Military-Industrial Complex sounds so intimidating.

We also called it the Arsenal of Democracy.

It sure would be nice if people all over America were hard at work churning out fighter jets, bombers, ships and tanks in a quality and quantity that makes sense for our country.

There is nothing more purely American than blowing sh!t up with fighter jets. Woohoo!

Brian1972 on January 27, 2016 at 3:15 PM

35% to 18%.

Tighter than a rattlesnake in a panty hose!

-Dan Rather

Meremortal on January 27, 2016 at 3:32 PM

AP reminds me of the movie Lifeboat. He is desperate for help.

alanstern on January 27, 2016 at 3:32 PM

The ultimate schadenfreude would be if Bush somehow beat Trump in NH.

Tater Salad on January 27, 2016 at 3:38 PM

Does finishing third in one liberal state make you a serious contender for the GOP nomination?

supersport667 on January 27, 2016 at 3:57 PM

The ultimate schadenfreude would be if Bush somehow beat Trump in NH.

Tater Salad on January 27, 2016 at 3:38 PM

Please, I’m laughing hard enough at this “poll” as it is.

And PhillipBuster, I went up the Empire State Building and there was no… repeat NO howler monkey suit to be found…

Not cool, man. Not cool!

Turtle317 on January 27, 2016 at 4:00 PM

High energy Yeb?

C’mon AP, who’s trolling whom now? :)

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on January 27, 2016 at 4:01 PM

New poll of New Hampshire has … Jeb Bush in second with 18%

The rest of the story: They only polled Bush family members.

Nomennovum on January 27, 2016 at 4:03 PM

New poll of New Hampshire has … Jeb Bush in second with 18%

The rest of the story: They only polled Bush family members.

Nomennovum on January 27, 2016 at 4:03 PM

ROFLMAO

fossten on January 27, 2016 at 4:10 PM

The ultimate schadenfreude would be if Bush somehow beat Trump in NH.

Tater Salad on January 27, 2016 at 3:38 PM

It warms my heart knowing how much this means to you. Your tears will be tasty.

fossten on January 27, 2016 at 4:10 PM

The ultimate schadenfreude would be if Bush somehow beat Trump in NH.

Tater Salad on January 27, 2016 at 3:38 PM

I been wondering about sumpin. Did Trump or someone that looks like him, bust a nut in your, Happy Nomad’s, or TBSchemer’s wife/gf/mom/sis whatever?

arnold ziffel on January 27, 2016 at 4:18 PM

Can’t believe HA posted this crap. Why not post a SC poll conducted by me in which I give 2 respondents two choices… vote for one…

1.Trump

2. Donald Trump

they lie on January 27, 2016 at 4:27 PM

Keep hoping and doping

Schadenfreude on January 27, 2016 at 4:29 PM

Of course the establishment puppet Jeb is liked in NH. Anyone who lives in this area knows that NH is but the bedroom place of all those Massachusetts liberals who are living there to escape the Mass. Tax monster they themselves created.

Don L on January 27, 2016 at 4:48 PM

Still, it was Eisenhower who would warn about the military-industrial complex some 8 years later.

Dusty on January 27, 2016 at 3:08 PM

Now it’s the political/educational/media/professional victim complex that threatens America.

Don L on January 27, 2016 at 4:51 PM

The man hombre that refused to die.

DFCtomm on January 27, 2016 at 4:51 PM

It’s a Jebalanche!

Mister Ghost on January 27, 2016 at 4:54 PM

Hah! Seriously?

This must have come at the behest of Barbara Bush!

Again.. Hah! HAHAHAHAHAHA! :::DEEP BREATH:::: HAHAHAHAHAH! HAHAHAHAHAH! HAHAHAHAHAH! HAHAHAHAHAH!

Good luck, Yeb~!

Key West Reader on January 27, 2016 at 4:58 PM

Fillmore for Jeb,or any other republican, over that nasty fraud, trump, any day.

Anyone but trump 2016.

Malachi45 on January 27, 2016 at 5:11 PM

I bet Jeb is starting to look pretty good to Trumpers. When you use the criteria necessary to approve of Trump as a conservative choice and apply it to Jeb, he probably looks halfway decent.

KingOfTheRoad on January 27, 2016 at 5:13 PM

jebbie is a beta dog….we need an alpha dog

TRUMP 2016

Pragmatic on January 27, 2016 at 5:23 PM

Can you say “vote rigging” ?? I knew you could.

KMC1 on January 27, 2016 at 5:25 PM

I bet Jeb is starting to look pretty good to Trumpers. When you use the criteria necessary to approve of Trump as a conservative choice and apply it to Jeb, he probably looks halfway decent.

KingOfTheRoad on January 27, 2016 at 5:13 PM

You just won the completely clueless award. Congratulations for missing the point!

DFCtomm on January 27, 2016 at 5:25 PM

“surge” or “momentum” or some wishful thinking

LaughterJones on January 27, 2016 at 5:27 PM

Trump has been so tedious this week, I might consider voting for Jeb if he gets the nomination instead of writing in Trump.

Or getting a job doing IT security for the federal gvt which appears to have no minimum standard.

Or consuming mass quantities of mind altering substances.

I just can’t look forward to 4 years of whiny primadonna. Whinier than Obama. (Not un-American like Obama, but the whining is much worse. The desperate need for attention. Oy.)

talkingpoints on January 27, 2016 at 5:37 PM

I just can’t look forward to 4 years of whiny primadonna. Whinier than Obama. (Not un-American like Obama, but the whining is much worse. The desperate need for attention. Oy.)

talkingpoints on January 27, 2016 at 5:37 PM

That’s a legit complaint. Trump may end up being the greatest president ever, but he’s going to whine like a little bich the whole time.

DFCtomm on January 27, 2016 at 5:40 PM

I don’t believe it!

Nat George on January 27, 2016 at 5:40 PM

Breaking, the alternate venue is on.

http://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/

Schadenfreude on January 27, 2016 at 5:50 PM

Does finishing third in one liberal state make you a serious contender for the GOP nomination?

supersport667 on January 27, 2016 at 3:57 PM

Only if you also finish fourth in your home state.

Magicjava on January 27, 2016 at 6:04 PM

BOOOSH! 2016

Oxymoron on January 27, 2016 at 6:04 PM


MURDOCH NUDGES BLOOMBERG TO RUN…

Lime in the Coconut on January 27, 2016 at 6:19 PM

I bet Jeb is starting to look pretty good to Trumpers. When you use the criteria necessary to approve of Trump as a conservative choice and apply it to Jeb, he probably looks halfway decent.

KingOfTheRoad on January 27, 2016 at 5:13 PM

You just won the completely clueless award. Congratulations for missing the point!

DFCtomm on January 27, 2016 at 5:25 PM

I hope that King Of The Road was joking.

If not, I don’t know what to say.

Redstone on January 27, 2016 at 6:28 PM

Here comes Jeb..while Trump and Cruz do not but attack each other for no good reason..

celt on January 27, 2016 at 6:30 PM

..do nothing but..

celt on January 27, 2016 at 6:31 PM

If Jeb!’s the candidate I’m going independent. Enough of these Bush squishes. He literally possesses no testosterone. Not one drop. If he were wearing a wig you would swear it’s his mother.

phadras on January 27, 2016 at 6:34 PM

I call shenanigans! Shenanigans!

Fallon on January 27, 2016 at 6:56 PM

Oh my gosh. That can not be correct.

Please, Donald Trump, I hate your guts. Please save us from Jeb Bush!

petunia on January 27, 2016 at 7:08 PM

I live in New Hampshire. In the past WEEK, there has been a SERIOUSLY large number of Jeb signs placed in many sections of town, and a tenfold increase in mail he is spamming to people’s mailboxes.

That being said – Jeb is not in 2nd place legitimately. lol @ polls suggesting otherwise.

Freeloader on January 27, 2016 at 7:10 PM

I can not imagine that a choice would be betweent a Clinton and a Bush.

I would not vote

Honestly Bernie would be better than either of them.

petunia on January 27, 2016 at 7:13 PM

..uh..oh! Now AP has two reasons to change his Depends™.

The War Planner on January 27, 2016 at 7:16 PM

5 days.

Lird your goins.

Meremortal on January 27, 2016 at 7:18 PM

Not a whole details on the Trump event right now, but there is this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZwtTMAWIAMVuXc.jpg
Maybe more will info be forthcoming on O’Reilly.

whatcat on January 27, 2016 at 7:28 PM

5 days.

Lird your goins.

Meremortal on January 27, 2016 at 7:18 PM

Guard your lions.

whatcat on January 27, 2016 at 7:29 PM

I forget who but someone here earlier today, or maybe last night, commented on AP’s writing. The commenter threw out some vague figures of 95% and 5%. Talent and substance.

Do I dare post a poll with a glaring outlier result, conducted by a pollster with a C+ rating for accuracy by FiveThirtyEight, simply because I know the result will scare the pants off my readers?

You should know me well enough by now to know the answer to that question.

Yep. I could go with those figures.

Lolo on January 27, 2016 at 7:31 PM

I live in New Hampshire. In the past WEEK, there has been a SERIOUSLY large number of Jeb signs placed in many sections of town, and a tenfold increase in mail he is spamming to people’s mailboxes.

Must be “plan Z”.

No one will believe it is legit.

Redstone on January 27, 2016 at 7:51 PM

I live in New Hampshire. In the past WEEK, there has been a SERIOUSLY large number of Jeb signs placed in many sections of town, and a tenfold increase in mail he is spamming to people’s mailboxes.

Freeloader on January 27, 2016 at 7:10 PM

Must be “plan Z”.

No one will believe it is legit.

Redstone on January 27, 2016 at 7:51 PM

I’d say it was legit. Money to be spent must be spent.

Lolo on January 27, 2016 at 8:12 PM

Bush is smuoosh. Trump is shrump. So Cruz is smuz.
NH, what the hell is the matter with you?

J.B. Say on January 27, 2016 at 11:16 PM

Jeb Boy is a lock! I see that Chelsea gave him a pretty nice thumbs up!

“When asked who she thought the best candidate was on the Republican side she cited Jeb Bush saying he is ‘the only voice on the other side that is demonstrating strong American values’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3420932/Chelsea-Clinton-s-fundraising-FLOP-Soul-Cycle-event-raise-money-Hillary-bust-2700-seats-offered-just-50-bikes.html

mooseygoosey on January 28, 2016 at 11:23 AM

Right to Rise has tried to ruin any chance of Marco Rubio ever having a future running for anything in the republican party, it is unwarranted, unacceptable, and it seems like it must be personal, MR was supposed to step aside and kiss the feet of the Bushes.

Marco doesn’t go to work, he is a lazy immigrant, sits home when he should be working for the people of Florida, instead he is at fundraisers around the country…while Jeb jets around in style on someone elses dime, and doesn’t waste time…

Marco is for amnesty! so says Jeb, “they come here outta love” Bush.

And Marco’s ads are really good in New England, he really talks up being an American, based on the ads, Rubios ads are really nice quality.

This Emerson College poll, I just don’t know, are they asking “Who do you think Hilary should run against???”

Fleuries on January 28, 2016 at 11:32 AM

I’ll drop out of this society if Bush 3 is the nominee.

FireBlogger on January 28, 2016 at 6:51 PM