Jump ball in Iowa: Trump leads by one in new poll from Loras, Cruz leads by two in new one from KBUR

posted at 1:21 pm on January 21, 2016 by Allahpundit

Anybody know where I can get some non-prescription Vicodin? I was planning to rely on whiskey on caucus night once Cruz pulled ahead last month, but now that Trump’s neck-and-neck with him again, I think that’s not going to cut it.

Here’s the new one from Loras showing a bad trend for Cruz:

lor

Nothing unusual here about Cruz losing ground. In the two weeks before Christmas, when Carson’s slide started accelerating, Cruz was at or above 30 percent in no fewer than four different polls. One of those had him up nine points over Trump; another, the Selzer poll, had him up 10. Since Christmas, though, he’s never reached 30 percent again. His poll average right now is 26.4, a point and a half behind Trump — and the new Loras numbers don’t account for Palin’s endorsement or Terry Branstad and Bob Dole slamming Cruz, all of which happened after the survey was taken. If you’re bearish on Cruz, here’s more ammo.

On the other hand, he’s still ahead in some surveys. New from KBUR:

kb

Even in the Loras poll, where he’s a point behind Trump, Cruz is still the favorite to win with a 38 percent chance of victory in Iowa versus a 29 percent chance for Trump. (Trump, however, is favored for the nomination.) That’s because Cruz has more room to grow than Trump does. Although he leads with 26 percent, just 13 percent of the rest of the electorate say they’re considering him as a second choice. Fully 23 percent say so of Cruz. Cruz is also far more popular than Trump, with a net favorability of +53 compared to Trump’s +14. That explains why, I think, Trump has been reluctant lately to say he’s now in a two-man race with Cruz. If other candidates’ supporters start seeing it that way and conclude that they should abandon their guy and choose between Cruz and Trump, there’s every reason to think Cruz would win. That also makes Iowa a tough call for fans of the more center-right candidates like Rubio and Bush, who may hate Trump and want to see him lose but who can’t afford to let their guy have a dismal showing in Iowa a week before New Hampshire. If you’re a Rubio fan, what’s your best interest in Iowa if he’s still hovering between eight and 13 percent a day before the caucuses? Do you stick with him instead of voting for Cruz, knowing that a Trump win in Iowa will make Rubio’s task harder in NH? Or do you break for Cruz to defeat Trump and risk Rubio collapsing in Iowa, which could kill him in NH? Or maybe there’s less of a conflict than I think. Arguably, Rubio fans don’t care if Trump wins New Hampshire so long as they finish second. A good showing by Marco in Iowa improves those chances irrespective of what Trump does.

Speaking of Rubio, you can choose your own adventure based on these two polls. His third-place showing in Loras is exactly where he wants to be per his “3-2-1” strategy. At 13 percent, he’s more than doubled the take of his closest center-right competitor, Jeb Bush. Rubio himself may benefit from strategic voting by Iowans who hate Trump and Cruz but are momentarily committed to other candidates. If you’re a Fiorina fan or a Huckabee fan and you want to wound Cruz and Trump, what’s a better use of your vote? Sticking with them or giving it to Rubio a week before New Hampshire? On the other hand, the KBUR numbers are dismal: Rubio’s just two points ahead of Jeb and two points behind Ben Carson, and if you check the crosstabs you’ll find that he actually trails Jeb ever so slightly among women. Is Team Bush going to end up killing him in Iowa before he even gets his crack at NH?

Update: Just across from Politico, a change of strategy in Iowa by Team Marco.

Marco Rubio had long planned an ambitious Iowa advertising assault in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, but his campaign has quietly scaled back its ad buys in the state by more than $500,000, according to a POLITICO analysis of advertising buys.

The change appears due partly to a switch from offense to defense, but it also comes at a time when the Florida senator is focusing his hopes for an early state victory in South Carolina, where his campaign is increasing its advertising buys, according to the analysis, compiled for POLITICO by The Tracking Firm.

Some of the decrease in Iowa ad spending likely stems from the campaign’s switch from 60-second biographical ads to shorter 30-second ads that are considered more effective as responses to attacks such as those Rubio is facing from his rivals for the GOP nomination and the super PACs supporting them.


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Comments

Trump isn’t bought and paid for by open-border advocates like Jeb Bush, Rubio, and Ted Cruz are.

Again: When has Ted Cruz advocated open borders?
Where those references for ‘open borders’?

I know Ted Cruz wants amnesty and increased immigration and no ban on Muslims, and backed the TPP.

I know Cruz takes money from open-border advocates and that his wife works for a company which also backs open-borders. I know Ted Cruz was involved in the 2006 Bush amnesty attempt.

Proof?

Some folks have learned from the past 30 years of GOP conduct.

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:16 PM

Then you don’t know then?
Why is the establishment GOP lining up for Trump?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:27 PM

It’s over.

NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:26 PM

Teddy Bear says ” half of what you said is untrue”

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:28 PM

Then you don’t know then?
Why is the establishment GOP lining up for Trump?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:27 PM

Like Tojo “lined up” for Truman.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:30 PM

But Teddy Bear is going to “abolish” the eyeareass. And he’s he’s going to vogue “half of what you said is false”. What a quack Teddy Bear is

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:21 PM

Sure he is.

And any day now John Boehner is gonna cut that $100 billion…

…any day now!

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:30 PM

‘I’ve come around a little bit’: Orrin Hatch thinks GOP could win with Trump http://twitchy.com/2016/01/21/ive-come-around-a-little-bit-orrin-hatch-thinks-gop-could-win-with-trump/

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:30 PM

sauldalinsky on January 21, 2016 at 4:26 PM

Canada gets 3 but the Canuck has them wrapped

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:31 PM

Then you don’t know then?
Why is the establishment GOP lining up for Trump?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:27 PM

Like Napoleon “lined up” for Wellington.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:32 PM

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:30 PM

AND Levin gonna grow some hair

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:32 PM

Wow, another IA poll, another Trump lead. CNN: Trump 11 over Ted.

Is is time for Ted to hit the panic button and launch a scorched earth ad blitz against The Donald? Or launch nuclear Cruz missiles at Trump during the Fox debate?

Between Palin, Branstad, and Dole, combined with The Donald’s missives hitting home, it’s been an awful week for Ted.

Dan333 on January 21, 2016 at 4:33 PM

Teddy Bear says ” half of what you said is untrue”

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:28 PM

That depends on what the meaning of “it is” is.

NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:33 PM

Sure he is.

And any day now John Boehner is gonna cut that $100 billion…

…any day now!

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:30 PM

He already did.

At the end of the ten year budget.

NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:34 PM

Will Cruz continue using the “Trump is panicking because he’s losing in the polls” line of attack?

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:36 PM

Teddy Bear says ” half of what you said is untrue”

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:28 PM

That depends on what the meaning of “it is” is.

NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:33 PM

That was a half a drink spewwww

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:37 PM

Will Cruz continue using the “Trump is panicking because he’s losing in the polls” line of attack?

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:36 PM

Absolutely, common core and all

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:38 PM

Yep.

It’s true. CNN now has Trump at +11.
NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:26 PM

“Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%.” (CNN)

“Jump ball”, heh.

whatcat on January 21, 2016 at 4:39 PM

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:32 PM

Are you denying this is taking place?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:39 PM

AP, please put the CNN and Emerson polls in as red updates in the post title.

Then you can make a comment about the jump ball being between Shaq and Billy Barty or something.

This will be funny. Guaranteed.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:40 PM

Matthew [email protected]

Trump vs Sanders
#MakeAmericaDrinkAgain

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:40 PM

I believe they may be capitulating to Trump, yes.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:40 PM

Like Napoleon “lined up” for Wellington.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:32 PM

I HATE you history guys :D

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Will Cruz continue using the “Trump is panicking because he’s losing in the polls” line of attack?

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:36 PM

LOL

NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Works better with context.

Are you denying this is taking place?

orcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:39 PM

I believe the GOPe may be capitulating to Trump, yes.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:41 PM

I believe they may be capitulating to Trump, yes.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:40 PM

Semantics are your best answer?

Wasn’t Trump supposed to be an outsider?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:42 PM

“Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%.” (CNN)

“Jump ball”, heh.

whatcat on January 21, 2016 at 4:39 PM

Glorious.

The anti-Trump’s are shattered.

NWConservative on January 21, 2016 at 4:43 PM

Semantics are your best answer?

Wasn’t Trump supposed to be an outsider?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:42 PM

They may be realizing he has won and they have lost to Trump, the outsider.

It’s not a difficult concept.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:44 PM

I believe the GOPe may be capitulating to Trump, yes.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:41 PM

I think Napoleon called it ” cutting your loses”.

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:44 PM

They may be realizing he has won and they have lost to Trump, the outsider.

It’s not a difficult concept.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:44 PM

NO, it is not

rik on January 21, 2016 at 4:45 PM

AP’s idea of a “jump ball” is Shaquille O’Neil (Trump) vs Muggsy Bogues (Cruz)

dio55 on January 21, 2016 at 4:47 PM

I know Ted Cruz wants amnesty and increased immigration and no ban on Muslims, and backed the TPP.

I know Cruz takes money from open-border advocates and that his wife works for a company which also backs open-borders. I know Ted Cruz was involved in the 2006 Bush amnesty attempt.

Proof?

Headlines…

no ban on Muslims

Cruz on Trump’s proposed Muslim ban: ‘No, that’s not my policy’

increased immigration…

Ted Cruz– “Legal Status for 11+ Million Illegals, Double Legal Immigration, Raise H1B visas by 500%”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDnuWLuAbCw

backed the TPP

Paul Ryan And Ted Cruz wrote an op-ed backing TPP in the Wall Street Journal.

Cruz takes money from open-border advocates

Headline…

Billionaire brothers give Cruz super PAC $15 million

his wife works for a company which also backs open-borders.

According to open-secrets, Goldman Sachs has been one of Rubio’s biggest financial boosters. Since 2011, Goldman Sachs was the top donor to Rubio’s campaign committee, contributing $53,200. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs is also among the top 50 corporate users of the H-1B visa

Some folks have learned from the past 30 years of GOP conduct.

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:16 PM

Then you don’t know then?

No, I only have 30 years of experience to go on.

I guess a more prudent and temperate man would require half a century but that’s how I roll.

Why is the establishment GOP lining up for Trump?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:27 PM

Because they are starting to see the obvious?

Their paid flunkies like Cruz, Rubio, and Jeb Bush just aren’t cutting it.

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:48 PM

Because they are starting to see the obvious?

Their paid flunkies like Cruz, Rubio, and Jeb Bush just aren’t cutting it.

sharrukin on January 21, 2016 at 4:48 PM

…and, believe me, they work hard to put the “flunk” in “flunky”…

ebrown2 on January 21, 2016 at 4:57 PM

Trump needs to get the message out to as many people as possible that Cruz was born in Canada.

weedisgood on January 21, 2016 at 5:05 PM

The hits keep coming:

A new CNN/ORC Iowa poll just released:

Trump 37
Cruz 26
Rubio 14
Carson 6
Bush 3

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 5:05 PM

if allahs gulping then we got this thing in the bag!

renalin on January 21, 2016 at 5:08 PM

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 5:05 PM

Trump is embarrassing the competition.

SpongePuppy on January 21, 2016 at 5:09 PM

The hits keep coming:

A new CNN/ORC Iowa poll just released:

Trump 37
Cruz 26
Rubio 14
Carson 6
Bush 3

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 5:05 PM

AP’s buried that in the headlines – doesn’t fit the Salem narrative, doncha know.

whatcat on January 21, 2016 at 5:12 PM

whatcat on January 21, 2016 at 5:12 PM

Is it doncha or dontja ?

rik on January 21, 2016 at 5:15 PM

The hits keep coming:

A new CNN/ORC Iowa poll just released:

Trump 37
Cruz 26
Rubio 14
Carson 6
Bush 3

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 5:05 PM

Cruz shot himself in the foot. And I say this as someone who has Cruz as my second choice.

I still love Cruz but this is not his time.

We are in a mega battle/war against the Establishment and only a battering ram like Trump can reset things and put America back on track.

After 8 years of Trump smashing the ungodly union of Big Business and politicians that is driving the push for amnesty, then we can discuss Cruz’s candidacy.

Cruz cannot beat Rubio or Jeb in the current environment. Tell me how he wins NH and Florida and the liberal delegate-rich Super Tuesday states? Trump is trouncing the GOPe candidates everywhere.

TheRightMan on January 21, 2016 at 5:20 PM

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:42 PM

They may be realizing he has won and they have lost to Trump, the outsider.

It’s not a difficult concept.

Chomsky Dance Recital on January 21, 2016 at 4:44 PM

Or they could be recognizing that Trump is a deal maker like they are and you could be making a big mistake.

Consider:
1. There haven’t been any votes cast – so no one has ‘won’ yet.
2. The media has yet to unleash it’s full fury at Trump – he’s provided plenty of material so far so they’ve been able to hold their best items back for the real contest.

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 5:20 PM

Is it doncha or dontja ?

rik on January 21, 2016 at 5:15 PM

doncha know? :)

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 5:27 PM

11 more days till the caucus, maybe the phone will finally stop ringing.

agmartin on January 21, 2016 at 5:28 PM

Then you don’t know then?
Why is the establishment GOP lining up for Trump?

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 4:27 PM

It’s looking like it’s inevitable that Trump will be the next POTUS. The GOPe fully understands this outcome.

“Keep your friends close and your enemies closer?”

Typicalwhitewoman on January 21, 2016 at 5:29 PM

I still love Cruz but…

TheRightMan on January 21, 2016 at 5:20 PM

Right. Sometimes love isn’t enough.

anotherJoe on January 21, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Is it doncha or dontja ?

rik on January 21, 2016 at 5:15 PM

Difference is between formal and informal .
:D

whatcat on January 21, 2016 at 5:33 PM

11 more days till the caucus, maybe the phone will finally stop ringing.

agmartin on January 21, 2016 at 5:28 PM

Switch ringer to “off”, let the machine take calls. Makes my life easier.

whatcat on January 21, 2016 at 5:34 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on January 21, 2016 at 5:29 PM

Look what happened the last time people chose the ‘winner’ prematurely.

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 5:42 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on January 21, 2016 at 5:29 PM

Look what happened the last time people chose the ‘winner’ prematurely.

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 5:42 PM

I always knew Romney would lose, but I went out and voted like a good girl.
Same with McCain.
Same with Dole.

No one has come close to inspiring me and most Americans like Donald Trump’s message…”I’ll build a beautiful wall.”

Typicalwhitewoman on January 21, 2016 at 5:47 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on January 21, 2016 at 5:47 PM

I wish people would understand that we could be falling into the same trap.

Torcert on January 21, 2016 at 6:06 PM

We have nothing to lose, Torcert.

I don’t believe Cruz would ever win the general election.
How big are Cruz’s rallies?

Typicalwhitewoman on January 21, 2016 at 6:14 PM

OK. One more time for the Trump supporters. Iowa is a first caucus, then primary vote state. The latter half determines who gets the bulk of delegates to the convention. The former has become a test of organization. In that atmosphere, polls are completely, totally useless.(Shakes head)The big media story coming out of Iowa, is the none coverage of the caucus. The usual media tools(polls, insider views) have failed. The fall back on horse race coverage has exposed the lack of understanding reporters have in covering politics 101. Or to put it another way, you are watching the hands, rather than the feet.(Shorter blogese:SQUIRREL) Who is winning is the wrong question. The correct one is:Who turns out. Right now, the only person who can answer that, is the person who turns up at the caucus sites in two weeks. And in case you forgotten, I leave you all with one name. Matt Bevin.

flackcatcher on January 21, 2016 at 6:22 PM