Q-poll in Iowa: Cruz leads among previous caucus-goers, Trump among new

posted at 8:41 am on January 26, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

The big question behind the enthusiasm for Donald Trump has been whether that can be translated into turnout. In Iowa, Quinnipiac has attempted to answer that question by identifying the basis of that support. As expected, Trump brings in a significant number of new voters intending to caucus for the first time in Iowa, but he’s also nearly leading among more experienced voters:

The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race going down to the wire with Donald Trump at 31 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 13 percent, with no other candidate above 7 percent.

This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 31 percent, with 29 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.

Today, 2 percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 24 percent say they “would definitely not support” Trump, with 24 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only 12 percent say ‘no way’ to Cruz.

The key to the big question comes in the internals. For those likely voters (identified by Quinnipiac by its polling) who will attend their first caucus in 2016, Trump has a double-digit lead over Cruz. 38/25. Cruz leads those who have attended previous caucuses, but only narrowly at 31/28. Marco Rubio comes in third in both groups at 15% and 12% respectively, and no one else comes close to the top three.

Previously, it has been assumed that Trump’s base consists of alienated voters who do not normally participate in primaries and caucuses. This distinction matters more for caucus states, as caucuses take place at specific times and require a more or less public declaration of support. Primaries take place all day long and use secret ballots. It takes more GOTV efforts to get first-timers to caucus than to a primary, and the results are a good test of organizational strength in the short and long term.

This Q-poll shows that a substantial portion of Trump’s support is coming from more regular voters. Those voters will take less effort to turn out next week, and are an indication that Trump’s appeal is broader within the party than some have presumed.

There are other interesting data points in the internals of the candidate question, too. For instance, despite recent analysis, the Tea Party vote breaks hard for Cruz, 50/34 over Trump, while Rubio gets his worst score at 4% in this demographic. Cruz leads Trump among voters who prioritize terrorism (31/28), shared values (45/19), and honesty (38/21, with Ben Carson third at 12%). Trump beats Cruz on the economy (33/19), foreign policy (37/24), and especially on strong leadership (49/12).

What will get Iowa caucus voters out to a meeting on a cold winter night? I’d guess the economy and a thirst for strong leadership. If Cruz wants to distinguish himself on those points, he’d better get started right now. But if Trump can actually get those new voters out to caucuses, and pull new voters into other primaries and caucuses, then he might end up foreclosing on the nomination faster than previously thought — even if that is still a mighty big if.


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Comments

Hope the ERs are well staffed on caucus night.

WryTrvllr on January 26, 2016 at 8:45 AM

It’s all about ETHANOL in Iowa

gerrym51 on January 26, 2016 at 8:47 AM

What will get Iowa caucus voters out to a meeting on a cold winter night?

So far it’s been a mild winter in the midwest (especially after the last two) so it’s more likely novelty voters will go out and caucus. But Iowa is a poor predictor of the GOP nominee.

rbj on January 26, 2016 at 8:48 AM

Meh

cmsinaz on January 26, 2016 at 8:54 AM

It’s all about ETHANOL in Iowa

gerrym51 on January 26, 2016 at 8:47 AM

Don’t tell me they drink it.

Rix on January 26, 2016 at 8:56 AM

ah, AP put the picture of the ” i can shoot someone and still get votes” as article picture.
sad… exploit of soundbites is very liberal IMO.

nathor on January 26, 2016 at 8:58 AM

And:

Morning Joe 1/26/16
Trump up among white evangelicals: poll
Top Talkers: Donald Trump’s national lead continues, and he leads the GOP field with 39 percent, according to the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey weekly tracking poll. The Morning Joe panel discusses. Duration: 5:06

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-up-among-white-evangelicals-poll-608969283939
=================================

Poll: Evangelicals flocking to Trump

By Nick Gass

01/26/16 06:06 AM EST
*********************

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-evangelicals-poll-218210
=================

NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Published by MSNBC
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
See more
=============

https://www.scribd.com/doc/296652600/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Weekly-Election-Tracking-Poll?secret_password=S6W3LD8FvKbFLAufDtbA

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 7:49 AM

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:00 AM

And:
=====

2016 US elections
8m
Washington Post/ABC News poll: Donald Trump maintains national lead amongst GOP voters with 37% support, trailed by Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio
Read more on washingtonpost.com
========

January 26 at 7:00 AM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-first-voting-nears-trump-seems-stronger/2016/01/25/349439d4-c392-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html
=================================

Washington Post-ABC News poll Jan. 21-24 – 2016 election and politics
**********

As first voting nears, Trump seems stronger

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-jan-21-24-2016-election-and-politics/1941/

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:03 AM

Upon review the MSM, msm, blog media in the U S

Vs

the Soviet Union media back in the day.

Soviet media lap dogs of the ruling elite commies on pain of gulag.

U S media lap dogs of the elite commies for gold and by evil choice.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on January 26, 2016 at 9:04 AM

What will get Iowa caucus voters out to a meeting on a cold winter night?
================

WaterLoo cometh, or, nots!!!!

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:04 AM

…I’m not going to get excited about anything…until after super Tuesday.

JugEarsButtHurt on January 26, 2016 at 9:05 AM

…an indication that Trump’s appeal is broader within the party than some have presumed.

Ya’ don’t say.

I want to know how many of those Rubio supporters are going to break away.

cozmo on January 26, 2016 at 9:06 AM

What will get Iowa caucus voters out to a meeting on a cold winter night?

Cold weather is hardly a novelty to people in the Midwest. Short of an active snowstorm at caucus time, it should make no difference to Iowa residents.

Dolce Far Niente on January 26, 2016 at 9:06 AM

JugEarsButtHurt on January 26, 2016 at 9:05 AM

It ought to be decided by then. Hangover Wednesday.

cozmo on January 26, 2016 at 9:07 AM

I just sent the suicide hotline number to Rove and the staff of Fox News.

Mr. Arrogant on January 26, 2016 at 9:09 AM

Breaking:

The latest hillbillyjimPoll™ shows that 100% of hillbillyjims are up to here with polls. Polling also indicates that 100% of hillbillyjims think that given the demographics and the trend toward smartphones and away from home phones, on top of the myriad reasons for not giving honest poll answers, polling has become inaccurate to the point of hilarity.

(margin of error + or – 0%)

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:10 AM

I just sent the suicide hotline number to Rove and the staff of Fox News.

Mr. Arrogant on January 26, 2016 at 9:09 AM

Why on earth would you do that?!

MMK on January 26, 2016 at 9:11 AM


CNN/ORC Polling:
——————

Donald J. Trump [email protected] 1h1 hour ago

“@realDonaldTrump hits new heights in national poll at 41%”

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/691967215097221120
==============================================================

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-polling/

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:13 AM

I just sent the suicide hotline number to Rove and the staff of Fox News.

Mr. Arrogant on January 26, 2016 at 9:09 AM

Mr. Arrogant: You did send this to the DNC as well, I hope.

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:16 AM

CNN/ORC Polling: …

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:13 AM

Dwarfs and Elves hardest hit?

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:17 AM

CNN/ORC Polling:
——————

Donald J. Trump [email protected] 1h1 hour ago

[email protected] hits new heights in national poll at 41%”

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/691967215097221120
==============================================================

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-polling/

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:13 AM

Looking at the other candidates, like Ben, he is 10 points behind, but way ahead on those who would vote, and still a large number who have not made a decision…so his numbers have a much higher ceiling than Trumps, same with Carly and with Rubio.

right2bright on October 2, 2015 at 10:09 AM

As candidates condense, where are those votes going? Not to Trump, you would think the leader would expand his lead if he truly was “the one”.

right2bright on November 4, 2015 at 11:14 AM

fossten on January 26, 2016 at 9:18 AM

Why on earth would you do that?!

MMK on January 26, 2016 at 9:11 AM

He’s nicer than the rest of us.

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:16 AM

He ain’t that nice.

cozmo on January 26, 2016 at 9:18 AM

It’s all about ETHANOL in Iowa

gerrym51 on January 26, 2016 at 8:47 AM

gerrym51: I bet some KOOL_AID shipments make it through,
to the Iowa water supply.(sarc):)

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:20 AM

What will get Iowa caucus voters out to a meeting on a cold winter night?

It’s all about ETHANOL in Iowa

gerrym51 on January 26, 2016 at 8:47 AM

Don’t tell me they drink it.

Rix on January 26, 2016 at 8:56 AM

Asked and answered.

Lolo on January 26, 2016 at 9:21 AM

I just sent the suicide hotline number to Rove and the staff of Fox News.

Mr. Arrogant on January 26, 2016 at 9:09 AM

Why on earth would you do that?!

MMK on January 26, 2016 at 9:11 AM

The goodness of his heart…

… or maybe shlts and giggles.

Could be genuine concern that Rove’s knickers are in a twist because the Bushubio Scenario is slipping from his fingers…

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:21 AM

OT Cozmo

The airline found my bag, it’s now home. But I’m not. I’m up in Fairplay for three days covering a murder trial. South Park is beautiful county.

But after a week away in the Middle East, I’d rather be home right now. I need to decompress.

Walter L. Newton on January 26, 2016 at 9:22 AM

Country

Walter L. Newton on January 26, 2016 at 9:23 AM

As I stated several times and will be proven correct, Trump has a ceiling of around 25%. He has 100% name ID so if you don’t support him now, you probably aren’t going to support him later when the candidates start dropping out.

Ta111 on August 12, 2015 at 7:26 PM

fossten on January 26, 2016 at 9:25 AM

Could be genuine concern that Rove’s knickers are in a twist because the Bushubio Scenario is slipping from his fingers…

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:21 AM

After what he did to Christine O’Donnell, there is nothing that can happen to him that I won’t be happy about…

fossten on January 26, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Walter L. Newton on January 26, 2016 at 9:22 AM

Got a picture of little cozmo standing by the South Park monument off the road. It is beautiful there.

At least your bag is decompressing.

cozmo on January 26, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Cosmo

LOL. It will be like Christmas all over Wednesday night when I get home. I have some nice, expensive gifts, one for the home, one for my partner.

And I have a bunch of new magic to play with (picked that up at the Israeli Society of Magicians quarterly meeting).

Fun times.

Walter L. Newton on January 26, 2016 at 9:29 AM

CNN POLL OF POLLS

Jan. 5 – Jan. 21

Iowa Republicans’
Choice for Nominee in
2016

Trump 31%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 4%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore *

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:33 AM

ah, AP put the picture of the ” i can shoot someone and still get votes” as article picture.
sad… exploit of soundbites is very liberal IMO.

nathor on January 26, 2016 at 8:58 AM

You mean Ed

Braveheart on January 26, 2016 at 9:34 AM

After what he did to Christine O’Donnell, there is nothing that can happen to him that I won’t be happy about…

fossten on January 26, 2016 at 9:26 AM

Yeah, he’s good at what he does, but he is a mercenary. I’m not getting the feeling that Rove has Conservative ideals at the fore of his personal agenda.

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:37 AM

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:33 AM

I thought you were up to here with polls?

cozmo on January 26, 2016 at 9:37 AM

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:33 AM

I thought you were up to here with polls?

cozmo on January 26, 2016 at 9:37 AM

I am.

A poll of polls is just too much absurd poll-ish goodness to pass up.

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:41 AM

U S media lap dogs of the elite commies for gold and by evil choice.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on January 26, 2016 at 9:04 AM

APACHEWHOKNOWS:)

DPRK News Service [email protected]_News 14h14 hours ago

US province of Iowa votes in seven days. Voters face choice between heroic scholar Donald Trump and weak-footed Marxist Bernard Sanders.
=================

https://twitter.com/DPRK_News

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:42 AM

And I have a bunch of new magic to play with (picked that up at the Israeli Society of Magicians quarterly meeting).

Fun times.

Walter L. Newton on January 26, 2016 at 9:29 AM

Part the Red Sea with a magic wand, maybe?

whatcat on January 26, 2016 at 9:43 AM

Hold the phone,….EnDorsement Heads-Up:
—————————————–

2016 US elections
1m
Former New York Gov. George Pataki says he endorses Marco Rubio in presidential race – @GovernorPataki
See original on twitter.com
==============================

George E. Pataki Verified account [email protected]

I took a look at all the candidates & @marcorubio is the best person to bring us together – that’s why I’m endorsing him @AmericaNewsroom

https://twitter.com/GovernorPataki/status/691991265513205761

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:45 AM

And I have a bunch of new magic to play with (picked that up at the Israeli Society of Magicians quarterly meeting).

Fun times.

Walter L. Newton on January 26, 2016 at 9:29 AM

Can you turn Rachael Maddow into a frog?

.

.

Oops! That one’s been done.

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:46 AM

Breaking:

The latest hillbillyjimPoll™
(margin of error + or – 0%)

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:10 AM

hillbillyjim:

This reeks of KOOL_AID, I mean MoonShine:)
(yes, I’m kidding)

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:48 AM

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:13 AM

Dwarfs and Elves hardest hit?

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:17 AM

hillbillyjim: Lol,…you bad.:)

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:50 AM

George E. Pataki Verified account [email protected]

I took a look at all the candidates & @marcorubio is the best person to bring us together – that’s why I’m endorsing him @AmericaNewsroom

https://twitter.com/GovernorPataki/status/691991265513205761

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:45 AM

Just makes NO SENSE! How can an old guy like Pataki, who served as governor of New York for two terms, bring himself to support a wet-behind-the-ears first term senator?

Money is changing hands.

fossten on January 26, 2016 at 9:51 AM

hillbillyjim:

This reeks of KOOL_AID, I mean MoonShine:)
(yes, I’m kidding)

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:48 AM

I might have had a coupla mini-strokes shoveling too much snow. I wish y’all would keep that cold air up there in the Great White North.

༼( ͡⊙ ਊ ͡⊙)༽

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:52 AM

Yeah, I just picked up another 2 gallons of ‘spring water’. All set for the caucuses.

vnvet on January 26, 2016 at 9:57 AM

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:48 AM

I might have had a coupla mini-strokes shoveling too much snow. I wish y’all would keep that cold air up there in the Great White North.

༼( ͡⊙ ਊ ͡⊙)༽

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:52 AM

hillbillyjim: I’ll work on it. We’ve been lucky, not much snow.:)

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM

It’s all about ETHANOL in Iowa

Forgot the tag. *hic*

vnvet on January 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM

I just sent the suicide hotline number to Rove and the staff of Fox News.

Mr. Arrogant on January 26, 2016 at 9:09 AM

American Crossroads got $50,000 from Trump, so I don’t think that Rove will need a suicide hotline.

Gelsomina on January 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:45 AM

Just makes NO SENSE! How can an old guy like Pataki, who served as governor of New York for two terms, bring himself to support a wet-behind-the-ears first term senator?

Money is changing hands.

fossten on January 26, 2016 at 9:51 AM

fossten: Everyone is jocking in/for position.:)

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 10:02 AM

Yeah, I just picked up another 2 gallons of ‘spring water’. All set for the caucuses.

vnvet on January 26, 2016 at 9:57 AM

vnvet: Thats funny.:0

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 10:03 AM

For a historically unfriendly polling outfit, including Loras and Monmouth, Trump is doing well with them.

It looks like they assume that the GOP electorate will be the same as the 2012 or the 2008 one. It’s not tracking with other polls of the race in Iowa released over the last five days and is completely missing the Sarah Palin bounce that every other poll is picking up.

It also registered much higher support for Cruz than most other recent polling excluding the wonky Yougov polls, who has been ~23-26%.

NWConservative on January 26, 2016 at 10:05 AM

This Q-poll shows that a substantial portion of Trump’s support is coming from more regular voters. Those voters will take less effort to turn out next week, and are an indication that Trump’s appeal is broader within the party than some have presumed.

The base of the party has spoken… and we gave Trump the nomination right when he rode down the escalator in his first ad and showed he gets it on IMMIGRATION!

No matter what the pundits say and no matter how they spin it:

Immigration took out Cantor…

Immigration destroyed Rubio’s “surge”…

Immigration propelled Trump to frontrunner status and has kept him there…

Immigration will win Trump the presidency….

The GOPe REFUSED to get it! They received lots of money from their donors and were intent on delivering amnesty and unlimited illegal immigration to them.

They forgot one thing, however:

Money does NOT vote. People do.

Are you hearing us NOW???

TheRightMan on January 26, 2016 at 10:23 AM

Keep hope alive, you tyrannical morons.

It’s not about the voters, it’s about you.

Mary Christmas America

Schadenfreude on January 26, 2016 at 10:30 AM

The “smartest man in the world” will take his creepy ‘boyfriend’ on the road this Sat., proving that he’s stuck on stupid.

Schadenfreude on January 26, 2016 at 10:31 AM

Then McConnell will destroy Cruz next.

But, Trump gave to McConnell and to Cruz.

Merry Christmas America.

Schadenfreude on January 26, 2016 at 10:45 AM

All very interesting. But here’s the thing; going to caucus for the first time means you have to know something the process to start with (as well as where they are. The Des Moines area caucus training sessions when I was up there spoke volumes: Trump didn’t have a third as many attending as Cruz did- and Cruz’s folks need less of such training.
This poll- which polls likely caucus goers– is pretty close to my own projections from being on the ground there myself in several Iowa cities, going door-to-door with a team.

michaelo on January 26, 2016 at 11:09 AM

So, it turns out Cruz lied about not having health insurance. This is the type of mistake that is no big deal as a red state senator from Texas, but limits his general election electability. Cruz is good at preaching to the choir, but he is terrible at persuasion. These details matter if you want to actually repeal Obamacare. Not so much if you’re grandstanding.

In Reversal, Campaign Says Ted Cruz Does Have Health Insurance

Ted Cruz has health insurance, and he had it all along, his campaign said Friday night, reversing what the presidential candidate said a day earlier.

sauldalinsky on January 26, 2016 at 11:15 AM

If it would rid us of (mandated) Big Ethanol, Iowa should be replaced as the first primary state.

On the other hand, consumable ethanol gets my vote every time.

~~~~ urp ~~~~

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 11:21 AM

Just In:
————–

2016 US elections
2m
GOP Sen. Jeff Session’s communications director moving to be senior policy adviser for Donald Trump; Sessions helped craft Trump’s immigration policy – @KatyTurNBC
See original on twitter.com
===============================

Katy Tur [email protected] 10m10 minutes ago

#Breaking: Sen Jeff Session’s comms director moving to senior policy advisor for Trump. (Sessions helped craft Trump’s immigration policy)
===================

https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 11:36 AM

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 11:46 AM

Other than the usual smirking attitude of ridicule and undisguised contempt since she came out and endorsed Trump, the media has been silent about Sarah Palin’s obvious contribution to his surge in the polls.

otlset on January 26, 2016 at 12:10 PM

CNN/ORC Polling: …

canopfor on January 26, 2016 at 9:13 AM

Dwarfs and Elves hardest hit?

hillbillyjim on January 26, 2016 at 9:17 AM

Please don’t make a hobbit of this.

ReggieA on January 26, 2016 at 12:50 PM

Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire:

But Mr. Cruz had in fact been automatically enrolled by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas in another, narrower-network “health maintenance organization” plan that kept him covered in January. As we reported earlier, when we explained the headache on Friday, that’s what the insurer said it did for all customers in his situation — even if Mr. Cruz didn’t know it.

So Sen. Cruz is confused by the side-effects of Obamacare. Join the club, man. Join the club.

ReggieA on January 26, 2016 at 1:16 PM

michaelo on January 26, 2016 at 11:09 AM
Thank you for the on the ground report. We are hearing nothing for the national news media on this. It’s maddening.(God, I really hate polls.)

flackcatcher on January 26, 2016 at 4:28 PM