Poll: Kasich now tied for second with Cruz in New Hampshire as Rubio drops to fourth

posted at 2:01 pm on January 11, 2016 by Allahpundit

That Rubio surge is coming annnnny minute now.

In fairness, he’s only two points behind Kasich and Cruz in a poll with a margin of error of 4.8 percent, so he’s effectively tied for second. On the other hand, how many Rubio fans are excited to find him battling John Effin’ Kasich for center-right votes less than a month from primary day?

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Just a third of likely voters overall have settled on their choice, although 46 percent of Trump’s fans say they’re locked in. If they’re telling the truth then he already has more firmly committed voters as a share of the wider GOP electorate (14.7 percent) then any other candidate has leaners. This poll may be underestimating Trump’s support too, as it was conducted by phone rather than online. Remember, there’s a theory out there that online polls, where Trump tends to do better, are a more accurate measure of his support because they afford anonymity to people who secretly support him but are afraid to admit that to a pollster.

On the other end of the spectrum, check out Jeb Bush plunging here to just four percent of the vote, tied with Rand Paul for seventh place in Bush’s big state and putting him just a point ahead of also-ran Carson. His favorable rating? 39/47, when every other contender in the state is at least +11 in favorability. To be fair to Jeb, other recent polls of New Hampshire look nothing like this: The four other surveys taken in NH since New Year’s had him at 10, 9, 12, and 9 percent. On the other hand, as Nate Silver notes, Jeb has been polling around nine percent in New Hampshire for months. Even if you toss out today’s Monmouth poll and use the other recent data instead, there’s no real sign of any Jeb comeback.

But back to Rubio. He showed slight improvement in NH in the last poll taken last year and the first two taken this year, ticking up a couple of points in each to 15 percent. But this makes three in a row now where he’s failed to match that number, notching nine percent(!) in a NH1/Reach poll a few days ago and 14 percent in a more recent WSJ/NBC survey before today’s 12 percent figure in Monmouth. Hard to draw any firm conclusions from differences that slight from poll to poll — except for the fact that the Rubio surge in New Hampshire hasn’t arrived yet and seems less likely to arrive the more durable Christie’s and Kasich’s numbers look. Each of them has topped 10 percent in three of the last five polls of New Hampshire, per RCP’s tracker. Rubio does have better favorables (56/28) than Christie (50/36) and Kasich (43/32) do, but his unfavorable rating is up nine points since November, the biggest gain of any contender there except Ben Carson. In fact, here’s your amazing poll trivia of the day. If you believe Monmouth, Rubio’s favorable rating in moderate, mavericky New Hampshire is now just a shade worse than … Ted Cruz’s. No foolin’.

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Cruz’s net favorables have gone from +14 in November to +33 now, the best of anyone in the field. And this isn’t just a “New Hampshire thing”; as I noted on Friday, it’s true nationally among Republicans as well. If you’re a Rubio fan, the counterspin to this poll is easy: We’re not really going to know who’s ahead in New Hampshire until the first week of February, after the aftershocks of the Iowa result and of the big endorsements to come (including Romney and McCain for Rubio, perhaps?) have been felt in NH. Fair enough, but between his current poll standing and his personal favorability, Cruz has a nonzero chance of winning this state too if he wins Iowa. Rubio fans could live with that so long as their guy finishes first among the other center-right candidates, believing that that sets him up for a long run for the nomination against Cruz in the months ahead. But coming back to win against someone who’s won Iowa and New Hampshire, which has never happened in a contested modern GOP primary, would be astounding, even if the winner of those two states is someone as loathed by party leaders as Cruz is.

Here’s Rubio defending his 2004 bill in the Florida state legislature calling for in-state tuition for illegals. Exit question: What if, against all expectations, Rubio finishes behind Christie and Kasich in New Hampshire? Is he done?


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Comment pages: 1 2

Carson went down like the Hindenburg after the crazy childhood stories became widely known.

cimbri on January 11, 2016 at 5:04 PM

What if, against all expectations, Rubio finishes behind Christie and Kasich in New Hampshire? Is he done?

I surely hope so….sick of seeing him!

TRUMP 2016

Pragmatic on January 11, 2016 at 5:06 PM

Slightly O.T. The structural problems of polling have only gotten worse for two reasons. Polling bias is showing up in the screening questions(PPP is the worse)to the extent it is now affecting basic questions.(likability, voting past etc.)People not responding to political polling surveys.( No people, no poll)Polling outfits now are going to combo methods(NBC-Survey Monkey is the best known.)It’s like putting a ban-aid on a sucking chest wound. Still looks nice, but the poor sob is still bleeding out. The information gathered is not accurate because the time frame is too long.(There are serious problems with online surveys which won’t be solved until the technology to protect private information matures.)Right now firing a shotgun at a moving target at 100 meters would be more accurate.

flackcatcher on January 11, 2016 at 5:10 PM

Poll: Kasich now tied for second with Cruz in New Hampshire as Rubio drops to fourth

Now for the salient headline:

Polls: Trump takes lead in Iowa, doubles field in New Hampshire

Younggod on January 11, 2016 at 5:12 PM

I am a card carrying member of the Kasich-haters club.

What do I win?

portlandon on January 11, 2016 at 3:30 PM

A date with r2b

katy the mean old lady on January 11, 2016 at 5:33 PM

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

If he gets 4th or better, he’ll stay in the race. He must be stopped.

talkingpoints on January 11, 2016 at 5:49 PM

Can Marco Rubio Even Win a Primary?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3368499/posts

Sandbear on January 11, 2016 at 6:01 PM

Sandbear on January 11, 2016 at 6:01 PM
Yes. Once past the early two, Rubio will have some major advantages. Much depends on whom is left after Iowa and N.H. The smaller the field, the more the Rubio will pick up from the campaigns that have left.(support, money, voters etc.)Well, that’s what the ‘smart people’ are saying. The real question is how much. I mean we are moving in real time after all. What we do not see is the Rubio ground game in action, or what he is doing past the early two. People in the comments sections on this blog do not like Rubio, so it blinds them to how good a campaigner he is. Primary elections are all about getting your supporters to the ballot box. Both Rubio and Cruz proved that in state wide elections they can get their people out. Cruz is proving again in Iowa how formidable a campaigner he is.(To put bluntly, he is making Trump look like fool.) Rubio’s team is gambling on South Carolina and the SEC primary, that his ground game will overpower all others. So the answer is yes, but things could change.

flackcatcher on January 11, 2016 at 6:33 PM

…a fool….(sigh)

flackcatcher on January 11, 2016 at 6:42 PM

I don’t think Sen. Rubio can carry Florida.

Cindy Munford on January 11, 2016 at 6:46 PM

Exit answer: You’re not John McLaughlin, but you do a pretty good impersonation.

locomotivebreath1901 on January 11, 2016 at 7:35 PM

So in other words…The so called “center-right” folks are going the knee-cap each other’s candidate. Sort of the reversal of fortune I pointed out some time ago.

It is the “establishment” wing that is playing the role of the “conservative” wing.

William Eaton on January 11, 2016 at 8:08 PM

Wize Latuna Terryanneonline hardest hit.

Looks like we will just build a wall to keep the blood suckers out.

SpongePuppy on January 11, 2016 at 9:14 PM

A very distant second in a state like NH has zero relevance for a liberal like Kasich. Where could he leverage that in the near term states that follow? No where.

Carnac on January 11, 2016 at 11:15 PM

What we do not see is the Rubio ground game in action, or what he is doing past the early two. People in the comments sections on this blog do not like Rubio, so it blinds them to how good a campaigner he is. Primary elections are all about getting your supporters to the ballot box. Both Rubio and Cruz proved that in state wide elections they can get their people out.

We’ll see just how good Rubio is but there’s not much to be said for right now. I remember an article here or on American Thinker mentioning Rubio’s poor ground game in the early states – he did a few fundraisers then relied on advertisements rather than meet and greets to get voters excited.

I don’t like Rubio, I don’t think he’s trustworthy, but even if I’m biased… there is something to his short attention span. He’s skipped votes, important votes that he should have attended, and he has written off his Senate career already because he can’t work with everyone else. It’s not like he really distinguished himself, other than that terrible Gang of Eight bill and drinking water… what has the man done?

I also find his success in Florida more imagined than real. He beat a RINO who went off the deep end by playing up Tea Party credentials which in hindsight were not real. Those promises he made during that election were quickly broken, so thinking he still carries the strength and support from that victory to a larger field is a bit rose colored.

Ukiah on January 12, 2016 at 9:06 AM

THE GREAT DANGER IS KASICH.

John Kasich has been swayed to the “liberal evangelical” positions on “social justice,” etc. He is the most dangerous Republican in the race. He would finish what Obama started.

STOP KASICH!

Whitewolf7070 on January 12, 2016 at 12:42 PM

don’t fret. At the brokered convention, the delegates will award their votes to Jeb or Marco. That is how a 3% guy can win the nomination. Not by popular support, but by insiders doing what insiders do inside.

HugoDrax on January 11, 2016 at 2:19 PM

That has been their plan all along.

bluefox on January 12, 2016 at 12:51 PM

STOP KASICH!

Whitewolf7070 on January 12, 2016 at 12:42 PM

A mini dictator in Ohio and uses the shell game taxing everything he can.

bluefox on January 12, 2016 at 12:54 PM

Comment pages: 1 2