Oh my: New poll of New Hampshire puts Kasich at 20%, just seven points behind Trump

posted at 2:41 pm on January 19, 2016 by Allahpundit

A Trump/Kasich two-man race for the nomination would, I think, trigger the End Times. And I’m an atheist. I’m not even supposed to believe in the End Times.

Are there any conservative voters left in this party?

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Among Republican voters who say they’re definitely going to vote, Trump leads Kasich by … two points, 24/22. I know what the data nerds are going to say: “That’s an ARG poll and ARG has a C- rating for accuracy from FiveThirtyEight.” Fair enough. Discard it if you like but you can’t ignore the trend in New Hampshire. Go have a look at how Kasich’s numbers have developed lately in RCP’s poll average of the state. In November and December, he was polling steadily in single digits. Then, suddenly, none other than ARG pegged him at 13 percent in late December. Here’s how the polling has gone since then:

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Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Christie are all hovering at around the same level they were at in various polls before the ARG survey in December. The only one who’s moving is Kasich, who was at 7.0 percent in the RCP average on December 17th and has now nearly doubled his share to 13.3 percent. That’s good for second place in the state, as you can see, nearly two full points ahead of the Great Establishment Hope, Marco Rubio. In fact, this makes three polls in a row to have Kasich in second place, albeit tied in the previous two. Meanwhile, Rubio’s just 0.2 percent ahead of Cruz, who will surely catch a bounce in New Hampshire if he wins Iowa or finishes a strong second to Trump. (Chin up, Rubio fans. HuffPo’s poll tracker, which uses a different sample of surveys than RCP, still has him two points ahead of Kasich and Cruz.) The idea that Rubio’s going to surge late in NH as undecideds make up their minds isn’t far-fetched, especially if he beats expectations in Iowa. The idea that he’s going to do it while Kasich, a competitor in the “moderate” lane, is catching fire at the same time is … less plausible. If Trump and Cruz finish far ahead of the field in Iowa, it’s not out of the question that Rubio finishes fourth in New Hampshire behind the two of them and Kasich. He’ll solider on to Florida anyway, but if that happens I think he’s effectively done.

How’s Kasich doing it? Is it his standout debate performances, which have somehow managed to unite voters across the party spectrum in annoyance at him? Is it, as I half-joked above, the fact that there just aren’t many conservatives left in the party, creating room for both a fake conservative like Trump and a loud-and-proud moderate like Kasich in the same New Hampshire primary? I think the truth is more prosaic: Kasich is all-in on New Hampshire, is saturating the market with ads, and no one else is laying a glove on him. Trump and Cruz are killing each other, Cruz and Rubio are killing each other, Rubio and Christie are killing each other, and Bush … well, Bush isn’t really killing anyone but he’s trying to kill Trump and Rubio. And there’s John Kasich, without a scratch on him, racing into second and conceivably now within single digits of catching Trump for the lead. Rubio, Christie, and Bush have exactly three weeks to start blowing this guy up or he’s going to finish top three in the state and the race is quickly going to boil down to Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and John Farking Kasich. Help us, Obi-Wan Cruz-nobi, you’re our only hope.


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<blockquote>The “conservative” movement is dead. People just don’t believe in those policies anymore. They didn’t work for regular middle class Americans and blue collar workers. Only the elite establishment Republicans benefited. That explains why conservatism is not a winning argument this political season.

proverbs427 on January 19, 2016 at 3:21 PM

I don’t know how you define conservatism, nor does it matter. People use it to define whatever good or evil they prefer.

Conservatism, properly defined, is the preservation of that which is good. Its opposite is not liberalism, but anarchy, in which nothing is sacred and nothing is certain.

Conservatism is more than a political philosophy, it is the glue that binds civilization together. It is the distillation of the two most important Biblical commandments.

When asked which was the chiefest of the commandments, Jesus said it is to love God with all of your heart, mind and soul, and second by a hair is to love your neighbor as yourself. Upon this hang all of the law and the prophets. I would add to that, to crush your enemy, see him driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of the women, but that is why he is Jesus and I am just Conan.

My thought is that if you devote yourself to the two things mentioned by Jesus, then you’ll never run out of work before you die, and all of this other crap will never matter.

The problem with Islam is that it forgets the second of the two commandments. The problem with secularism and atheism is that they forget the first.

Immolate on January 19, 2016 at 3:41 PM

Mailman, mailman, do your duty, here comes miss american beauty.
She can do the can-can, she can do the splits,
but most of all she can kiss-kiss-kiss!

portlandon on January 19, 2016 at 3:36 PM

Mailman, mailman, where are thou,
Here comes your BBW,
She will want to snuggle with thee,
Drop the mail, thou fool, and flee!

Rix on January 19, 2016 at 3:45 PM

Trump’s being exposed as a fake christian and conservative. This was bound to happen.

rubberneck on January 19, 2016 at 3:46 PM

“That’s an ARG poll and ARG has a C- rating for accuracy from FiveThirtyEight.”

kcewa on January 19, 2016 at 3:47 PM

Kasich? Oh please NH, don’t encourage him. He is just so… ug.

But I can see how NH would find him appealing, he has that East Coast my dad was a government worker kind of thing going on.

petunia on January 19, 2016 at 3:47 PM

Trump’s being exposed as a fake christian and conservative. This was bound to happen.

rubberneck on January 19, 2016 at 3:46 PM

Wow, and you are the real thing? My guess is Trump is both those things as much as you are.

petunia on January 19, 2016 at 3:48 PM

As a christian Kasich should be familiar with the commandment “Thou shalt not steal”, as in don’t take federal money taken from the taxpayers of other states to plug your state’s medicare hole.

ReformedDeceptiCon on January 19, 2016 at 3:54 PM

The bigger take away is the non-Trump vote seems to be growing.

Tater Salad on January 19, 2016 at 3:57 PM

Yeah, I know. Being an Israeli Jew, I can tell that American Jews vote for Dems with the same suicidal abandon as chicken voting for Col. Sanders. But what I’d like to see is the reverse, black voters for vs against Jewish candidates. Have any numbers?

Rix on January 19, 2016 at 3:40 PM

Sorry, no. But you can probably compile them yourself.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 3:58 PM

As a christian Kasich should be familiar with the commandment “Thou shalt not steal”, as in don’t take federal money taken from the taxpayers of other states to plug your state’s medicare hole.

ReformedDeceptiCon on January 19, 2016 at 3:54 PM

…or get the government to take someone’s property for your own private use.

Tater Salad on January 19, 2016 at 3:58 PM

SMOD 2016, AP?

Dafyd on January 19, 2016 at 3:59 PM

petunia on January 19, 2016 at 3:47 PM

This!

And let’s not forget New Hampshire has less people in the entire state than San Antonio, TX.

brtex on January 19, 2016 at 4:00 PM

These regional primaries are as varied as the makeup of the populations they represent. It’s too soon to make predictions based on early primaries.

onlineanalyst on January 19, 2016 at 4:01 PM

Oh dear, The Karate Kid must have been a huge hit in New Hampshire.

Kasich’s hands
have their own Twitter account, lol.

Fallon on January 19, 2016 at 4:05 PM

Prrrrrrrrrr-fect!!!!!!!!!

Kasich -and- Bush -and- Rubio all stay in the race.

The GOPe vote remains split until it is too late.

Carnac on January 19, 2016 at 4:05 PM

bishop is a king maker!!!!

katy the mean old lady on January 19, 2016 at 4:11 PM

The bigger take away is the non-Trump vote seems to be growing.

Tater Salad on January 19, 2016 at 3:57 PM

That foam coming outta your mouth must be awful thick. ‘Cause if you wipe it and read the numbers carefully, you may suddenly realize that the non-Trump vote seems to have decreased due to – ta-dam! – increased Trump’s share. The precious, it hurts…

Rix on January 19, 2016 at 4:17 PM

Kasich is to 2016 like McCain was to 2008–a little left of the mainstream of the Republican Party, a little mavericky, and maybe considered more electable by moderate Republicans. Kasich doesn’t have the foreign-policy cred that McCain did in 2008 (the troop surge in Iraq), but Kasich is one of only two sitting Governors anywhere near the lead, and his being a popular Governor of the second largest swing-state (Ohio) could help.

McCain’s campaign in 2008 got a huge boost from winning New Hampshire, but could Kasich do the same? IMHO, probably not. McCain also got a big boost from the endorsement by then-Governor Charlie Crist of Florida (who later turned into a Democrat), but Kasich doesn’t stand a chance in Florida against two Floridians (Bush and Rubio).

After Florida, Kasich could be a mini-kingmaker by dropping out and endorsing either Rubio or Bush (whichever of them got more votes in Florida), with the chance of being a VP nominee for the endorsee if he wins the nomination. If Kasich stayed in after Florida, he would (as Carnac suggests) draw votes away from Rubio and/or Bush, thereby helping tRump or Cruz.

Steve Z on January 19, 2016 at 4:26 PM

This may be the strangest day, in the strangest election EVAH!!!

CRUZ/Kasich 2016 baby!!!

It least this got me from raging about the Palin endorsement of the NY Progressive, who may or may not be banned from visiting foreign lands and criticized Mitt for being “maniacal” in his “harsh” immigration policy

I need the voting to start. Now

Charliecrown on January 19, 2016 at 4:28 PM

hahahahaha

Trump/Palin 2016!

Red headline on Drudge, Palin endorses Trump

captnjoe on January 19, 2016 at 4:32 PM

heads are going to explode now! lmao

captnjoe on January 19, 2016 at 4:33 PM

Heads may not explode, but certainly eyes are rolling all over the place.

I may move back to “undecided”, depending on what Mrs.Hokums says in the next few weeks in that hokey folkey stupid cadence she has.

Andy__B on January 19, 2016 at 4:36 PM

Meh. New Hampshire has always been famously unpredictable.

hillbillyjim on January 19, 2016 at 4:37 PM

Second meh.

Polls aren’t what they used to be, either.

hillbillyjim on January 19, 2016 at 4:38 PM

NH has a lot of MA infiltration because of MA’s high taxation.

onlineanalyst on January 19, 2016 at 4:39 PM

Kasich’s support must be made up entirely of the demographic known colloquially as People Who Do Not Have Internet, because I have come into contact with exactly ZERO people online who like this guy.
Who are these mystery morons?

Herod on January 19, 2016 at 4:41 PM

Second meh.

Polls aren’t what they used to be, either.

hillbillyjim on January 19, 2016 at 4:38 PM

Several poll aggregators called 50/50 states in 2012, so what do you base this on exactly?

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 4:44 PM

The GOPe is throwing anything against the wall to see if it sticks. Now they are rigging polls if you ask me.

Kasich smasich.

captnjoe on January 19, 2016 at 4:45 PM

I don’t but it with Kasich. Something doesn’t seem right about the guy and his body movements make me think he has Parkinson’s Disease.

Nat George on January 19, 2016 at 6:22 PM

In another HotAir thread yesterday, I noted that we would probably see yet another article on this site in a day or two, titled “Second Look At (ENTER NAME HERE) ?
And, like clockwork, here it is: Only, clothed in the filmy disguise of a solitary poll. In a solitary state.

Sorry, Salem: Not giving Kasich a second look, EVER.
He’s the Dollar Store version of Jeb Bush.

orangemtl on January 19, 2016 at 6:37 PM

Is it his standout debate performances, which have somehow managed to unite voters across the party spectrum in annoyance at him?

Quick, someone saturate the NH airwaves with Kasich debate clips.

Hey, Trump, Kasich’s kicking your but in New Hampshire. Better show the voters how much he sucks.

talkingpoints on January 19, 2016 at 6:40 PM

Voters, if you don’t cooperate, we might get three extra Kasich debate performances! Let that sink in and do the right thing.

talkingpoints on January 19, 2016 at 6:41 PM

Ha, I made a wish the other day that Kasich would be the next candidate out of the race.

Thanks, karma.

Chuckles3 on January 19, 2016 at 7:31 PM

He is my Gov..personally think he should stay where he is..also one must remember that he ran against the worst Dem. failed Gov. evah!!! Re-Tread Ted Strickland…

Xango Annie on January 19, 2016 at 10:00 PM

Mailmen are very important in NH because there isn’t really any internet. Only very recently did they stop delivering paper scrolls on horseback. Even NH pundit Mark Steyn catches up on his email while subbing for Rush in his luxurious studio. I think this explains the Kasich phenom.

He doesn’t have Parkinson’s. Kasich Palsy more likely: excessive gesticulation and repetition accompanied by delusions of grandeur.

virgo on January 20, 2016 at 1:45 AM

Second meh.

Polls aren’t what they used to be, either.

hillbillyjim on January 19, 2016 at 4:38 PM

Several poll aggregators called 50/50 states in 2012, so what do you base this on exactly?

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 4:44 PM

Um, the fact that pollsters admit that they are struggling to adapt to the changing methods of telephony, for the main thing.

For the next thing, there are more polls which are for some reason being touted as something to stand upon that are basically invitations for basement dwellers such as yourself to attempt to game.

If that isn’t enough, there is the growing perception that anything and everything that one does electronically, whether it is a phone call to Ma or a Q & A session with a total stranger, may come back to haunt one because of another growing perception that Big Brother is watching.

Go ahead and laugh —

— then ask your friends how many of them answer poll questions honestly and without trepidation.

hillbillyjim on January 20, 2016 at 2:01 AM

This poll is rubbish. I live in New Hampshire and the only one people are talking about is Trump. The headcount at his rallies around the state are the true measure of what’s going on.

Kasich has zero chance.

dogsoldier on January 20, 2016 at 8:59 AM

virgo on January 20, 2016 at 1:45 AM

Don’t believe the poll it’s nonsense and btw we have something better than the innertubes. We have the clothesline telegraph system!

dogsoldier on January 20, 2016 at 9:01 AM

Kasich kinda looks like a white KRS-One.

TMOverbeck on January 20, 2016 at 10:17 AM

Are there any conservative voters left in this party?

What would you know about conservatives you RINO camel molester?

earlgrey on January 20, 2016 at 10:40 AM

This poll is rubbish. I live in New Hampshire and the only one people are talking about is Trump. The headcount at his rallies around the state are the true measure of what’s going on.

Kasich has zero chance.

dogsoldier on January 20, 2016 at 8:59 AM

The camel molester pulls all kinds of crap out of his camels butt. Pun intended.

earlgrey on January 20, 2016 at 10:41 AM

Kasich…His Bible tells him he should spend your money on social programs because it will get him brownies with St. Peter.

By the way did you know his dad was a mailman?

bluesdoc70 on January 20, 2016 at 11:20 AM

dogsoldier on January 20, 2016 at 9:18 AM

I posted this in the wrong thread.

dogsoldier on January 20, 2016 at 2:25 PM

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