Here we go: Trump 37, Hillary 36, Bloomberg 13 in new Morning Consult national poll

posted at 2:41 pm on January 22, 2016 by Allahpundit

The only way this horrible campaign can end for conservative anti-Trumpers, I think, is with a third-party candidacy that’s even more irritating than Trump’s is. It’d be like a twist at the end of an especially creepy Twilight Zone episode, where a guy sells his soul to the devil for another choice besides Trump and Hillary — and it turns out to be Mike Bloomberg. “Submitted for your approval: A man who’ll never drink more than 12 ounces of soda in one sitting again. A lesson in being careful what you wish for … in the Twilight Zone.”

Since Bloomberg himself reportedly commissioned a poll along these lines not long ago, let’s take these numbers semi-seriously.

mc

The million-dollar (well, billion-dollar) question: Who does Bloomberg hurt more? As it turns out, Hillary. Without him in the race, Hillary narrowly leads Trump, 44/42. Even better news for Trump fans is that Trump does better against Hillary in a three-way race than either Cruz or Rubio does. Against Cruz, Hillary leads 38/34/11; against Rubio, it’s 38/33/10. That’s partly a function of the fact that Cruz and Rubio are lesser known to Americans than Trump is, but if you’re looking for evidence that he’ll give her a tougher race by bringing in heterodox Democrats and independents than a more dogmatic right-winger will, there you go.

That said, this is a surprisingly encouraging poll for Bloomy. Don’t be daunted by the fact that he’s nearly 25 points behind. He’s already in double digits without having spent a penny promoting himself, and both Trump and Hillary are north of 50 percent on unfavorability. Bloomberg’s overall favorable rating is 30/26, which leaves plenty of room to grow. (In fact, he’s +13 among Democrats compared to -9 among Republicans, further proof that he’s a bigger threat to Hillary than to Trump.) If he spent $250 million in ads, say, to introduce himself to American voters, how long would it be before he’s polling above 20 percent with Trump and Hillary each in the low 30s? That’s what political junkies would call “striking distance.” He’s played this game successfully before too on a smaller scale. In 2001, as a political novice and newly minted Republican, he dropped $50 million in Democratic New York City to become mayor in an upset. Eight years later, with his poll numbers sagging, he spent $102 million to narrowly secure reelection as an independent. Trump has been oddly reluctant to dig deep into his wallet to destroy the opposition. Bloomberg wouldn’t be. The question, really, is whether there’s any chance that he could end up with the most electoral votes in a three-way race. The big blue states will go for Hillary — with the possible exception of New York. The big red ones will go for Trump. Are there enough purples to give Bloomberg a lead?

Here’s an outside-the-box third-party idea for you, and I’m not just saying this because I’m the Internet’s premier Romney-trollblogger: What if Mitt got in this summer as an independent alternative to Trump and Hillary? Finally he could be the right-leaning centrist he’s always been instead of the “severely conservative” poseur he’s had to be in the past. His name recognition is already sky high nationally after 2012 so he wouldn’t need to spend as much as Bloomberg would to get voters to notice him. He’d undoubtedly help Hillary by pulling votes from Trump, but maybe anti-Trumpers will have reached a point come June or July where they think it’s more important to start setting up an alternative to a Trump-dominated GOP than to keep Clinton out of the White House, especially if the alternative is President Trump. Romney could even argue, mostly but not entirely implausibly, that he stands a chance of winning the election outright by convincing Republican voters this fall to unite behind him instead of the nominee Trump. Lots of political insiders seem to think it’s a fait accompli that there’ll be a third-party candidate if Trump and Hillary emerge this summer, but a third-party candidate will only matter if he’s a brand name. How many other viable brand names are there in national politics right now who aren’t running this year apart from Romney?


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Comments

…Bmore?

JugEarsButtHurt on January 22, 2016 at 4:01 PM

…..and there you have it, Trump can only get 37% of the vote (the MC poll is usually the most generous to Trump). How many of the Bloomberg voters would ever defect to Trump? I would guess it’s closer to 0% than 5%.

Tater Salad on January 22, 2016 at 3:57 PM

Quite a lot will do; they are fellow New Yawk authoritarian capitalists, after all, the only thing different being their gun policy. In fact, had you been mentally capable of reading the entire post you’d know exactly how many.

Rix on January 22, 2016 at 4:01 PM

What if Mitt got in this summer as an independent alternative to Trump and Hillary?

How does an independent alternative, that waits until the summer (June 20th), get on the state ballots of South Dakota, Texas, and North Carolina?

And if one waited until summer to start gathering the necessary signatures, you can ‘forget about it’ in many other states.

The deadlines are here …

Ridiculous, this hypothetical.

Carnac on January 22, 2016 at 4:01 PM

Reality check

Levin’s family member works for Cruz.

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2016 at 2:44 PM

So? Who gives a shit?

Blue Lou Boyle on January 22, 2016 at 4:07 PM

Here’s an outside-the-box third-party idea for you, and I’m not just saying this because I’m the Internet’s premier Romney-trollblogger: What if Mitt got in this summer as an independent alternative to Trump and Hillary?

Be true to your school :-) This may be one of the least-improbable Romney scenarios you’ve presented in years. I like it.

FogDog on January 22, 2016 at 4:18 PM

Hillary won’t be the Democratic nominee, though. How does Trump stack up against Sanders?

Caiwyn on January 22, 2016 at 4:23 PM

A G.O.P. Majority in New Hampshire Pipes Up: We’re Not for Donald Trump

By MICHAEL BARBARO and ASHLEY PARKERJAN. 22, 2016

These are the lamentations of the 68 Percent — the significant majority of Republican voters here who are immune to Mr. Trump’s charms and entreaties, according to a battery of voter interviews on Thursday at campaign events for his rivals.

The sample was taken from people who support other GOP candidates, and were actually in attendance at events sponsored by/for other GOP candidates when polled. Yet, this ‘poll’ is being represented as a reflection of the entire pool of eligible GOP voters.

This is an example of the dearth of quality and veracity at the NYTimes these days. They must be in stiff competition for the title of leading NYC tabloid.

thatsafactjack on January 22, 2016 at 4:31 PM

If Romney ran, how would the GOP ever win a national election again?

The problem with all these scenarios where a republican runs third party to stop Trump is that the GOP in essence divorces itself from its voter base.

Sure, not all will stay away in the future. But enough will.

It would be committing suicide as a national party. Sure, they would still be competitive in solid “R” districts. But in competitive districts, the GOP would likely lose enough votes to not be competitive any longer.

The Trump phenomena is based on voter dissatisfaction with the GOP. If the GOP doubles down on what makes the voters hate it – how do they recover from that?

Monkeytoe on January 22, 2016 at 2:59 PM

Trump voters won’t switch to another candidate unless them become unhappy with Trump, so at best a third party candidate in the general picks up some undecideds and maybe some of those who have decided that Trump intends not to cure the disease but rather to manage it. If trump can consolidate Republican support and attract enough independents to secure the Presidency, then it’s nobody’s fault but his own.

If a half-decent third party candidate is on the ballot, I’ll vote for them. If not, I’ll write one in. No more holding my nose and pulling the lever for a CINO.

Immolate on January 22, 2016 at 4:31 PM

Caiwyn on January 22, 2016 at 4:23 PM

Really? tRump would have no problem taking down crazy Bernie SantaClaus.

MJBrutus on January 22, 2016 at 4:33 PM


Here’s a list of Bernie Sanders’ $19.6 trillion in tax hikes

By Philip Klein (@philipaklein) • 1/19/16 12:01 AM

Scroll down for list of Sanders’ proposed tax hikes.

Not to mention Sanders said he wants to raise the top tax rate to 90%.

thatsafactjack on January 22, 2016 at 4:36 PM

Immolate on January 22, 2016 at 4:31 PM

Hold my nose? I will dress in MOPP gear, if needed, to vote for anyone opposing Pantsuit Satan on the ballot.

MJBrutus on January 22, 2016 at 4:36 PM

Really? tRump would have no problem taking down crazy Bernie SantaClaus.

MJBrutus on January 22, 2016 at 4:33 PM

I’m not convinced *any* of the Republican candidates would have an easy time against him. He’s got the same base of support as Obama, and once he’s got the nod the media will paint him as the second coming of Jesus in exactly the same way they did with Obama. I think he’ll actually be a lot tougher to beat than Hillary.

Caiwyn on January 22, 2016 at 4:39 PM

Individual healthcare premium tax — $2.1 trillion

In addition to the business premium tax, Sanders would propose a 2.2 percent tax on individual income to raise another $210 billion per year to finance his healthcare plan.

thatsafactjack on January 22, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Caiwyn on January 22, 2016 at 4:39 PM

He’s a dead red commie. I don’t see it. In fact, I see a brokered convention before the D-Rats even let him get the nomination.

MJBrutus on January 22, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Social Security tax hike — $1.2 trillion

To pay for his plan to expand Social Security, Sanders has proposed removing the cap on payroll taxes on income exceeding $250,000 per year. In 2016, the Social Security payroll tax only applies to earnings below $118,500.

thatsafactjack on January 22, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Trump/Bloomberg…2016

right2bright on January 22, 2016 at 4:42 PM

Trump’s unfavorables exposed in this poll…

right2bright on January 22, 2016 at 4:44 PM

It is simply a matter of survival. Americans want to SURVIVE.

There are two existential issues facing The Republic: massive illegal border invasion/amnesty, and islamic terrorism/hijrah (invasion by migration).

ALL OTHER ISSUES ARE SUBORDINATE! Under an “Aztlan Caliphate”, nobody will care about ethanol, Kelo, schlonging, “true conservative”, blah, blah, blah.

If an avowed socialist + a guy who conservatives complain isn’t a conservative are leading in polls, is this still a center-right country?

— Nick Riccardi (@NickRiccardi) January 21, 2016

It is neither — it is a populist/nationalist country at long last – and there is but one candidate who read Sen. Jeff Sessions’ Roadmap published 12 months ago and who is running full speed on it:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/01/12/jeff-sessions-defines-republican-position-on-immigration-in-25-page-roadmap-document/

AFTER we secure the Republic, we can argue about domestic issues.
The mullas will not allow free speech in English OR Spanish in Ameristan!!

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 4:44 PM

thatsafactjack on January 22, 2016 at 4:41 PM

That’s PER YEAR. Add that to all his other Santa Claus “free sh-t” like college including letting people off the hook for the loans they already have. And then there are mandatory vacations and family leave. And there are the trillions he wants to spend on infrastructure. Let’s not leave out the huge bills for scrapping our energy to chase windmill dreams. Oh, and every broom jockey needs to get $15/hr or better.

MJBrutus on January 22, 2016 at 4:47 PM

Trump winning more Democrat crossovers than Hillary is winning Republican crossovers, he’s winning more independents than her, and he has a lot of room to grow in Republicans.

Winning.

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 2:56 PM

Too bad for Republicans then that Hillary won’t be the Dem nominee.

proverbs427 on January 22, 2016 at 4:53 PM

Trump electable after all. Doesn’t Bloomberg always threaten to run?

cimbri on January 22, 2016 at 4:55 PM

I’m serious.

Mark Levin’s family member is a staffer for Cruz

or

Donald Trump hangs out with Bill & Hillary Clinton in his free time.

If we are playing guilt by association games, let’s play.

portlandon on January 22, 2016 at 2:54 PM

I’ll just write from my point of view, portlandon, whatever that’s worth.

I think I’m a fairly typical conservative. I listen to talk radio. I read conservative books such as those by Thomas Sowell and Mark Levin. At one time I watched a lot of Fox News including Megyn Kelly’s show. (I don’t watch Fox anymore, though.)

When Mark Levin decided to go rabid against Trump a couple weeks ago, I decided, “This is someone I can’t stand.” I’ve tried his show several times since, and he’s always making what I feel are stupid arguments against Trump. And I simply won’t listen to him again. Hearing that he has a family member who works for Cruz increases my anger.

I think “conservative” pundits and opinion shapers who are taking a stand against Trump this election are burning a lot of bridges. There are a lot of people like me who will have long memories for many years after this election is over.

So that’s what I have to say about Levin.

As for Trump palling around with the Clintons for many years, that doesn’t bother me in the slightest. He’s a businessman and entrepreneur who all his life has done what works. I like that he’s a mover and shaker who can get things done. He really has nothing in common with Levin.

Burke on January 22, 2016 at 4:55 PM

Trump Vets Ad Features Russian Veterans; Re-Tweets Nazi Twitter Account

http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/22/trump-vets-ad-features-russians-retweets-nazi-account/

OK with you Iowa, New Hampshire, Palin, Ingram, Rush, “establishment” I’m sure Ann Coulter is overjoyed……maybe Trump will start tweeting ISIS’s propaganda for them, heck Iran probably won’t have a closer friend to “deal with”.

Apparently The View shrew Joy Behar in big Trump fan, you know those liberals stick together wherever they may find them.

http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/22/donald-trump-picks-huge-endorsement/

sheryl on January 22, 2016 at 4:58 PM

What’s amazing is all the so called Conservatives on this site now seem to be fine if Trump goes full blown moderate or Democrat.

redridinghood on January 22, 2016 at 5:01 PM

The Establishment is the R/D Uniparty, the ones who kept this scumhag still alive.

Join in the destruction.

Against The Establishment

It’s a pretty sad day when Joy Reid of MSNBC makes more sense to me than National Review.

Check out her diagnosis (which mostly comes from moderate Republican turned liberalish independent Bruce Bartlett) at 6:45.

It’s accurate — the establishment/elite has been selling lies to everyone outside the donor class for years. They use their power to enact their own priorities into law, while telling the rest of us “it’s too hard” or “it will scare the moderates.”

And for years we went along with this.

Well, as she notes, the issue of immigration has caused this bargain — the elites get their actual agenda, everyone else gets lies and empty promises — to break down, probably forever.

You know, for years, I felt it was my duty to sell these shit sandwiches to readers for the Greater Good of winning elections.

I didn’t like doing it, but I thought that, for example, the War on Terror was too important to risk a rupture over other questions.

Although I’ve come to hate politics and I just despise reading the news now, the one good thing is that I’m liberated from splashing some ketchup on Sandwiches Made of Actual Shit and trying to sell them to people as tasty and healthful.

I feel liberated. I serve no “Greater Good,” as I don’t know that there’s a Greater Good to be served anymore. So I can just say exactly what I think.

And what I think is that the establishment has to be destroyed.

We will not be ignored, we will not be condescended to, we will no longer accept broken promises and lies as our payment for our service to the GOP.

And if it requires destroying the GOP and electing a Democrat to teach the establishment this lesson, to chastise them and to humble them, then we shall do just that, and do so happily.

You will either come to terms, or you will be destroyed.

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2016 at 5:01 PM

The scumhag is Hillary, and alive is “politically”.

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2016 at 5:02 PM

When Mark Levin decided to go rabid against Trump a couple weeks ago, I decided, “This is someone I can’t stand…

Burke on January 22, 2016 at 4:55 PM

Yeah but what did Mark Levin’s family member have to say about him?

Buttercup on January 22, 2016 at 5:04 PM

The problem is Hillary will be able to get away with whatever she wants. It does not matter… unfortunately

redridinghood on January 22, 2016 at 5:09 PM

Sorry wrong thread. New laptop. Keys sticking & getting double boxes. Ready to throw it out the window.

redridinghood on January 22, 2016 at 5:17 PM

Here’s an outside-the-box third-party idea for you, and I’m not just saying this because I’m the Internet’s premier Romney-trollblogger: What if Mitt got in this summer as an independent alternative to Trump and Hillary?

GOP Inc. has Mittens waiting in the wings for something. That theory is as good as any.

Joseph K on January 22, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Hillary will be the nominee.

redridinghood on January 22, 2016 at 5:39 PM

If Hillary gets indicted, Bloomberg is going to get in.

novaculus on January 22, 2016 at 5:40 PM

Trump has never hidden or lied about having socialized with the Clintons.

Is there any difference discernible to you?

Dolce Far Niente on January 22, 2016 at 3:08 PM

I like the fact that Trump doesn’t change his accent when talking to different groups, like Cruz and Hillary do.

Joseph K on January 22, 2016 at 5:40 PM

Trump vs. Sanders = Sanders +5.3 (+15 Sanders in January)

Rubio vs. Sanders = Rubio +1 (Rubio +3 in most recent poll)

Cruz vs. Sanders = +3.3 Sanders (although two more recent polls put Cruz up +1)

Bush vs. Sanders = +3 (although recent polls put Bush up +1)

Trump-heads, you need to lose this idea that Trump is going to pull Democrats vs. Sanders. He won’t. He’ll lose, and we’ll have a SOCIALIST PRESIDENT.

Dude– Sanders +15!

Nethicus on January 22, 2016 at 5:41 PM

If Hillary gets indicted, Bloomberg is going to get in.

novaculus on January 22, 2016 at 5:40 PM

He may be testing the waters.

Joseph K on January 22, 2016 at 5:42 PM

MJBrutus on January 22, 2016 at 4:47 PM

When Trump was in Tulsa, toward the end of his speech he mentioned that he would love to run against Sanders.

That list of tax hikes, most of which would hit the middle class the hardest, is part of the reason why.

thatsafactjack on January 22, 2016 at 5:59 PM

AFTER we secure the Republic, we can argue about domestic issues.
The mullas will not allow free speech in English OR Spanish in Ameristan!!

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 4:44 PM

After what’s going on now in the EU it shouldn’t be hard to understand. I don’t want another Davos pandering R. I like this nation to have some separation from the other nations of the world. If the national review fools and the cruzbots can’t see what’s going on that’s their problem. The man on the street sees it.

BoxHead1 on January 22, 2016 at 6:13 PM

I like the fact that Trump doesn’t change his accent when talking to different groups, like Cruz and Hillary do.

Joseph K on January 22, 2016 at 5:40 PM

He also doesn’t change his clothes, or pretend to be Elmer Fudd.

cimbri on January 22, 2016 at 7:02 PM

Reality check

Levin’s family member works for Cruz.

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2016 at 2:44 PM

So? Who gives a shit?

Blue Lou Boyle on January 22, 2016 at 4:07 PM

Levin explained this on his radio show. It is not a big deal!

redridinghood on January 22, 2016 at 7:25 PM

New York values for the win!

Mr. Arrogant on January 22, 2016 at 7:30 PM

Levin’s family member works for Cruz.

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2016 at 2:44 PM

I don’t know who irritates me more, Hillary cackling at me or Levin yelling at me then trying to sell me a book.

Mr. Arrogant on January 22, 2016 at 7:32 PM

Too bad for Republicans then that Hillary won’t be the Dem nominee.

proverbs427 on January 22, 2016 at 4:53 PM

I said she wasn’t going to be the nominee a long time ago. She is going to jail.

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 9:21 PM

I like the fact that Trump doesn’t change his accent when talking to different groups, like Cruz and Hillary do.

Joseph K on January 22, 2016 at 5:40 PM

He also doesn’t change his clothes, or pretend to be Elmer Fudd.

cimbri on January 22, 2016 at 7:02 PM

That’s funny! – and I’m for Cruz

fallingsky on January 22, 2016 at 11:26 PM

If Rand is willing to be Mitch’s little friend, he can be Trump’s as well.

William Eaton on January 22, 2016 at 3:23 PM

Rand Paul would never submit to being Trump’s VP,

Rand has already played the “keep your enemies closer” act with Mitch so it isn’t a stretch to say that he wouldn’t. But more importantly, if the donor class hates Trump so, and if he is so conniving, he would inherit an impeached presidency.

Think strategically for one in your life.

nobar on January 22, 2016 at 3:23 PM

You Trump people are so delusional that you think Mitch McConnell is worse than Trump? Mitch McConnell never conspired to violate the Constitution so severely as Trump. McConnell is a scared fool, but Trump is an evil monster.

Trump is even worse than Obama. And you people are even worse than the Obama drones.

TBSchemer on January 23, 2016 at 12:24 AM

Trump jokes today that he could ‘shoot someone in the middle of 5th avenue and I wouldn’t lose any voters.”

He knows. He knows he has cultists.

And like lemmings, the cultists will come here and defend him.

Grace_is_sufficient on January 23, 2016 at 4:19 PM