New Hampshire: Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie 11, Kasich 11, Bush 10, Cruz 10

posted at 9:21 pm on January 6, 2016 by Allahpundit

Is this a good poll or a bad one for Marco Rubio? The good news is he’s up four points and remains in second place in the state with a bunch of big endorsements no doubt set to happen later this month. The bad news — terrible news, really — is that the “moderate” lane is more jammed up than ever. Kasich is also up since last month, from eight points to 11. And don’t look now but Jeb Bush has crept back into double digits, tied with Ted Cruz. Between them, Rubio, Christie, Bush, and Kasich combine for 47 percent of the vote, but because each of them is showing signs of promise, none of them has an incentive to scale back or drop out in order to clear the lane for one of the other four.

There’s every reason to believe this RINO logjam will persist right up to election day unless a major endorsement somehow shakes something loose. Without that, it’s difficult to see how Trump loses New Hampshire. He has the highest percentage (68 percent) among top-tier candidates of voters who say they’re firmly committed to voting for him, which stands to reason given that he occupies his own distinct niche vis-a-vis the rest of the field. I think the donor class can tolerate Trump winning NH so long as some establishmentarian like Rubio or Christie finishes a strong second. Increasingly, though, it seems like not even that consolation prize will happen; we might end up with Trump taking 30 percent of the vote next month while Rubio, Christie, and maybe even Bush or Kasich carve out 12-18 percent apiece. That’s the true establishment nightmare scenario, where everyone moves on to South Carolina with Cruz having won Iowa, Trump having won New Hampshire, and the moderate niche still unsettled and divided. I still think Rubio will emerge from that pack, but the longer it takes, the weaker he’ll look and the longer it’ll take him to catch up in delegates.

The establishment split is what’s keeping Trump in such a good position. In a pared down field of the candidates generally viewed as the top 3 in the overall race Trump would lead Rubio by just 2 points, 36/34, with Cruz back at 19%. And Trump trails Rubio 52/40 and Cruz 46/39 in head to head match ups while leading Bush just 46/45. But as long as Rubio and Christie and Kasich and Bush are all in the race they’re splitting the vote enough to let Trump’s passionate base give him a big lead.

The candidates with the biggest gains since our last poll in early December are Bush (up 5 points from 5% to 10%), Rubio (up 4 points from 11% to 15), and Kasich (up 3 points from 8% to 11%). Bush and Kasich have also had notable gains in their favorability ratings. Bush has gone from negative territory last month (38/45) to positive ground (44/42). It may not sound like much but it’s been a long time since we found Bush with an above water favorability anywhere. Kasich’s improved from 38/35 to 46/30.

How tough would things be for Trump in New Hampshire if he had to face Rubio — or Cruz — head to head? Pretty tough:

h2h

Both Rubio and Cruz win the support of every other candidate’s voters against Trump except for Rubio losing to him among Cruz supporters — but only narrowly, and he still wins overall by double digits. There’s no doubt looking at those numbers that Trump is benefiting tremendously from a divided field in NH. In light of that, I’d be curious to see some head-to-head polls between him and Cruz in blue-state primaries that will be held later this spring. The going theory is that Trump, with his coalition of “radical moderates,” might clean up in more moderate states, but I’m not so sure looking at this. If every other candidate’s supporters prefer Cruz to him, why wouldn’t that also be true in states beyond New Hampshire? And don’t forget, if it does eventually come down to Cruz and Trump, Cruz will benefit as establishmentarians grudgingly come around to backing him as the least bad choice for nominee. That’ll affect some centrists who otherwise might be cool to him. It’s hard to imagine Trump easily defeating Cruz head to head, but I can sort of imagine Cruz easily defeating Trump.

In fact, in lieu of an exit question, have a look at this new NBC/SurveyMonkey national data on who wins the race for second choice among various candidates’ supporters. Among Trump’s fans, it’s Cruz in a landslide over Rubio. Among Rubio’s fans? Cruz by double digits. Among Carson’s supporters? Cruz tied with Trump. Among the combined supporters of Christie, Bush, and Fiorina? Cruz by two over Rubio. He’s very well positioned to build support as other candidates drop out, especially if Trump folds up his tent. In the past I’ve questioned whether Trump fans, who aren’t dogmatic conservatives, will really break for Mr. Tea Party as a second choice, but that’s clearly the case in New Hampshire per PPP’s data. No contest here, with Cruz topping Rubio among Trump fans, 37/10:

2nd

The only sure thing about the primary right now, it seems, is that Ted Cruz is going to be in this race for many months to come. I’m not sure that’s true of anyone else in the field, Trump included.


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Comments

AP, you’re asking for it with that last paragraph. Lol

Trump supporters will make you run from your own blog!

Cruz will be lucky if he makes once Don is done with him. The guy is an act trying to make daddy proud.

Trump 2016

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on January 6, 2016 at 9:28 PM

Cruz will be in this race long if he wins IA. If not its full speed trump

OrthodoxJew on January 6, 2016 at 9:28 PM

Well, that looks bad for Cruz

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 9:29 PM

It’s all about Iowa. If Cruz kicks the crap out of Trump in Iowa, you’ll see huge movement in NH for the following week.

It’s entirely possible that Rubio, Cruz or Christie gain huge momentum in NH if they finish second to Mr. Fake Conservative Trump.

AYNBLAND on January 6, 2016 at 9:29 PM

Trump hasn’t opened his wallet yet.

Keep that in mind.

artist on January 6, 2016 at 9:30 PM

Is this a good poll or a bad one for Marco Rubio?

That’s the question on everyone’s mind: How does this poll effect the guy who’s not going to win a single state.

Magicjava on January 6, 2016 at 9:31 PM

Trumptastic.

VorDaj on January 6, 2016 at 9:32 PM

I don’t think Mr Trump has even begun to open up his bag of tricks yet.

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 9:32 PM

Trump hasn’t opened his wallet yet.

Keep that in mind.

artist on January 6, 2016 at 9:30 PM

He has, but just this week. Your point is valid, just you are two days late to make it that solid.

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 9:33 PM

I guess they don’t have corn in New Hampshire?

celt on January 6, 2016 at 9:34 PM

TRUMP/JUDGE MOORE 2016!

fossten on January 6, 2016 at 9:36 PM

cruz in sixth place is why they are spazing out.

cruz has NO CHANCE of winning.

Garyinaz66 on January 6, 2016 at 9:37 PM

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 9:33 PM

I consider that pocket change.

When he opens his wallet the entire GOPe field will know about it.

artist on January 6, 2016 at 9:37 PM

Trump should promise New Hampshire the best ski resort evah!

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 9:37 PM

No Celt, duh! ;)

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on January 6, 2016 at 9:38 PM

As the polls get closer and closer to IA and NH you know that they will try and do whatever they can to depress turnout.

Does anyone really believe that Kasich is at 11 (lol) and ¡Yeb! is at 10?

If this poll is somehow accurate it is bad for Cruz; he should be in 2nd.

Redstone on January 6, 2016 at 9:38 PM

Its TRUMP all the way.

Hillary will get dismembered very shortly when Trump locks this up.

SpongePuppy on January 6, 2016 at 9:39 PM

The data shows that Paul’s voters are the most unshakeable in the race. You’ll never get most Paul voters to support any Republican but Paul.

TBSchemer on January 6, 2016 at 9:43 PM

The data shows that Paul’s voters are the most unshakeable in the race. You’ll never get most Paul voters to support any Republican but Paul.

TBSchemer on January 6, 2016 at 9:43 PM

No, what the data shows is that the Paul supporters are the most psychotically delusional white supremacists who are incapable of finding their way to reality.

oscarwilde on January 6, 2016 at 9:46 PM

“I wasn’t on the Rubio train until conservative rock stars Trey Gowdy, Tim Scott, and Jason Chavetz (sp) made their endorsements”

-said no one ever

newarker on January 6, 2016 at 9:47 PM

How tough would things be for Trump in New Hampshire if he had to face Rubio — or Cruz — head to head? Pretty tough:

Who cares. Is it going to be a head to head match up in NH?

xblade on January 6, 2016 at 9:48 PM

I consider that pocket change.

When he opens his wallet the entire GOPe field will know about it.

artist on January 6, 2016 at 9:37 PM

Well, if you do not care about honesty, go your route, 24 million in 1 month is no pocket change no matter which candidate you are.

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 9:49 PM

Can’t be. During the fall, Allahpundit assured the Hot Air community that the center right is come together.

newarker on January 6, 2016 at 9:52 PM

24 million is indeed pocket change for Trump. at any given time he could decide to spend 10 times that much. no problemo.

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 9:54 PM

The data shows that Paul’s voters are the most unshakeable in the race. You’ll never get most Paul voters to support any Republican but Paul.

TBSchemer on January 6, 2016 at 9:43 PM

Did you hear about his latest rally, nobody else did either.

RickB on January 6, 2016 at 9:55 PM

“Perhaps its time to sober up and start behaving yourselves”. TBSchemer on Dec. 10th @ 7:50 am.

Indiana Jim on January 6, 2016 at 9:56 PM

Two things about the two polls cited:

1) In the NH PPP poll, every Trump fan’s favorite second choice, Ted Cruz, has actually dropped 3 points since the last PPP poll.

2) While making a lot of everyone’s second choice in the latest NBC/Survey Monkey poll, why not note everybody’s first choice?

Trump 35%

Cruz 18%

Rubio 13% (Cruz and Rubio combined don’t reach Trump’s 35%)

Carson 9%

Bush 6%

etc etc

Otherwise, interesting analysis.

de rigueur on January 6, 2016 at 9:58 PM

The bad news — terrible news, really — is that the “moderate” lane is more jammed up than ever. Kasich is also up since last month, from eight points to 11. And don’t look now but Jeb Bush has crept back into double digits, tied with Ted Cruz. Between them, Rubio, Christie, Bush, and Kasich combine for 47 percent of the vote, but because each of them is showing signs of promise, none of them has an incentive to scale back or drop out in order to clear the lane for one of the other four.

ROFL. The GOPe with their splitter strategy is what got so many candidates into the race to begin with….and now they may be hoist in their own petard.

Pure hubris!

lineholder on January 6, 2016 at 10:01 PM

AllaP is pretending that NH might be the start of something but

REMEMBER – NH is traditionally the establishment stronghold. Romney won with 30% and HUNTSMAN got 17%. NH is supposed to be squish GOPe central.

Trump winning 30% in NH (and it will be more – mark it and book it) is no small feat.

NH will be the establishment high water mark. It’s all downhill from there. It’s their last stand and their ONLY stand.

Newt clobbered Romney in SC. Huntsman didn’t register at all.

Sober analysis – like Carson’s ex campaign manager – sees Trump sweeping his way to the convention.

BoxHead1 on January 6, 2016 at 10:02 PM

24 million is indeed pocket change for Trump. at any given time he could decide to spend 10 times that much. no problemo.

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 9:54 PM

He could spend 100 times as much, meaning a retard would argue that $240 million spent in 1 month on advertisements is pocket change.
Hell, maybe he could borrow 24 billion dollars and spend 2.4 billion in one month on advertisements, and then that would be chump change, because, well he could have spent 24 billion!

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 10:04 PM

de rigueur on January 6, 2016 at 9:58 PM

But you didn’t compare Trump in a one on one without the other losers so it doesn’t mean anything!!!!!!! :)

Barred on January 6, 2016 at 10:04 PM

Between them, Rubio, Christie, Bush, and Kasich combine for 47 percent of the vote, but because each of them is showing signs of promise, none of them has an incentive to scale back or drop out in order to clear the lane for one of the other four.

Turrible. NH is Rubio’s. The whole Universe knows it.

Christie and anything trapped in his gravity well should drop. For the team. For the cause. For the children.

And why are we still seeing Carlsons and Fiorinas and everything? Go home. You’re getting in the way and no longer adorable.

#Cruz2016

Axe on January 6, 2016 at 10:07 PM

especially if Trump folds up his tent

Are we STILL saying things like this? ^ STILL?! Sheesh. Talk about wishful thinking… or is it willful ignorance?

Aslans Girl on January 6, 2016 at 10:10 PM

ROFL. The GOPe with their splitter strategy is what got so many candidates into the race to begin with….and now they may be hoist in their own petard.

Pure hubris!

lineholder on January 6, 2016 at 10:01 PM

It is sweet, sweet Schadenfreude to see the GOPe tasting their own poison for a change!

Aslans Girl on January 6, 2016 at 10:12 PM

I hope you’re smiling, AP, I know I am :)

jersey taxpayer on January 6, 2016 at 10:15 PM

Aslans Girl on January 6, 2016 at 10:12 PM

Indeed.

jersey taxpayer on January 6, 2016 at 10:16 PM

he doesn’t have to spend 240 million every single month, just in the months that count. strategically. and I appreciate you calling me a retard. I find that very endearing.
the point is he has plenty of money to spend when he needs to. and he doesn’t have to beg for any more.

douchebag.

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 10:19 PM

Friggin’ yuge…

Oxymoron on January 6, 2016 at 10:25 PM

he doesn’t have to spend 240 million every single month, just in the months that count. strategically. and I appreciate you calling me a retard. I find that very endearing.
the point is he has plenty of money to spend when he needs to. and he doesn’t have to beg for any more.

douchebag.

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 10:19 PM

I did not call you a retard. Did you read it that way? Because I wrote it such that a retard would then do something. So, if you took it that I was naming you specifically or as part of a group, I take it that you would still argue that Trump spending 240 million dollars in a single month would still be considered pocket change? Is this true?

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 10:31 PM

No, what the data shows is that the Paul supporters are the most psychotically delusional white supremacists who are incapable of finding their way to reality.

oscarwilde on January 6, 2016 at 9:46 PM

No, what that comment shows is that oscarwilde is an intellectually lazy douche whose “argument” amounts to resorting to the baseless “racism” accusation in absence of any legitimate thought Unworthy of the name he borrows for this site.

fitzfong on January 6, 2016 at 10:33 PM

he doesn’t have to spend 240 million every single month, just in the months that count. strategically. and I appreciate you calling me a retard. I find that very endearing.
the point is he has plenty of money to spend when he needs to. and he doesn’t have to beg for any more.

douchebag.

wolly4321 on January 6, 2016 at 10:19 PM

I did not call you a retard. Did you read it that way? Because I wrote it such that a retard would then do something. So, if you took it that I was naming you specifically or as part of a group, I take it that you would still argue that Trump spending 240 million dollars in a single month would still be considered pocket change? Is this true?

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 10:31 PM

And one more thing, I very explicitly stated the time frame as a singular month. In one month. Not each month, which is what I would have had to have written for you to read it as more than a singular expenditure.

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 10:33 PM

REMEMBER – NH is traditionally the establishment stronghold. Romney won with 30% and HUNTSMAN got 17%. NH is supposed to be squish GOPe central.

BoxHead1 on January 6, 2016 at 10:02 PM

Immigration and islamic terrorism have made 2016 a different kind of year. Trump is saying what many feel, even in New Hampshire.

bw222 on January 6, 2016 at 10:47 PM

He could spend 100 times as much, meaning a retard would argue that $240 million spent in 1 month on advertisements is pocket change.
Hell, maybe he could borrow 24 billion dollars and spend 2.4 billion in one month on advertisements, and then that would be chump change, because, well he could have spent 24 billion!

Constitutionalist on January 6, 2016 at 10:04 PM

What the hell is your problem right2bright?

NWConservative on January 6, 2016 at 11:39 PM

Does anyone really believe that Kasich is at 11 (lol) and ¡Yeb! is at 10?

If this poll is somehow accurate it is bad for Cruz; he should be in 2nd.

Redstone on January 6, 2016 at 9:38 PM

I could believe it. All the “nothing” candidates have been throwing everything they have at New Hampshire. Outside of NH, though, they have nothing.

The field will clear quickly once we’re past Florida. If Trump wins NH and Florida, he wins the nomination. I’d love to see him take Iowa and South Carolina too, but those are more icing on the cake.

Doomberg on January 7, 2016 at 1:31 AM

NH will be the establishment high water mark. It’s all downhill from there. It’s their last stand and their ONLY stand.

BoxHead1 on January 6, 2016 at 10:02 PM

Florida will really be the last stand, especially for Rubio. If Trump takes it, the nomination is his.

It’s amazing to me that even at this late date, anti-Trumpers still seem to hold a belief that Trump is somehow going to just magically collapse in a puff of smoke despite having been the frontrunner for six straight months. It’s near magical thinking.

Doomberg on January 7, 2016 at 1:37 AM

We need instant run-off voting for primaries.

Tony82 on January 7, 2016 at 1:47 AM

New Hampshire is the tool of the Establishment. If we let NH pick our candidate, we’ll lose.

K. Hobbit on January 7, 2016 at 5:17 AM

It’s all about Iowa.

AYNBLAND on January 6, 2016 at 9:29 PM

That’s what GOP nominees Huckabee and Santorum told me.

Younggod on January 7, 2016 at 6:29 AM

The data shows that Paul’s voters are the most unshakeable in the race. You’ll never get most Paul voters to support any Republican but Paul.

TBSchemer on January 6, 2016 at 9:43 PM

Those are six stubborn dudes.

Younggod on January 7, 2016 at 6:31 AM

If we let NH pick our candidate, we’ll lose.

K. Hobbit on January 7, 2016 at 5:17 AM

If we let Rubio blow his nose, his head will collapse.

Younggod on January 7, 2016 at 6:39 AM

If every other candidate’s supporters prefer Cruz to him, why wouldn’t that also be true in states beyond New Hampshire?

Because people in New Hampshire are nuts ?

deadrody on January 7, 2016 at 6:52 AM

Haters going to hate.

Ted Cruz has the organization, he has the strategy, he has the widest possible lane.

The plan is in motion, the path is clear, Rubio cannot evade Gang of Eight, people will be uncomfortable with a jerk Donald, and Ted Cruz is the fallback guy for everyone, as I have been saying forever.

Think on this, Trump needs every current vote, he does not really grow, nor shrink. In most States he averages 33%. Only a three way tie gives him a chance. But Rubio is weaksauce and the establishment is realizing it. As Rubio fades down Ted Cruz goes up. His ceiling is about 60% in many cases, but in the early States it is as high as 70%.

People want a winner. As Ted cleans up in the SEC Primary people will jump in to join the winning team.

OregonPolitician on January 7, 2016 at 9:02 AM

I fear that voting for Trump is like shooting a double-barrel shotgun–one that has one of the barrels on backward.
We may well live to regret electing such a man void of moral character. But, what the heck, he tells us what we want to hear but, he knows how to make deals….that trait we so love in Boehner and Ryan….

Don L on January 7, 2016 at 9:13 AM

Rubio??? Rubio??? Do these people have TV, Internet, ???

Jpalm32 on January 7, 2016 at 9:24 AM

Trump . . . in most States he averages 33%. Only a three way tie gives him a chance. . . . People want a winner.

OregonPolitician on January 7, 2016 at 9:02 AM

And so — of course — Teddy is the real winner because he can’t even muster half of Trump’s support.

I don’t know where you get your delusions laserbrain.

Younggod on January 7, 2016 at 9:24 AM

Trump . . . we may well live to regret electing such a man

Don L on January 7, 2016 at 9:13 AM

You may be right.

But we may not live to regret electing someone else.

Younggod on January 7, 2016 at 9:27 AM

So in a nutshell, the only way the GOPe can take out Trump is for every GOPe candidate to drop out… which favors Cruz.

Either way, it’s a win-win for the electorate and a lose-lose for the Establishment.

Suits me just fine.

Turtle317 on January 7, 2016 at 10:21 AM

What the hell is your problem right2bright?

NWConservative on January 6, 2016 at 11:39 PM

Not surprising from you that you cannot discern between commenters…it speaks of your ability to analyze.

Yeah, I think you were the ones that were calling the blue hairs at the Reagan library “thugs”…

That still cracks me up, grandma and grandpa thugs…

Look at the polls, the way to the convention is through the states…so let’s look at New Hampshire…oh, Trump is near the bottom.

Sorry my little liberal friend…you liberals won’t win this time.

Keep your liberal policies up in the NW…

right2bright on January 7, 2016 at 10:44 AM

Who are the 11% that support Kasich? The guy is awful and has no path to victory.

hamiltmc on January 7, 2016 at 11:18 AM

NH will be the establishment high water mark. It’s all downhill from there. It’s their last stand and their ONLY stand.

BoxHead1 on January 6, 2016 at 10:02 PM

NH is going for Trump. No one else pulls anywhere close to him in turnout in NH.

earlgrey on January 7, 2016 at 1:59 PM