Fox: Trump extends lead in Iowa a week out from caucuses

posted at 12:41 pm on January 25, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

Have late-breaking voters in Iowa thrown in with the national frontrunner, or is this still a case of an electorate in flux? Even if it’s the latter, Donald Trump has to be pleased with the trend. The latest Fox News poll shows him extending his lead significantly with a week to go:

Trump bests Ted Cruz in Iowa and now receives 34 percent support among Republican caucus-goers.  Trump was at 23 percent in the Fox News Poll two weeks ago (January 4-7).

Cruz is second with 23 percent — down a touch from 27 percent.  Marco Rubio comes in third with 12 percent, down from 15 percent.  No others garner double-digit support.

Among caucus-goers who identify as “very” conservative, Cruz was up by 18 points over Trump earlier this month.  Now they each receive about a third among this group (Cruz 34 percent vs. Trump 33 percent).

There’s been a similar shift among white evangelical Christians.  Cruz’s 14-point advantage is now down to a 2-point edge.

This poll does survey likely caucus-goers, although it’s a relatively small sample of 378 likely GOP voters. The margin of error goes up to 5% — not overly high, but perhaps not as reliable as other polling in Iowa. Pollsters with larger samples have seen a much closer race in the same survey period, such as KBUR (687 LVs, 27/25 Cruz) and Loras College (500 LVs, 26/25 Trump). On the other hand, a CBS/YouGov poll of 492 LVs also showed Trump in the high thirties, but Cruz only trailing by five, 39/34 (links via RCP).

This may be an outlier, but it’s still worth noting as a significant shift in a single polling series. Trump’s support jumped eleven points, outside the MoE of the poll, from 23% to 34%. The gains came at the expense of three candidates; Cruz dropped four points, Rubio three, and Jeb Bush another three as well. Those changes are within the MoE, but if this reflects changes on the ground, it would show the field falling back from Trumpmentum.

Interestingly but not surprisingly, Trump also leads the pack in absolute opposition, with 20% of respondents saying they will refuse to vote for Trump. Bush comes in second with 14%, but Cruz isn’t far behind at 11%. Cruz leads the second-choice option by a wide margin, 22% to 15% for Rubio, but the combined 1st-2nd choice response still gives Trump the edge, 48/45.

As if that wasn’t good enough news for Trump, Fox’s latest New Hampshire poll shows his lead in the Granite State holding steady. Unlike Iowa, this poll shows no dramatic changes; Trump leads Cruz and Rubio 31/14/13 respectively, a statistically insignificant change from 33/12/15 two weeks earlier. Once again, Trump leads the absolutely opposed, with 26% of Republican primary voters declaring that they will never vote for him, eleven points higher than Bush. In one interesting difference between the two states, 27% of Iowa voters say they want a true conservative, while 27% of New Hampshire voters want a strong leader. At the moment, it appears Trump is filling both requirements, at least among his supporters.

To return to the question at the beginning, does this show that last-minute voters are breaking toward the leader? Perhaps, but that assumes all other things are equal, and that may not be the case here. Trump has not spent a significant amount of money during most of 2015 to build the kind of organization that will bring people to the caucuses and the polls. In a crowded field, it may possible to win with a plurality on the basis of earned media and top-level messaging alone, but that won’t work in a general election — and may not work in a caucus state where a tight time frame and cold weather play against impulse participation. Trump’s ground game remains the big question.


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Comment pages: 1 2

If that’s the case then you don’t want to hear my assessment of you..

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:42 PM

Don’t care. My nom just laughs at all of it.

The country is on fire and I have no time nor interest in what anyone thinks or calls any of us.

Note, we are cheerful and your kind act like bitter losers or martyrs.

Fight more cheerfully for your candidate.

On the other hand, do as you please, of course. It just doesn’t seem to pay off.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

The worst thing about Trump will be the negative impact to down-ticket conservatives.

WTNY on January 25, 2016 at 1:30 PM

Who do you believe is conservative?

The problem is that the GOP is not conservative. There may be a few (very few) conservatives in the GOP, but not enough to stop it from being a left-of-center party.

Which is why the “Trump is no real conservative” argument is so funny to me.

As if any of the others are conservative, or in the case of Cruz, could get anything conservative accomplished. The GOP is not going to allow anything conservative to happen.

Remember the sole conservative domestic idea of George W. Bush’s to reform SS to change it over to private accounts? What did the GOP controlled house and Senate do with that idea? Nothing.

But they passed a ton of liberal stuff under both W and Obama.

Yet we are arguing about who is the “real conservative” in the race. As if that is relevant.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:23 PM

His followers do not care about conservatism. They are irrational burn it down types.
They imagine him destroying the washing cartel, even though he tells them point blank that he will be making back room deals with the same group of people they want burned down.
The things you right is that Trump supported all those democrats, and that is where there is light to be shown. He is going to be going back to those Democrats to make deals with. Legislation will start at the liberal goal line and be negotiated from there. the Establishment, the uniparty, the GOPe are not going to be destroyed, those are the kinds of people Trump likes to deal with and Trump is the kind of guy they can deal with back. It is why he donated heavily to embattled McConnell when he was facing pressure from a Tea party candidate. It is he donated heavily to democrats all his life, until he decided to run as a Republican, the same as Bloomberg did. It was the path of least resistance, or as I would call it, the path filled with the easiest marks.

Constitutionalist on January 25, 2016 at 1:29 PM

I really do not understand why they are falling for the same song and dance that has seduced many for generations and they cannot see it…

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbm3ZmoF-6k&feature=youtu.be

They are easy marks for scammers.
Trump: Deport all illegal aliens. (at this point they are sold regardless of what the disclaimers are.) Then bring them back quickly under an expedited process.
Trump: Ban All Muslims. (at this point they are sold regardless of what the disclaimers are.) Short term, ended quickly, probably a couple months.
Trump: End cronyism! (at this point they are sold regardless of what the disclaimers are.) We should make them add more ethanol to the fuel to destroy more cars.

Constitutionalist on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Thank you kindly for helping me prove my point.

1. In most cases, the capacity of a given venue is a known quantity.

2. The Trump organization is either not placing controls on such events OR is over booking them – either way they aren’t properly running these events – is this for effect or incompetence?

Which is it?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:38 PM

LOL.

You are down to arguing that Trump should get bigger stadiums because he has to put people into overflow rooms.

LOL.

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 1:45 PM

Many Trump supporters also support Cruz, or did. You’re doing a fine job of alienating more than you are converting.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 1:45 PM

Will Glenn Beck give water to Donald Trump when this is over?

Oil Can on January 25, 2016 at 12:49 PM

Soccer Balls & Teddy Bears.

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 1:46 PM

You’re the same morons who assume that people who wait in line for 4 hours, in freezing cold, will not go to caucus.

But they are all incompetent “vulgarian howler monkeys”.

Keep this up, same as Williamson. You’ll be rewarded in kind.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 1:47 PM

2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus – Trump 33%, Cruz 26% (American Research Group 1/21-1/24) https://t.co/f99AegoOsQ— HuffPost Pollster (@pollsterpolls) January 25, 2016

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 1:47 PM

Constitutionalist on January 25, 2016 at 1:39 PM

So when Nancy Pelosi, James Clyburn, Barney Frank, et al heard racist slurs on their way to the capital from tea partiers, you bought that too?

Because they are about as credible as the memory of a La Raza Dreamer activist.

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 1:49 PM

Iowa GOP caucus: Trump 33%, +7 (+4 since 1/10) Cruz 26%, (+1) Rubio 11%, (+1) Carson 7%, (-1) Christie 4%, (-2) Paul 4% (+0) #ARG poll— Political polls (@PpollingNumbers) January 25, 2016

Looks like Sarah does still have some Mojo.

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 1:50 PM

What has Senator Trump done? Please tell us.

fossten on January 25, 2016 at 1:32 PM

Stupid argument. What has Trump told you he WILL DO?

Constitutionalist on January 25, 2016 at 1:33 PM

Trump bribes Senators and Congressman. He’s admitted it. So he essentially has enacted his will through Senators, Congressman, Mayors, etc.

It’s who he gave money to that is telling. Both Dems and Repubs.

libfreesMom on January 25, 2016 at 1:50 PM

2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus – Trump 33%, Cruz 26% (American Research Group 1/21-1/24) https://t.co/f99AegoOsQ— HuffPost Pollster (@pollsterpolls) January 25, 2016

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 1:47 PM

Whelp, it’s pretty much over Cruzers.

He had to win Iowa to remain relevant. But after he loses there and in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, he won’t have any following left for the SEC primaries.

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 1:51 PM

If that’s the case then you don’t want to hear my assessment of you..

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:42 PM

Don’t care. My nom just laughs at all of it.

The country is on fire and I have no time nor interest in what anyone thinks or calls any of us.

Note, we are cheerful and your kind act like bitter losers or martyrs.

Fight more cheerfully for your candidate.

On the other hand, do as you please, of course. It just doesn’t seem to pay off.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Perhaps for the good of the world, you should carefully consider your current convictions.

The country is on fire and I have no time nor interest in what anyone thinks or calls any of us. It’s worse than that – the World is on fire and the US is the fire department of last resort so to speak.

The outdated socialist ideology of the left should be ‘rightfully’ be laughed off the public stage at this point – along with their candidates.

Ergo, the right should be able to win with just about anyone.. so why not carefully consider the options and choose the best logical option Instead of yielding to an emotional choice in the matter?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:52 PM

Billionaire donors fund Cruz campaign to the tune of $36 million:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/25/cruz-presidential-bid-aided-by-billionaire-donors/?page=all#pagebreak

Of course, they aren’t looking for any favors.

bw222 on January 25, 2016 at 1:55 PM

Ergo, the right should be able to win with just about anyone.. so why not carefully consider the options and choose the best logical option Instead of yielding to an emotional choice in the matter?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:52 PM

Smug and condescending doesn’t do you justice. Do you believe acting in this manner persuades people?

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 1:57 PM

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:38 PM

You are down to arguing that Trump should get bigger stadiums because he has to put people into overflow rooms.

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 1:45 PM

Please dispense with the use of Strawman arguments such as that.

I am arguing that Trump should be able to competently plan a campaign event – if he cannot get competent people to do that, how is he going get competent people to handle the harder issues?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:57 PM

I say “pfft at the old “cold weather” line – like people in Iowa never go shopping or to the movies or to church when’t there’s snow on the ground.

corona79 on January 25, 2016 at 1:59 PM

Perhaps for the good of the world, you should carefully consider your current convictions.

All who run for office are charlatans.

The country is on fire and I have no time nor interest in what anyone thinks or calls any of us. It’s worse than that – the World is on fire and the US is the fire department of last resort so to speak.

Why don’t you tell us something new, you incredible elitist arrogant hack? You really assume that all the people are more stupid than you are.

The outdated socialist ideology of the left should be ‘rightfully’ be laughed off the public stage at this point – along with their candidates.

Ergo, the right should be able to win with just about anyone.. so why not carefully consider the options and choose the best logical option Instead of yielding to an emotional choice in the matter?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:52 PM

There is nothing “emotional” about any of it.

I want the R/D Uniparty completely destroyed.

I want the crony capitalists, who fund all in DC, and the crony media, who promote their Utopian ideals and PC, completely destroyed.

All else is entertainment, primarily from your kind.

If you’d promote how to do what it is that I’m after, I’d listen.

Meanwhile, continue to be arrogant and I’ll just keep going.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 1:59 PM

Trump bribes Senators and Congressman.
libfreesMom on January 25, 2016 at 1:50 PM

You’re right! In fact, he was caught in the act of bribing one of the biggest crooks in the Senate!!

whatcat on January 25, 2016 at 2:00 PM

Making America Subsidize Again.

Axeman on January 25, 2016 at 2:00 PM

Leave it to Hot Air to do a cover story and miss the main point. Trump’s sudden rise in polls happened due to a particular endorsement and there is nothing about the endorsee in the post.

promachus on January 25, 2016 at 2:01 PM

Ergo, the right should be able to win with just about anyone.. so why not carefully consider the options and choose the best logical option Instead of yielding to an emotional choice in the matter?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:52 PM

Smug and condescending doesn’t do you justice. Do you believe acting in this manner persuades people?

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 1:57 PM

Can we please base the discussion on the issues instead of false narratives that are irrelevant?

Which sounds like a better method:
1. Carefully considering the background and history of the candidates with regard to their future actions.

2. Acquiescing to an emotional appeal bereft of specifics?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:01 PM

That darn Palin caused a Trump bump.

Cries into a beer.

SpongePuppy on January 25, 2016 at 2:02 PM

If any of the other candidates would get Trump’s overflow crowd, the arrogant hack would brag about the numbers.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 2:03 PM

I sure don’t believe Trump gets better the more you look at him. If so, it just deepens my disappointment in this whole cycle. Instead I credit/blame Sarah Palin, whose endorsement still carries a lot of weight among conservatives and evangelicals, despite the vast majority of the pundits saying it had no effect.

LashRambo on January 25, 2016 at 2:05 PM

Your lies do not work here moron.

Constitutionalist on January 25, 2016 at 1:38 PM

In his own words, Cruz proposes 1) increasing H-1Bs by 500% and 2) doubling legal immigration and 3) a path to legalization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa2FU69HSag

Even a stooge like you should be able to understand Cruz own words.

bw222 on January 25, 2016 at 2:09 PM

Palin helps with a niche group of voters but she can’t swing 5 to 10%. Trump was surging in Iowa before her endorsement.

cimbri on January 25, 2016 at 2:10 PM

Can we please base the discussion on the issues instead of false narratives that are irrelevant?

Which sounds like a better method:
1. Carefully considering the background and history of the candidates with regard to their future actions.

2. Acquiescing to an emotional appeal bereft of specifics?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:01 PM

Well, let’s start by pointing out that you are using your ESP to determine that Trump supporters based their support entirely on emotional appeal and have not thought it through.

So, you see, you are condescending and arrogant and clueless. it isn’t persuasive. I’ve seen all the arguments you’ve made here before, and batteled them ad nauseam with others.

I haven’t seen you before. So, maybe you are new here and therefore don’t realize we’ve had this back-and-forth a million times.

Claiming to know my inner thinking is pretty damn arrogant on your part. Which is not persuasive and is pretty damn stupid.

I have carefully considered the candidates. I have made a choice. You may not like the choice. But you belittling me and telling me I am incapable of rationale thought is not going to persuade me to agree with you. If anything, it is going to harden my current choice.

so, although you believe yourself of great intellect and me and others like me of low intellect, it is you who are currently acting very foolishly.

I have put forward my reasons for supporting Trump many, many, many times in the past here at HA. Essentially, I trust him more on illegal immigration than I trust Cruz on the issue (and I would never vote for any of the other candidates in the general, so they don’t matter to me). I think illegal immigration is the biggest issue, by far, of the campaign. I also don’t think any conservative outcomes will happen regardless of who the GOP puts up – because the GOP is a left-of-center party and won’t allow any conservative outcomes.

However, if Cruz is the nominee, I’ll vote for him in the general. that is, if enough anti-trump people haven’t so tarnished Cruz in my mind by calling me an idiot. If you keep at it, you may make me sit out if Cruz is the nominee.

I base my belief that I’ll trust Trump more on illegal immigration on the fact that he centered his campaign around it and has stuck to it. Cruz, meanwhile, was for amnesty until forced rightward by Trump’s candidacy. I think the person who centered their campaign on being anti-amnesty is more likely to hold true to the position than the candidate forced to move rightward on the issue during the campaign.

Do I believe Trump is conservative? no. Has Trump changed positions over the years? Yes. So has every other candidate.

I like Trump for a few other reasons – his ability to take on the media, his ability to excite voters, his taking on the GOPe, and his being anti-TPP.

But, immigration is the main event.

So, can you get off your soap-box? You may disagree with me, but don’t tell me I haven’t thought about these things. That’s just stupidly blind arrogance on your part.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:12 PM

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:12 PM

Then please elucidate Trumps positions on the various issues facing the world.

Be sure to include plenty EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites in your answers.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:16 PM

Then please elucidate Trumps positions on the various issues facing the world.

Be sure to include plenty EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites in your answers.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:16 PM

I suppose I couldn’t hope for reading comprehension from you.

You really are an arrogant idiot. Like I said, keep it up, you’ll drive me away from Cruz if he manages to win the nomination.

Maybe if you go back and read what I wrote, and try to understand it, you’ll one day understand what I said. Until then, it’s no use bothering with someone of such little intelligence.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:18 PM

Not to worry Cruzaders, the coveted Justin Trudeau endorsement is just hours away. With Justin at his back Ted will surely squirt to the top once again.

A.T. Tapman on January 25, 2016 at 2:18 PM

https://www.instagram.com/p/BA-L4iDGhdN/

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 2:28 PM

Then please elucidate Trumps positions on the various issues facing the world.

Be sure to include plenty EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites in your answers.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:16 PM

donaldjtrump.com

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 2:33 PM

Then please elucidate Trumps positions on the various issues facing the world.

Be sure to include plenty EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites in your answers.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:16 PM

Monkeytoe: I suppose I couldn’t hope for reading comprehension from you.

What is that supposed to mean – did you articulate all of his positions on the issues backed up by EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites?

Monkeytoe: You really are an arrogant idiot.

Nice of you to avoid the suspense and delve into the gutter with childish insults in the first few responses.

Monkeytoe: Maybe if you go back and read what I wrote, and try to understand it, you’ll one day understand what I said. Until then, it’s no use bothering with someone of such little intelligence.

That’s the problem for you – aside from discussing his immigration policy, your diatribe is bereft of discussion on the other issues as I requested.

Perhaps it would do you well to take you own advice and ‘go back and read’ what you wrote – and what you failed to write before issuing such childish responses.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:34 PM

Be sure to include plenty EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites in your answers.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:16 PM

donaldjtrump.com

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 2:33 PM

Did you miss the EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites part?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:35 PM

Iowa train wreck

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 2:35 PM

No one gives a damn about you, except you.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 2:36 PM

Did you miss the EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites part?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:35 PM

donaldjtrump.com

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 2:38 PM

Did you miss the EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites part?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:35 PM

ROFL.

No one has to provide you with justification for their support for a candidate. They can vote for any of the candidates that they choose.

Just like you can.

lineholder on January 25, 2016 at 2:38 PM

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:35 PM

ROFL.

No one has to provide you with justification for their support for a candidate. They can vote for any of the candidates that they choose.

Just like you can.

lineholder on January 25, 2016 at 2:38 PM

No, the issue revolves around the man’s positions and what he is going to do.

Are you having trouble articulating those positions?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:41 PM

Torcert,

I’ll respond this one more time, to try and reach any intelligence you may have.

What is that supposed to mean – did you articulate all of his positions on the issues backed up by EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites?

No. It means I stated very clearly in my comment at 2:12 why I support Trump. Instead of responding to that you gave me an order to present you something else. Now, if you can stay with me here – let’s talk about this. I said “I support Trump because of X”. Instead of responding to that in any way, you ORDERED me to collect up excerpts of links of ALL OF HIS POSITIONS.

If you don’t understand the disconnect here – show this to a friend. I’m sure you know someone with reading comprehension that can explain the problem to you.

Monkeytoe: You really are an arrogant idiot.

Nice of you to avoid the suspense and delve into the gutter with childish insults in the first few responses.

You’ve spent an entire comment thread explaining how Trump supporters are all idiots. And you want to complain that I gave it back to you? Please.

Monkeytoe: Maybe if you go back and read what I wrote, and try to understand it, you’ll one day understand what I said. Until then, it’s no use bothering with someone of such little intelligence.

That’s the problem for you – aside from discussing his immigration policy, your diatribe is bereft of discussion on the other issues as I requested.

I explained to you my support of Trump and that it is based solely on illegal immigration. What part of that do you have trouble understanding? I have reasons for being a one issue voter, but you are not intelligent enough to bother explaining them to and it was unwarranted in that comment.

Also, how is it you believe you have the authority to order me to explain all of Trump’s positions?

Perhaps it would do you well to take you own advice and ‘go back and read’ what you wrote – and what you failed to write before issuing such childish responses.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:34 PM

In context, this is hilarious. The funny thing is, you really don’t understand how dumb this back-and-forth makes you look. I bet you truly believe yourself some kind of towering intellect.

Funny.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:42 PM

Billionaire donors fund Cruz campaign to the tune of $36 million:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/25/cruz-presidential-bid-aided-by-billionaire-donors/?page=all#pagebreak

Of course, they aren’t looking for any favors.

bw222 on January 25, 2016 at 1:55 PM

You’re right. Let’s nominate the guy who buys the politcians.

Do you hear yourself?

portlandon on January 25, 2016 at 2:43 PM

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:35 PM

donaldjtrump.com

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 2:38 PM

Having trouble understanding the meaning of the word ‘EXCERPT’?

One would hope that those poised to vote for Trump would know everything about what he intends to do.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:43 PM

No, the issue revolves around the man’s positions and what he is going to do.

Are you having trouble articulating those positions?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:41 PM

I don’t have to justify my choice of candidate to you or to anyone else.

lineholder on January 25, 2016 at 2:45 PM

One would hope that his organization would be better at running an event so people wouldn’t have to be turned away….

Ferret on January 25, 2016 at 1:04 PM

Who is this ankle-biter?

Conservative-Libertarian with a touch of class……… Hobbies: Closing with the enemies of freedom and destroying them.. rhetorically of course

Joseph K on January 25, 2016 at 2:46 PM

You’re right. Let’s nominate the guy who buys the politcians.

Do you hear yourself?

portlandon on January 25, 2016 at 2:43 PM

Who is better in this context – the buyer or the seller?

that’s the point. the argument was made that Trump is bad because he admittedly used donations to buy influence with politicians in the past.

Someone else pointed out that Cruz looks pretty bought based on donations from billionaires.

So, who is better. The buyer or the seller. Or, is it a silly argument considering all the politicians are for sale so there is no “righteous” person to chose from?

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:47 PM

I am a Trump Howler Monkey, but I do like Ted, Canadians are usually nice people if a bit low energy. I have no problem voting for Ted if the Trumpster evaporates.

I did watch the ordeal with the loon Glen Beck, my most profound sympathy to Ted. Perhaps they should have handled more snakes. Be of good cheeer!!!

A.T. Tapman on January 25, 2016 at 2:48 PM

Having trouble understanding the meaning of the word ‘EXCERPT’?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:43 PM

donaldjtrump.com

You can take as many ‘excerpts’ as you want from there. I’m pretty sure that’s why his positions are laid out for people to see.

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 2:49 PM

One would hope that his organization would be better at running an event so people wouldn’t have to be turned away….

Ferret on January 25, 2016 at 1:04 PM

that’s true, but if we are judging a candidate’s credentials for president based on how well their campaign works, isn’t the candidate that gets the most votes automatically the best candidate?

In other words, a campaign exists to get votes, not run rallies. Rallies are a tool toward getting votes.

so, the end result of who gets the most votes shows who has the best organization, no?

If that is your criteria for choosing who to vote for, I mean.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:49 PM

Be sure to include plenty EXCERPTS and Links from authentic reference sites in your answers.

Ferret on January 25, 2016 at 2:16 PM

Been there, done that. Many of us have stopped after repeating ourselves over and over for dim-bulb anti-Trumpers who are not really interested anywqay. Now we head straight to ridicule, which is more fun.

Conservative-Libertarian with a touch of class……… Hobbies: Closing with the enemies of freedom and destroying them.. rhetorically of course

Joseph K on January 25, 2016 at 2:50 PM

You’ve spent an entire comment thread explaining how Trump supporters are all idiots.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:42 PM

Really? ‘an entire comment thread’

Please cite where I did used that pejorative – from my assessment it would seem like that is your failing.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:52 PM

No, the issue revolves around the man’s positions and what he is going to do.

Are you having trouble articulating those positions?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:41 PM

I don’t have to justify my choice of candidate to you or to anyone else.

lineholder on January 25, 2016 at 2:45 PM

Then what is your criteria for your voting for the man?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:54 PM

I am horrified by Trump, but I understand it. The anger is so deep and so unsatisfied by what Obama has done and the lack of ability to do anything about it.

I choose to see the glass half full, I also, hope Trump is a good guy at heart. That he does love this country and will not do damage. At least not on purpose.

I choose that attitude, because I don’t have the answers myself.

Many of the things that made me support Romney, are true of Trump, even more true of Trump: He can make and stick by budgets. He knows that hidden costs (not just in money) change projects beyond recognition. Successful business people can cut through falseness and get to bottom lines… or they fail.

Trump has both failed and succeeded. So he knows what failure feels like and looks like. He knows how to avoid it, how to pivot to success instead of staying on a path to failure. He knows you have to make changes early and fast. That is very valuable knowledge.

That is what I thought Romney could do that no one else running could.

I wish there was more examination of Trump’s businesses, did he waste money? Did his project come how he planned in the beginning. How did he handle the inevitable set backs? He did succeed at many things, so he must have gotten through tough decisions in a way that kept crews on projects, made people loyal.

I think we are in for a kind of President we have never had. And since I can’t really change it… I am looking forward to it.

petunia on January 25, 2016 at 2:59 PM

Monkeytoe that’s true, but if we are judging a candidate’s credentials for president based on how well their campaign works, isn’t the candidate that gets the most votes automatically the best candidate?

Are you aware that those are two separate actions?

In other words, a campaign exists to get votes, not run rallies. Rallies are a tool toward getting votes.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:49 PM

No, it’s indicative of the organizational skills of it’s leader – wouldn’t such occurrences indicate something is wrong with the man’s organizational skills.
Isn’t that supposed to be part of Trump’s claim to fame?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:06 PM

Please cite where I did used that pejorative – from my assessment it would seem like that is your failing.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:52 PM

Ohh. That is rich. Please.

I really do not understand why they are falling for the same song and dance that has seduced many for generations and they cannot see it…

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Implies people are idiots.

so why not carefully consider the options and choose the best logical option Instead of yielding to an emotional choice in the matter?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:52 PM

States that trump supporters have not carefully considered options using logic but instead are acting emotionally.

Can we please base the discussion on the issues instead of false narratives that are irrelevant?

Which sounds like a better method:
1. Carefully considering the background and history of the candidates with regard to their future actions.

2. Acquiescing to an emotional appeal bereft of specifics?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 2:01 PM

Again stating anyone disagreeing with you is simply emotional, not able to carefully considering . . .

I won’t bother getting more. You may think your barbs are clever and we don’t understand them, but you are fooling yourself.

This goes back to my very first comment to you, wherein I pointed out that you are essentially calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot and asking you if you truly believed your were being persuasive. I guess I have my answer. Maybe you aren’t smart enough to understand that telling people they aren’t thinking logically and are only acting on emotion is an insult. Maybe you don’t realize you are insulting people. Based on our back-and-forth, I can see where you might not understand the implications of what you write.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:11 PM

Baggi on January 25, 2016 at 1:12 PM
Excellent post. The polling has been worse than awful early in this cycle. In the early two and South Carolina, what I have been told on the ground is completely at odds with the polling, and the media stories coming from those states. But it’s equally possible that the public polling to date grossly understates Trump’s level of support, and those supporters will come out in Iowa on February 1. History does not supported that, but voters make history, and to deny that is stupid. And it’s worth remembering that this is not a three person race, no matter what the media and us commenter’s say. This early, there are still too many X factors in the primaries.

flackcatcher on January 25, 2016 at 3:12 PM

You’ve spent an entire comment thread explaining how Trump supporters are all idiots.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:42 PM

Really? ‘an entire comment thread’

Please cite where I did used that pejorative – from my assessment it would seem like that is your failing.

I’m still waiting for an answer…

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:12 PM

Are you aware that those are two separate actions?

In other words, a campaign exists to get votes, not run rallies. Rallies are a tool toward getting votes.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 2:49 PM

No, it’s indicative of the organizational skills of it’s leader – wouldn’t such occurrences indicate something is wrong with the man’s organizational skills.
Isn’t that supposed to be part of Trump’s claim to fame?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:06 PM

Wow, you truly don’t understand simple things. You are arguing that his campaign is not competent because of some rallies. I point out that the purpose of a campaign is to get votes, so if he gets the most votes, it shows a competent campaign.

And your response is “they are two different things”.

Interesting.

So, if he turned some people away from a rally because too many attended, he is an incompetent failure. But if he gets the most votes, it doesn’t prove competence?

Again, your “logic” is mighty.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:13 PM

Really? ‘an entire comment thread’

Please cite where I did used that pejorative – from my assessment it would seem like that is your failing.

I’m still waiting for an answer…

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:12 PM

My answer is in a comment above. Because you are dense, you likely won’t understand it.

You truly are not that bright.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:14 PM

Come on, let’s talk about his conservative principles on the three core issues Donald Trump is about; immigration, national security and jobs. He is the most conservative guy out there and he is setting the agenda

GarryinAz66

Lol, Oh Garry, unfortunately for you, you’re on a website with rightys activists who actually KNOW what/who Donald is. We’re just haggling over the price now aren’t we lol?

Trump is FAR less conservative than Cruz, and far less knowledgeable. Most importantly he’s far less principled and honest.

Here’s a couple of minutes of your mans RECENT flip flops and lefty positions, INCLUDING immigration

http://www.mediaite.com/online/anti-trump-super-pac-releases-brutal-new-ad-on-his-history-of-liberal-positions/

Charliecrown on January 25, 2016 at 3:15 PM

Trump reaches 48% on @PredictWise, another new high. pic.twitter.com/2fgaa29ukX— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) January 25, 2016

TheMadHessian on January 25, 2016 at 3:16 PM

Monkeytoe Implies people are idiots.

It doesn’t matter what you want to claim it implies, that fact is you can’t show where I’ve used that pejorative, much less ‘an entire comment thread’ to boot
Do you know what that makes you?

This goes back to my very first comment to you, wherein I pointed out that you are essentially calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot and asking you if you truly believed your were being persuasive. I guess I have my answer. Maybe you aren’t smart enough to understand that telling people they aren’t thinking logically and are only acting on emotion is an insult. Maybe you don’t realize you are insulting people. Based on our back-and-forth, I can see where you might not understand the implications of what you write.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:11 PM

And once again you double down on the same thing – once must play to their strengths I suppose.

Let’s face it – you were unable to articulate reason to vote for the man aside from the immigration issue, thus the conclusion can be reached.

I happen to agree with him on that issue, but it has to be something beyond that and there are other candidates who have roughly the same stance but would be better choices over all.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:29 PM

So, if he turned some people away from a rally because too many attended, he is an incompetent failure. But if he gets the most votes, it doesn’t prove competence?

Again, your “logic” is mighty.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:13 PM

No, he should know 2 numbers Before the rallies – the number allowed by the fire code and the number that are slated to attend.

Do you understand that?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:32 PM

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:12 PM

My answer is in a comment above. Because you are dense, you likely won’t understand it.

You truly are not that bright.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:14 PM

No the answer should have where I used that pejorative – none was forthcoming.

Try again.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:33 PM

No, he should know 2 numbers Before the rallies – the number allowed by the fire code and the number that are slated to attend.

Do you understand that?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:32 PM

You really don’t get it. Yes, he overbooks. And likely does so on purpose to make the events appear bigger.

You argue this makes him competent. I argue that the purpose of a campaign is to win the votes, so if he wins the votes, it proves the campaigns competence.

You seem incapable of understand that and are digging further and further into an idiotic argument.

“He overbooked and therefore is incompetent.” OK, let’s assume that is true. If he wins more votes than all the other campaigns, doesn’t that prove his campaign is the most competent?

That you think you can wiggle out of admitting the truth of that last statement if amusing.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:42 PM

No the answer should have where I used that pejorative – none was forthcoming.

Try again.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:33 PM

Oh, parsing. Clever. You very clearly implied we are all idiots, so it is not an insult.

Try again.

You truly are not that bright, are you?

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:43 PM

It doesn’t matter what you want to claim it implies, that fact is you can’t show where I’ve used that pejorative, much less ‘an entire comment thread’ to boot
Do you know what that makes you?

Ahh, parsing. You clearly imply something than claim you didn’t mean it. too funny. Please keep trying. Explain to me again how I am only acting on emotion while you are using the pure light of reason.

And once again you double down on the same thing – once must play to their strengths I suppose.

Let’s face it – you were unable to articulate reason to vote for the man aside from the immigration issue, thus the conclusion can be reached.

Thus what conclusion can be reached? I STATED that I am only supporting him on the immigration issue. You don’t have to conclude anything. Are you that dumb that you don’t understand that? Seriously? I said I was a single issue voter this time around. And you think you cleverly deduced that? What is wrong with you? Seriously, I come out and positively aver something and your want to claim that you made some shocking revelation? Do you understand how discussions work?

I happen to agree with him on that issue, but it has to be something beyond that and there are other candidates who have roughly the same stance but would be better choices over all.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:29 PM

I explained why this isn’t so. You may not agree with it, but I explained it pretty clearly. Cruz was for amnesty until forced rightward by Trump. Thus, I don’t trust him as much on the issue. Between the guy supporting “Gang of 8” and for legalization until last month and the guy who staked his entire campaign on deportation – I’ll take the guy who staked his campaign on deportation.

As far as “beyond that”. The GOP is a leftist party. It won’t let anything conservative get accomplished. So, whether Cruz or someone else is more conservative on education or spending, it doesn’t really matter.

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:48 PM

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:43 PM

Ah yes, trying to pretend that which is not the case.

Let’s face it – If you could have provided that you would have so by now.
And on top of that you double down on your projection.

So much for your credibility

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 3:56 PM

Monkeytoe Yes, he overbooks. And likely does so on purpose to make the events appear bigger.

So it’s an illusion then?

Monkeytoe: I argue that the purpose of a campaign is to win the votes, so if he wins the votes, it proves the campaigns competence.

So the ends justify the means? Where have we heard that before?

Monkeytoe on January 25, 2016 at 3:42 PM

I’ll just leave the rest of your childish diatribe alone knowing that it only has negative effect on Your intellectual integrity.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 4:01 PM

I find Trump’s polling in Florida much more impressive than Iowa and NH.

Florida is much more in tune with the rest of America than the other two.

I’m hoping Cruz takes Iowa as I’d like to see T+C stay at the top and close any opening for the rest, who are useless or worse than same in my opinion.

Where did the new minimum-wage operative come from? Sounds like a bore already.

Meremortal on January 25, 2016 at 4:44 PM

I really do not understand why they are falling for the same song and dance that has seduced many for generations and they cannot see it…

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Which can be said about Jeb, Christie, Huckabee, Cruz, Santorum, Praul Rubio etc. etc. etc.

animal02 on January 25, 2016 at 5:00 PM

I am horrified by Trump, but I understand it. The anger is so deep and so unsatisfied by what Obama has done and the lack of ability to do anything about it.

petunia on January 25, 2016 at 2:59 PM

While I hate what Obolo has done its what the GOP has done that has created Trump not Obola.

wifarmboy on January 25, 2016 at 5:20 PM

Please dispense with the use of Strawman arguments such as that.

I am arguing that Trump should be able to competently plan a campaign event – if he cannot get competent people to do that, how is he going get competent people to handle the harder issues?

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:57 PM

Please dispense with the butthurt. I know your angry at the world, but complaining that Trump won’t fill two stadiums instead of turning people away is insane at best.

What a horrible thing to have happening to a candidate. The horrors.

So very sorry. LOL…

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Ar we playing whack a mole with new posters now?

cimbri on January 25, 2016 at 5:40 PM

I really do not understand why they are falling for the same song and dance that has seduced many for generations and they cannot see it…

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:44 PM

Which can be said about Jeb, Christie, Huckabee, Cruz, Santorum, Praul Rubio etc. etc. etc.

animal02 on January 25, 2016 at 5:00 PM

Not necessarily the case – other candidates have be much more consistent in how they work within the government.

And they have more to say than meaningless platitudes like ‘Make America great again’.

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 5:51 PM

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 1:57 PM

Please dispense with the butthurt. I know your angry at the world, but complaining that Trump won’t fill two stadiums instead of turning people away is insane at best.

What a horrible thing to have happening to a candidate. The horrors.

So very sorry. LOL…

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Project much?

Perhaps you should read what I had wrote about and try discussing the issues like an adult – it will help you immensely in your future endeavours..

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 5:55 PM

If any of the other candidates would get Trump’s overflow crowd, the arrogant hack would brag about the numbers.

Schadenfreude on January 25, 2016 at 2:03 PM

So much of image making is visual and the narrative…..what makes a better visual and narrative…..overflow crowds or thousands of empty seats. The hack is clueless.

animal02 on January 25, 2016 at 6:57 PM

Please dispense with the butthurt. I know your angry at the world, but complaining that Trump won’t fill two stadiums instead of turning people away is insane at best.

What a horrible thing to have happening to a candidate. The horrors.

So very sorry. LOL…

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Project much?

Perhaps you should read what I had wrote about and try discussing the issues like an adult – it will help you immensely in your future endeavours..

Torcert on January 25, 2016 at 5:55 PM

What am I projecting? My candidate is trouncing yours and skyrocketing in Iowa. Yours is doing the Cruz and Beck clownshow barnstorming through Iowa.

As for your “points,” I discarded them outright because they were brought forth by a butthurt Cruz supporter who is complaining that Trump had to turn people away from his stadium full of people.

NWConservative on January 25, 2016 at 10:46 PM

Like ive said….im done arguing with the dishonest members of the Trump lie side show.

I just had to say, though. Ive never seen any group of so-called GOP supporters, embarrass themselves in this way.

Their continued delusion about what Trump stands for, utterly baseless confidence in a lifetime crony capitalist, junk bond user, who claims bankruptcy at any moment things get difficult…..

….has proven that a large portion of the “right” is clearly no different than “left”.

Bent on celebrity worship, steered by childish emotion, and quick to throw a tantrum at the first sign of opposition.

Sure, losing another Presidential election to a Democrat probably ends any hope of turning the country around in our lifetime…if ever.

The fact that a charlatan, meat head, who spent his life supporting radical leftist causes and the worst kind of politicians….is being allowed to destroy the conservative movement…..that’s just unbelievable.

Stay loud and proud, Trump lovers. At least ill be entertained by clowns as my country burns.

alecj on January 26, 2016 at 1:13 AM

Iowa 2008: Mike Huckabee.

Iowa 2012: Rick Santorum.

Iowa hasn’t been very good at picking nominees lately.

Texas, on the other hand…

TBSchemer on January 26, 2016 at 1:16 AM

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