Yuge: Ted Cruz leads among likely voters in Iowa for the first time, 24/19 over Trump

posted at 1:21 pm on December 7, 2015 by Allahpundit

Not only is he leading but he’s still got that (likely) endorsement from Bob Vander Plaats coming, which will further consolidate evangelicals behind him. Ben Carson has collapsed from 32 percent two months ago to 13 percent now. How much of that remaining 13 percent will shift to Cruz once Vander Plaats weighs in?

We’re six months into the campaign and the first shot still has yet to be fired in the inevitable Trump/Cruz war. Any minute now.

ia

No fancy math needed to see what’s happening. The romance with Carson is over and the romance with Cruz — and, to a lesser extent, Rubio — has begun, and this time it’s unlikely to be a fling. Steve King’s endorsement seems to have helped Cruz a bunch: 19 percent say it made them at least a little more likely to support him. Carson led in October among evangelicals with 36 percent, 18 points better than Trump. Now Cruz leads with 30 percent, 12 points more than Trump and 14 more than Rubio. Carson is now fourth in that group. Yikes. This isn’t the only recent poll to show movement in Iowa for Cruz either; the two most recent polls of the state each had him passing Carson for second place, and Quinnipiac had him just two points behind Trump. There’s every reason to think Monmouth has the order of the race correct right now.

Here’s a result I didn’t expect. The primaries, including and especially Trumpmania, are all about immigration, right? That’s what the media (and plenty of Trump fans) keep telling me. Makes sense too that immigration would be especially important in a state where Steve King has lots of influence. And yet here’s the list of most important issues to Iowans:

imm

Don’t focus on this month’s numbers, which are obviously affected by the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. Even in July, immigration was a fourth-place issue. That helps explain how Rubio, the great amnesty heretic, can suddenly be hot on Trump’s heels there. Apart from one outlier poll last month by Gravis, which had him at 18 percent, these are the best numbers Rubio’s posted in Iowa to date — and when you combine Iowans’ second choice with their first, he’s actually ahead of Trump, 34 percent to 33. (Cruz leads with 42 percent.) Someone’s going to win a bunch of center-right votes in Iowa, just like Romney did in 2012. Right now Rubio’s the guy.

Three questions, then. One: Is this endgame for Jeb? No one expected him to win or even contend for Iowa, but the calculus for GOP donors is different if Rubio’s got a shot at Iowa than if he doesn’t. The donor class wants to stop Trump, sure, but they’re also desperate to stop Cruz; until now, I think they viewed Iowa as a lost cause, a state that would either go to Trump, Cruz, or (in the best-case scenario) Carson. Rubio pulling off a win there would be an establishment dream scenario, though, not only stopping Cruz cold and blowing up Trump but setting Rubio on track to win New Hampshire too and maybe, against all odds, race to an easy win for the nomination. Your call, Bush donors. Keep pumping the dry well you’ve got now in hopes that something will happen before NH or go all-in for Rubio in Iowa to try to make this a short race. Two: Can Trump win New Hampshire if he loses Iowa to Cruz? I think he can, although the margins do matter. If Cruz beats Trump by two points in Iowa, the media will credit Trump the next day for defying the odds and nearly pulling off a win in a state that’s supposed to only break for social conservatives. “Trump is for real!” the headlines will read. If he loses by 15 points, the media will say that Trump is a paper tiger, the Howard Dean of the 2016 GOP primaries. New Hampshirites who are undecided in the final week will read that, tell themselves that Trump has no chance in their state, and tilt towards someone else.

Three: What will the Trump/Cruz war look like?

I think that’s right. Trump can’t hit him for being too conservative; that’s suicide in a Republican primary, no matter how heterodox Trump’s own base might be. If he’s smart, he’ll dial in on Cruz’s role in the 2013 shutdown and the economic disruption that future brinksmanship by President Cruz might bring. Trump’s blue-collar fans don’t care about government shutdowns. They like Trump because he promises to make the government work better, not to slow it down or shrink it. The X factor here is whether Trump will try to cast doubt on Cruz’s eligibility by pointing out that he was born in Canada and only recently renounced his (dual) Canadian citizenship. Trump speculated about Cruz’s eligibility back in March but then clarified in September, when Cruz was applauding everything he said, that he felt confident that Cruz was a U.S. citizen under the law. Let’s see how confident he is now that he’s in second in Iowa.

Update: A belated exit question for you. Rubio’s been working hard lately to paint Ted Cruz as dangerously irresponsible on national security thanks to his vote for the USA Freedom Act. Meanwhile, terrorism and national security are among the most important issues to Iowans — and yet it’s Cruz who now leads there. Is that evidence that Rubio’s attacks haven’t gotten a lot of attention yet or that they’re simply not working?


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Comments

Cruz!

cmsinaz on December 7, 2015 at 2:57 PM

Uh oh here comes joana.

If she comes out for Cruz expect to see his numbers take a dive.

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 1:57 PM

Cloaca will do for Cruz what TDSchemer has done for Rand Paul.

Trump is right on immigration and jobs.

cloaca on December 7, 2015 at 2:04 PM

Oh God, please, no!

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 2:58 PM

I know it’s way early in the game, but a debate between a strict constitutionalist and a corrupt serial lawbreaker would be an important contrast. That’s what needs to be highlighted between the two Parties. Make the GOP something conservatives can get behind again and underscore the true nature of the Democrat Party. Let America decide on that.

Cruz vs Hillary.

anuts on December 7, 2015 at 2:58 PM

Strange, that the Japanese, who are in the midst of one of the greatest demographic implosions in the First World, are NOT resorting to mass immigration to solve their problems.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 2:52 PM

Not 100% accurate. Ethnic Japanese birthrate has declined steadily for several decades, yet their population numbers are holding steady.

Megyn Kellys Lipstick on December 7, 2015 at 3:00 PM

Either Cruz or Rubio would have a much better chance than Trump against Hillary in the general election.

Steve Z on December 7, 2015 at 2:19 PM

Who cares about the general? Cruz and Rubio are part of the GOPe.

Trump/Palin 2016!

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 3:00 PM

Trump is Cruz’n for a bruisin! Gonna be epic!

Foxhound on December 7, 2015 at 3:03 PM

Is Trump going to go nuclear on Cruz?

Is he about to become a Birther again?

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 3:04 PM

Why can’t I get the Cruz/Beck image out of my mind when they handed out balloons & teddy bears to illegals?

illegals: a threat to jobs, our economy & a real opening for islamist terrorists. A stress to our social structure & education.
Ya’ll believe they’re being vetted? & why did Texas do a push-back on syrian immigrants?

Belle on December 7, 2015 at 3:06 PM

Oh God, please, no!

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 2:58 PM

joana is all about Trump now.

She is his #1 supporter on this site.

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 3:06 PM

Red State: Eric Trump: My dad’s immigration plan includes amnesty after deportation

Eric Trump: “The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally.

Megadeath: I’m deranged, but I like it.

Hey, Trumpster Divers! Guess what? We know what Trump’s plan is. We know he wants to let back in “the good ones”. We also know that the process begins on this side of the border, and ends on the other.

Every “good one” will have to make his case from the Mexico side of the border. It’s called control. We can let 10 back in, or 10 million, but we set the criteria, we decide.

Just stop it, you smug, sanctimonious, condescending clowns. We know who we are supporting, what we are supporting, and why. Your incessant hectoring isn’t getting you anywhere. You want to do something productive, defend your own candidates version of amnesty. They all, including Cruz, have one.

Right2bright: honestly, just stop. No-one, not even the other Trumpster-Divers, takes you seriously. You are the Dick Morris of the anti-Trumper set.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 3:07 PM

Who cares about the general? Cruz and Rubio are part of the GOPe.

Trump/Palin 2016!

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 3:00 PM

When is the China caucus, is that before or after Iowa?

Or do they have a primary?

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 3:08 PM

joana is all about Trump now.

She is his #1 supporter on this site.

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 3:06 PM

If TDSchemer and Mucus get on board, we’re finished!

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 3:08 PM

I’m not anti-Trump, but at the rate he has been going what are the odds he can go almost 12 months without doing or saying something so outrageous that even his strongest supporters couldn’t defend it?

Who is more likely to make a fatal verbal error in the general…and hand the election to Hillary? Trump or Cruz?

Megyn Kellys Lipstick on December 7, 2015 at 3:15 PM

Strange, that the Japanese, who are in the midst of one of the greatest demographic implosions in the First World, are NOT resorting to mass immigration to solve their problems.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 2:52 PM

Robots.

WhirledPeas on December 7, 2015 at 3:15 PM

If TDSchemer and Mucus get on board, we’re finished!

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 3:08 PM

Marcus lost his ticket for the Trump Train, he was last seen wandering aimlessly around the station muttering “GRRRR” to no one in particular.

The Rand Express ran out of fuel a few months ago and TBS is one of the diehards pushing it across the track.

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 3:16 PM

anuts on December 7, 2015 at 2:58 PM

If this were still America, I’d agree with you. But we live in a country that could better be called American Idol. You may dismiss Hillary’s ridiculous “black voice” and empty “girl power” crap, but it WORKS on LIVs (like you wouldn’t believe). And like it or not, so does Trump’s “clown show”. He knows how to appeal to the LIVs (whose votes are, sadly, necessary) while still signaling to us that he’ll make the right choices.

That said, I don’t think Cruz is bad, but he’ll be Dracula by the time the media is done with him (see: Palin, Sarah for further reference). Trump is bigger than the media (or at least acts that way, which plus his money seems to be enough). Their usual tricks just don’t stick to him.

Rusty Nail on December 7, 2015 at 3:19 PM

At the very least this shows that (for now) the people of Iowa want an adult to be our nominee more than a liberal buffoon. It’s a small and possibly limited vote for sanity.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:20 PM

Tweet from Donald Trump within the next 12 hours:

“Can’t believe I’m losing to this guy in Iowa. Looks like Mexican Bob Hope. Never liked Bob Hope movies. Road To Singapore overrated!

Lamont Cranston on December 7, 2015 at 3:21 PM

This poll needs corroboration. It has a margin of error of 4.8%. Very strange, particularly in view of the fact that the difference between Trump and Cruz is 5%.

SheetAnchor on December 7, 2015 at 3:24 PM

Tweet from Donald Trump within the next 12 hours:

“Can’t believe I’m losing to this guy in Iowa. Looks like Mexican Bob Hope. Never liked Bob Hope movies. Road To Singapore overrated!

Lamont Cranston on December 7, 2015 at 3:21 PM

Favorite Bob Hope movie quote.

Bmore on December 7, 2015 at 3:25 PM

I worked in talk radio for most of my adult life. We create the narratives and you merely follow along. We’re not only the tail wagging the dog… you are the dog and you take a dump when we tell you to.

AYNBLAND on November 29, 2015 at 10:52 PM

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 3:34 PM

At the very least this shows that (for now) the people of Iowa want an adult to be our nominee more than a liberal buffoon. It’s a small and possibly limited vote for sanity.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:20 PM

Are you going to lie again about being a Ted Cruz supporter, or do you realize that we all know you hate the guy?

blink on December 7, 2015 at 3:30 PM

No, I’m a Rubio supporter but I sure as hell would prefer Ted Cruz over that liberal fraud Trump.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:35 PM

Is Trump going to go nuclear on Cruz?

Is he about to become a Birther again?

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 3:04 PM

Don’t predict, just quietly anticipate ;)

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 3:35 PM

I worked in talk radio for most of my adult life. We create the narratives and you merely follow along. We’re not only the tail wagging the dog… you are the dog and you take a dump when we tell you to.

AYNBLAND on November 29, 2015 at 10:52 PM

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 3:34 PM

One of several who save my posts. I stand by my comments.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:36 PM

Cruzing to victory!

Iblis on December 7, 2015 at 3:37 PM

Don’t predict, just quietly anticipate ;)

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 3:35 PM

Something tatertot is incapable of.

Did I miss that Gary in Arizona guy?

Can’t wait for his reaction to this.

cozmo on December 7, 2015 at 3:42 PM

Cruz won’t last. Trump back up… wait… he’s still up in Iowa rcp average…sorry Cruizers. Trump will roll him or just concentrate on hillary and make so many headlines nobody will remember cruz.

forgot to bid on December 7, 2015 at 3:47 PM

Ted Cruz leads among likely voters in Iowa for the first time, 24/19 over Trump

No he doesn’t.

earlgrey on December 7, 2015 at 3:49 PM

cozmo on December 7, 2015 at 3:42 PM

Wait for it. The 10,000,000th cut and paste will blister off your monitor.

Limerick on December 7, 2015 at 3:51 PM

No, I’m a Rubio supporter

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:35 PM

We create the narratives and you merely follow along.

AYNBLAND on November 29, 2015 at 10:52 PM

I stand by my comments.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:36 PM

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 3:52 PM

Is Trump going to go nuclear on Cruz?

Is he about to become a Birther again?

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 3:04 PM

Don’t predict, just quietly anticipate ;)

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 3:35 PM

I’m expecting an explosion, however this time it won’t be Carson responding.

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 3:55 PM

Dang, I only knew anybland was full of crap when she wanted to play Rambo.

cozmo on December 7, 2015 at 3:55 PM

Some simple numbers:

Monmouth Poll 10/22-10/25: Trump 18% Carson 32% Cruz 10%

Monmouth Poll 12/3-12/6: Trump 19% Carson 13% Cruz 24%

First, Trump is up a point in this poll, he hasn’t lost ground at all.

Second, Monmouth has been the outlier poll for Carson support, with only Iowa state approaching the October numbers (27%). Every other poll has Carson moving in a band from high teens to low 20’s.

The other Iowa polls put Trump’s support at mid-high 20’s, with YouGov giving Trump 30% on 11/15-11/19.

This is an outlier poll that shows whoever is being over-sampled moving from Carson to Cruz and, to a lesser extent, Rubio.

Trump by 5 in Iowa.

Let’s note that the only viable ground operations in Iowa are Jeb?, Trump, and Cruz. The others are nonentities, including Rubio, who is also a non-player in NH.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 4:02 PM

Trump doesn’t like losers.
Trump has avoiding attacking Cruz for good reason.
Cruz surge in the polls has solidified his position as a solid, serious candidate who has the support from conservatives that Trump’s campaign badly needs.
No matter how much AP wishes it to be true, Trump will not attack the person he wants as his running mate.
It’s not rocket surgery.

Buttercup on December 7, 2015 at 4:05 PM

I’m backing Ted Cruz ….

AYNBLAND on October 3, 2015 at 4:43 PM

I’m not “backing” Ted Cruz.

AYNBLAND on October 3, 2015 at 8:57 PM

I’ve always been a Rubio supporter.

AYNBLAND on November 2, 2015 at 9:13 PM

He’ll be in second place at the end of October. Bet on it.

AYNBLAND on October 6, 2015 at 6:23 PM

I stand by my comments.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:36 PM

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 4:06 PM

blink on December 7, 2015 at 3:56 PM

It would be great if you were to supply direct links to the original quotes.

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 4:08 PM

I’m expecting an explosion, however this time it won’t be Carson responding.

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 3:55 PM

I quietly anticipate an explosion ;)

DarkCurrent on December 7, 2015 at 4:16 PM

Here’s a result I didn’t expect. The primaries, including and especially Trumpmania, are all about immigration, right? That’s what the media (and plenty of Trump fans) keep telling me

AP are you really this confused? Immigration is National Security and the Economy and Jobs…and Terrorism. Seriously have you been paying attention the last few days or have you been lusting after pictures of Rubio online again.

For example if you let lots of Muslims (a reasonable percentage support Jihad) into the country that is a National Security issue, plus an immigration issue. It is also a terrorism issue. So Rubio is still in trouble…why? Because he supports letting lots of Muslim refugees and immigrants into the country, and Cruz does not.

Let me now tell you what Cruz will do next…go after Rubio and hard. He will point out that Rubio supports letting in hordes of Jihadist into the country.

That is checkmate…and there is no way Rubio can out hawk Cruz as long as Rubio holds that position, and it is doubtful anyone will believe him if he ives up that position now.

Plus why would Cruz attack Trump now? Cruz has played the game well, avoided direct battles with Trump, built his money pile up and get this…Promoted himself and his views. AP you want Cruz to attack Trump because you want Cruz to battle Trump so your beloved Rubio gains.

It is not going to happen, Cruz is going to hammer Rubio. Notice how Paul has been attacking Rubio of late. Interesting times…Perhaps Paul will endorse Cruz when he drops out?

William Eaton on December 7, 2015 at 4:19 PM

Cool war

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 4:21 PM

If Webb says ALL LIVES MATTER, I may vote for him.
AYNBLAND on October 13, 2015 at 9:53 PM

One of several who save my posts. I stand by my comments.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:36 PM

p.s. your comments are all saved by HA

p.p.s. why did Carr, who supports Trump, fire you?

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 4:24 PM

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 4:06 PM

li’l too much cowbell ringin’ in there

Axe on December 7, 2015 at 4:27 PM

William Eaton on December 7, 2015 at 4:19 PM

It won’t be Cruz attacking Trump, it will be the other way around.

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 4:30 PM

Reality check

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 4:39 PM

It won’t be Cruz attacking Trump, it will be the other way around.

Tater Salad on December 7, 2015 at 4:30 PM

NO attacking. Their managers talk more than you’ll ever know.

Trump/Cruz, for 12 years, if you can figure it out. It’s what scares the GOPe shitless.

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 4:40 PM

Jay on December 7, 2015 at 4:16 PM

Thank you for that link. This is a phone poll, with +/- 4% margin of error among Republicans.

Washington (CNN)—Donald Trump’s support continues to grow among those who say they are likely to participate in February’s Iowa presidential caucuses and Ted Cruz is on the rise while Ben Carson loses ground in the state, a new CNN/ORC Poll finds.

Overall, Trump has 33% support among likely GOP caucus goers, followed by Cruz at 20% with Carson at 16%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%. The new poll shows Trump up 8 points, Cruz up 9 [Note Rubio down by 2%], while Carson has faded by 7 points, compared with the last CNN/ORC poll, conducted in late October and early November.

The poll finds a markedly different landscape among potential GOP caucus goers than another Iowa poll released Monday by Monmouth University. The difference between the two seems to stem primarily from sampling.

The Monmouth poll interviewed a sample drawn from registered voter lists that primarily comprised those who had voted in state-level Republican primary elections in previous election years. Among those voters, Monmouth found Cruz and Rubio ahead of Trump and Carson. Among voters who were not regular GOP primary voters, however, the poll found Trump ahead, similar to the CNN/ORC poll’s finding.

The CNN/ORC Poll drew its sample from Iowa adults, asking those reached about their intention to participate in their caucus, interest in news about the caucuses, and past participation patterns to determine who would be a likely voter.

But still, Trump’s lead holds even among only those voters who express the most interest in attending the caucus or the most regular past participation in presidential caucuses. Among those in the CNN/ORC poll who say they definitely plan to attend the caucuses and are more interested in news about them than any other news story — a group which represents approximately 8% of Iowa adults — Trump’s lead grows to a 42% to 23% advantage over Cruz, with Rubio at 11% and Carson at 9%.

And among those who say they have participated in almost all of the caucuses for which they have been eligible — about 10% of Iowa adults — Trump leads 38% to 21% for Cruz, with Carson at 12% and Rubio at 11%.

One group that remains a challenge for Trump and which makes up a large share of Iowa’s usual set of Republican caucusgoers is white evangelicals. Among that group, 26% back Cruz, 24% Trump, 20% Carson and 12% Rubio. In last month’s poll, Trump trailed Carson 31% to 20% among white evangelicals, with Cruz at 15% and Rubio at 11%.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 4:41 PM

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 4:39 PM

Dude?

Reality, what reality.

This is polling.

cozmo on December 7, 2015 at 4:41 PM

Why?

blink on December 7, 2015 at 4:30 PM

He doesn’t get it. He doesn’t even understand your original post. He doesn’t understand humor, irony, sarcasm. He doesn’t know anything about AYNBLAND or his lunatic posting history. He just thinks you are a dumb Trumpette who doesn’t understand “context”, and he’s gonna get ya, all the way from smoggy China!

Red Alert!

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 4:46 PM

cozmo on December 7, 2015 at 4:41 PM

Not on the polls, just the “poll dancing”, as someone just said. Too lazy to go back and check.

Enjoy the season my friend.

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 4:56 PM

He doesn’t know anything about AYNBLAND or his lunatic posting history…

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 4:46 PM

AYNBLAND is a dude? Not sure why I assumed it was a female. Perhaps the Rubio crush but AP has one of those also so can’t go by that.

Buttercup on December 7, 2015 at 4:56 PM

Three:

As I’ve repeatedly explained to TEA Party members and to voters, Democratcare will be THE big issue at the beginning of 2016, voters will not be happy about it, or about Trump’s desire to tax Americans MORE to pay for the socialist disaster.

Cruz is the guy fighting it since elected, Democratcare”>Trump is the clown who saddled us with it.

DannoJyd on December 7, 2015 at 5:01 PM

Democratcare”>Trump is the clown who saddled us with it.

DannoJyd on December 7, 2015 at 5:01 PM

So Trump is responsible for Obamacare now?

Anti-Trumpers live in some sort of parallel universe apparently; fascinating stuff.

Did Trump bomb Pearl Harbor as well according to your alternative view of history?

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 5:08 PM

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 5:08 PM

I had the same reaction to his comment. Trump is now being blamed for Obamacare?

I would bet a million dollars that this clown is one of the GOPe biggest supporters and a big fan of McConnell and Boehner.

TheRightMan on December 7, 2015 at 5:26 PM

I’m Catholic btw but I support the notion of an American Empire.
AYNBLAND on October 21, 2015 at 9:53 PM

I was pretending to be a Cruz supporter (I do like him) to burnish my conservative bona fides as rhetorical gimmick to discuss Trump. I’ve owned up to that.
AYNBLAND on October 3, 2015 at 8:52 PM

AYNBLAND, you are a megalomaniac.

NWConservative on December 7, 2015 at 5:40 PM

AYNBLAND is a dude? Not sure why I assumed it was a female.

Buttercup on December 7, 2015 at 4:56 PM

It was the hysteria and monomania. People have the same problem with right2bright.

Democratcare”>Trump is the clown who saddled us with it.

DannyLoyd on December 7, 2015 at 5:01 PM

You were a Romney supporter last time around, weren’t you?

It must be awful when you’ve had the shine and lost it. If Tony starts talking to you again about the election, let us know.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 5:40 PM

So Trump is responsible for Obamacare now?

Anti-Trumpers live in some sort of parallel universe apparently; fascinating stuff.

Did Trump bomb Pearl Harbor as well according to your alternative view of history?

Redstone on December 7, 2015 at 5:08 PM

Yes they live in a parallel universe where Mitt Romney was a severely conservative Jesus figure and Donald Trump is an angry pagan sky god responsible for all the world’s ills.

NWConservative on December 7, 2015 at 5:42 PM

It was the hysteria and monomania. People have the same problem with right2bright.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 5:40 PM

What problem?

NWConservative on December 7, 2015 at 5:44 PM

GOP doesn’t want interventionism or databases, but is concerned on national security. Cruz is perfect fit.

TallDave on December 7, 2015 at 5:44 PM

Democratcare”>Trump is the clown who saddled us with it.

DannyLoyd on December 7, 2015 at 5:01 PM

You were a Romney supporter last time around, weren’t you?

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 5:40 PM

He was Gary Johnsons only constituent.

Buttercup on December 7, 2015 at 5:45 PM

At the very least this shows that (for now) the people of Iowa want an adult to be our nominee more than a liberal buffoon. It’s a small and possibly limited vote for sanity.

AYNBLAND on December 7, 2015 at 3:20 PM

Could this be reflective of the evangelical vote?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2015/11/02/iowa-splintered-evangelical-vote-threatens-its-influence-over-gop-caucuses/3RllrurwuYiuenbdJoqN3K/story.html

Belle on December 7, 2015 at 5:47 PM

Is that evidence that Rubio’s attacks haven’t gotten a lot of attention yet or that they’re simply not working?

I doubt that enough Iowans (or any Republican voters) are paying close enough attention to say that Rubio’s attacks have had that kind of impact (or blowback), honestly.

Cruz is just naturally seen as more hawkish, if nothing else by virtue of the fact that he’s the most conservative guy running.

The_Jacobite on December 7, 2015 at 6:05 PM

What problem?

NWConservative on December 7, 2015 at 5:44 PM

Wrong choice of words. Personally, I think both are transitioning, and are volatile because of the hormone treatments.

Joseph K on December 7, 2015 at 6:37 PM

Is that evidence that Rubio’s attacks haven’t gotten a lot of attention yet or that they’re simply not working?

It’s evidence that more and more people are realizing that Rubio is a untrustworthy asshat.

whatcat on December 7, 2015 at 7:57 PM

Overall, the current polling(such as it is) is bad for Trump. Trump’s trend lines are moving down and he has hit his ceiling in Iowa. But because the polling is using a small sample size, it is more than likely ‘poll math noise.’ Meaning Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are all bunched up at the top for now. In Iowa the likely voters are making their minds up. Good news for Cruz and Rubio, bad for Trump and Carson. If this holds, then we will see separation in the other early primaries as well. The real world is starting to push back at the phony media primary, took long enough.

flackcatcher on December 7, 2015 at 8:15 PM

blink, bud, pls quit using the “illegal immigrants” combo. It is offensive to all the legal immigrants, the only kind there are.

Trump should quit using that too.

Schadenfreude on December 7, 2015 at 2:14 PM

Something Schad and I agree on. The only correct term is “invaders”. “Illegal aliens” will suffice in a pinch, but “invaders” is definitely preferred.

Chris of Rights on December 7, 2015 at 8:45 PM

Not surprising. It’s a Monmouth University poll. Trump never fares well in Monmouth polls.This contradicts a CNN poll, which shows Trump with a big lead. But it makes for news for the MSM and a thread for HA.

bw222 on December 7, 2015 at 8:49 PM

I’ve been giving this some thought today.

These are the paths to the nomination. I think. And it’s fine to tell me I’m crazy. I just don’t see any other paths for anyone being realistic.

Trump: Easy. Just win baby. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it may be all over. If he loses both somehow, it’s over in the opposite direction. But I don’t see him losing New Hampshire. At least not yet. Ask me again in a month.

Cruz: Win Iowa. Burst Trump’s aura of invincibility. Survive his almost inevitable New Hampshire victory. Be one of two men left standing after South Carolina. Win the South. Let Trump fade into the background.

Rubio: He has the hardest path to victory. He needs Cruz to win Iowa, then needs to finish a strong second in New Hampshire (winning it is probably too much to ask), and keep it a three man race into the South. Rubio probably needs it to be a three man race for a while. He has a chance of coming out on top in a three way, but probably can’t beat either of Trump or Cruz head-to-head.

Yes, I can punch holes in all three of these, and tell you how ridiculous they are. Trump still has the easiest path to victory. Rubio’s is by far the hardest, and Cruz must must win Iowa for anyone not named Trump to be the nominee.

Oh, the path for anyone not named Trump, Rubio, or Cruz is simple too. Hope for several miracles.

Chris of Rights on December 7, 2015 at 8:55 PM

Allah, when you going to write:

UPDATE: CNN SHOWS TRUMP WITH BIG LEAD IN IOWA?

forgot to bid on December 7, 2015 at 10:06 PM

Probably not going to happen. No with Allah-punt-it.

forgot to bid on December 7, 2015 at 10:08 PM

v7_Shoe hardest hit.

Daddy Issues on December 7, 2015 at 1:28 PM

I’ll make a deal with you. I’ll stop using the term if you start calling out v7 on his right2bright level of lying. I know you formerly respected the guy for being a fighter, but now he’s fighting with the truth and reality.

Daddy Issues on December 7, 2015 at 2:35 PM

Poor kid is pretty butthurt and now totally obsessed.

Why would I be hardest hit when I am a contributor to the Cruz campaign? I would ask you where I lied but any interaction with you just produces pages and pages of psychobabble that a normal person would be embarrassed to sign their name to.

V7_Sport on December 7, 2015 at 10:10 PM

Still not posting that CNN poll as an update, why? Why not say one poll found Cruz in the lead but another found a double digit lead for Trump? Why not just make that update?

forgot to bid on December 7, 2015 at 11:26 PM

Maybe Hotair just needs a safe space like those kids at the University of Missouri. Maybe that’s why they can show Cruz 24/19 over Trump but not Trump 33/0 over Cruz.

Safe space. Find one Hotair because Trump is coming.

forgot to bid on December 7, 2015 at 11:31 PM

Have you Donald Trump supporters ever considered that some of us will not vote for Mr. Trump because we just do not trust him? He throws out platitudes and says he will make America great, and everything is yuge, and insults his own supporters. No thanks,if he is the nominee,I’d rather stay home.

searcher on December 8, 2015 at 12:03 AM

You trump haters/hillary supporters will be a small minority by the time the Trump juggernaut moves towards Nov 2016.

And have you Trump haters focus out we’ve been stabbed in the back enough by the GOP that we don’t care for hardly anything that they have to offer including Cruz? Maybe keep giving us the same crap and see how that turns out.

forgot to bid on December 8, 2015 at 8:01 AM

Still no update. What time do the hotair people get out of bed?

forgot to bid on December 8, 2015 at 8:02 AM

Allah, when you going to write:

UPDATE: CNN SHOWS TRUMP WITH BIG LEAD IN IOWA?

forgot to bid on December 7, 2015 at 10:06 PM

A poll showing Cruz in the lead was supposed to make Trump attack Cruz and AP is salivating at the prospect.
Just another poll showing Trump leading doesn’t support his meme.

Buttercup on December 8, 2015 at 10:33 AM

More crap polls…

Nradude on December 8, 2015 at 11:03 AM

Iowa seems to choose nice people, not winners.

And I am really tired of this Corn Subsidees we pay for fuel
– that gets lousy gas mileage.
– that is bad for your engine.
– that is worse for the environment.
– and makes food cost higher.

The only good is for the Iowa Corn Farmers who rake in the dough from us, the Tax Payer.

Nat George on December 8, 2015 at 11:17 PM