Shock Iowa poll from CNN: Trump leads Cruz by 11, Sanders leads Hillary by eight

posted at 6:01 pm on January 21, 2016 by Allahpundit

Did I say I was going to need Vicodin on caucus night? I meant horse tranquilizers.

I’m going to argue that Cruz fans shouldn’t freak out about this poll, but first let me grab a change of underwear.

Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, is in third at 14%, the only other Republican in double digits. Ben Carson failed to register half of Rubio’s support and is in fourth place at 6%…

[L]ikely Republican caucus-goers are more divided when it comes to who would best handle foreign policy, with Trump (27%), Rubio (26%) and Cruz (25%) in a virtual three-way split. On the question of which candidate better represents Republican values, 29% choose Cruz, 28% side with Trump and 15% favor Rubio. Cruz holds an edge as the one who would better handle social issues, however, with 29% to Trump’s 18%, while 12% name Rubio, 10% Carson and 9% former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Asked which candidate better represents Republican values, immigration heretic Marco Rubio pulls barely half what conservative heretic Donald Trump does. Rubio has a 94 percent rating from Heritage Action. Turn that thought over in your mind a few times.

Time to panic? Well, yes, soon. But not yet. Another bit from CNN:

The sampling is key for both leaders: Only including voters who previously caucused in their party’s most recent competitive caucus, Cruz is neck-and-neck with Trump, with 30% for Cruz to 28% for Trump. Rubio is steady at 16% in that sample.

Of Democrats who caucused in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders, 55% to 38%.

Essentially the poll’s telling us what we already knew: There are many more Trump fans than Cruz fans among the broader population, including in Iowa, and if Trump can get them to turn out on caucus night he’s going to win. Whether he can get them to turn out is the great unsolved mystery of the primary. Cruz has the best organization in Iowa; Trump’s organization is more of a black box, but some of the glimpses inside haven’t been encouraging. On the other hand, Trumpmania’s bound to bring some people out to caucus who’ve never done it before even if Trump’s ground game is weak. If he’s already within two points of Cruz among people who caucused in 2012, how does he lose once those additional first-time caucusgoers are added?

There’s another reason to doubt this poll, though. Not only is the sample curiously small — just 266 likely voters when a typical scientific poll aims for 400 or better — but CNN has pegged Trump’s support conspicuously higher than other pollsters in the past. In late November, the last time they surveyed Iowa, they had Trump ahead of Cruz 33/20. (Which means, despite today’s gaudy topline numbers, that Cruz has now slightly reduced Trump’s lead from what it was before.) No other pollster had Trump up by as much as 13 points at that time. In fact, others were just beginning to show Cruz catching and passing Trump as part of his December surge. A Monmouth poll taken during the same period had Cruz up five; of the remaining seven polls taken in December, Cruz led in four, Trump led very narrowly in two, and one was a tie. The CNN poll, in other words, was an extreme outlier in its pro-Trump tilt. You may be seeing that again here, especially once you factor in the small sample size. Or, alternate theory: Maybe Trump really is quietly running Cruz off the field and he’s gearing up to run the table in all 50 states. Not enough horse tranquilizers in the world.

Since we’re talking polls, here’s another bit of data from today’s new YouGov national poll showing Trump leading Cruz 38/19. Cruz is working hard lately on his “Trump = establishment” message, but he may have to work a lot harder. Ahem:

yg1

Who’s the perceived establishmentarian, Cruz or Trump? You think if maybe Cruz had started making the case against Trump’s populism months ago, instead of hugging him as if he’d just won Powerball, these numbers might be a bit different now?

Elsewhere in the CNN poll, Bernie Sanders is leading Hillary 51/43 overall and 67/30 when Democrats are asked who would do more for the middle class. Seven weeks ago, when CNN last polled the Democratic race, Clinton led Sanders by 18 points. I’d guesstimate that Trump now has something like a two-thirds chance of winning Iowa and New Hampshire while Sanders has a three-quarters chance of winning both. In lieu of an exit question, I’ll leave you with this headscratcher:


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“Jindal may be a genius […]” is wrong. Jindal is a genius, a two-term governor, and a notable policy wonk. But the “hoi polloi” will whine about economic issues, yet they don’t want to listen to a wonk explain things because he lacks “charisma.” So, they’ll listen to a know-nothing like Trump who outright rambles on any topic, because he has “charisma.” Does that make sense to you?

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 6:46 PM

What genius?

Oh give me a break!

The only “genius” your pols have is to pass amnesty for their big money donors.

Isn’t Paul Ryan also labelled a genius?

Dumbasses, if you ask me.

I will take the common sense Trump any day over your geniuses.

TheRightMan on January 21, 2016 at 7:07 PM

You think if maybe Cruz had started making the case against Trump’s populism months ago, instead of hugging him as if he’d just won Powerball, these numbers might be a bit different now?

To Allah’s point, Jennifer Rubin asks a similar question, does Cruz’s embrace of Trump and then attack on Trump show that Cruz is bad at judging character? I add that Cruz has already admitted to be fooled by McConnell…

Aslans Girl on January 21, 2016 at 7:08 PM

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:01 PM

Re-read your last sentence and then edit it to read correctly.

Galtian on January 21, 2016 at 7:08 PM

Trump is wrong on that, though. High taxes and burdensome regulations are more directly responsible than immigration or trade. We “buy the product from them” because it’s cheaper. Is it made with less quality? Absolutely. But blame high labor costs caused by taxes and regulations.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:06 PM

They aren’t mutually exclusive.

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:09 PM

We tried your way in 1928, how did that work out for us?

We tried my way in 1980, how did that work out for us?

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:05 PM

This.

It was Herbert Hoover who got the ball rolling on the New Deal; he was just a piker compared to Roosevelt, who actively tried to stack the courts in an attempt to govern as a statist. Smoot-Hawley was disastrous and Hoover raised taxes!

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:09 PM

It also makes him a phony.

Absolutely not. The ability of making the best of the situation is a valuable trait that many, most notably some presidential candidates, sorely lack. One should always choose to profit where possible as a (successful) businessman, and close loopholes of such profit as a (honest) politician.

Jindal may be a genius […]” is wrong. Jindal is a genius, a two-term governor, and a notable policy wonk. But the “hoi polloi” will whine about economic issues, yet they don’t want to listen to a wonk explain things because he lacks “charisma.” So, they’ll listen to a know-nothing like Trump who outright rambles on any topic, because he has “charisma.” Does that make sense to you?

If I needed a think tank policy strategist I’d hire Jindal in a heartbeat but he’s a bad politician who is unable to capitalize on his strong points. Human skill count, and not just in retail politics. We elect a president, not a chess master or a math professor.

Trump rambles, that’s true. Some folks here will eat me alive for admitting that but even though I’m still supporting him, I’m seriously worried about the hollowness of his statements. He also started slacking on one of the two critically-important points that brought me to his camp, which is sticking it to the establishment and immigration. As I said earlier (and took some beating for it), one wrong statement from him on immigration and I’ll see myself out faster than Santorum in a gay bar.

Rix on January 21, 2016 at 7:10 PM

Trump is wrong on that, though. High taxes and burdensome regulations are more directly responsible than immigration or trade. We “buy the product from them” because it’s cheaper. Is it made with less quality? Absolutely. But blame high labor costs caused by taxes and regulations.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:06 PM

Partly wrong. Kill every idiotic regulation on record and we’ll still be losing to the Chinese in the free market. You cannot compete against factories using slave labor, toxic dumps and blatant intellectual rights infringement, not even in the high-tech department.

Rix on January 21, 2016 at 7:13 PM

Allahpundit on January 21, 2016 at 6:15 PM
This is a good post Allah. Don’t worry about the Trump supporters, lack of oxygen gets a person high before they pass out. I know it is tough dealing with a lack of solid information. Even when the big media had tons of cash to spend during the early primaries, they usually got it wrong. The polling is an media issue, that will become a bigger problem as this presidential cycle continues. The lack of how a campaign operates by reporters is becoming glaring. Did any of these people ever take a class in American politics. Tactually, Cruz is in a position to win Iowa. Cruz has the people, and turnout model to win in Iowa. Trump’s ground game is one giant x factor, but the signs are not good for his campaign. Rubio is a wild card. He has a ground game, but has kept a low profile to date.(So my friends on the ground in Iowa tell me.) The caucus is always about turnout, but the real battle is later in the primary. Iowa is one strange state.

flackcatcher on January 21, 2016 at 7:14 PM

What genius?

Oh give me a break!

The only “genius” your pols have is to pass amnesty for their big money donors.

Isn’t Paul Ryan also labelled a genius?

Dumbasses, if you ask me.

I will take the common sense Trump any day over your geniuses.

TheRightMan on January 21, 2016 at 7:07 PM

Trump and “common sense” don’t go well together. The court system alone will grind to a halt his “The Wall” policy and his “mass deportation” idea. But he doesn’t seem to understand that because his yes men won’t tell him otherwise. That “common sense” man Trump will drain your bank account. Wake up.

They aren’t mutually exclusive.

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:09 PM

Of course not. Things are relative, though.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:15 PM

Cruz should shock everyone, get out of the race, and endorse Trump. He’s at his high water mark (well, last month but close enough) and has maximum leverage to wheedle a SCOTUS appointment out of Trump. If he stays in the race, he’ll almost certainly lose, and then will probably be primaried in Texas in 2 years.

cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 7:15 PM

Trump supporters here have become insufferable.

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:01 PM

Just wait until February.

VorDaj on January 21, 2016 at 7:16 PM

We tried my way in 1980, how did that work out for us?

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:05 PM

Badly. The bill is now due. Greenspan has destroyed the economy. It’s all been sand castles of debt, since then.

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:16 PM

<blockquoteMalachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:01 PM

Re-read your last sentence and then edit it to read correctly.

Galtian on January 21, 2016 at 7:08 PM

A guy who wants more national government and has sworn to start a trade war during a depression: count me out.

Fixed.

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:17 PM

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:01 PM

TDSers even worst

djohn669 on January 21, 2016 at 7:17 PM

<blockquoteJust wait until February.

I shudder to think of it.

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:19 PM

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:01 PM

TDSers even worst

djohn669 on January 21, 2016 at 7:17 PM

Not based on my passive observation over the last week.

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:21 PM

Trump and “common sense” don’t go well together. The court system alone will grind to a halt his “The Wall” policy and his “mass deportation” idea.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:15 PM

The wall is going to be a double or triple layered fence. Not that expensive. Trump can bypass the courts to deport illegals. They have no rights.

cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 7:22 PM

Partly wrong. Kill every idiotic regulation on record and we’ll still be losing to the Chinese in the free market. You cannot compete against factories using slave labor, toxic dumps and blatant intellectual rights infringement, not even in the high-tech department.

Rix on January 21, 2016 at 7:13 PM

China is not this tremendous, robust economy. It’s quite fragile. They’re also a still-developing country with over one billion people. Their currency is crap which is why they keep manipulating it. China also doesn’t have our wealth or productivity. Things need fixing, sure, but put things in perspective, my friend!

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:22 PM

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:21 PM

6 months listening to tdsers, they are worst

djohn669 on January 21, 2016 at 7:23 PM

Thing about Trump is that he does want low business taxes and fundamentally lower marginal rates for the middle class.

Plus, ordinary voters have no idea how much of a millstone Obamacare is around the necks of small business start-ups.

I do think he gets the notion of fundamental tax reform. Where the libertarians lost the country was in their refusal to acknowledge that our trading partners were mercantilists.

victor82 on January 21, 2016 at 7:27 PM

Trump and “common sense” don’t go well together. The court system alone will grind to a halt his “The Wall” policy and his “mass deportation” idea.

Aizen

Typical amnesty shill BS. The courts can handle everything EXCEPT immigration issues. Why, I remember it like it was yesterday when the courts moved like molasses the year Bill Clinton deported a million illegals. It’s the same pathetic crap with you losers every damn time. And so what if it does grind to a halt? Yes, we must accept murder or else the courts will grind to a halt, lol.

xblade on January 21, 2016 at 7:27 PM

Sad. We are 10 days away from destroying conservatism. I am a populist as well as a conservative. I believe Trump is neither. But nobody ever went broke depending on the stupidity of the American people.

Doomed.

KMav on January 21, 2016 at 7:27 PM

Badly. The bill is now due. Greenspan has destroyed the economy. It’s all been sand castles of debt, since then.

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:16 PM

…and logic like this is why Trump is leading in the polls.

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:28 PM

Trump and “common sense” don’t go well together. The court system alone will grind to a halt his “The Wall” policy and his “mass deportation” idea.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:15 PM

What will the Courts do to stop a border wall from being built?

Go read on The Secure Fence Act of 2006.

It is NOT impossible to build a border wall fortified enough to keep our borders safe. It is NOT impossible to follow the damn law in deporting those illegally here.

No matter how loud you screech.

What is lacking is the political will from both Democrats and Republicans because they and their big money donors love the status quo.

A President that has the political will can accomplish a lot on immigration.

And that is why you see the political Establishment and their big money donors going all out to try and stop Trump. If they shared in his goals, you think they would be fighting him?

TheRightMan on January 21, 2016 at 7:30 PM

The wall is going to be a double or triple layered fence. Not that expensive. Trump can bypass the courts to deport illegals. They have no rights.

cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 7:22 PM

So, just take our chances that we might deport legal residents like during Operation [email protected]?

You’d have to give most of the illegals (not all*) due process because the government has to first accuse them of wrongdoing (being here illegally) and then prove it in the court of law (using the burden of proof). Trump supporters don’t seem to understand that you can’t just walk up to someone and ask for their documentation, or put their name in a database without the government first acquiring probable cause.

This is why I (among other reasons) oppose Donald Trump. The man is running to be a “nationalist” statist.

*Those guilty of other crimes (DUI, assault, etc.) would have their legal status pop up during the investigation.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:31 PM

We tried your way in 1928, how did that work out for us?

We tried my way in 1980, how did that work out for us?

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:05 PM

I hate to be the one to break this to you Tater, but it’s not 1928 or even 1980 any more. In 1970 one in four US jobs were manufacturing. Today, it’s less than one in ten.

In 1928 and even 1980 the US was an exporting nation. We have not been one in more than 20 years. NAFTA alone cost the US between 750,000 and 1,000,000 manufacturing jobs and TPP is NAFTA on steroids.

bw222 on January 21, 2016 at 7:32 PM

Allahpundit: “Not enough horse tranquilizers in the world.”

LOL. I had to laugh at that. That’s how I feel.

It reminded me of the end of the movie The Birdcage when Agador Sparitus (the house boy) is pour the Senator a drink and the Senator says, “I don’t really drink.”

Agador says, “yeah, but now’s the time to start.”

I don’t drink, but I may have to start. lol

The only thing that keeps gnawing at me that gives me some hope is how Trump has been behaving since the debate. He is more excitable, erratic, loud and ridiculous than usual.

Yes, he stepped up his attacks and lies against Cruz, but he looked manic, even for him and kind of desperate and cranky.

And Cruz was calm last weekend.

I wonder if there were some internal polls that the 2 camps had that showed Cruz pulling away from Trump and Trump had to nip it in the butt.

Maybe his lies last weekend and all the media attention with Palin helped Trump’s number.

But maybe once it dies down and Iowa voters see the attacks for the lies they are, the numbers may go back to Cruz’s favor.

You never know. It’s just a nagging feeling I have about last weekend. Something was up and something was wrong with Trump.

Elisa on January 21, 2016 at 7:37 PM

<blockquoteMalachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:21 PM

6 months listening to tdsers, they are worst

djohn669 on January 21, 2016 at 7:23 PM

The fish rots from the head down. Comparing Cruz to Hillary and so on has poisoned this process for me. I was nominally for Cruz until that. Now I am anyone but Trump.

Malachi45 on January 21, 2016 at 7:38 PM

Allahpundit on January 21, 2016 at 6:15 PM
This is a good post Allah. Don’t worry about the Trump supporters, lack of oxygen gets a person high before they pass out. I know it is tough dealing with a lack of solid information. Even when the big media had tons of cash to spend during the early primaries, they usually got it wrong. The polling is an media issue, that will become a bigger problem as this presidential cycle continues. The lack of how a campaign operates by reporters is becoming glaring. Did any of these people ever take a class in American politics. Tactually, Cruz is in a position to win Iowa. Cruz has the people, and turnout model to win in Iowa. Trump’s ground game is one giant x factor, but the signs are not good for his campaign. Rubio is a wild card. He has a ground game, but has kept a low profile to date.(So my friends on the ground in Iowa tell me.) The caucus is always about turnout, but the real battle is later in the primary. Iowa is one strange state.

flackcatcher on January 21, 2016 at 7:14 PM

I hope you’re right.

Elisa on January 21, 2016 at 7:39 PM

…and logic like this is why Trump is leading in the polls.

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:28 PM

As usual you got nothing of substance to say. It was all a lie based on ever falling interest rates, and now we’re in the zero trap, and soon to go negative. It was bad policy all along, but it was a great party. What’s coming is going to be worse than 28.

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:43 PM

I hate to be the one to break this to you Tater, but it’s not 1928 or even 1980 any more. In 1970 one in four US jobs were manufacturing. Today, it’s less than one in ten.

In 1928 and even 1980 the US was an exporting nation. We have not been one in more than 20 years. NAFTA alone cost the US between 750,000 and 1,000,000 manufacturing jobs and TPP is NAFTA on steroids.

bw222 on January 21, 2016 at 7:32 PM

So it would be better for us to expand our manufacturing base at eh expense of modern technological expansion? The reason we don’t have those jobs is two fold; the first is we have a much more educated work force, and secondly government regulation has made it much more expensive to create those jobs in America.

We need more Apple’s and fewer GM’s. We won’t be better the other wy around.

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:44 PM

As usual you got nothing of substance to say. It was all a lie based on ever falling interest rates, and now we’re in the zero trap, and soon to go negative. It was bad policy all along, but it was a great party. What’s coming is going to be worse than 28.

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:43 PM

Of course it will be if we go down the path of Trump/Sanders. The alternative is the Coolidge example.

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:48 PM

Of course it will be if we go down the path of Trump/Sanders. The alternative is the Coolidge example.

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 7:48 PM

Let’s play a little game. What happens next? What is the next step in economic policy?

DFCtomm on January 21, 2016 at 7:53 PM

Trump and “common sense” don’t go well together. The court system alone will grind to a halt his “The Wall” policy and his “mass deportation” idea.

Aizen

They will do the same to Cruz, too. O.K., it’s Hillary then.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:54 PM

And don’t forget Gloria Alred.

Cindy Munford on January 21, 2016 at 7:54 PM

Did any of these people ever take a class in American politics.

flackcatcher on January 21, 2016 at 7:14 PM

Good question. When did you take yours?

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:55 PM

The people always have some champion whom they set over them and nurse into greatness. This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector.

Plato (BC 427-BC 347) Greek philosopher.

Plato is correct. I am not voting for Cruz.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:56 PM

Nationalism is right-wing Big Government.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 6:13 PM

The Constitution is a world-wide document, and applies to everyone. Same with the Declaration of Independence. Got it.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:58 PM

They will do the same to Cruz, too. O.K., it’s Hillary then.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:54 PM

Cruz is smart, my buddy. He’ll focus more on self-deportation, which people mock.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:59 PM

The Constitution is a world-wide document, and applies to everyone. Same with the Declaration of Independence. Got it.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:58 PM

I notice you didn’t defend nationalism. :)

Actually, while the Constitution is for Americans, we do have that thing called “innocent until proven guilty.” We don’t arrest/deport younger Russian males just because they “might” be spies for Vladimir Putin.

The government must always prove its case.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 8:02 PM

Cruz is smart, my buddy. He’ll focus more on self-deportation, which people mock.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:59 PM

So Cruz is lying when he says he’ll build a wall.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 8:06 PM

I notice you didn’t defend nationalism. :)

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 8:02 PM

I didn’t have to. You just did.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 8:07 PM

TRUMP LEADS BY 10 IN A SECOND IOWA POLL!!!!!
Allahpundit is going to have to use a Whale tranquilizer after he sees this poll that NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT! http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/emerson-poll-jan-iowa-trump-ahead
GO TRUMP!!!!!!

Capitalist75 on January 21, 2016 at 8:10 PM

So Cruz is lying when he says he’ll build a wall.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 8:06 PM

Yup. It’s a shame, but he’s blatantly pandering to the pro-Trump voters. A fence may happen, a wall will not.

I didn’t have to. You just did.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 8:07 PM

Joseph, you are justifying statism. I cannot support that.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 8:15 PM

This.
It was Herbert Hoover who got the ball rolling on the New Deal; he was just a piker compared to Roosevelt, who actively tried to stack the courts in an attempt to govern as a statist. Smoot-Hawley was disastrous and Hoover raised taxes!
Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:09 PM

Heh.
The general election will pit a socialist vs a mercantilist.
Just great…

anuts on January 21, 2016 at 8:15 PM

Yup. It’s a shame, but he’s blatantly pandering to the pro-Trump voters. A fence may happen, a wall will not.

Thank you for your honesty.

Joseph, you are justifying statism. I cannot support that.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 8:15 PM

And you are justifying the destruction of America as a coherent state, sovereign laws, and identifiable borders. You are justifying world empire governed by a trans-national ruling class unaccountable to its citizens; in fact, you are justifying the elimination of the concept of “citizen” entirely.

Then again, you may just be an anarchist.

Again, thank you for your honesty.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 8:19 PM

Palin has nothing to do with this
Palin has nothing to do with this
Palin has nothing to do with this

LOL

renalin on January 21, 2016 at 8:21 PM

Look at this headline from today’s U.K. Guardian:

George Soros: Donald Trump is doing the work of Isis

If George Soros — Satan’s emissary to Earth — thinks ill of Trump, then Trump is OK by me.

FlameWarrior on January 21, 2016 at 8:24 PM

renalin on January 21, 2016 at 8:21 PM

Did Palin LOL?

laughing is dead to me now.

SpongePuppy on January 21, 2016 at 8:27 PM

Trump supporters don’t seem to understand that you can’t just walk up to someone and ask for their documentation, or put their name in a database without the government first acquiring probable cause.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:31 PM

I’m well aware that liberals always say we can’t enforce the laws. Suffice it to say, it will get done, one way or another.

cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 8:30 PM

If George Soros — Satan’s emissary to Earth — thinks ill of Trump, then Trump is OK by me.
FlameWarrior on January 21, 2016 at 8:24 PM

How about when Bob Dole speaks well of Trump?

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 8:32 PM

How about when Bob Dole speaks well of Trump?

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 8:32 PM

Dole is a good man, and a great war hero. Why are people always bashing Dole?

cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 8:34 PM

I’m well aware that liberals always say we can’t enforce the laws. Suffice it to say, it will get done, one way or another.
cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 8:30 PM

You think you would have problem on your hands trying to register guns? Just imagine a national registry of the people. That is a dangerous solution.

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 8:36 PM

How about when Bob Dole speaks well of Trump?

Tater Salad on January 21, 2016 at 8:32 PM

I thought you were 2 years old.

Schadenfreude on January 21, 2016 at 8:37 PM

To Allah’s point, Jennifer Rubin asks a similar question, does Cruz’s embrace of Trump and then attack on Trump show that Cruz is bad at judging character? I add that Cruz has already admitted to be fooled by McConnell…

Aslans Girl on January 21, 2016 at 7:08 PM

Jen Rubin is the squishes squish and hates Cruz for that reason (I’ve been reading her since she was at Commentary).

Anyway,the answer is no.Cruz’s strategy is/was known to all of us..Hug Trump early while he was low in name ID and polls, until he got strong enough to challenge him, if he needed to (He was hoping to do strictly positive until the birther/bank/wtvr attacks started from the Donald).

The strategy worked perfectly,and Cruz has run an immaculate campaign so far. Whether he can close the deal though, remains to be seen.

If god is just, he can because Trump is a fake “man of the people” and definitely a fake “conservative”

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 8:51 PM

Dole is a good man, and a great war hero. Why are people always bashing Dole?

cimbri on January 21, 2016 at 8:34 PM

Because his war hero status, like John Mccains (Mcamnesty) doesn’t have any effect on whether they will do what we want or have principles aside from their own power and glory.

Where have you been? :)

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 8:53 PM

Trump and “common sense” don’t go well together. The court system alone will grind to a halt his “The Wall” policy and his “mass deportation” idea. But he doesn’t seem to understand that because his yes men won’t tell him otherwise. That “common sense” man Trump will drain your bank account. Wake up.

Aizen on January 21, 2016 at 7:15 PM

And yet you swallow Cruz’s promise to abolish the IRS, something that’s been around for 100 years.

LOL!

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 8:56 PM

MMmmmmmmm…..coooorn.

Mimzey on January 21, 2016 at 9:00 PM

And yet you swallow Cruz’s promise to abolish the IRS, something that’s been around for 100 years.

LOL!

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 8:56 PM

Why not? Self-deportation won’t cost a cent!

Looking forward to Cruz announcing he will FIRE all those jack-booted ICE agents on his first day in office.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:00 PM

And that is why you see the political Establishment and their big money donors going all out to try and stop Trump. If they shared in his goals, you think they would be fighting him?

TheRightMan on January 21, 2016 at 7:30 PM

But they’re not Rightman, can’t you see that. Here’s the non partisan truth. They would prefer other candidates to Trump or Cruz for sure. However, between the 2 now that they’re desperate and losing badly they prefer Trump.Especially the soft on immigration,trade crows

They’re not all going pro Donald, but as you can see from the sudden explosion of stories many of them do.

Notice the members of the establishment that prefer Trump. Dole,Mccain,Trent Lott,Murdoch from Frox, WSJ editorial page,GOP senators who are rino’s.It’s not the movement conservatives who believe in our ideas, or some ideas.

The reason is,that they know/think they can roll Trump on their positions,especially ones that involve cronyism.They know Cruz is rock solid on those issues, and smarter. Even on the few things that Cruz wasnt in the past as strong on,he’ll get stronger because he likes to pander to actual conservative voters when the pressure is down.

Trump likes to be liked, and hates to be hated.So if the GOP-E will love him, he will cave on MANY MANY ISSUES,very likely including immigration/border (which is a huge priority for them obviously)

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:06 PM

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:55 PM
If your going to be a punk, at least be a smart punk. From the very beginning of this cycle I have been worried about the lack of context in reporting. This goes far beyond Trump, or any of the current candidates. From not understanding the state they are covering, to not having a clue about the candidate operations. Asking informed questions is reporting 101. Have you seen it.(Between your bullying and constant insults on any commenter having a different point of view, I doubt it. Personally, I find your Paulbot tactics second rate and sloppy. You need to step up your game.)As for my comments about Cruz and Trump, they stand. Show me evidence that Trump has a ground game in Iowa. In national politics, candidates who get out vote win. Show me that Donald Trump has a ground game going in super Tuesday. Not the circus act we are seeing, not the bogus polls, but real evidence that people are pulling the lever for him. The same goes for any candidate running for president in this cycle. Well guess what, it hasn’t happen yet. When it does, I will up front on what I think happened. Will you?

flackcatcher on January 21, 2016 at 9:09 PM

I was webbing around on the intersurf and found Trump is leading by a bigger lead than his lead before his lead jumped.

SpongePuppy on January 21, 2016 at 9:11 PM

Why not? Self-deportation won’t cost a cent!

Looking forward to Cruz announcing he will FIRE all those jack-booted ICE agents on his first day in office.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:00 PM

Dude, that’s NOT WHAT HE SAID. He was questioning the liberal premise of the argument the CNN reporter was making. Cruz was saying, that there are no crimes including the most serious ones like murder,rape even terrorism, where we go around door to door without evidence and remove illegals. We just ENFORCE THE LAW,AND INCREASE RESOURCES IF NEEDED TO DO SO

He didn’t attack ICE agents, and he didn’t even attack Trump, he attacked the premise of the question.

Vote fr who you want, but at least do it based on the truth

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:16 PM

. . . . .The reason is,that they know/think they can roll Trump on their positions,especially ones that involve cronyism.They know Cruz is rock solid on those issues, and smarter. Even on the few things that Cruz wasnt in the past as strong on,he’ll get stronger because he likes to pander to actual conservative voters when the pressure is down.

Trump likes to be liked, and hates to be hated.So if the GOP-E will love him, he will cave on MANY MANY ISSUES,very likely including immigration/border (which is a huge priority for them obviously)

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:06 PM

Truer words were never spoken. Thank you.

Trump has a problem with wanting people to like him. He also wants everyone to know his “heart is bigger than yours.”

He will make deals, but they will be bad deals with Washington establishment, Dems and Repubs.

I don’t even want to think about his Supreme Court nominations. They won’t be much different than Hillary’s.

If he gets the nomination and if he wins the general election (which I have serious doubts he can do) he will disappoint his supporters so many times it will make their heads spin.

And not just on general conservative issues. He may build the wall, but he will fold on everything else with immigration.

Elisa on January 21, 2016 at 9:20 PM

flackcatcher on January 21, 2016 at 9:09 PM

So you haven’t taken a class in American politics. Got it.

As for the “ground game” issue, I’ve written on it several times, and presented my evidence. I’m not going to repeat myself every time some deranged anti-Trumper crops up screaming that he’s just discovered the new Hope Diamond.

If you are going to pose as some kind of political savant, at least try to figure out how the “quote” function works.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:26 PM

Vote fr who you want, but at least do it based on the truth

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:16 PM

I will if you will.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:28 PM

And yet you swallow Cruz’s promise to abolish the IRS, something that’s been around for 100 years.

LOL!

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 8:56 PM

Dude,conservative activists or political junkies like us know the difference between a goal and a promise.

We KNOW that eliminating the IRS is goal and would require congressional help, and that therefor as long as he tries, we’re not going to hold it against him.

He says so himself.He says “these are the things I can do by Presidential power,and these others things will require congress” Those things include abolishing executive orders, investigating the IRS over the targeting of Tea party and investigating Planned Parenthood, AND ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAW VERY STRICTLY (sanctuary cities,deportations,catch and release, employment etc) Those things can all be done with Pres power.

He further openly says that his strategy is to run of a few specific ideas,so that if/when he wins he has a mandate to pressure congress to do them.

Again, this all known,and open.

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:31 PM

I thought this was an outlier but there is an Emerson poll post Sarah’s endorsement reporting almost the same results.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_542e7f5df4e14162851de1c77b0df5f4.pdf

ArthurMachado on January 21, 2016 at 9:31 PM

I will if you will.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:28 PM

You have a deal my Hot Airian brother with a biblical name like mine (I have Abraham as ones of my names)

I’m just asking you to PLEASE keep an open mind, because we both agree on sovereignty and border and immigration stuff,and I’m going with Cruz because I’m really confident he’ll withstand the pressure and do it.

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:34 PM

I thought this was an outlier but there is an Emerson poll post Sarah’s endorsement reporting almost the same results.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_542e7f5df4e14162851de1c77b0df5f4.pdf

ArthurMachado on January 21, 2016 at 9:31 PM

Obviously we don’t know, but this poll has same problem TINY TINY sample size with huge margin of error. They contradict 2 other polls today that had Cruz by 2 and Donald by 1.

IMO with there’s no way this will be a 10 point win. In fact, I think Cruz is leading and will pull it out

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:36 PM

I’m just asking you to PLEASE keep an open mind, because we both agree on sovereignty and border and immigration stuff,and I’m going with Cruz because I’m really confident he’ll withstand the pressure and do it.

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:34 PM

I like that answer. That’s pretty much my answer on Trump. It’s all about confidence, and loyalty to your candidate, and believing that your candidate will return that loyalty. Cruz has a good supporter in you.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:37 PM

I like that answer. That’s pretty much my answer on Trump. It’s all about confidence, and loyalty to your candidate, and believing that your candidate will return that loyalty. Cruz has a good supporter in you.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 9:37 PM

Cheers Joseph same for you. I promise you I will keep an open mind to the last second (day before at least), and if I will allow myself to change my mind, because this is ALL about the country to me, not following an inspiring leader.

I respectfully ask you to do the same (more or less)

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:40 PM

He didn’t attack ICE agents, and he didn’t even attack Trump, he attacked the premise of the question.

Vote fr who you want, but at least do it based on the truth

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:16 PM

‘Jack boots’ was Cruz’s term, not Tapper’s.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/10/politics/ted-cruz-immigration-deportation-guns-terrorism/index.html

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 9:41 PM

Dude,conservative activists or political junkies like us know the difference between a goal and a promise.

We KNOW that eliminating the IRS is goal and would require congressional help, and that therefor as long as he tries, we’re not going to hold it against him.

He says so himself.He says “these are the things I can do by Presidential power,and these others things will require congress” Those things include abolishing executive orders, investigating the IRS over the targeting of Tea party and investigating Planned Parenthood, AND ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAW VERY STRICTLY (sanctuary cities,deportations,catch and release, employment etc) Those things can all be done with Pres power.

He further openly says that his strategy is to run of a few specific ideas,so that if/when he wins he has a mandate to pressure congress to do them.

Again, this all known,and open.

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:31 PM

I read your post as EXCUSING Cruz while you scoff at Trump’s wall.

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 9:42 PM

Operation chaos. This cannot CANNOT be real. I’ve never met a Trump supporter. EVERYONE, conservative, establishment, left, right…EVERYONE hates him. Where are these numbers coming from if the Repubs are so divided, unless it’s bogus? The numbers defy reality.

Bee on January 21, 2016 at 9:42 PM

‘Jack boots’ was Cruz’s term, not Tapper’s.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/10/politics/ted-cruz-immigration-deportation-guns-terrorism/index.html

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 9:41 PM

Yes Jackboots was his term, but go online and watch it again.He was paraphrasing what he though Tapper was getting at.

Cruz was making his immigration pitch (a hawkish one) and Tapper was like “But HOW are you going to do it” ,and Cruz kept on repeating “I’m going to ACTUALLY ENFORCE THE LAW”.

Then he made the comparison to murder,terrorism,rape etc (Which made a lot of sense) and said,”When we want to enforce those very important laws we don’t go around like “jack booted thugs” (which is what Tapper was implying), we just enforce the law harshly, while respecting the rights of the innocent.

That’s all.Cruz is Right wing and smart to attack law enforcement.

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:47 PM

I know this sounds really simple, but I think Trump will win. NOT because of his positions or anyone else’s, but because from the very beginning, when noone believed he could or should do it he got in the race and said he wanted to make America great again. He did not have to run. The White House will be a step down for him and a hassle. I think he is doing this because like alot of people who comment on this blog, he believes America is in trouble and if he can help he is going to give it his best shot. I don’t agree with alot of his policies and I think he can be egotistical and rude, but I believe he wants what I want, which is for AMERICA to be great again, not this special interest or that group of people. AMERICA as a whole. He is sacrificing for America by throwing his hat in the ring and if he wins he will be something he hasn’t ever been before, a public servant who only owes the public for his position and not some guy writing a big check. He is asking for a vote not a check, and in exchange he wants to do his best to make America strong, prosperous and free. That is hard to top IMHO.

txmomof6 on January 21, 2016 at 9:48 PM

The Constitution is a world-wide document, and applies to everyone. Same with the Declaration of Independence. Got it.

Joseph K on January 21, 2016 at 7:58 PM

.
Now that you mention it, In the UK, the Brits could take our Declaration, not change a word, and it would fit thier situation vis-a-vis their own government perfectly. Brits are the most surveilled and controlled country in the world, and their Parliament just gave GCHQ (their version of NSA and related agencies) carte-blancHe to spy on their own citizens with no limits, ethical, legal or social. We told the King and Parliament where to stuff it in 1776, and it’s about time that the British subjects — they are not citizens, they are disarmed by act of parliament, so no longer sovereign citizens — told their betters where they can put their cameras and their muslims.
.
As I recall, they tried to disarm us here at Concord and Lexington. The World Turned Upside Down as a result.
.
In my not so humble opinion, Trump will, perhaps, obviate the need to do that a second time in these now United States of America.

meerbock on January 21, 2016 at 9:51 PM

I read your post as EXCUSING Cruz while you scoff at Trump’s wall.

fossten on January 21, 2016 at 9:42 PM

Not excusing because I don’t think he needs an excuse for what he said. I’m just trying to judge ALL candidates honestly, including Donald.When people were going nuclear about his announcement speech, I publicly said, and still believe “C’mon you pussies, Trump wasn’t talking about all or most Mexicans, he was talking about illegals only and even then,only a lot of them, not all) because that is what I believe.

All we should all care about is who’s the best tool to accomplish our job.We Cruz supporters strongly agree about the immigration issues, at least in the big points. No illegal immigration and chill out on legal immigration too,especially (but not only) Muslims because they ass an extra terrorism link.

The reason Cruz was so nice to Trump before he got attacked, is because he knows HIS OWN SUPPORTERS broadly agree with him.

You have to pay attention to Pols and their base/tendencies. Obama, may or may not make lefties happy 100% of the time, BUT when they get really pissed he caves to them,and so they like him overll.Ted Cruz may or may not do what we want 100% of the time like anybody, BUT from experience HE WILL FULFILL HIS CORE PROMISES (not goals) and when pressure is down he will cave to us.

Why?, because we are his base, and the “establishment” ALREADY HATES HIM (as you have seen in recent days).

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 10:00 PM

Bee on January 21, 2016 at 9:42 PM

.
Pauline Kael? Is that you? I thought you were dead by now, no?

meerbock on January 21, 2016 at 10:05 PM

Pauline Kael? Is that you? I thought you were dead by now, no?

meerbock on January 21, 2016 at 10:05 PM

Been here long?

Shay on January 21, 2016 at 10:41 PM

Generally I only engage with the dozen or so regulars on QOTD and on some other threads that pique my interest. To answer your question, I’ve lurked for several years but just got in at the last open registration, whenever that was — about this time last year, maybe?

meerbock on January 21, 2016 at 11:08 PM

Obviously we don’t know, but this poll has same problem TINY TINY sample size with huge margin of error. They contradict 2 other polls today that had Cruz by 2 and Donald by 1.

IMO with there’s no way this will be a 10 point win. In fact, I think Cruz is leading and will pull it out

Charliecrown on January 21, 2016 at 9:36 PM

Emerson has a poll out that shows Trump up +10%

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 12:33 AM

Pauline Kael? Is that you? I thought you were dead by now, no?

meerbock on January 21, 2016 at 10:05 PM

Beat me to it.

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 12:34 AM

Cruz could have won, but he stubbornly held these unpopular views:

>> Cruz on Trump’s proposed Muslim ban: ‘No, that’s not my policy’
>> Cruz Demanding U.S. Take Syrian Refugees and Not Worry About Terrorist Embeds
>> Ted Cruz Rejects Trump’s Deportation Plan

No thanks. Let’s let Trump clear up the immigration mess now, and later we can go for Cruz’s conservative idealism to refine things.

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 6:09 PM

Bingo.

Cruz is wrong/soft on the two existential issues facing The Republic: massive illegal border invasion / amnesty; islamic terrorism / hijrah.

ALL OTHER ISSUES ARE SUBORDINATE! Under the Aztlan Caliphate, nobody will care about ethanol, Kelo, schlonging, “true conservative”, blah, blah, blah.

If an avowed socialist + a guy who conservatives complain isn’t a conservative are leading in polls, is this still a center-right country?

— Nick Riccardi (@NickRiccardi) January 21, 2016

It is neither — it is a populist/nationalist country at long last – and there is but one candidate who read Sen. Jeff Sessions’ Roadmap published 12 months ago and who is running full speed on it:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/01/12/jeff-sessions-defines-republican-position-on-immigration-in-25-page-roadmap-document/

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 12:35 AM

I’ve never met a Trump supporter.

Hello. There, you’ve met one.

The numbers defy reality.

Bee on January 21, 2016 at 9:42 PM

But they are real, and ain’t it great??

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/01/20/pictures-of-massive-donald-trump-rally-in-oklahoma/

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 12:50 AM

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 12:50 AM

+1

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 12:54 AM

…It is neither — it is a populist/nationalist nativist country at long last – and there is but one candidate who read Sen. Jeff Sessions’ Roadmap published 12 months ago and who is running full speed on it:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/01/12/jeff-sessions-defines-republican-position-on-immigration-in-25-page-roadmap-document/

(late night)

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 12:35 AM

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 1:01 AM

+1

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 12:54 AM

Have you EVER had this much fun before??

“Only” 12,000 at the rally I went to — I volunteered, no line to wait in, got to help dozens of folks in wheelchairs who attended.

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 1:04 AM

Have you EVER had this much fun before??

“Only” 12,000 at the rally I went to — I volunteered, no line to wait in, got to help dozens of folks in wheelchairs who attended.

fred5678 on January 22, 2016 at 1:04 AM

I just want him to come to the NW so I could go to one of the rallies. It would be fun.

NWConservative on January 22, 2016 at 1:10 AM

It also makes him a phony.

Absolutely not. The ability of making the best of the situation is a valuable trait that many, most notably some presidential candidates, sorely lack. One should always choose to profit where possible as a (successful) businessman, and close loopholes of such profit as a (honest) politician.

Jindal may be a genius […]” is wrong. Jindal is a genius, a two-term governor, and a notable policy wonk. But the “hoi polloi” will whine about economic issues, yet they don’t want to listen to a wonk explain things because he lacks “charisma.” So, they’ll listen to a know-nothing like Trump who outright rambles on any topic, because he has “charisma.” Does that make sense to you?

If I needed a think tank policy strategist I’d hire Jindal in a heartbeat but he’s a bad politician who is unable to capitalize on his strong points. Human skill count, and not just in retail politics. We elect a president, not a chess master or a math professor.

Trump rambles, that’s true. Some folks here will eat me alive for admitting that but even though I’m still supporting him, I’m seriously worried about the hollowness of his statements. He also started slacking on one of the two critically-important points that brought me to his camp, which is sticking it to the establishment and immigration. As I said earlier (and took some beating for it), one wrong statement from him on immigration and I’ll see myself out faster than Santorum in a gay bar.

I like you a lot.

Keep posting.

3558 on January 22, 2016 at 1:51 AM

Sorry. Technical incompetence on my part.

My previous post was a response to:

Rix on January 21, 2016 at 7:10 PM

3558 on January 22, 2016 at 1:54 AM

Hey, we live in the country that elected Obama twice…

The GOP is the party that nominated Romney, Dole, and McCain…

The Tytler cycle is what it is.

Go ahead, lets have a Sanders vs Trump election and burn it all down.

Its obvious that we have become a superficial, and badly educated populous. Blame public schools, blame parents, blame nanny state govt….

I believe someone once said–

What difference does it make?

….cause here we are.

I will never vote for Trump. He is a progressive, authoritarian who respects no one and lies without regard to its effects.

Trump fan clubbers have proven that they are no different than Obama worshipers, and the right is basically dominated by indefensible, celebrity loving, voters, just like the left.

It is depressing.

One last thing. I keep hearing Trump lovers claim he is about “common sense”. Could someone explain that, because Trump has literally taken both sides, on important issues like abortion, assault weapon bans, high tariffs, fighting ISIS, Hillary Clinton, the Dream Act, amnesty, high taxes, and Obama’s job performance….to name a few. I dont understand how pandering to the audience that gives you want you want that day…is common sense.

He is just as narcissistic as Obama..i thought we learned the damage that caused, in the past 8 years.

alecj on January 22, 2016 at 7:41 AM

Hey, we live in the country that elected Obama twice…

The GOP is the party that nominated Romney, Dole, and McCain…

The Tytler cycle is what it is.

Go ahead, lets have a Sanders vs Trump election and burn it all down.

Its obvious that we have become a superficial, and badly educated populous. Blame public schools, blame parents, blame nanny state govt….

I believe someone once said–

What difference does it make?

….cause here we are.

I will never vote for Trump. He is a progressive, authoritarian who respects no one and lies without regard to its effects.

Trump fan clubbers have proven that they are no different than Obama worshipers, and the right is basically dominated by indefensible, celebrity loving, voters, just like the left.

It is depressing.

One last thing. I keep hearing Trump lovers claim he is about “common sense”. Could someone explain that, because Trump has literally taken both sides, on important issues like abortion, assault weapon bans, high tariffs, fighting ISIS, Hillary Clinton, the Dream Act, amnesty, high taxes, and Obama’s job performance….to name a few. I dont understand how pandering to the audience that gives you want you want that day…is common sense.

He is just as narcissistic as Obama..i thought we learned the damage that caused, in the past 8 years.

alecj on January 22, 2016 at 7:41 AM

Hear hear! Well said alecj!

MCGIRV on January 23, 2016 at 3:26 PM

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