Did Hillary bet the farm on Iowa?

posted at 5:21 pm on January 19, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

How bad has the 2016 campaign gone for Hillary Clinton? The New York Times takes note of the fact that the presumed coronation candidate now runs the risk of losing both opening contests in the Democratic primary season. Team Hillary laid down as much as 90% of their resources on winning Iowa, a state that stunned her with a loss in 2008. Get ready for another stunning loss, and perhaps a long slog to the nomination for the entire party:

Facing a tougher than expected challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is preparing for a primary fight that could stretch into late April or early May and require a sprawling field operation in states and territories from Pennsylvania to Guam.

With the Iowa caucuses in two weeks and Mr. Sanders’s insurgent candidacy chipping away at Mrs. Clinton’s once formidable lead there, Clinton aides are acknowledging that the road to the party’s July convention could be an expensive slog. “Remember, I campaigned all the way into June last time,” Mrs. Clinton told CNN last week.

Even though the Clinton team has sought to convey that it has built a national operation, the campaign has invested much of its resources in the Feb. 1 caucuses in Iowa, hoping that a victory there could marginalize Mr. Sanders and set Mrs. Clinton on the path to the nomination. As much as 90 percent of the campaign’s resources are now split between Iowa and the Brooklyn headquarters, according to an estimate provided by a person with direct knowledge of the spending. The campaign denied that figure. …

The focus on Iowa, which still haunts Mrs. Clinton after the stinging upset by Barack Obama there in 2008, has been so intense that even organizers in New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Feb. 9, have complained to the campaign’s leadership that they feel neglected.

Right now, the latest Des Moines Register poll — usually considered to be the gold standard in Iowa — shows Hillary in a virtual tie with Sanders, 42/40. Previous polling in the DMR series over the last few months showed Hillary’s lead to be much less than in other polling, but still outside the margin of error. The RCP overall average for the last month gives Clinton a 4-point lead, but that includes an eye-popping outlier from Gravis that shows Hillary with a 21-point edge. Take that out of the equation, and it shows Sanders closing the gap over the past three months to move into a tie with Hillary.

This matters because Hillary is tailing off in New Hampshire, a state she did win in 2008. Sanders is more of a local favorite from neighboring Vermont anyway, but the RCP average shows Sanders up by 6.7 points in the Granite State. Fox and Monmouth put his lead in double digits this month, with PPP the only polling outfit this month showing a Hillary lead — and that only by three points. Barack Obama won one of the first two states and went on to defeat Hillary in a drawn-out fight. What happens if another progressive populist wins both Iowa and New Hampshire?

NBC declares Iowa a must-win state for Hillary. If not, Sanders might not be the only competition:

But if she loses Iowa, then, yes, a highly competitive Democratic race will extend into April and May. And that’s not all — panicky Democrats will become even more nervous, Joe Biden’s phone will ring, Michael Bloomberg’s phone will ring, too. Make no mistake, Bernie Sanders isn’t going away. But if you assume, one way or another, that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Iowa will determine whether she gets it the easy way or the hard way. So on the Democratic side, no contest will be more impactful than the Iowa caucuses, which are now less than two weeks away.

Of these, Bloomberg is the biggest potential threat to Hillary. Biden, while still on the short list for Democrats, occupies much the same space as Hillary does in the Democratic Party, especially his status as defender of the Obama status quo and the patron of the financial industry. Bloomberg has the latter, too, but he’s got the money to organize on his own and potentially curb the influence of the grassroots.

The arrival of either or both would tend to dilute Hillary’s traction, not Sanders. And if it encourages Bloomberg to pursue an independent bid, then Democrats will have a real problem on their hands.


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Comments

No you she will buy the farm in Iowa. The end. Plant tulips.

jake49 on January 19, 2016 at 5:24 PM

But, but… the drapes!!!

Marcola on January 19, 2016 at 5:27 PM

Ed is such a good writer- I hate that HotAir has turned into the Trump/Cruz crazy page.

BettyRuth on January 19, 2016 at 5:28 PM

And don’t forget about the prospects of Martin O’Ma…. Never mind, I can’t finish that sentence with a straight face.

J.S.K. on January 19, 2016 at 5:29 PM

I am salivating at the thought of a populist, man of the people contest between billionaires tRump and Doomberg.

MJBrutus on January 19, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Trump already bought it:-)

bluefox on January 19, 2016 at 5:30 PM

No, but they are putting her out to pasture.

Oil Can on January 19, 2016 at 5:30 PM

Man I hate this development. What with the GOP breaking up any minute its going to be so easy for Bernie to take the election and all. Oh well.

bwahahahaha!

DanMan on January 19, 2016 at 5:32 PM

…and lost it.

The predicament the R/Ds are in, so much fun.

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

How bad has the 2016 campaign gone for Hillary Clinton? The New York Times takes note of the fact that the presumed coronation candidate now runs the risk of losing both opening contests in the Democratic primary season.

Okay so one more time:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

What is the cut-off date for new candidates to jump into the race?

Ukiah on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

But, but… the drapes!!!

Marcola on January 19, 2016 at 5:27 PM

Hillary had best get started on picking out drapes…
Tlaloc on August 10, 2015 at 3:49 PM

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2016 at 5:34 PM

What is the cut-off date for new candidates to jump into the race?

Ukiah on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

The Dems can nominate whoever they want at the convention. If bernie wins, and they don’t want him, they will find a technicality to nominate someone else.That nominee just won’t have any national campaign infrastructure, donors, financing…

tdarrington on January 19, 2016 at 5:38 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

So are you a fan of national Socialist presidential candidate BS?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:40 PM

Trump v. Sanders for the last President of the First Republic.

Lou Budvis on January 19, 2016 at 5:43 PM

So are you a fan of national Socialist presidential candidate BS?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:40 PM

I have no idea what you are asking.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:43 PM

So are you a fan of national Socialist presidential candidate BS?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:40 PM

I have no idea what you are asking.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:43 PM

Reading comprehension not your strong suit?

Which words are you having trouble understanding?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:45 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:43 PM

Definition of national
adjective
1 Relating to or characteristic of a nation; common to a whole nation:
this policy may have been in the national interest
a national newspaper
Origin Late 16th century: from French, from Latin natio(n-) ‘birth, race of people’ (see nation).
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/english/national

Definition of socialism
a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole. policy or practice based on the political and economic theory of socialism.
(in Marxist theory) a transitional social state between the overthrow of capitalism and the realization of Communism.
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/socialism

Does that clear things up for you?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:49 PM

Bloomberg has the latter, too, but he’s got the money to organize……and potentially curb the influence of the grassroots.

Think so?

How’d that strategy work out for the GOP(e) in 2016?

aquaviva on January 19, 2016 at 5:51 PM

Does that clear things up for you?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:49 PM

No, not really, why don’t you try qualifying what it is that you are saying is “national socialist presidential candidate BS”.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:51 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

Sure… anything is possible.
But more likely is a repeat of 2008. Hillary is her own worst enemy. She is homely, she is ugly in personality, she’s a terrible liar and she does it too often, she is short, she is shrill, she cackles, she is overbearing, she acts like she is the presumptive nominee… and that’s just what the democrat primary people see!

The democrat mantra, anyone but Hillary.

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 5:52 PM

So are you a fan of national Socialist presidential candidate BS?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:40 PM

I have no idea what you are asking.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:43 PM

Do I need to post the definitions of the other words in that sentence?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:53 PM

No, not really, why don’t you try qualifying what it is that you are saying is “national socialist presidential candidate Bernie Sanders”.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:51 PM

FIFY Toodles

RickB on January 19, 2016 at 5:53 PM

Do I need to post the definitions of the other words in that sentence?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:53 PM

If you want me to answer you you should do what I asked, if you choose not to *shrug*

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:54 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:51 PM

Bernie Sanders is a national presidential candidate and a Socialist, correct?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:55 PM

Sure… anything is possible.
But more likely is a repeat of 2008. Hillary is her own worst enemy. She is homely, she is ugly in personality, she’s a terrible liar and she does it too often, she is short, she is shrill, she cackles, she is overbearing, she acts like she is the presumptive nominee… and that’s just what the democrat primary people see!

The democrat mantra, anyone but Hillary.

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 5:52 PM

I like bernie, but he’s no Obama in terms of appeal to voters, and Hillary seems to have learned a lot from getting ambushed in 2008.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:56 PM

Bernie Sanders is a national presidential candidate and a Socialist, correct?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 5:55 PM

Gosh, I wonder if you’re clumsily trying to call him a national socialist?

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:58 PM

Hillary should be sweating a possible indictment.

rbj on January 19, 2016 at 5:59 PM

Failed Iowan strategy: Those farmers won’t mistake my butt for two hogs fighting in a sack.

Pistonhead on January 19, 2016 at 6:00 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:58 PM

“Inside Every Progressive Is A Totalitarian Screaming to Get Out.”

Are you one of those closet totalitarians who want to dictate how and where people can use certain words and phrases?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:00 PM

Still haven’t seen cause to alter my 2012 prediction:

Hillary Clinton won’t be the 2016 Democrat nominee for president.

Lolo on January 19, 2016 at 6:00 PM

Thanks Torcert, you asked before I could.

Lord Whorfin on January 19, 2016 at 6:06 PM

Lol, tialoc also flirting with a Godwin infraction.

Lord Whorfin on January 19, 2016 at 6:06 PM

“Remember, I campaigned all the way into June last time,” Mrs. Clinton told CNN last week.

And she still lost.

Johnnyreb on January 19, 2016 at 6:10 PM

Hillary seems to have learned a lot from getting ambushed in 2008.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:56 PM

Are you being willfully obtuse? C’mon she was way ahead in both Iowa and Illinois and now? Why? Because she just is not good. And I don’t mean to conservatives, she turns off her own when juxtaposed against anyone face to face, not in polls. The evidence has been there since 08 and is being corroborated after each on stage appearance with Bernie. For Pete’s sake… Bernie Sanders! Bernie is more likable than she is! Bernie “I’m a communist” Sanders!

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 6:12 PM

um Torcet…don’t engage the dipshit

DanMan on January 19, 2016 at 6:15 PM

“Inside Every Progressive Is A Totalitarian Screaming to Get Out.”

Are you one of those closet totalitarians who want to dictate how and where people can use certain words and phrases?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:00 PM

Awww, did that trap you spent days on completely fail?

I’m sorry.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:15 PM

I like bernie, but he’s no Obama in terms of appeal to voters, and Hillary seems to have learned a lot from getting ambushed in 2008.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:56 PM

Hillary did not get ambushed in 2008, she actually had to appear in public and she is horrible at that.

Johnnyreb on January 19, 2016 at 6:19 PM

She is starting to talk about her presidency being Obama’s third term. It seems to me that she us only trying to get Zobama not to indict her. An indictment wouid really scramble the race and eliminate her from contention.

Techster64 on January 19, 2016 at 6:19 PM

Did Hillary bet the farm on Iowa?

God I hope so.

Oxymoron on January 19, 2016 at 6:19 PM

Hillary seems to have learned a lot from getting ambushed in 2008.

Kenny Bania on January 19, 2016 at 5:56 PM

Yeah, that’s why today’s new “credible mainstream outlet” CNN poll has her losing New Hampshire to Bernie, 60-33.

F-

Del Dolemonte on January 19, 2016 at 6:20 PM

Are you being willfully obtuse? C’mon she was way ahead in both Iowa and Illinois and now? Why? Because she just is not good. And I don’t mean to conservatives, she turns off her own when juxtaposed against anyone face to face, not in polls. The evidence has been there since 08 and is being corroborated after each on stage appearance with Bernie. For Pete’s sake… Bernie Sanders! Bernie is more likable than she is! Bernie “I’m a communist” Sanders!

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 6:12 PM

You’re listening to the conservative echo chamber and thinking it reflects reality. It doesn’t. In reality Hillary is pretty popular with Dems and is heavily favored to win the nomination. Bernie has shown little ability to appeal to minority populations which means he has a decent shot at IA and NH and basically nowhere else.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:20 PM

Hillary did not get ambushed in 2008, she actually had to appear in public and she is horrible at that.

Johnnyreb on January 19, 2016 at 6:19 PM

She got completely blindsided by Obama when it came to the caucuses.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:21 PM

Yeah, that’s why today’s new “credible mainstream outlet” CNN poll has her losing New Hampshire to Bernie, 60-33.

F-

Del Dolemonte on January 19, 2016 at 6:20 PM

Which has nothing to do with what I said, but then it’s pure optimism to expect any substance from you…

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:22 PM

Bernie has shown little ability to appeal to minority populations which means he has a decent shot at IA and NH and basically nowhere else.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:20 PM

Remember when they were saying that about some guy with an odd name and no experience named Obama? Good times.

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 6:23 PM

Could be a strange election.

On the Rep. side we have a man who is not a Republican.

On the Dem. side we have a man who is not a Democrat.

Are people fed up with the status quo?

FOWG1 on January 19, 2016 at 6:23 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:20 PM

You fail to see Hillary as she is. This isn’t a message, politic or platform problem, this is a physical and campaign problem that she can’t overcome. Become a senator is one thing, a president, that isn’t going to happen unless a lucky streak goes her way and Jeb is the nominee. She just is not good on stage. She proves it over and over.

That isn’t conservative echo chamber, that is the blatant truth facing you.

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 6:27 PM

Remember when they were saying that about some guy with an odd name and no experience named Obama? Good times.

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 6:23 PM

Who exactly said Obama couldn’t appeal to minorities?

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:27 PM

She got completely blindsided by Obama when it came to the caucuses.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:21 PM

No she did not. She is a horrible campaigner both then and now and her arrogance got the best of her, she was not blindsided or ambushed by anything. She assumed she was inevitable in both races and ran her campaign that way and it cost her then and it is costing her again. She isn’t as smart and politically savvy as she thinks she is and it is going to cost her the nomination for this time also.

Johnnyreb on January 19, 2016 at 6:28 PM

You fail to see Hillary as she is. This isn’t a message, politic or platform problem, this is a physical and campaign problem that she can’t overcome. Become a senator is one thing, a president, that isn’t going to happen unless a lucky streak goes her way and Jeb is the nominee. She just is not good on stage. She proves it over and over.

That isn’t conservative echo chamber, that is the blatant truth facing you.

Neitherleftorright on January 19, 2016 at 6:27 PM

Except she’s done quite well on the dem debates, which strongly suggests there’s at least an audience on the left that finds her very palatable. She’s also leading the dem nomination race rather handily.

Your ‘truth’ is just your perception.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:29 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:15 PM

What is it about progressives and their over-reliance on false narratives?

Everyone note that she failed to even get close to offering honest answers – as is typical.

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:32 PM

Lord Whorfin on January 19, 2016 at 6:06 PM

Thank you – I believe my point was made in that our comrade couldn’t even bring herself to engage in honest debate.

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:34 PM

No she did not. She is a horrible campaigner both then and now and her arrogance got the best of her, she was not blindsided or ambushed by anything. She assumed she was inevitable in both races and ran her campaign that way and it cost her then and it is costing her again. She isn’t as smart and politically savvy as she thinks she is and it is going to cost her the nomination for this time also.

Johnnyreb on January 19, 2016 at 6:28 PM

here’s an example:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=4167990&page=1

Clinton won the vote but Obama got the larger share of delegates in the caucus.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:35 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:29 PM

Then why are they burying them?

Shouldn’t #ComradeClinton do better by exposing herself to more audiences?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:35 PM

By the way 538 has a tool for predicting various nomination likelihoods with two models (polls only or polls plus incidentals):

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:46 PM

Then why are they burying them?

Shouldn’t #ComradeClinton do better by exposing herself to more audiences?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:35 PM

Because the GOP nomination is a slow moving train wreck and she’s only helped by letting that dominate the media cycles. Hence the famous quote.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:47 PM

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:35 PM

Because the GOP nomination is a slow moving train wreck and she’s only helped by letting that dominate the media cycles. Hence the famous quote.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 6:47 PM

And once again you FAIL to answer the question.

Is that SOP for the national Socialist Left along with a set of daily TP’s as standard kit?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:49 PM

And once again you FAIL to answer the question.

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 6:49 PM

You not liking the answer and it not being an answer aren’t the same thing, Torcert.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 7:04 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 7:04 PM

Ah yes, the usual response to a Comrade on the national Socialist Left FAILING to answer a question..

Is that also part of the standard kit of TP’s?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 7:09 PM

Okay so one more time:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 5:33 PM

The thing is Silver’s analysis assumes a certain status quo in the news cycle. But time is not Hillary’s friend this go round. She must build her delegates early as every day brings a new news story that heaps ever more damage on her. And the dams of the MSM protection are starting to crumble. The further she goes the more blood there is in the water. It’s a particularly desperate horse race regarding her legal troubles. Major Dem’s will only waste political capital protecting her from prosecution if she is the clear and uncontested front runner/nominée. If she shows signs of fading early those in the Justice department may see more political benefit in sacrificing her.

patches on January 19, 2016 at 7:14 PM

Ah yes, the usual response to a Comrade on the national Socialist Left FAILING to answer a question..

Is that also part of the standard kit of TP’s?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 7:09 PM

Let me know when you’re done preening.

Meanwhile:
Krugman on Bernie.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 7:17 PM

The thing is Silver’s analysis assumes a certain status quo in the news cycle. But time is not Hillary’s friend this go round. She must build her delegates early as every day brings a new news story that heaps ever more damage on her.

patches on January 19, 2016 at 7:14 PM

Your perception is belied by the actual polling:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

She’s about 9 points higher than last September when the email ‘scandal’ was at its worst.

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 7:19 PM

The party of old, rich, white folks cannot rely on an affirmative action hire to bail them out this time, unless you count squaw Lizzie.

Even $$ says Bernie is in better health than Hillary, but there is no way the Dems give him the nom under any circumstance.

The Dem ticket is Hill’s unless her health and/or the internal polling goes south. Then, all bets are off as to whom will get the nod.

fortcoins on January 19, 2016 at 7:50 PM

Tlaloc on January 19, 2016 at 7:17 PM

Let me know when you’re going to engage in an honest dialog…

Oh wait.. you comrades on the national Socialist Left cannot do that..

As you keep on aptly demonstrating..

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 7:59 PM

Hillary had best get started on picking out drapes…
Tlaloc on August 10, 2015 at 3:49 PM

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2016 at 5:34 PM

Do inmates normally have this privilege?

Torcert on January 19, 2016 at 8:01 PM

Doesn’t Don Tyson usually bet the farm for Shrillary.

Now that he’s taking the dirt nap that’s less doable than with the cattle futures switcheroo.

viking01 on January 19, 2016 at 8:38 PM

Krugman on Bernie.

Kenny Bania on January 19, 2016 at 7:17 PM

LOL! Pauline Krugman, Kenny? “Champion of the Poor 101” indeed….

Please, never ever lose your special brand of Stupid.

I notice in your link that he gives Hillario a Pass for voting for Bush’s War in Iraq, while blissfully ignoring her forceful speech on the Senate floor at the same time saying that she cast her vote “with conviction”.

By the way, CNN and NBC have now picked up that IG-Hillary e-mail story. Must suck to be you tonight…

Now, let’s take apart Pauline Krugman, brick by brick. This isn’t gonna be pretty, Kenny!

1. Pauline’s picture is in the dictionary under the entry “fearmongering”.

2. Pauline’s paid $300,000 a year for a “third job” as a CUNY “consultant”, a “job” where Pauline only has to “work” 9 months a year. This is on top of Pauline’s $225,000 a year “salary” at Princeton, and Pauline $300,000+ per year “writing” for the NY Times.

3. Pauline makes 5 figures per speech on the speaking circuit, and at least 5 figures on his book sales.

4. Pauline Krugman owns a waterfront condo in St. Croix.

5. Pauline’s luxury home in New Jersey is still listed in CelebrityHousePictures.com

6. Her “Nobel Prize in Economics” isn’t even a real Nobel Prize; it was created out of thin air almost a hundred years after the original Nobel Prizes were endowed, and wasn’t even created by the Nobel Foundation, but by a bunch of cheese-eating European “economists”, many of whom have run that continent into the ruin it’s in today. Its actual name is the “Memorial Award in Economics”, and its only association with the Nobel Foundation is that they administer it.

7. In a 2002 NY Times column, Krugs said this:

To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

But in 2009, after the housing bubble Krugs advocated crashed the economy, she weakly squealed:

“It wasn’t a piece of policy advocacy, it was just economic analysis. What I said was that the only way the Fed could get traction would be if it could inflate a housing bubble. And that’s just what happened.”

LOL!

8. Between April of 2012 and July of 2012, Pauline predicted that the EURO would collapse on 11 different occasions. As of today, the EURO is worth $1.09 US.

9. F-

Del Dolemonte on January 19, 2016 at 9:35 PM