Trump now leads Rubio and Cruz in prediction markets to win the GOP nomination

posted at 11:21 am on January 14, 2016 by Allahpundit

An hors d’oeuvre to whet your appetite for tonight’s debate. Good news for the guy who’s led nearly every poll for seven months: He’s now a slight favorite for the nomination over a guy who doesn’t lead anywhere and is having trouble cracking 15 percent.

Donald Trump is the new favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination, Betfair said, less than three weeks before Iowa caucus-goers cast the first votes of the 2016 election.

The odds on a Trump victory are 15/8, or 34 percent, putting the billionaire real-estate mogul as favourite in the market for the first time, Betfair said in an e-mailed statement in London on Wednesday. Previous favourite Marco Rubio widened to 11/5, or 31 percent, while Ted Cruz is 7/2, 22 percent. Betfair didn’t provide earlier odds in its e-mail.

It’s not just Betfair. PredictWise, which combines data from Betfair with data from other sources, also has Trump at 34 percent versus 32 percent for Rubio and 21 percent for the criminally undervalued Cruz, who’s the frontrunner in Iowa as I write this and has certainly run the best campaign of the primary so far. The case for Trump winning is straightforward: He’s not just ahead in 49 of 50 states, he’s surfing a wave of enthusiasm that no other GOP candidate remotely approaches. Yesterday he pointed to the size of his crowds as evidence that, at least at this early stage, his movement is bigger than Reagan’s. And then he said something interesting. “Why would a person stand in line for seven hours [to attend a rally] and then not want to go into a voting booth? It takes 10 minutes. So I think they’re going to vote.” If he’s right, that’s probably endgame for Cruz in Iowa.

But is he right?

But the challenge in Iowa is that historically, caucusgoers — only a sliver of registered voters — have had to be coaxed out by a field team, rather than be counted on to show up and vote on their own. This is especially true of the demographic that supports Mr. Trump: younger voters and others with a low propensity to turn out.

As temperatures plunged to single digits over the weekend, canvassers for Hillary Clinton posted photographs of themselves on social media going door to door in the snow. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s volunteers in Davenport, a city where the campaign appears to be better organized than elsewhere, decided it was too cold to go out.

Seven volunteers worked the phones at the Iowa headquarters of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in a Des Moines suburb one night last week. At the state headquarters of Mr. Cruz, there were 24 volunteers in a room beneath a sign proclaiming a daily goal of making 6,000 calls. The Trump state headquarters in West Des Moines were largely deserted.

How many Trump fans are at the rallies because they desperately want to see Trump become president and how many are there for the show? Nor is it just Trump’s ground game that may be lacking. After promising last month to spend $2 million on ads each week in early 2016, Trump’s ad buys in Iowa and New Hampshire this week amount to less than $700,000. For the life of me, I can’t understand why a guy worth $10 billion would take risks by not emptying his arsenal against his opponents when he has the resources to do so. Trump fans will say that he doesn’t need ads because he gets tons of earned media from interviews and he’s already universally known among voters. But that name recognition and earned media hasn’t been enough to knock Cruz back in Iowa; the race is close there, and Cruz is favored to win it. There’s no good reason why Trump should be holding back on Cruz at this point instead of running ads hitting him on his eligibility, the 2013 shutdown, the difficulties he might face working with a Congress that hates him, and so on. Is this a pride thing for Trump, i.e. he wants to prove that he can win the nomination unconventionally, through sheer charisma, without spending the giant sums that people like Jeb Bush have wasted? Why would you leave anything on the table when you’re this close to winning a major-party nomination?


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Trump is turning the GOP into the “Old White Man’s Party” even more than it already was.

Even worse, these aren’t kindly old white men, but red-pill-snarfing jerkwads who want everyone to know how small their brains are.

The Republican Party is dead. Long live the Libertarian Party.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

Allow me…..

jake-the-goose on January 14, 2016 at 1:06 PM

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

Rand’s Froot Loops have gone mushy.

Pork-Chop on January 14, 2016 at 1:12 PM

blink on January 14, 2016 at 1:09 PM
Pork-Chop on January 14, 2016 at 1:12 PM

And the red-pill-munching retards come out of the woodwork.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:14 PM

Old Style Rant:

Ahh, but the strawberries that’s… that’s where I had them. They laughed at me and made jokes but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt and with… geometric logic… that a duplicate key to the wardroom icebox DID exist, and I’d have produced that key if they hadn’t of pulled the Caine out of action. I, I, I know now they were only trying to protect some fellow officers…

New Spittle flecked Rant:

Even worse, these aren’t kindly old white men, but red-pill-snarfing jerkwads who want everyone to know how small their brains are.

The Republican Party is dead. Long live the Libertarian Party.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

Athos on January 14, 2016 at 1:18 PM

Old White Man’s Party:
LP 2012-Gary Johnson
LP 2008-Bob Barr
LP 2004-Michael Badnarik
LP 2000-Harry Browne
LP 1996-Harry Browne
LP-1992-Andre Marrou
LP 1988-Ron Paul

Tell me again about the Old White Man GOP, TBSchemer….I’m all agaog!

Also, LP-2016….#WOW# It’s an ice cream fest…looks almost like a Vox Group photo.

Do you bother to think about what you are about to post, or is it just stream of consciousness “Bong Talk?”

JFKY on January 14, 2016 at 1:23 PM

The Republican Party is dead. Long live the Libertarian Party.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

There was a time when I was somewhat intrigued with the libertarian wing, but then I began to read TotallyBSSchemer on here and that coupled with the folly put forth by the Rands dissuaded me of that.

Neitherleftorright on January 14, 2016 at 1:23 PM

TBSchemer. Jan 14, 2016 at 1:14 pm

Just curious — what are these red pills of which you speak?

cam2 on January 14, 2016 at 1:27 PM

There was a time when I was somewhat intrigued with the libertarian wing, but then I began to read TotallyBSSchemer on here and that coupled with the folly put forth by the Rands dissuaded me of that.

Neitherleftorright on January 14, 2016 at 1:23 PM

Keep reading political philosophy, and you’ll eventually come around.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:28 PM

Yup. TDShcumer is damaging the libertarian brand so effectively that’s it’s obviously being done purposefully since he’s really an anarchical globalist.

blink on January 14, 2016 at 1:30 PM

Coming from a diehard Trumpist, that’s a huge compliment.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:32 PM

There was a time when I was somewhat intrigued with the libertarian wing …

Neitherleftorright on January 14, 2016 at 1:23 PM

There was time when Rand Paul was intrigued as well, but he eventually grew to abhor libertarians …

Rand Paul: “They thought all along that they could call me a libertarian and hang that label around my neck like an albatross, but I’m not a libertarian.”

Pork-Chop on January 14, 2016 at 1:35 PM

A new Morning Consult poll finds that Donald Trump continues to lead his Republican rivals by 30 percentage points ahead of tonight’s debate in South Carolina. The poll also reveals that all of the GOP contenders have a favorability rating of less than 50 percent, with Jeb Bush receiving the highest unfavorability marks at 54 percent.

The Morning Consult weekly tracking poll surveyed 2,173 registered voters online between Jan. 8 and 10 for a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Trumpmentum is building.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 1:41 PM

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 1:41 PM

Interesting – thank you for that post

jake-the-goose on January 14, 2016 at 1:48 PM

Keep reading political philosophy, and you’ll eventually come around.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:28 PM

There is often a distinct difference between much philosophy and reality.

Neitherleftorright on January 14, 2016 at 1:49 PM

Well blow me over with a feather. It’s not good news, but it’s not surprising.

There really is no moral high ground anymore at all. That ended when the misfits in the Party decided that Romney was unacceptable. Then the bad angels took over.

But the Republican’s bad angels are 100 times better than the best of what the Democrats have to offer.

Hopefully, I can convince myself to see the good in Trump and at least put all his many many downsides to the back burner.

Surprisingly, there are candidates I have come to respect less.
Please, Trump just don’t be what your naysayers say you are. Please.

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 1:51 PM

There is often a distinct difference between much philosophy and reality.

Neitherleftorright on January 14, 2016 at 1:49 PM

I’m a scientist. It’s my job to find the theories that best explain the real world. In political philosophy, Libertarianism is the answer.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:55 PM

The Republican Party is dead. Long live the Libertarian Party.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

The stupid Lib party has a lifespan equivalent to the knees in a pair of your jeans

rik on January 14, 2016 at 1:58 PM

The Miami Herald is reporting that the GOP-approved, Spanish-language version of the SOTU response speech differed in some very significant ways from the English-language version.

The English-language version said we must secure our borders and stop illegal immigration.

The Spanish-language version said we must enact a legislative solution that will “offer a permanent and humane solution to those who live in the shadows” — i.e., amnesty.

Un-f*cking-believable how the backstabbing GOPe thought they were going to get away with talking out of both sides of their corrupt mouths.

And they wonder why Trump’s numbers are so high.

AZCoyote on January 14, 2016 at 2:00 PM

Trump supporters aren’t smart enough to come in out of the cold. Most won’t show up at a caucus, and a substantial fraction will be confused when they don’t see a voting booth and THEN go home. He ain’t winning Iowa.

Darin on January 14, 2016 at 12:28 PM

I’m in the observer category this campaign… I just don’t want HIllary. I like Rubio most. But he is lingering in the teens, if that, so I am just watching…

And I think the passion is there for Trump. And I don’t think the lack of a college degree makes it impossible to figure out how to Caucus. Trump will have his crowds out to vote.

The unknown is if the churches in Iowa come together against him.

And since that isn’t a natural constituency for Trump a slight loss won’t hurt his momentum at all.

I think, and I’m not pleased, although not terribly frightened either, but I believe the race is The Donald’s.

Ug. But all Democrats are totalitarians now. And Hillary is criminally insane. If we only have a choice between totalitarians, then it might as well be one that agrees with me on most things. Or at least gives lip service to it.

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 2:07 PM

The Republican Party is dead. Long live the Libertarian Party.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

All three of your fellow Libertarians agree.

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 2:08 PM

It’s all window dressing anyway. Stupidity has been the curriculum for too long. Big Brother is just around the bend for one and all. It’s just a matter of which path gets us there later rather than sooner.

Not to worry, though. There will be gadgets galore to help keep the proles from running afoul of Big Brother’s diktats.

hillbillyjim on January 14, 2016 at 2:13 PM

The Spanish-language version said we must enact a legislative solution that will “offer a permanent and humane solution to those who live in the shadows” — i.e., amnesty.

AZCoyote on January 14, 2016 at 2:00 PM

Guillotine is very humane. Permanent, too. Don’t have no problem with it.

Rix on January 14, 2016 at 2:14 PM

I’m a scientist. It’s my job to find the theories that best explain the real world. In political philosophy, Libertarianism is the answer.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:55 PM

I guess we just got told.

The science is by God settled.

hillbillyjim on January 14, 2016 at 2:15 PM

And they wonder why Trump’s numbers are so high.

AZCoyote on January 14, 2016 at 2:00 PM

Huh, well, there is that. Can’t say I disagree. Being two faced does erode trust. But they aren’t the only ones doing it.

Trump will do some form of “amnesty” too. That is what I think his supporters don’t really understand. There is reality and there are fantasies. And Trump has played to the fantasy, but he knows full well that some kind of legal residence is in these people’s future.

However, Trump does have the emphasis and the focus right… fix the border and the system first, then see who is left here, and deal with them–after we know that is the last wave of illegals coming here enmasse.

The reality is what it is. The numbers are what they are, and the history is what it is. There will be legal residence of some type.

I actually think Rubio is the only one speaking what is really true.

But Trump may be the only one who can accomplish Rubio’s plan. But will be a form of Rubio’s plan that happens in the end.

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 2:19 PM

the criminally undervalued Cruz, who’s the frontrunner in Iowa as I write this and has certainly run the best campaign of the primary so far.

The case for Trump winning is straightforward: He’s not just ahead in 49 of 50 states, he’s surfing a wave of enthusiasm that no other GOP candidate remotely approaches.

I think that’s called a blatant contradiction.

Joseph K on January 14, 2016 at 2:22 PM

AZCoyote on January 14, 2016 at 2:00 PM

Actually you put words in their mouth. That is no more honest.

Are you against the humane part or the permanent part?

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 2:23 PM

hillbillyjim on January 14, 2016 at 2:13 PM

Big brother is here, my friend. The only question left us is:

Will it be Donald Trump who controls us, or Hillary, Sid Blumenthal and network media.

Obama was the end of history.

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 2:26 PM

When people feed on a steady diet of reality TV, they come out to see the TV star.

RayinVA on January 14, 2016 at 12:08 PM

I guess the public is too stupid for Democracy then, right Plato?

Joseph K on January 14, 2016 at 2:29 PM

I’m a scientist. It’s my job to find the theories that best explain the real world. In political philosophy, Libertarianism is the answer.

TDSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:55 PM

Thanks for admitting that you understand neither science nor politics.

Joseph K on January 14, 2016 at 2:30 PM

THIS is what the election is all about.

Jeff Sessions wrote the defining victory road map A YEAR AGO, but only one candidate read it, consulted with the author multiple times, and ran with it.

You remember Jeff — the ONLY Congressional candidate in 2014 that had NO opponents in the primary and NO opponents in the general election. Maybe he knows what Americans want to see in their elected representatives.

Read the whole thing here. Sound familiar? — now that you have seen dozens and dozens of jam-packed arenas listening to the same message.

fred5678 on January 14, 2016 at 2:30 PM

How comical the Trump-bots are on here…yet not a vote has been cast and they’re already doing their victory lap! Can’t wait to hear their whining and complaining when reality sets in….

Bob Davis on January 14, 2016 at 2:32 PM

Keep reading political philosophy, and you’ll eventually come around.

TDSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:28 PM

I’ve been reading political philosophy for 30 years. I went away.

Joseph K on January 14, 2016 at 2:32 PM

I’m a scientist. It’s my job to find the theories that best explain the real world. In political philosophy, Libertarianism is the answer.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:55 PM

A scientist? In what field?

Neitherleftorright on January 14, 2016 at 2:35 PM

Yeb! in his jam-packed “arena” with a captive audience on their lunch break at the arms factory.

versus:

a real arena last night.

Game over. Fold the tents. Dump the ice coolers. Go home, Yeb.

fred5678 on January 14, 2016 at 2:53 PM

Keep reading political philosophy, and you’ll eventually come around.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:28 PM

This reminds me of a super-lefty acquaintance. When I pointed out the utter failure of countries who try Marxism, he replied, “But the theory is so beautiful!”

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 2:56 PM

Remember when Santorum & Huckabee had all the big crowds before winning IA? me neither

OrthodoxJew

And neither did anyone else.

xblade on January 14, 2016 at 3:01 PM

Bob Davis on January 14, 2016 at 2:32 PM

Trump haters are even more amusing. They are all chicken to name a candidate.

They’ve got nothing.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 3:01 PM

…reality sets in….

Bob Davis on January 14, 2016 at 2:32 PM

Indeed.

fred5678 on January 14, 2016 at 3:04 PM

I can’t wait to see Trump and Rand debate tonight. …Oh wait, my bad, Rand won’t be there cause no one likes him. I forgot. Never mind.

The Notorious G.O.P on January 14, 2016 at 3:04 PM

Trump haters are even more amusing. They are all chicken to name a candidate.

They’ve got nothing.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 3:01 PM

They support Hillary.

The Notorious G.O.P on January 14, 2016 at 3:05 PM

They are all chicken to name a candidate.

They’ve got nothing.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 3:01 PM

Some of them rotate between the other GOP candidates as often as Bernie Sanders changes his bright red boxers…

Athos on January 14, 2016 at 3:06 PM

This reminds me of a super-lefty acquaintance. When I pointed out the utter failure of countries who try Marxism, he replied, “But the theory is so beautiful!”

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 2:56 PM

The theory is beautiful. But, it ignores human nature. That’s its fatal flaw and why it could never work.

If we were all completely rational, altruistic, and community-minded, we would share everything, only use what we absolutely needed, and give our full efforts to whatever the community needed, and there would never be want, never be class divisions, etc.

Of course, you’d end up with 10 people working really hard, 100 people doing a half-ass job, and 1,000 people doing nothing. Meanwhile, everyone would take, eat, use whatever they could get their hands on regardless of whether they “really needed it”.

Monkeytoe on January 14, 2016 at 3:12 PM

Actually you put words in their mouth. That is no more honest.

petunia on January 14, 2016 at 2:23 PM

Interesting…

Trump will do some form of “amnesty” too. That is what I think his supporters don’t really understand. There is reality and there are fantasies. And Trump has played to the fantasy, but he knows full well that some kind of legal residence is in these people’s future.

So you’re projecting your opinion into what Trump will do, despite his promise to deport? Oh, yeah – that whole ‘fantasy’ vs ‘reality’ thing. Deporting isn’t feasible and is ‘fantasy’ while legalizing illegal immigrants is ‘reality’. Trump is just lying in order to get votes?

However, Trump does have the emphasis and the focus right… fix the border and the system first, then see who is left here, and deal with them–after we know that is the last wave of illegals coming here enmasse.

Sounds far closer to Ted Cruz’s plan than the revised ‘I need to distance myself from Gang of 8’ Rubio plan which still advocates the GOPe preferred handling for illegal immigrants: amnesty for illegals. And everyone knows that Rubio tells the truth – just like how he ran for the Senate seat opposing any amnesty for illegals and then became Chuck Schumer’s best friend for amnesty.

Athos on January 14, 2016 at 3:15 PM

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 2:56 PM

schemer a schnook. He comes here on his lunch break to troll. What a loser life. I haven’t taken a lunch break since I dropped out of HS to start my own biz when I was 15. Lunch breaks are for putzi

rik on January 14, 2016 at 3:17 PM

Trump haters are even more amusing. They are all chicken to name a candidate.

They’ve got nothing.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 3:01 PM

Come on. They have this guy, at a minimum.

Schadenfreude on January 14, 2016 at 3:17 PM

Rotflmao.

TDSchemer is a scientologist

SpongePuppy on January 14, 2016 at 3:38 PM

The GOP candidates are frauds, so Trump decided to outfraud them all. It is a good idea.

The only candidates who actually believe what they say are Sanders and Paul.

everdiso on January 14, 2016 at 3:40 PM

Trump will certainly win. Democracy is great!

DarkCurrent on January 14, 2016 at 3:44 PM

Bill Mitchell [email protected] 3h3 hours ago
Trump leads Ted Cruz by an astounding 32 points in new Morning Consult National Poll: 42-10

Carson is second actually…

Trump 42%
Carson 12%
Cruz 10%
Rubio 9%
Bush 5%

anotherJoe on January 14, 2016 at 3:49 PM

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:00 PM

I remember when you relied on betting markets telling us that Trump wouldn’t win.

Do you intend to change strategy yet?

And the red-pill-munching retards come out of the woodwork.

TBSchemer on January 14, 2016 at 1:14 PM

Nope.

Best Rand Promoter Ever.

nobar on January 14, 2016 at 3:49 PM

Monkeytoe on January 14, 2016 at 3:12 PM

Yes, you’ve got it. Beautiful theories that fail in practice are rampant on the Left.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 3:50 PM

Schadenfreude on January 14, 2016 at 3:17 PM

Heh, nice dig-up.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 4:01 PM

Bob Davis on January 14, 2016 at 2:32 PM

Trump haters are even more amusing. They are all chicken to name a candidate.

They’ve got nothing.

Meremortal on January 14, 2016 at 3:01 PM

No Trump hater here, but I will name my candidate: Ted Cruz.

Satisfied??

Bob Davis on January 14, 2016 at 4:38 PM

Is this a pride thing for Trump, i.e. he wants to prove that he can win the nomination unconventionally, through sheer charisma, without spending the giant sums that people like Jeb Bush have wasted? Why would you leave anything on the table when you’re this close to winning a major-party nomination?

LOL. Because conventional wisdom among political consultants and pundits says that negative advertising closes the deal, eh?

What if people are sick to the gills of negative advertising, AP? And what if Trump has picked up on that?

lineholder on January 14, 2016 at 4:45 PM

Cute acronym, though. GOPe, very clever. Not.

RayinVA on January 14, 2016 at 12:12 PM

Yeah, I prefer GrOPe.

earlgrey on January 14, 2016 at 4:50 PM

And then he said something interesting. “Why would a person stand in line for seven hours [to attend a rally] and then not want to go into a voting booth? It takes 10 minutes.

Well a number of the people going to the rallies may well just be gawkers. Same way a lot of liberals watched duck dynasty because they were amazed at the spectacle rather than agreeing with it.

I’m not saying that’s definitely the case here, but it may be.

Tlaloc on January 14, 2016 at 6:19 PM

I’ve come around to the conclusion that others have occasionally drawn over the past four months, Trump doesn’t really want to win the nomination. His, like Bernie Sanders’s, was a vanity run.

Picking up a state or two, sucking all the oxygen out of the Republican primary, being the center of attention, becoming a human monkey wrench in the works, those were the goals that attracted Trump to the race. I don’t think he thought in his wildest dreams he would be in the position he is now. First and foremost he is an entertainer and a businessman. And throwing tens of millions of his own dollars at this lark does not make good business sense for him.

Look, my pet issue is immigration and I am truly eternally grateful to him for making it such a central issue in the campaign. But eventually he will grow bored with his Running For President Toy and cast it aside.

Lamont Cranston on January 14, 2016 at 6:59 PM

Right now, my odds would be 65% Trump, 25% Cruz and 10% field.

Trump wins Iowa, 90% Trump, 7% Cruz, 3% field.

Cruz wins Iowa, 45% Trump, 40% Cruz, 15% field.

KMav on January 14, 2016 at 7:31 PM

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